*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

[MindCrime]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090912&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=164

Holy ####. That hits Tampa moving northeast, right into central Florida, engulfing the entire state as it goes north.

 

[GregR]

But if you look just a little further east just off the coast of Africa, you see another depression that very well could become Lee in the not too distant future.  Already tracking it on the current disturbances map

Disturbance #38 is leaving Africa and forecast to follow #37 northwest into the Atlantic, as of a forecast yesterday.

 

[culdeus]

Joe Bastardi‏Verified account @BigJoeBastardi 
GFS has 38 mb fall by landfall. and is analyzed 5 mb too high. ECMWF has pressure lower than Donna.Feel this drops another 25-35 mb

ELI5

"GFS has 38 mb fall by landfall. and is analyzed 5 mb too high." - GFS (A model) started their run 5mb higher than what the latest flight showed so it has a high error.  With a correct start point they might have stated an even lower pressure at landfall. (Note: GFS has a bullseye on Tampa right now)

ECMWF has pressure lower than Donna - ECMWF (The Euro model) is showing lower pressure than Donna.  This is just to level set vs. other storms with similar tracks.

Feel this drops another 25-35 mb - Looking at models he's seeing a big pressure fall in next 8hrs.  Pressure = strength = storm surge and wind (usually) follows.

 

[PIK95]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090912&fh=240&xpos=0&ypos=164

That's a joke, right?

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

That's a joke, right?

Drag the slider button at the top.. that's not Irma, it's Jose

 

[James Daulton]

Calm her down and get her aroused by showing her one of my selfies.

You trying to get her to be abstinent bro?

 

[James Daulton]

Just take her for a romantic dinner at that restaurant where you met and all will be right as rain again

Mickey D's always does the trick for us!

 

[Sputnikv8]

Drag the slider button at the top.. that's not Irma, it's Jose

Thank you.  I was confused as well.  Culd does inundate us with info, so, I got a little lost about what I was looking at.

Love ya Culd!  Doin good work in here.  I thought you were an overzealous squirrel in Clash, but, dang...you just dive headlong into anything you do.

 

[dickey moe]

####! 

Bigger than one of Al Romer's BMs.

 

[culdeus]

Is the end of the world feed at the keys down now for good?  Or is it getting crushed by viewers?

 

[Nick Vermeil]

Thank you.  I was confused as well.  Culd does inundate us with info, so, I got a little lost about what I was looking at.

Love ya Culd!  Doin good work in here.  I thought you were an overzealous squirrel in Clash, but, dang...you just dive headlong into anything you do.

Empty the ashtray culdeus. Take a break and get another juice box. 

 

[PIK95]

Drag the slider button at the top.. that's not Irma, it's Jose

I know.  And that has it probably taking down my beach cabana next week.  No Likey.

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

I know.  And that has it probably taking down my beach cabana next week.  No Likey.

 Still plenty of time for Jose to die a painful death before then. Let's hope. 

 

[GregR]

Thank you.  I was confused as well.  Culd does inundate us with info, so, I got a little lost about what I was looking at.

Love ya Culd!  Doin good work in here.  I thought you were an overzealous squirrel in Clash, but, dang...you just dive headlong into anything you do.

That totally needs to be his village name from now on.

 

[PIK95]

That totally needs to be his village name from now on.

Wasn't one of mine Squirrel Legion?  I tried to get back in but the door was always locked.

 

[Sputnikv8]

The twitter feed from that Timmer dude cruising the Keys...wow.  The roads he is driving on are creepy how close they are to the ocean normally.  Then you add the chop and the level that is already rising is just amazing to think what adding a mere 3 feet will do.

 

[culdeus]

Lol

Gonna go workout.  Then taking the wife out. Hoping for a ewrc in my pants. 

 

[GregR]

Wasn't one of mine Squirrel Legion?  I tried to get back in but the door was always locked.

They'll lower the trophy count if you need, just ask in the thread.

I've got 5 villages in FBG4. Played for about 2-3 weeks but I haven't paid attention to it in awhile. Can let you in there but no one else is active.

 

[The Ref]

Storm has hit wpb right at 7 pm

 

[Michael Brown]

Drag the slider button at the top.. that's not Irma, it's Jose

Sorry for being dumb. There are two storm systems in that model. One is heading for Tampa (I assumed that one was Irma) and one is heading for NY/NJ (I assumed that one was Jose). Are you saying the one heading for Tampa is Jose and the one heading for NYC is Lee??? 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

Sorry for being dumb. There are two storm systems in that model. One is heading for Tampa (I assumed that one was Irma) and one is heading for NY/NJ (I assumed that one was Jose). Are you saying the one heading for Tampa is Jose and the one heading for NYC is Lee??? 

Negative. I thought PIK thought (as I did at first) that it was showing Irma hitting around the northeast US. That is Jose. I think.  

 

[culdeus]

Sorry for being dumb. There are two storm systems in that model. One is heading for Tampa (I assumed that one was Irma) and one is heading for NY/NJ (I assumed that one was Jose). Are you saying the one heading for Tampa is Jose and the one heading for NYC is Lee??? 

I think jose is supposed to die relatively soon. The doomcasted storm hitting long island would be Lee assuming its not some love child of Jose and lee together.  Ill check later. I mean thats a 10 day track. Error is basically the surface of the earth. 

 

[GoBirds]

Wonder if Cuba still exists?

 

[Michael Brown]

I think jose is supposed to die relatively soon. The doomcasted storm hitting long island would be Lee assuming its not some love child of Jose and lee together.  Ill check later. I mean thats a 10 day track. Error is basically the surface of the earth. 

  thanks

 

[GoBirds]

Storm has hit wpb right at 7 pm

Assume that's just the start of it? Good luck. 

 

[SoBeDad]

Newest GFS has a Tampa bullseye

I know 2 people who evacuated from Miami to family in Tampa. One evacuated again to a hotel in Ocala and the other to family in Orlando.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Assume that's just the start of it? Good luck. 

Yep, outer bands over South Florida now.  Multiple tornado warnings out there.  Just getting started.

 

[cosjobs]

"The French territory of St. Martin was being sent hundreds of more soldiers and police to restore order, French Prime Minister Édouard Philippe said Saturday. St. Martin saw several people killed and vast damage to homes, electricity and water supplies. The island's jail was also reportedly destroyed and its 250 inmates remained at large"

They should have just sent one Texas Ranger.

 

[need2know]

Yep, outer bands over South Florida now.  Multiple tornado warnings out there.  Just getting started.

Weather channel saying multiple tornadoes  already reported around Miami

 

[Brady Marino]

They should have just sent one Texas Ranger.

We're trying to save the island, not sink it into the sea.

 

[jrt103]

Live cam in Key West

 

[cosjobs]

The twitter feed from that Timmer dude cruising the Keys...wow.  The roads he is driving on are creepy how close they are to the ocean normally.  Then you add the chop and the level that is already rising is just amazing to think what adding a mere 3 feet will do.

thanks for the link

 

[Kal El]

I think jose is supposed to die relatively soon. The doomcasted storm hitting long island would be Lee assuming its not some love child of Jose and lee together.  Ill check later. I mean thats a 10 day track. Error is basically the surface of the earth. 

Didn't the GFS predict Lee running into Florida like, yesterday? 

 

[Brady Marino]

thanks for the link

First result when I search for "that timmer dude".

 

[Sputnikv8]

First result when I search for "that timmer dude".

https://twitter.com/reedtimmeraccu?lang=en

 

[Underachievers]

Live cam in Key West

Just lost signal.

 

[cosjobs]

Live cam in Key West

that didn't last long

 

[BustedKnuckles]

Lol

Gonna go workout.  Then taking the wife out. Hoping for a ewrc in my pants. 

you even lift bro? jk...if thats you in the avatar ur jacked

 

[jrt103]

Another

lets see how long this one lasts!

 

[GregR]

From the roll call thread:

Live two friends rooftop cam in Key West https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc

Live Mallory Square Cam in Key West: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OUhXfVNW-Jg

Live cam in Marathon FL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaErEed7UPI

Duval Street Key West...DESERTED!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PbAh78NvJZk

Mallory Square cam down now. The others still up. Im keeping the two friends cam up on my laptop...Front St looks eerie all deserted with the lights on.

Guy sleeping on the street in the Duval one.

 

[Kilgore Trout]

It seems to me that the storm is a little west of where it should be according to the forecast. It has also slowed down, so the turn north is likely happening soon. Hoping it can be pushed far enough west that a Tampa landfall is avoided (nothing official about this, just looking and hoping).

 

[Sputnikv8]

From the roll call thread:

Guy sleeping on the street in the Duval one.

wow... sleeping or.....

 

[PIK95]

From the roll call thread:

I just saw like five people in 30 seconds.  That can't be good.

 

[GregR]

wow... sleeping or.....

Yeah, he was sitting up a little bit ago.

 

[GoBirds]

https://twitter.com/reedtimmeraccu?lang=en

Wow this guy is nuts. 

 

[culdeus]

For all this, it won't really get going till tomorrow about now till maybe dawn Monday. 

 

[lod001]

appears to still be working.

 

[dozer]

Another view of Sleeping Guy

 

[Sputnikv8]

TWC... that's lame.  They just ran an ad for "The Hurricane spin broom".  ?

 

[jrt103]

There must be drier places to sleep than right there