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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

In-Laws in Naples left last night.  Stacked as much as they could on beds and cinder blocks.  Put the hurricane shutters on - they are rated to 175 mph.  Their condo is on the first floor so I'm sure they will be flooded.  They were going to stay in Valdosta, GA, but now are just going to come here to Tennessee.

 
They sent some planes thru the front, and determined it will hit sooner and harder pushing the storm and models to the east.  

IMHO Tampa may be out of woods for a direct hit.  Miami still in play, but looking more likely eyewall won't get over florida, they will get wet though.

 
also read that Richard Branson is staying on Necker Island (his private island in the BVI), camping out in his concrete wine cellar.

 
culdeus said:
So the NOAA update this morning should have people ####ting bricks.  

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone
Click to expand...
A little CYA in the discussion

The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula. However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these impacts.
Click to expand...

 
pantherclub said:
Could you unpack this a bit.  How is this worse then what we have been seeing already?  What am I missing?
Click to expand...
Guessing because that image says hurricane goes up the peninsula.  I think that's a model probability image where that's the average of the runs but most mets online are saying it's either going up the east or west coasts of Florida and not up the peninsula.  The trend is back east which puts the Carolinas in harms way but even that depends on where landfall occurs. 

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Guessing because that image says hurricane goes up the peninsula.  I think that's a model probability image where that's the average of the runs but most mets online are saying it's either going up the east or west coasts of Florida and not up the peninsula.  The trend is back east which puts the Carolinas in harms way but even that depends on where landfall occurs. 
Click to expand...
This. NHC shifted the cone to the East but not as far as most models. They don't want the public to think the coast is clear on the Gulf Coast in case models change plus even if storm skirts East coast of Florida, hurricane winds will be far inland.

 
pantherclub said:
Could you unpack this a bit.  How is this worse then what we have been seeing already?  What am I missing?
Click to expand...
The NOAA has not had this thing going straight up the gut till this AM, they not only have it going up the gut they have it as a Major up the gut.  They have been tracking this as a glancing hit across the left coast, and perhaps weaker as a result of a cuba interaction.

This morning plot will be used by CNN and all the MSM as the go-to chart 5 days out and will be used by all the authorities to call for evac.  Everyone that has been following along casually will see this, #### bricks and run.  

There is no time to argue the merits of GFS vs Euro vs. the Shuke model etc. etc.  You don't have much more than 5 days to GTFO without leaving a few million people stranded on an interstate.  At best 24 hours from today they probably call a east track and maybe tampa can calm down. dunno. 

 
Ramblin Wreck said:
Guessing because that image says hurricane goes up the peninsula.  I think that's a model probability image where that's the average of the runs but most mets online are saying it's either going up the east or west coasts of Florida and not up the peninsula.  The trend is back east which puts the Carolinas in harms way but even that depends on where landfall occurs. 
Click to expand...
Thanks, do you think by later today or when should they know exactly where it makes landfall?  If it comes close to the outer banks I have to do ton of stuff to get ready for it. 

 
culdeus said:
The NOAA has not had this thing going straight up the gut till this AM, they not only have it going up the gut they have it as a Major up the gut.  They have been tracking this as a glancing hit across the left coast, and perhaps weaker as a result of a cuba interaction.

This morning plot will be used by CNN and all the MSM as the go-to chart 5 days out and will be used by all the authorities to call for evac.  Everyone that has been following along casually will see this, #### bricks and run.  

There is no time to argue the merits of GFS vs Euro vs. the Shuke model etc. etc.  You don't have much more than 5 days to GTFO without leaving a few million people stranded on an interstate.  At best 24 hours from today they probably call a east track and maybe tampa can calm down. dunno. 
Click to expand...
Thank you.  The tracks I saw this morning had it shifted a lot harder to the east and crashing into Charleston or Wilmington.

 
pantherclub said:
Thanks, do you think by later today or when should they know exactly where it makes landfall?
Click to expand...
Landfall location pretty much locks in about 12-24 hours beforehand ... so nothing quite that specific will be known today.

IMHO, for what that's worth, it's hard for me to imagine coastal NC making it out unscathed. Not devastation, but plenty of rain and power outages.

 
On a personal note, this storm has totally stalled my IT job search. I have several leads where I went thru a preliminary interview and waiting for a second interview. I figured things would pick up after Labor Day. Of course every IT manager in town is now spending 16 hours a day on disaster recovery options.

 
Are people in Florida hoping for a turn and complete miss east, or that it gets a good chunk of Cuba to weaken it before landfall in the US?

It seems like worst case is a Cuba miss or graze and then direct hit on Florida?

 
The Duff Man said:
Are people in Florida hoping for a turn and complete miss east, or that it gets a good chunk of Cuba to weaken it before landfall in the US?

It seems like worst case is a Cuba miss or graze and then direct hit on Florida?
Click to expand...
That would be worst case scenario. 

 
The Duff Man said:
Are people in Florida hoping for a turn and complete miss east, or that it gets a good chunk of Cuba to weaken it before landfall in the US?

It seems like worst case is a Cuba miss or graze and then direct hit on Florida?
Click to expand...
Yes. It would be very helpful for Florida for 2 significant land interactions to happen. 1) The Dominican Republic-this is looking less and less likely but would help a ton. They have significant mountains and I've seen them shear the heck out of lesser storms...decapitated Hurricane Debby in 2000. 2) Cuba- though not the topography of Hispaniola, they have enough mass and terrain to certainly help. The eye really needs to get over land though to really reallyhelp.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
It's been pointed out for it to make as hard a right turn as GFS is suggesting it would have to slow down first.  

 
JaxBill said:
I can't imagine riding this out on those tiny islands. Devastating.
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These events make me wonder how anyone lived on those islands before modern times.  I mean, natives to those islands wouldn't have had any warning and bam!  wall of water.  Maybe they did keep getting wiped out and resettled.  I don't know.

 
anybody have news about Barbuda? last I checked, Antigua news said Antigua was safe, but hadn't heard from Barbuda since around midnight.

 
Kal El said:
Still, a hurricane doesn't have to slow down to turn.
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Absolutely it does, at least in a particular direction.  Maybe you are confusing wind speed in the hurricane with the velocity of the eye across the surface of the globe.  A westerly moving system must slow down in the westerly direction in order to speed up towards the east.

 
Galileo said:
Absolutely it does, at least in a particular direction.  Maybe you are confusing wind speed in the hurricane with the velocity of the eye across the surface of the globe.  A westerly moving system must slow down in the westerly direction in order to speed up towards the east.
Click to expand...
If you look at Matthew (which seems to be the one people are using as an analog here), it damn near came to a dead stop while it turned.  I've looked at some other storms that turn, the degree to which they slowed is different but I haven't one that just went up on two wheels as it made a turn.  

 
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