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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (3 Viewers)

GroveDiesel said:
Rather than joining the panic and trying to find bottled water, fill your bathtubs and other containers ahead of time and buy a couple of LifeStraw Steels

ETA: Or better yet, leave if you're on the coast.
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Side comment... wonder why they don't bring one of those as a one-item-allowed on Naked and Afraid. Maybe they don't allow them?

 
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Absolute worst case track is sort of kissing the north side of cuba and PR.  This gives it access to the very warm water to the south without taking much damage from elevation.  

At this point it contacts the cold front and takes a 90 degree turn to the NNE.  Where it contacts the front will determine everything.  

 
Big Blue Wrecking Crew said:
Any SC FBGs in here?  My son is at Coastal Carolina, so just wondering about sources for news specific to that area in order to plan.
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I would simply suggest a local TV station. Just pick one and stick with it.  I usually watch the CBS affiliate in Charleston.

AAABatteries said:
If it does go straight up the state then how strong could it be when it got to Jacksonville and Valdosta?
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Ask the people in Charlotte that thought Hugo wouldn't be much by the time it crossed South Carolina.

GregR said:
Don't forget to fill up your bathtubs prior to the storm. In addition to drinking water if needed, you could use it for bathing, or grab a bucket and use it to flush the toilets with if the water goes out.

And charge anything that needs charging. Electric camping lights, phones, tablets, portable phone rechargers, etc.
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Filling the tub for "flush water" is a good plan.  Starting in May I rinse out milk containers as we use them.  I string them up in my garage for hurricane season.  If a storm comes, I fill them and set them on the bathroom floor, this eliminates the need to panic buy water.  I have a dozen 1/2 gallon containers.

flranger said:
They are legit, they meet the state hurricane shutter standards.
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A link to these?

 
Mjolnirs said:
 Starting in May I rinse out milk containers as we use them.  I string them up in my garage for hurricane season.  If a storm comes, I fill them and set them on the bathroom floor, this eliminates the need to panic buy water.  I have a dozen 1/2 gallon containers.
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This is a really cool/smart idea. :thumbup:  

I Keep four 5gal versions of these Jerry-Can style jugs full at all times in a closet, dumping and refilling once or twice a year. 

 
culdeus said:
All the models will refresh at 2pm today +/-.  This will put it 6 days out from landfall.  6 days is still a little too early to project true danger.  Wait for those, they will incorporate the HH flights both into the front and the storm this morning.

Tomorrow at 2pm +/- will have as much accuracy as you can hope to expect.  This is when the evac orders come.  

At 2pm today you have a legit week to run.  
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Wonder when USF / UF decide to cancel classes?  Tomorrow? 

 
Senor Schmutzig said:
Sitting at my desk here in Miami realizing that there won't be a lot of productivity in the office this week. If people aren't looking at SpaghettiModels.com, TropicalTidbits.com, Wunderground, etc, they are talking about it non-stop. 
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If we can get all residents of Florida to step outside and blow southeast maybe we can turn this thing.

 
We're lucky that we have two evacuation options to parents....Pensacola or Highlands, NC.  Any reason NOT to go the NC route? Only thought I have is its elevation and tree- heavy location.

 
Get popcorn for the 2pm est euro. 

Whatever that shows will dictate evac. Orders for better or worse. 

 
culdeus said:
Get popcorn for the 2pm est euro. 

Whatever that shows will dictate evac. Orders for better or worse. 
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I believe the storm will track along the east side of the state, call it a hunch. I hope it's wrong, because I live on that side.

 
There has only been six recorded Atlantic hurricanes stronger than Irma: Allen, Gilbert, Rita, Wilma, Mitch, and Labor Day (1935 before they named storms)

Notice Andrew isnt in that list :shock:

 
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msommer said:
LifeStraw effing rules. I'd probably go with LifeStraw Family instead
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LifeStraw Metal is the only one that filters out herbicide/pesticides and some heavy metals. 

If it really hit the fan, I'd want the one that filters more junk out of the water.

Or grab the Family to help with cooking and hand washing water and a Metal for drinking water.

 
good luck FL and SE guys.

Irma looks like it's got my favorite place (where we got married and have spent most of our vacations the last 15 years) Anguilla straight in it's sites. keeping fingers crossed for our friends there and elsewhere in the Northern caribbean.

 
Master's blog updated:

The take-home message: while it is too soon to rule out other possibilities, Irma has a good chance of moving northward close enough to the Florida peninsula for significant impacts to large parts of the state, potentially devastating in some areas. Irma may be moving at 10 mph for a day or more after it makes its northward turn, which will prolong the period of high winds and heavy rains within its circulation. Even if it moves along Florida’s west coast, residents on the East Coast could still receive hurricane-force winds, significant storm surge, and torrential rains of 10 - 15” or more. Depending on Irma’s track, some areas could experience 8 hours or more of hurricane-force wind and 24 hours or more of tropical-storm-force wind. The National Hurricane Center reminds us not to focus on the exact forecast track, though, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
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So Masters' point is that don't focus on the track but the intensity for now at least, but the intensity models have been way off.  So basically, I guess....Pray?

 
lod001 said:
Is that the most up to date estimated track because what I have been seeing is coming into the Sanibel island area o the west coast and straight up just to the east of Tampa. Your track show is turning north earlier.
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He's showing GFS.  Everyone needs to stay calm.  It's still really too early to call this ####.  

 
So is there anything to be made that latest observation has forward movement due west, not NW or WNW? Or is it just a snapshot in time?

 
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