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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

gump said:
We're now heading that way.  How long did it take you and what route did you take?  Was there gas?
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It took us 8 1/2 hours. We left at 2 AM and because of that I-75 was not bad.

Gas is a major problem. We got lucky and found a station with gas in Marianna. This was after we went to 5 different stations between Tally and Marianna.  If you have the ability to bring a couple of full gas cans with you, I highly suggest it.

Good luck.

 
[icon] said:
Purely hypothetical, but a recent article saying that category 4/5 hit to Tampa could be worse than Katrina: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.701cf2d94881

i only post given the track toward Tampa landfall looking increasingly likely :(
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I have a crazy Uncle (by marriage) in Tampa who will not leave.... which that is up to him, but he won't let my Aunt leave without him so I hope she is going to be ok. :(

 
Uruk-Hai said:
I DON'T UNDERSTAND THE WORDS THAT ARE COMING OUT OF YOUR KEYBOARD
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The initialization of the European hurricane predictor model was screwed up for the latest run.  Terrible timing given that it's about to take its final run at Florida. 

 
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Uruk-Hai said:
I DON'T UNDERSTAND THE WORDS THAT ARE COMING OUT OF YOUR KEYBOARD
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Looks like the euro began their loop with the center of the storm and the pressure off a bit. This means the model results might be west and higher pressure than reality. 

 
2Young2BBald said:
This literally makes me queasy.  When I worked Katrina, one of the routes I had to take back to my hotel went past the temporary morgue that has been established.  It pained me every time I passed it.  God I hope Katrina like casualties do not occur with Irma.  
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If the numbers are right on people who stayed who are in the direct path, 1,800 deaths seems optimistic. 

 
Henry Ford said:
If the numbers are right on people who stayed who are in the direct path, 1,800 deaths seems optimistic. 
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It crushes me to consider that.  I was married in Key West, have family all along that set of rocks, it's my favorite place on earth.  Fortunately my family is now inland up here...but the Conch Republic has a portion that just never leave.

 
Lets say you are in a house. 10 foot storm surge comes.  Your house is an aquarium or a submarine?  Nobody seems to have a clear answer. 

 
got_nugs said:
It crushes me to consider that.  I was married in Key West, have family all along that set of rocks, it's my favorite place on earth.  Fortunately my family is now inland up here...but the Conch Republic has a portion that just never leave.
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I do mean for the whole storm - not just in Key West.  But there are probably 4-5,000 people or more in Key West right now.  If it hits as expected at Cat4, I don't know how we could reasonably expect more than 80% of those people to make it.  

Edit: do they have a giant concrete government shelter like Barbuda did?

 
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If that storm surge hits the Keys as predicted, a lot of people are going to drown. It doesn't matter how strong the structure they are in is.

 
That doesn't sound good:

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue

Satellite objective intensity estimate from Auto Dvorak went from 5 to 6 in 4 hours. Really fearing Hurricane #Irma bombs to Cat 5.

 
Uruk-Hai said:
If that storm surge hits the Keys as predicted, a lot of people are going to drown. It doesn't matter how strong the structure they are in is.
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Ya.  They need a concrete snorkel built into their storm proof bunkers.  The dude that had his kid in his arm at the gas station saying "We are gonna conch down, hold on and beat this storm" (rough paraphrase) made me sick.

 
I'm just having a hard time following this with all the intermediate updates on the people still staying in the Keys.  It's really hard to take.  

 
From Levi Cowan on Twitter, stitching together three tweets here.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/906598462409641985

Recon trace is classic of a land-disrupted storm. Tight 15-mile eye reported w/ flat wind profile. Likely to reorganize w/larger eye. #Irma

This is sort of good news b/c this process takes some time. Bad news is Irma may have enough time to complete this process and reintensify.

 
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God bless Publix. Went to get an extra loaf of bread. Bakery had plenty of fresh bread. Also picked up extra liquid carbs.  Very busy but all checkout lines open.

Stopping into pizza place with 40 craft beers on tao. Business is brisk as people steel themselves for next 48 hours with family.

..

 
A little disconcerting.  The miami radar pings have gotten successively stronger each of the last 12 minutes.  Gaining strength very fast now.  Could go 3>4>5 this pm.

 
Irma's side-eye shade towards FLA is starting to be a full-on hate stare. 

I've been divorced twice. Trust me, run..........

 
Underachievers said:
This is the most hyped storm in history, that has the potential to be the most over hyped come Monday morning.
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hoping with you (I think that's what you're doing?) that the final event hitting the mainland is a fizzle, but tell that "overhyped" stuff to the leeward islands that have already gotten historically wiped out from Irma.

and oddly little to zero info coming out of cuba about the damage there... can only imagine.

 
that live cam somebody else linked to Marathon earlier... wind has really picked up versus when they originally posted- must be one of the bands sweeping through.

 
El Floppo said:
definitely whoa. 

I assume this is something that happens when a storm is spinning the way a hurricane does? drawing water out? otherwise... this is the standard precursor to a tsunami- but no idea why there'd be a tsunami there.

anybody?
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Looks like that might be sediment deposits from the storm. Maybe the water is there but the beach is much bigger now.

 
Capella said:
We bounced. We're in savannah now and these dumb hayseeds are evacuating that city for some reason so now we have hit our first real traffic. Unreal. No problems getting out of Florida, come to Georgia and sit here.
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Better keep coming west to AZ just to be safe and we can get some beers.

Hope your house makes it through ok.

 
evi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits  44s44 seconds ago

More

Latest recon pass found a lower pressure at 935mb, a sign that #Irma is shrugging off the influence of Cuba. Winds not coming up yet though.

 
Maybe measurement error but from the first pass to the last the pressure dropped 4mb.  1mb/hr is considered very strong development.  4mb/hr is, well more than that.

 
culdeus said:
Maybe measurement error but from the first pass to the last the pressure dropped 4mb.  1mb/hr is considered very strong development.  4mb/hr is, well more than that.
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And it's moving west at 9 mph.  Half speed what it was moving two days ago.  Plenty of time to develop. 

 
need2know said:
This thing has consistently been pushing more west than they have thought
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Depends on who you call "they".  Euro models have had this thing west all week.  The less accurate models have had it east.  

The path it is on is a pretty dead ringer to how the Euro had this thing on Tuesday both in track and intensity.  The NHC cone has been spot on so far.  If it truly doesn't make landfall on the peninsula that would be a bit of a shock.

 
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