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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

lod001 said:
Where ya think you are going? As it looks now, you are safe over there. The path is going to continue to move east. Taking all my plywood back to Lowes and I am east of you.
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Sell it in the parking lot to some whacko for twice what you paid.

 
$27 MILLION!

Thanks in part to an extremely generous $5 Million donation from Mr. Charles Butt at HEB.

YouCaring.com/JJWatt

 
st john is getting hammered as we speak.  the eye is over the BVI and the southwestern wall of the eye with the strongest winds is right on the USVI

 
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lod001 said:
Where ya think you are going? As it looks now, you are safe over there. The path is going to continue to move east. Taking all my plywood back to Lowes and I am east of you.
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Was definitely planning on heading to Pensacola, but given the eastern shift, I'll monitor and decide now.

 
Wingnut said:
Last year Matthew (a cat 3 IIRC) passed right by West Palm near the coast...I couldn't believe the lack of damage after it passed. Merritt Island and Canaveral area got it much worse but being on the west side of a storm is actually much better than being on the east side. So thats about all one can hope for if a near direct hit is imminent
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NE quadrant is the most potent correct?  Noob question for most here....bear with me.  Figuring if it goes up the coast then some pretty strong winds and rain is what we're looking at inland.  We'd probably stay put in that scenario.  Incidentally, anyone have a whole home generator?  We were thinking of one well before this storm, but I haven't had time to research.

 
Wingnut said:
Last year Matthew (a cat 3 IIRC) passed right by West Palm near the coast...I couldn't believe the lack of damage after it passed. Merritt Island and Canaveral area got it much worse but being on the west side of a storm is actually much better than being on the east side. So thats about all one can hope for if a near direct hit is imminent
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Same in Miami Beach. I saw the eye about 75 miles offshore on Nexrad and we had only a few downed branches and palm fronds. However, Irma looks to have a larger hurricane force wind field.

 
El Floppo said:
holy crap- direct hit.

is her place concrete block? cripes... thops galore for her and the rest of hte islanders.
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most are concrete of some kind, some mixed with wood.  she went to a friends house that is all concrete.  basically a square rectangle with a flat roof that has very little overhang. all the windows are completely covered with 3/4" plywood with storm shutters behind those.   roofs and decks are usually wood, or prefab material of some kind, they are what become airborne, along with trees and cars and boats of course.  on my sister's property, there is a foot long terra cotta roof tile embedded 4" about half way up a palm tree from some lesser hurricane years ago.  

 
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El Floppo said:
anybody have news about Barbuda? last I checked, Antigua news said Antigua was safe, but hadn't heard from Barbuda since around midnight.
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Last I saw was someone on twitter allegedly quoting military personnel who said it had been wiped off the map.  I'd like to hope that's untrue/hyperbole.

 
Henry Ford said:
Last I saw was someone on twitter allegedly quoting military personnel who said it had been wiped off the map.  I'd like to hope that's untrue/hyperbole.
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They aren't expecting mass casualties. The govt. built a very strong storm shelter to fit the entire island.

 
all tolls in Florida were suspended yesterday until further notice. All toll roads are free until this crap is over.

 
Henry Ford said:
Last I saw was someone on twitter allegedly quoting military personnel who said it had been wiped off the map.  I'd like to hope that's untrue/hyperbole.
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omfg. hope that's not true.

just posted elsewhere that in spite of the Prime Minister making a statement that everything was fine and that they had weathered the storm... nobody in innernet-land has heard from barbuda since midnight. antiguans on twitter are terrifyingly desperate trying to get any news at all from friends and relatives over there... local news site's FB page is covered with comments from locals also desperately looking for ANY word about barbuda. PM is supposed to fly by chopter when the all-clear is given, which just happened. hopefully there's good news.

 
GFS and Euro match first 72 hours.  They have dropped more sonar buoys than they did trying to catch trying to locate Captain Ramius.  Seems to be helping getting the tracks to align.

 
So models are just in disagreement as to when that high pressure ridge breaks apart. The sooner it is, the more chance there is of an eastern florida grazing and a Charleston landfall, later and we are looking at a direct hit right into the middle of the bottom of the peninsula.
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Euro is forecasting a slowdown right as the NE quadrant of the storm (The strongest rain) gets into Miami, then a turn perhaps getting a direct hit from the left hand side of the city as it transits out to sea south of Orlando.  Other than a direct hit right at downtown this is probably worst $$$Damage case considering Charleston landfall seems likely on the back end.  

 
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PIK95 said:
The good news about that is the Baromentric Pressure reading if anything.
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Euro pressure is higher because it has it making landfall 8hrs sooner than others. 

Not as much time to get an epic bp but less time to evacuate. What is worse?

 
Enforcer said:
My stepfather lives in Christiansted (Virgin Islands north shore). This webcam is about two blocks from his condo on the water.

http://www.gotostcroix.com/live/

I was pretty nervous yesterday, but so far it looks like the worst has missed them by turning a bit north. *Whew*
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another st croix live feed.

both of the Anguilla live-feeds posted yesterday are down. based on other videos from the island, can only imagine what those beaches look like today. 

 
This is an outstanding article about interpreting and weighing the various spaghetti plots. It especially helps untangle the alphabet soup of plot descriptors you'll see on so many sites.

I'd post the article here, but it relies on having the graphic to look at, and I can't post the image into this thread. But I will post the explanations of the various 4-letter model descriptors (some strikeout text since graphic won't be shown here):
 

XTRP: This is not a model. It is simply a straight-line extrapolation of the storm's current direction at 2pm Tuesday.

TVCN, TVCX: These are useful, as they are consensus forecasts of global model tracks.

NHC: This is the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center.

TABD, TABM, TABS: These are simple statistical models, which are essentially useless for track forecasting.

NVGM: Useful, but the model is from about 8am ET, or 12 hours before Silver posted the graphic. Wildly out of date.

HMON: This is NOAA's new hurricane model, but it was badly wrong during Hurricane Harvey. Also 12 hours old. Essentially useless.

HWRF: This is NOAA's primary hurricane model, and while it's OK, it is nearly 12 hours old. Not useful.

COTC: A version of the US Navy's global model, which is kind of meh for hurricanes and is 12 hours old.

AVNO, AEMN: Two variants of NOAA's premiere global model, the GFS. Both are worth looking at, but again the forecasts are 12 hours old.

CMC, CEMN: Two variants of the Canadian global model, which is worth looking at, but again the forecasts are 12 hours old.

UKM (also sometimes called UKMET): The UK Met Office's global model, which is definitely worth looking at. But the forecasts are 12 hours old.

CLP5: Not a model at all. Just a forecast based on where storms in this location historically go.

...

Finally, the world's most accurate model, the European forecast system, is proprietary and not included on such plots.
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Beef Ravioli said:
So from reading this thread, it looks like Pensacola is in the clear from the major stuff, correct? 
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Going by current models -- yes.

Nothing's ever guaranteed ... but the current cold front pushing through Southern LA, MS, AL, and (soon) the FL Panhandle is protecting us from Irma. If you go outside early tomorrow morning, and the air feels bracing and unseasonably cool ... you'll know Pensacola is in the clear.

EDIT: That cold front is already covering Pensacola according to this 20-minute-old map   . Note: map at that link will change as time passes. I'm comfortable calling Pensacola safe.

.

 
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El Floppo said:
Does going over the mainland take some steam out of it? looks like its projected to hit just above the keys and cut across land due north to miami... wondering if that overland bit could take the punch out of it before it gets to the heavily populated area
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Yes to the bolded, but Miami doesn't seem to have a lot of land available southward to weaken Irma the way, say, Orlando and Gainesville do.

 
Doug B said:
Yes to the bolded, but Miami doesn't seem to have a lot of land available southward to weaken Irma the way, say, Orlando and Gainesville do.
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Storm surge wise, it would have to be better to approach Miami from the south than from the east, I'd think.
Winds suck, but strong buildings seem to hold up. The storm surge and flooding is what is deadliest.

 
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