*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (3 Viewers)

[Chemical X]

i am in raleigh and have been putting off buying a generator....i am delaying a bit here, but have a feeling we may be in the path.  i may wait another 2-3 days then go.  i had no power for 3 days last fall when matthew grazed our area.  want something to run the fridge, some lights and maybe the tv and a window AC if need be.

 

[Zegras11]

i am in raleigh and have been putting off buying a generator....i am delaying a bit here, but have a feeling we may be in the path.  i may wait another 2-3 days then go.  i had no power for 3 days last fall when matthew grazed our area.  want something to run the fridge, some lights and maybe the tv and a window AC if need be.

Get Cav drunk and I'm sure he'll buy it for you....

 

[Chemical X]

Get Cav drunk and I'm sure he'll buy it for you....

he'll do more than that.....

 

[GregR]

Will cross my fingers for everyone it heads back out into the Atlantic.

 

[John Bender]

Might screw up my Vegas plans this weekend.  In Richmond here.  Wife is out of country for a few months for work so I have a dog sitter set up to stop by and handle her, but don't think I can leave an expect a dog sitter to get to my house 3 times a day if there's a pending hurricane :(  . I'll be watching this one closely.

 

[Zegras11]

I'm really bummed and I didn't sign up this year for this....

Over 19,000 Keller Williams Realty Associates and guests from all around the world were planning to gather in Austin, Texas on September 12th for one of our conventions called Mega Camp. The Austin convention center is currently housing 7,000 evacuees from Houston and when the Mayor of Austin called Gary Keller and asked him to cancel our event, Gary did the right thing. So what does our company do? They jump into immediate action and coordinate Mega Relief. Instead of a convention, we will be taking 120 buses daily from Austin to Houston and the surrounding areas to help one family at a time.

 

[Kal El]

Irma's 5pm track still has it on course to stomp through the Bahamas later in the week as a Category 4. Beyond that, it's anyone's guess, but everywhere from Key West to Norfolk should be watching this.

 

[Chemical X]

may buy the generator tomorrow, leave it in car and wait for forecast.....this way, at least I have it.

 

[The Big Donkey]

I've been following Mike's Weather Page on Facebook and then he runs the spaghetti models URL too

He's based on Florida's Gulf Coast too, so I find it more helpful than some of the others. 

Mike has a discussion (from this evening) on Irma, runs about 45 minutes on the spaghetti models page linked above.  It's in the right hand column, under "Mike's weather Page".

 

[GoBirds]

Mike has a discussion (from this evening) on Irma, runs about 45 minutes on the spaghetti models page linked above.  It's in the right hand column, under "Mike's weather Page".

Can you give us the cliff notes ?

 

[Kal El]

11pm update straightens out the forecast track. As of now, the Bahamas and Florida are staring down the proverbial barrel, and it's all warm water offshore here.

 

[The Big Donkey]

Can you give us the cliff notes ?

Too early to tell when/where and if it turns north but (will know by Saturday next week for sure - 24hr) the:

* GFS & Euro models do have it continuing to move west, more than previously.  He thinks the updated models (coming out tomorrow) will show it continuing to move west before the turn and "make the morning news".

* U.S. landfall looks more likely.

* System looks to be larger than Matthew, even if it doesn't make landfall on the east coast of Florida and stays off the coast - hurricane force winds c(w)ould stretch into central Florida possibly gulf side. 

* He mentioned that he thought this would be more of wind event/storm surge event than the amount of rain associated with Harvey.

* Doesn't see any conditions for this to weaken from a cat 3/4.

* No one is out of the water yet from Florida to Virginia.

* There is an additional system trailing behind Irma - not an Invest yet (so no spaghetti models) but a 60% chance of Cyclone formation within 5 days.

Those were my takeaways.   

 

[SoBeDad]

Can you give us the cliff notes ?

Anywhere from the Florida Keys to NC, based on the ensemble models on Wunderground. Irma will turn north when she reaches the western portion of a large high pressure ridge. The models vary depending on her speed in the next few days. The discussion on wunderground is manageable. ETA looks to be Sunday to Monday depending on where she hits.

 

[Gawain]

11pm update straightens out the forecast track. As of now, the Bahamas and Florida are staring down the proverbial barrel, and it's all warm water offshore here.

Yeah, bad update for Florida. Miami officially on the hurricane force wind probability chart.

The latest EURO, which is a few hours old now, still has a lot of tracks that bring the recurve in, but seeming less likely.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

another good site for tracking storms. He runs the Louisiana Hurricane Center on Facebook, and they give very informative updates there about any developments in the Tropics

 

[Kal El]

Yeah, bad update for Florida. Miami officially on the hurricane force wind probability chart.

The latest EURO, which is a few hours old now, still has a lot of tracks that bring the recurve in, but seeming less likely.

Yeah, my family and I are keeping an eye on it. If it does come at us (bro), we have plans in place. 

 

[Kal El]

5am track has it moving further south, still no northward turn yet, but it's looking more and more likely that any turn will put it over Florida this weekend.

 

[flranger]

aww ####.  After 3 eyes in 04 i hate these things.

 

[MindCrime]

I'm in Central Florida, and the latest track has me very concerned. As of now, it will be shocking if we don't see some major effects of this, even if it doesn't make landfall in Florida. The local news keeps saying "too early to tell", which unfortunately, along with the continuing coverage of Harvey, may have people here not too concerned as of yet. 

 

[DallasDMac]

Pro tip, stock up on gas. Even if there will be no shortage. San Antonio proving that when it comes to banding together, working as a community and not panicking, people fall back on the typical American mentality of me first, all for one and one for me. People are nuts.

 

[Ignoramus]

may buy the generator tomorrow, leave it in car and wait for forecast.....this way, at least I have it.

If you're on the fence and potentially in the path, I would just buy it. Worst-case you just return it when the storm misses you. If you wait and it heads your way, generators will be in very short supply. 

 

[Osaurus]

Ugh

 

[GregR]

Key fuel lines restart as concerns ease over supply crunch after Harvey

HOUSTON (Reuters) - Two key fuel pipelines were set to start up on Monday after certain segments in Texas were shut because of Hurricane Harvey, helping alleviate concerns about rising retail prices and the domestic distribution of gasoline and distillates.

Colonial Pipeline Co, the biggest U.S. fuel system, said on Sunday it planned to reopen the main distillate line between Houston and Hebert, Texas, on Monday, and the gasoline line between those two points on Tuesday. The company had initially aimed to restart both its lines by Sunday.

The company’s pipelines connect refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast to markets in the Northeast, transporting more than 3 million barrels a day of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

Explorer Pipeline said late on Sunday that its Texas-to-Oklahoma 28-inch fuel pipeline started up as expected. Its 24-inch fuel pipeline, which will run from Oklahoma into the U.S. Midwest, will restart on Monday.

The return of supply eased some concerns after the storm took down nearly a quarter of U.S. oil refining capacity, hit oil and gas platforms along the Gulf and lifted average gasoline prices by more than 20 cents since Aug. 23.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Gulf of Mexico is not out of play yet either. ####. Really just hope the damn thing goes back to its home. 

 

[SoBeDad]

5am track has it moving further south, still no northward turn yet, but it's looking more and more likely that any turn will put it over Florida this weekend.

The  European Medium Range Forecast Model has it going over Cuba, with some weakening, and then going over the Florida Keys around noon Sunday on a due north course.

 

[Mjolnirs]

The  European Medium Range Forecast Model has it going over Cuba, with some weakening, and then going over the Florida Keys around noon Sunday on a due north course.

That hard north turn right at the end of that loop would just rake all of Florida.

 

[dhockster]

Went to Fiesta grocery store this morning. Don't care for that place but my normal grocery is at the edge of the new mandatory evacuation area, while I knew Fiesta was open. A lot of things still cleaned out. Produce was hit or miss but got some fresh bananas. Meat case, cheese, dairy, etc had lots of things cleaned out completely. Got some fresh hamburger at least. Bread aisle was pretty much cleared out but did have a few loaves left, though I threw a bunch of flatbread in the freezer before the storm so I was good already (and far fewer carbs!). Went at 9:30 so not many people in there.

Saw a fireman SUV pulling a boat heading off towards Buffalo Bayou flood zone. I had a roof guy come out yesterday for an estimate (just time for a new one, not due to Harvey). Went ahead and got locked in with him at the current prices before the dealers run out of stock and prices start going up. He said he hasn't been looking at a lot of wind damage, mostly water damage from people who had leaks. Said the only open highways to get past Buffalo Bayou are 99 on the west and 610 on the east. So that is a 20-mile stretch that north-south travel is blocked by the Bayou they are releasing the reservoirs into.

Apparently traffic is pretty terrible too. A lot of people were out. I'm pretty much sticking at home at this point or just quick runs down the block so I don't add to it. I have a good buddy who wants to take his family to a Skeeters minor league baseball game, which would mean a drive from far northwest to far southwest Houston. Probably 45-50 minutes with no traffic. I can't even imagine what it'll be today. Warned him about the state of the roads, and encouraged him to find something more local to soothe his wife's cabin-fever, but I imagine he's just going to end up suffering through it.

You can cross the bayou at Chimney Rock, San Felipe (just west of Voss), and I heard (but haven't confirmed) that you can now cross over Fondren. My ex lives south of the bayou and I live north of it, so I have had to make several treks to transport kids between houses.

Also, they started to reduce the release rates from Barker and Addicks reservoirs last night, so the water that is slowly receding back to the Buffalo Bayou, should start receding at a faster rate. As it does, more bridges across the bayou will become accessible.

Where do you live, Greg? I am off of Upland, north of I-10 and west of Beltway 8. I am just east of the Addicks Reservoir.

 

[culdeus]

The  European Medium Range Forecast Model has it going over Cuba, with some weakening, and then going over the Florida Keys around noon Sunday on a due north course.

Oof

 

[Kal El]

That hard north turn right at the end of that loop would just rake all of Florida.

Yup, may be time to start battening down the hatches.

 

[Galileo]

The  European Medium Range Forecast Model has it going over Cuba, with some weakening, and then going over the Florida Keys around noon Sunday on a due north course.

From the looks of that model, the storm trailing behind Irma looks be be swinging northward early enough to be a non factor for the coast...small consolation, I know.

 

[Kal El]

From the looks of that model, the storm trailing behind Irma looks be be swinging northward early enough to be a non factor for the coast...small consolation, I know.

One disaster at a time.

 

[Tom Skerritt]

Angry cop has "had enough" from guy rescuing flood victims

 

[Doug B]

Gulf of Mexico is not out of play yet either. ####. Really just hope the damn thing goes back to its home. 

Thinking this same thing, as every subsequent 5-day forecast pushes Irma further and further west.

Actually, if I were living anywhere on the Eastern seaboard from about Savannah, GA northward, I'd be feeling pretty good right now looking at the 5-days..

 

[culdeus]

Angry cop has "had enough" from guy rescuing flood victims

What in the world was he pissed about?  

 

[culdeus]

Gulf of Mexico is not out of play yet either. ####. Really just hope the damn thing goes back to its home. 

I'm no expert but there is a cold front coming thru the US that should in theory push it east.  I realize all the models factor in that stuff, but whatever.  

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

I'm no expert but there is a cold front coming thru the US that should in theory push it east.  I realize all the models factor in that stuff, but whatever.  

Yeah, that's the hope, and hopefully back out to sea. Just too soon to tell. 

 

[culdeus]

Yeah, that's the hope, and hopefully back out to sea. Just too soon to tell. 

The timing is bad.  Cold front won't really impact the east coast till 9/8.  That's probably too late to save landfall but would think could steer it away from the gulf???

 

[Kal El]

Thinking this same thing, as every subsequent 5-day forecast pushes Irma further and further west.

Actually, if I were living anywhere on the Eastern seaboard from about Savannah, GA northward, I'd be feeling pretty good right now looking at the 5-days..

Keep in mind that Matthew made a 90 degree turn when it wasn't expected to.

 

[Doug B]

I'm no expert but there is a cold front coming thru the US that should in theory push it east.  I realize all the models factor in that stuff, but whatever.  

We should know a lot more about this tomorrow. From the weather mavens at SaintsReport:

NOAA is scheduled to fly their Jet Stream aircraft early Tuesday morning. They'll be flying into the cold front positioned in Canada currently. The info should be available for the 12z model runs tommorrow. These planes fly at 45,000 feet. We'll know more about the upper atmosphere conditions once this flight is complete.

 

[GregR]

You can cross the bayou at Chimney Rock, San Felipe (just west of Voss), and I heard (but haven't confirmed) that you can now cross over Fondren. My ex lives south of the bayou and I live north of it, so I have had to make several treks to transport kids between houses.

Also, they started to reduce the release rates from Barker and Addicks reservoirs last night, so the water that is slowly receding back to the Buffalo Bayou, should start receding at a faster rate. As it does, more bridges across the bayou will become accessible.

Where do you live, Greg? I am off of Upland, north of I-10 and west of Beltway 8. I am just east of the Addicks Reservoir.

South of Westheimer near Eldridge.

 

[GregR]

Looks like 29-30 C waters southeast of Florida. For reference, 27+ is generally needed for hurricanes. Over 30 south and west of Cuba and west of Florida.

 

[The Big Donkey]

"New NHC advisory is out. Key points here. NHC talking to Florida directly now. When is the turn going to happen is the big question. EURO says a hard right coming... but that seems odd to me. We will see what afternoon models say. GA/SC/NC/VA should stay alert. And the Gulf too... with west coast of FL mainly but if the turn isn't sharp maybe more. Expected to hit 145mph now officially. www.spaghettimodels.com / Mikes Weather Page APP"

https://www.facebook.com/mikesweatherpage/photos/a.10150182050932367.321548.88134562366/10155489881767367/?type=3

 

[Gawain]

The GFS is aligning with the Euro with a hard right somewhere off the coast of Cuba.

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090406_GEFS.png?86041613

 

[Doug B]

Thinking this same thing, as every subsequent 5-day forecast pushes Irma further and further west.

Actually, if I were living anywhere on the Eastern seaboard from about Savannah, GA northward, I'd be feeling pretty good right now looking at the 5-days..

Keep in mind that Matthew made a 90 degree turn when it wasn't expected to.

You're right, of course -- the 5 day track is not carved in stone. No doubt about it.

 

[Kal El]

You're right, of course -- the 5 day track is not carved in stone. No doubt about it.

Yup. Meteorology in general is speculation for the future beyond the next 6 hours most of the time anyway.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Latest Euro has landfall next Tuesday morning around the GA/SC border and it goes inland over southern SC.  Miami and rest of Florida coast get plenty of hurricane winds though.  

 

[culdeus]

What is the worst case scenario?  I know for Houston a left eyewall hit over the Houston Ship Channel would be the end of life as we know it.  What is the single defining track of a mega storm to end life as it's known in Florida?

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

What is the worst case scenario?  I know for Houston a left eyewall hit over the Houston Ship Channel would be the end of life as we know it.  What is the single defining track of a mega storm to end life as it's known in Florida?

Hurricane Andrew in 1992 was close.

 

[GregR]

What is the worst case scenario?  I know for Houston a left eyewall hit over the Houston Ship Channel would be the end of life as we know it.  What is the single defining track of a mega storm to end life as it's known in Florida?

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/lHectESJg-I/maxresdefault.jpg

 

[culdeus]

Upgraded to Cat 4.