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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

culdeus said:
Depends on who you call "they".  Euro models have had this thing west all week.  The less accurate models have had it east.  

The path it is on is a pretty dead ringer to how the Euro had this thing on Tuesday both in track and intensity.  The NHC cone has been spot on so far.  If it truly doesn't make landfall on the peninsula that would be a bit of a shock.
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If it doesn't go on land than it would just stay in water gaining strength until it hit northern fl or gulf shores I guess?

 
need2know said:
If it doesn't go on land than it would just stay in water gaining strength until it hit northern fl or gulf shores I guess?
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Will change the situation and bring storm surge to a much wider area, rather than one single catastrophic landfall.  Could look a lot like matthew with a Panama City Cat 1 hit. on the more extreme end of this logic.  

 
need2know said:
If it doesn't go on land than it would just stay in water gaining strength until it hit northern fl or gulf shores I guess?
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My meteorologist says it may hit shear and dry air that could weaken it as it's passing the Keys, even though it might still be over warm waters. Hope for the front to the west to push in and weaken it.

 
GregR said:
My meteorologist says it may hit shear and dry air that could weaken it as it's passing the Keys, even though it might still be over warm waters. Hope for the front to the west to push in and weaken it.
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Here's the problem with that

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-ir2.html

Already contacting the front, see that big curtain off and to the NE.  If this theory was correct you'd see it sort of busting Irma up as they contacted.  I mean if you squint you can see Irma sort of squeeze in on the north side, but it's not doing a lot of work, and running out of time to do any lasting damage as it's nearly out to sea.

I mean, watch as she turns north for a bit, when doing this she hits the shear and says, #### you i'll just go due west.  kthksbye

Once the shear gets more east look for her to start that track back north (NOTE THE COMMENTS IN THIS POST ARE MOSTLY MINE PARAPHRASING OTHERS THAT KNOW ####, YMMV I haven't been drinking yet so you have that going for you)

 
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GregR said:
My meteorologist says it may hit shear and dry air that could weaken it as it's passing the Keys, even though it might still be over warm waters. Hope for the front to the west to push in and weaken it.
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I hope that's true. But intensity forecasting has more inaccuracy than path forecasting.

 
culdeus said:
Here's the problem with that

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/h5-loop-ir2.html

Already contacting the front, see that big curtain off and to the NE.  If this theory was correct you'd see it sort of busting Irma up as they contacted.  I mean if you squint you can see Irma sort of squeeze in on the north side, but it's not doing a lot of work, and running out of time to do any lasting damage as it's nearly out to sea.
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What the hell is that thing forming behind Jose?

 
Underachievers said:
This is the most hyped storm in history, that has the potential to be the most over hyped come Monday morning.
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Maybe, but you know what? The potential on this is so high and margins are razor thin and beyond our abilities that it has to be this way.  At this point meteorology has to become a little less hard science and has to become a little more social science. If you hem and haw and give folks in extremely vulnerable positions geography wise a mixed message, and you're wrong on the bad side. Folks die and you're living with that.  Read about Isaac Cline and the Galveston Hurricane. We're talking 50 miles making all the difference and multiple days out. No thanks.

 
Uwe Blab said:
Maybe, but you know what? The potential on this is so high and margins are razor thin and beyond our abilities that it has to be this way.  At this point meteorology has to become a little less hard science and has to become a little more social science. If you hem and haw and give folks in extremely vulnerable positions geography wise a mixed message, and you're wrong on the bad side. Folks die and you're living with that.  Read about Isaac Cline and the Galveston Hurricane. We're talking 50 miles making all the difference and multiple days out. No thanks.
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If it gets people out that may have stayed and died it's totally worth the hype

 
SoBeDad said:
I hope that's true. But intensity forecasting has more inaccuracy than path forecasting.
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Yes, and he said the intensity is the biggest uncertainty right now.  The interaction with the front on the west won't happen until it's further north, assuming it happens at all.

Also, Weather Channel just made a similar comment about the front to the west and the shear effect it may have.

 
[icon] said:
Purely hypothetical, but a recent article saying that category 4/5 hit to Tampa could be worse than Katrina: 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climate-change/?utm_term=.701cf2d94881

i only post given the track toward Tampa landfall looking increasingly likely :(
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My brother is in Tampa and I texted him today to see how high his friends house (presumably solid, newer house with hurricane windows) is above ground and if he's ok with a Surge of 5-8'. 

His response. "We are miles from the gulf. We'll be fine. Thx for messaging me. Ill let u know how its going."

Is his risk wind and not really water? Did people evacuate Tampa that aren't on the coast?

 
need2know said:
I would think the more it's over water the worse this storm is going to get
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Being over water = bad.  But it isn't the only factor.   We get daily tropical weather updates because of having assets in the Gulf. A lot of storms spend all of their time over water warm enough to spawn a hurricane, but don't turn into hurricanes because they encounter shear that tears the storm apart.

Which doesn't mean Irma is going to tear apart and not hurt Florida. It just means, if there's enough shear and dry air, it COULD potentially weaken Irma more than being over water strengthens it.

Again, this is the most uncertain part of the forecast (meterologist's words not mine), so let's just hope at this point.

 
Johnny Rock said:
My brother is in Tampa and I texted him today to see how high his friends house (presumably solid, newer house with hurricane windows) is above ground and if he's ok with a Surge of 5-8'. 

His response. "We are miles from the gulf. We'll be fine. Thx for messaging me. Ill let u know how its going."

Is his risk wind and not really water? Did people evacuate Tampa that aren't on the coast?
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How far is he from Tampa Bay? 

 
Johnny Rock said:
My brother is in Tampa and I texted him today to see how high his friends house (presumably solid, newer house with hurricane windows) is above ground and if he's ok with a Surge of 5-8'. 

His response. "We are miles from the gulf. We'll be fine. Thx for messaging me. Ill let u know how its going."

Is his risk wind and not really water? Did people evacuate Tampa that aren't on the coast?
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http://hcflgov.net/en/residents/public-safety/emergency-management/stay-safe

From this site I believe you can get an update based on an address for his house if you have the actual address.  If you don't and know where he is you might be able to figure it out indirectly.

 
Johnny Rock said:
My brother is in Tampa and I texted him today to see how high his friends house (presumably solid, newer house with hurricane windows) is above ground and if he's ok with a Surge of 5-8'. 

His response. "We are miles from the gulf. We'll be fine. Thx for messaging me. Ill let u know how its going."

Is his risk wind and not really water? Did people evacuate Tampa that aren't on the coast?
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I did 

 
Johnny Rock said:
My brother is in Tampa and I texted him today to see how high his friends house (presumably solid, newer house with hurricane windows) is above ground and if he's ok with a Surge of 5-8'. 

His response. "We are miles from the gulf. We'll be fine. Thx for messaging me. Ill let u know how its going."

Is his risk wind and not really water? Did people evacuate Tampa that aren't on the coast?
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Here's a topographic map of Tampa if you know about where he is you can check the elevation. You have to zoom in a couple of times to make out the contours. But it doesn't take too long before I'm seeing 30, 50, and 75 feet contours.  My brother can see the bay from an upstairs window south of Tampa and he's over 80 feet above sea level. 

Edit to add the link. @Johnny Rock

 
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I kept getting aggravated they show the storm surge numbers but never had a legend to show how far - so I finally used my map and compared to what they are showing.  10 miles inland in Naples can have 9+ foot storm surge.   :shock:   :shock:

 
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culdeus said:
@GregR

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/wv-animated.gif

Even better animation.  Showing contact.  She just says do you even lift bro?
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The meteorologists are talking about this interaction possibly happening in the Florida straight and around the keys.  And say this is the part of the forecast that is most uncertain. I don't imagine your animation has anything in it that they haven't already included in coming to their conclusion.

Let's not make a mountain out of a molehill. (Or even a Moe-hill).  Someone asked if it would just strengthen if it's over water up there. The meteorologists aren't sure yet. I let him know. Neither of us are meteorologists, it's pointless to argue this too much.

 
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need2know said:
I'm wondering how this will effect my family.  I live in hsv al.  They close schools for severe thunderstorms all the time.
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The problem for our area is all the huge trees.  I have a few trees that I'd be worried about if we get 40-50+ winds - we've heard predictions of gusts well over that.  

 
Other issue for Atlanta is traffic with evacuees. People will start heading back South Monday night or Tuesday morning

 
AAABatteries said:
I kept getting aggravated they show the storm surge numbers but never had a legend to show how far - so I finally used my map and compared to what they are showing.  10 miles inland in Naples can have 9+ foot storm surge.   :shock:   :shock:
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I think the surge would be 9 foot near the coast and less inland. The surge travels up the canals and rivers.

 
"The French territory of St. Martin was being sent hundreds of more soldiers and police to restore order, French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe said Saturday. St. Martin saw several people killed and vast damage to homes, electricity and water supplies. The island's jail was also reportedly destroyed and its 250 inmates remained at large"

 
Doctor Detroit said:
"The French territory of St. Martin was being sent hundreds of more soldiers and police to restore order, French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe said Saturday. St. Martin saw several people killed and vast damage to homes, electricity and water supplies. The island's jail was also reportedly destroyed and its 250 inmates remained at large"
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Best bet: somewhere on the island. Start looking there.

 
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