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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (2 Viewers)

Jefferson county is getting power back. Usually it goes from the city out to the sticks but this time it came inward. Our power came on last night around 10. Hope the rest of you are back up soon. 

 
BeaverCleaver said:
And what do you do with the solar panels when they are destroyed by storms?
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Solar panels are supposed to be able to take 120mph.  If the solar panels get ripped off they way they are constructed the rest of the roof is going to go to,  if the roof is gone it's not by flooding and would be covered by insurance, and by definition you likely have much larger issues.  

Burying cable so people can avoid blackouts of a week or two at the costs of what? Trillions? of dollars seems really wasteful when solar tiles/panels will likely be the way people power their homes in 20 years.  

 
Power finally back on in Polk County

On the power lines, I saw today where it costs 5 times as much on average to go undergound.  Underground average is $1,000,000 per mile.

Note that it still would be ineffective in any environment where surge/flooding was possible.  Particularly salt water.

 
So Trump signed in the HR bill for the relief.  The funny thing is it covers Irma and Jose.  Is Trump doing some doomcasting or what?

 
11pm run looks much better re: Jose and the northeast. TD 14 formed, but there's likely a storm to come in front.

 
Clown Car said:
Jefferson county is getting power back. Usually it goes from the city out to the sticks but this time it came inward. Our power came on last night around 10. Hope the rest of you are back up soon. 
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Great news!  Still parts of Tampa without power, but they are covering a lot of ground here every day.  Friends in St. Pete still don't have power, but it will come back soon.

I'm heading to Dallas on Monday for my FEMA badging.  I think I'm either going to Winchester, TX or Winchester, VA in support of damage assessment after that for a few weeks.  I'm honestly not sure which, but I do know I'll be helping.  All good. 

 
Osaurus said:
Great news!  Still parts of Tampa without power, but they are covering a lot of ground here every day.  Friends in St. Pete still don't have power, but it will come back soon.

I'm heading to Dallas on Monday for my FEMA badging.  I think I'm either going to Winchester, TX or Winchester, VA in support of damage assessment after that for a few weeks.  I'm honestly not sure which, but I do know I'll be helping.  All good. 
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You'd be in my neck of the woods.

 
Osaurus said:
Great news!  Still parts of Tampa without power, but they are covering a lot of ground here every day.  Friends in St. Pete still don't have power, but it will come back soon.

I'm heading to Dallas on Monday for my FEMA badging.  I think I'm either going to Winchester, TX or Winchester, VA in support of damage assessment after that for a few weeks.  I'm honestly not sure which, but I do know I'll be helping.  All good. 
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Maybe the Winchester mystery house?

Good for you for doing this. Looking forward to hearing what they'll have you doing.

 
In case anyone is curious, Key West is still a no-go for some of my peeps, and Bradford Co (rural area near U of F) is still out of power with numerous trees/power lines down on roads still.  I'm just thankful everyone has their health.  I hope the same for everyone else here.

 
Kilgore Trout said:
10 day forecasts will do that. What is more interesting right now is Jose. A Cat 2-3 teasing the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast next week?
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Jose is somewhat a nightmare because one little ridge shift and this thing could get really close to shore.  

It got pretty rekt in the last 48 hours though.  

 
Jose dropped to tropical storm and has an unfavorable environment for strengthening ahead of it to the north.

#40 is strengthening and heading towards the Caribbean. Models suggesting after Puerto Rico it may turn north.

#41 is likely to reach tropical storm status soon, but expected to move into the open Atlantic.

 
GregR said:
Jose dropped to tropical storm and has an unfavorable environment for strengthening ahead of it to the north.

#40 is strengthening and heading towards the Caribbean. Models suggesting after Puerto Rico it may turn north.

#41 is likely to reach tropical storm status soon, but expected to move into the open Atlantic.
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What naming convention are you using here?

96L = #40?

97L = #41?

Or something else?

 
culdeus said:
What naming convention are you using here?

96L = #40?

97L = #41?

Or something else?
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It's just a straight numbering of tropical disturbances in order of appearance. Rather than renumbering them continually based on what's active as NOAA does.

So #38 ended up as Irma. #39 as Jose. #40 is currently called tropical disturbance 1 by NOAA.  #41 is currently called tropical depression 14 by NOAA, and was previously called tropical disturbance 2.

I believe tropical disturbance is the level below Invest.

 
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Osaurus said:
Yup.  Just confirmed I'll be in VA mid-next week after badging in Dallas.  I'm doing application/developer support for one of the "cogs" for FEMA inspections in TX and then probably FL.  Should be there roughly 2 1/2 weeks.  Next time @kevzilla
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Let me know when you get settled and if you have some free time. Depending on where you're staying, I'm only about 20-30 minutes away.

 
Still no power in lots of sections of West FL.

FPL REALLY dropped the ball. I got an estimate of 9/22.

#### you, FPL. 

 
Uruk-Hai said:
Let me know when you get settled and if you have some free time. Depending on where you're staying, I'm only about 20-30 minutes away.
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Cool.  Think I'm going to be at a Hampton Inn on University for the next 3 weeks.  Not sure where that is yet.   :loco:   Plans keep changing.

 
Uruk-Hai said:
Let me know when you get settled and if you have some free time. Depending on where you're staying, I'm only about 20-30 minutes away.
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Cool.  Think I'm going to be at a Hampton Inn on University for the next 3 weeks.  Not sure where that is yet.   :loco:   Plans keep changing.

 
Key West Hopes to Reopen to Tourists by October 20

Just in time for Fantasy Fest.

Days after Hurricane Irma made landfall in Florida and left 15 million people without power, the state is beginning to grapple with its long-term effects. Earlier this week, county officials in the Florida Keys announced that the chain of islands would be closed to tourists "until further notice." Though the wind has stopped, there is no fuel, electricity, running water, or cell service. The Key West tourism website encourages visitors to postpone their trips until infrastructure assessments, such as inspections of bridges, is complete.

But a new report today from Travel Weekly has hopeful news: Key West has set a target date of October 20 to reopen to visitors. It coincides with the start of Fantasy Fest, a pre-Halloween bonanza of costume parties, parades, and balls—one of its biggest events of the year.

U.S. Highway 1—the only way on and off the Keys by car—reopened Tuesday morning to residents and business owners in the Upper Keys.

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/tourists-barred-from-florida-keys-until-further-notice

 
Wingnut said:
Key West Hopes to Reopen to Tourists by October 20

Just in time for Fantasy Fest.

Days after Hurricane Irma made landfall in Florida and left 15 million people without power, the state is beginning to grapple with its long-term effects. Earlier this week, county officials in the Florida Keys announced that the chain of islands would be closed to tourists "until further notice." Though the wind has stopped, there is no fuel, electricity, running water, or cell service. The Key West tourism website encourages visitors to postpone their trips until infrastructure assessments, such as inspections of bridges, is complete.

But a new report today from Travel Weekly has hopeful news: Key West has set a target date of October 20 to reopen to visitors. It coincides with the start of Fantasy Fest, a pre-Halloween bonanza of costume parties, parades, and balls—one of its biggest events of the year.

U.S. Highway 1—the only way on and off the Keys by car—reopened Tuesday morning to residents and business owners in the Upper Keys.

https://www.cntraveler.com/story/tourists-barred-from-florida-keys-until-further-notice
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wow... that would be great to be back so quickly. go get 'em, FL.

eta: wait... or is this too long? local folk- what are the thoughts?

 
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FIL found his boats  one was across the street. The other was across the canal. His jerk was nearby as well. At least that's the reports from his neighbors. He hasn't been able to get to his house yet

 
Sweating my balls off at my mom's crib in Bonita Springs. She doesn't have power either but at leasr she has water (city water).

Nashville is an awesome city, btw. 

 
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Guessing everyone is home, but just in case, I have a FL traffic update.  We have been sending people in to FL in waves from Alabama since Wednesday.  Similar trips down 75 via Atlanta took 14 hours on Wed, 12 hours on Thurs and it took me around 9.5 today (where normal according to Waze appears to be around 8.5).  As expected, lots of utility contractors, repair firms and charity orgs on their way in.  My 9th hurricane worked and I still got chills seeing all the resources heading in to assist with the recovery.  Hopefully I don't get to go through multiple evacuations like I did in 2004.  

 
Lee is official but wont do anything of consequence

Maria should be soon after and is a coin flip right now to cause trouble. 

 
Track forecast for PTC 15

Our three top models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis—the European, GFS, and UKMET—have been predicting development of PTC 15 into a tropical storm over multiple runs, with development occurring Saturday or Sunday. The forecasts on Saturday morning were in better agreement, predicting that PTC 15 would be steered west-northwest at speeds ranging from 10 – 20 mph through Thursday, bringing the storm through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday morning, to the vicinity of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Wednesday morning, and near the Dominican Republic by Thursday morning. Beyond Thursday, the path of PTC 15 will depend, in part, upon what Jose is up to. If Jose is still wandering off the U.S. New England coast, this will create a weakness in the ridge of high pressure steering PTC 15 to the west-northwest, and PTC 15 will turn more toward the northwest or north-northwest. If Jose is out of the picture, the ridge could keep PTC 15 rolling west-northwestward. In either case, it is possible that PTC 15 will approach the U.S. East Coast more than a week from now. A strong autumn-like upper-level trough will be moving across the western and central U.S. late in the week. This will tend to pump up a ridge toward the northeast U.S. and northwest Atlantic, which could end up blocking PTC 15 from moving out to sea.
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This is from Wunderground today.  Since this post Jose has slowed down more than expected making the PTC 15 (What will be Maria I believe) track push more southward.  

Lots and lots of time till this gets locked down, but this looks like another atlantic side landfall in the next 10-14 days of magnitude of a shuke fart to a Cat 7..

 
Maria has formed, and it looks to be initially taking aim at the Bahamas as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. Better get ready again! Round 2, fight!

 
culdeus said:
This is from Wunderground today.  Since this post Jose has slowed down more than expected making the PTC 15 (What will be Maria I believe) track push more southward.  

Lots and lots of time till this gets locked down, but this looks like another atlantic side landfall in the next 10-14 days of magnitude of a shuke fart to a Cat 7..
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:thumbup:

 
Kal El said:
Maria has formed, and it looks to be initially taking aim at the Bahamas as a Category 2 or 3 hurricane. Better get ready again! Round 2, fight!
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What happened to Lee?

ETA - never mind...I see what happened

 
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