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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (2 Viewers)

Capella said:
Local guy in Tampa who seems pretty sharp doesn't seem concerned about our area yet. I can't read the loons on twitter or Facebook, everybody has every city going under water. Geez. 
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Yeah.  Waiting for the photoshopped shark cruising down Bayshore pic to reemerge.

 
Capella said:
Local guy in Tampa who seems pretty sharp doesn't seem concerned about our area yet. I can't read the loons on twitter or Facebook, everybody has every city going under water. Geez. 
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One of our local guys swears by the Euro model. He'll be going bananas. My wife will probably go into Defcon 4 prep for leaving.

:sigh:

 
Tip for anyone leaving today/tomorrow: find the emergency shelters for the counties you'll be driving through to get out.  Drop a pin in them on a map on your phone/save the numbers and note whether they'll take your pets/family members/etc. In the worst case scenario (your car breaks down, someone hits it and renders it inoperable, whatever) you'll have a fully prepped plan in place and there's no need to freak out. 

 
[icon] said:
I feel like you may be signifcantly underestimating your travel time. My folks took 14 hours for a comparable distance (580mi) but they: 

1) Left early yesterday, beating the rush
2) were going from bradenton to northern georgia near TN. 

Traffic is MUCH worse now. You guys are leaving the worst area under mandatory evacuation and just driving into the gut of a mass exodus and will be in horribly clogged roads the entire way. If you make it in 20 hours, I'll be impressed.... 24 isn't out of the realm of possibility IMO. Good luck. Be prepared. 

 
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That's possible. We're planning for the worst and hoping for the best. 

I'm looking at Waze now and it's saying it will take 9 hours and that's going up the Turnpike and I-10. Google Maps is basically saying the same thing and they both take traffic into account. I do take those with a grain of salt but I have traveled long distances with Waze before and it does a good job dealing with traffic, accidents, delays, etc. 

I"m also thinking about heading over to Naples on 41 and then head north from there if things get really bad. 

Thanks Icon, we're prepared for a slog but that's better than the alternate at this point....for us at least.

 
Every single reliable model is converging on the NE part of this storm hitting Miami followed very likely by the eye as the storm slows down.  

The models can be more trusted now for this storm because they are dropping sonos and loons everywhere on the planet that could possibly impact this storm.  Usually they get this data 2x a day and are getting 4-6x a day.  If models were ever going to nail a storm track 3-4 days out with today's technology this is the storm that should produce those results.t

If in Miami if not in a secure fortified location you should run, not walk.  

 
culdeus said:
Every single reliable model is converging on the NE part of this storm hitting Miami followed very likely by the eye as the storm slows down.  

The models can be more trusted now for this storm because they are dropping sonos and loons everywhere on the planet that could possibly impact this storm.  Usually they get this data 2x a day and are getting 4-6x a day.  If models were ever going to nail a storm track 3-4 days out with today's technology this is the storm that should produce those results.t

If in Miami if not in a secure fortified location you should run, not walk.  
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These models still have huge question marks about other parts of the state and GA/SC/NC

 
Friend of mine lives in St Pete and said they started evacuations there, starting with mobile and A level homes. Looks like she's in Zone 1 and there are 5 total zones, so I don't think she's a part of this yet unless one of you guys can correct me. But what is an A level home?

 
Michael Brown said:
Friend of mine lives in St Pete and said they started evacuations there, starting with mobile and A level homes. Looks like she's in Zone 1 and there are 5 total zones, so I don't think she's a part of this yet unless one of you guys can correct me. But what is an A level home?
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Ok now the map is saying Zone A. How is she in Zone 1 if the Zones get lettered? Wtf Florida...

 
culdeus said:
Plenty of time to worry about those later. 
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I don't know about that...with the number of trees in GA/SC/NC and the projected path, that I-75 corridor is going to be in trouble.  The last two big storms (Hugo and Fran) that tracked inland (Floyd stayed on the coast) did a number on the trees.  If Irma follows this path there's going to be large swaths of the SE that are going to be without power at a minimum.  

 
Michael Brown said:
Friend of mine lives in St Pete and said they started evacuations there, starting with mobile and A level homes. Looks like she's in Zone 1 and there are 5 total zones, so I don't think she's a part of this yet unless one of you guys can correct me. But what is an A level home?
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A is evac

 
What the heck does a storm surge of 15-20 feet do to the Bahamas?
During Sandy the South Fork of Long Island was an island temporarily. Redfish pass was made by a hurricane and still exists.
That kind of surge in the Bahamas could remake maps.

 
So my mother left Naples to my bro's house in Jax. Now my mom, brother, SIL, two nieces are driving to Mobile, AL.

It's nuts.

 
Buddy just reported reading where the average travel time from Dade County, N on I-95 to the I-295/I-10 junction just south of Jacksonville is 52hrs.

 
Henry Ford said:
A couple have emerged.
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All those look bad for Savannah (mandatory evacuation already declared). Meanwhile, just across the state line, people are still out on the beach on Hilton Head, SC (5 miles north) trying to finish out their vacations. "We can leave on Saturday. It'll be fine." Effin nuts.

 
[icon] said:
Buddy just reported reading where the average travel time from Dade County, N on I-95 to the I-295/I-10 junction just south of Jacksonville is 52hrs.
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Which is why today is the last day to leave South Florida, really.  You leave any later, and you're risking not making it out before the storm hits.

 
Sammy3469 said:
I don't know about that...with the number of trees in GA/SC/NC and the projected path, that I-75 corridor is going to be in trouble.  The last two big storms (Hugo and Fran) that tracked inland (Floyd stayed on the coast) did a number on the trees.  If Irma follows this path there's going to be large swaths of the SE that are going to be without power at a minimum.  
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The question is why would you evac those areas that aren't expecting a storm surge type situation?  It would be like the Houston deal.  You can't just flush the whole SE area.  If looking at Cat 5 winds or overtopping surge then yes, run.  Otherwise get some water and food and whiskey.  

 
culdeus said:
The question is why would you evac those areas that aren't expecting a storm surge type situation?  It would be like the Houston deal.  You can't just flush the whole SE area.  If looking at Cat 5 winds or overtopping surge then yes, run.  Otherwise get some water and food and whiskey.  
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I don't know about evacuating, but I'd certainly be stocking up on things there.  After both Fran and Hugo, my parents were without power for numerous days and couldn't get out of their subdivision with all the downed trees.  NC sort of made some changes after those two (e.g. cut the trees back from I-40), but that I-75 corridor wasn't as affected.  I'd just be prepared and if your house is surrounded by trees, go to an interior room.  Both those storms were terrifying in RDU and that area got Cat 1 winds at their strongest.  

 
culdeus said:
The question is why would you evac those areas that aren't expecting a storm surge type situation?  It would be like the Houston deal.  You can't just flush the whole SE area.  If looking at Cat 5 winds or overtopping surge then yes, run.  Otherwise get some water and food and whiskey.  
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someone say whiskey?

 
DA RAIDERS said:
st john is pretty ####ed according to the early reports coming out. :(  
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oh crap. still glad your family is safe... but damn. starting to hear comments from St Maarten that it's also completely ####ed. Gov from Anguilla making similar statements and scared as #### about Jose.

Henry Ford said:
1 million in Puerto Rico without power, 56,000 without drinking water.  That's without a direct hit.
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amazing. 

culdeus said:
T&C looks like a direct hit.  
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dammit- this ####### thing is direct-hitting too many islands.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Anyone on the east coast of FL, I'm sorry.  I made the mistake of buying a house there, so now we're going to have a major hurricane burning the coast every year for eternity.
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Let me know when you move, so that I know it's safe. I'm in Orlando, but would like to retire to Cocoa Beach, somewhere within walking distance (or stumbling distance) to the Sandbar Grill.  :thumbup: :banned:

 
MindCrime said:
Let me know when you move, so that I know it's safe. I'm in Orlando, but would like to retire to Cocoa Beach, somewhere within walking distance (or stumbling distance) to the Sandbar Grill.  :thumbup: :banned:
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It would be ironic (and awfully sad) if that place got leveled by a Cat. 5 hurricane.

 
El Floppo said:
oh crap. still glad your family is safe... but damn. starting to hear comments from St Maarten that it's also completely ####ed. Gov from Anguilla making similar statements and scared as #### about Jose.

amazing. 

dammit- this ####### thing is direct-hitting too many islands.
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st john had no power for 3 months or something like that after marilyn.  i've never spent so much time on FB trying to get info and help people find their loved ones.  i've spent the last hour trying to help a lady in texas simply figure out what part of the island her daughter is on.  and it's the side that is still cut off from society.  really really sucks.

 
Not feeling as good today as I did yesterday regarding evacuation from palm beach county to Orlando. I may be screwed here too. 

 
Both Google Maps and Waze telling me it will take me 7 hours from my house to Atlanta if I take 528W to the FL Turnpike to 75, while my buddy is telling me 75 is a parking lot.  It says ~8 hours if I go 95N into South Carolina and then cut west to Atlanta, while [icon] is in here talking about 52 hour travel times up 95 between Dade and J'Ville.  WTF am I supposed to believe?  :rant:

 
MindCrime said:
Yes it would. But it is pretty small, wouldn't  take much to rebuild. Imagine what the "Irma Anniversary " parties would be like! They would need all of Sheppard Park. 
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Sure would.  I love that place.  A few years back, I took off work the first day of the NCAA tourney and showed up there at noon and drank hurricanes all day watching the games.  Blacked out around 9-10 PM and had to piece the rest of my night together using Foursquare check-ins because I couldn't remember a blessed thing.  I was checking in downtown at 3 AM; I still don't know how the hell I made it home.

 
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