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*** Official 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** (1 Viewer)

culdeus said:
Storm is changing so quickly.  Nobody has a clue whats next. Worried this track has shifted off so much that an atlantic push is in play. The shear was way more heavy than forecast. 

Need a kill shot. 
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meaning what? bouncing over to the Eastern coast and restrengthening? 

 
[scooter] said:
If they're armed, they don't really need to be posing as utility personnel. :shrug:
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If true, pretty sure they act like the utility personnel to get in the door and THEN show the guns. Also if true and caught, they should be executed.

 
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greedygoat said:
culdeus said:
Sounds like fake news. Jmo
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HOA was alerting homeowners as it just happened in the neighborhood. My friends in laws live there. I have no reason not to believe him. 
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Okay. Then when you press for further details, the HOA says "Well, it didn't actually happen in our neighborhood, but we heard that it happened in the neighborhood down the road." Then you track down that neighborhood, and they heard that it happened 2 towns over. This is exactly how urban legends spread.

You ever notice that these stories hardly ever start with "It happened to my friends"? There's always at least 2 steps between the storyteller and the evidence. In this case, it's "The neighbor(1) told the HOA(2), who told my friend's in-laws(3), who told my friends(4)."

Always be skeptical of stories that don't have a direct source.

 
Billy Bats said:
Hate to sound crass during a terrible situation, but is he(anyone) surprised? I can't believe there's one person on any of the islands. Godspeed to everyone in the path of this thing. 
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Yes I think everyone expected it. Just relaying actual situation.

 
James Daulton said:
Ugh, and my stupid BIL didn't even put up the hurricane shutters when they left 2 weeks ago.
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It's not going to matter GB.  I have a friend who bought two houses in Marathon right next to each other, renovated, rent out etc.  As of three hours ago, the water was up to the roofs at both.  I am absolutely confident my FIL's house on Big Pine is under water as well.

 
BeaverCleaver said:
Atlantic push? What are you talking about?
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No idea....this thing is bee lining up the West Coast and Naples has a bullseye on it right now as well as Tampa getting hit hard......then up through the top half of the state as a CAT 1......then topical storm for GA.

Atlantic push? Huh??

Eye wall is 90 miles away from Miami but the size of this storm is massive. I am getting 70 mile per hour gust's in NW Broward right now.

 
Have a nephew in Orlando. What's the expected impact there?

Sister's in-laws are in Dade City. I'm not familiar with Florida but it doesn't look good for there does it?

 
KingPrawn said:
Have a nephew in Orlando. What's the expected impact there?

Sister's in-laws are in Dade City. I'm not familiar with Florida but it doesn't look good for there does it?
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This is my first rodeo and am just a bit north, but I suspect it's going to be winds and loss of power.  Don't think we have to worry too much about water outside of local flooding from the rain.  Last I heard it would be 75+ gusts in the area, up to 90 over several hours.

 
Check this recon

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF306-3011A-IRMA.png

You can clearly see just how strong the east side of the storm is.  The darts just west of the wall are pretty meh.  I think people are seeing the people in the far west keys show low wind and are getting cocky.   The Keys maybe got super lucky that they missed the "dirty" side of this storm which seems to be weakening due to the ridge.  The strength here is the east side of the storm.

If you are "wishcasting" you want this thing to edge east a bit in order to spare Tampa/Naples the worst, maybe they see a night like the keys did but not catastrophic surge.  Somebody has to get hit though.

 
BeaverCleaver said:
It's moving north.  Why do you think it could move back to the Atlantic? Are you a hurricane expert?
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If you've been in the thread the last week, you'd know the answer to that.

It may not turn out that way, but given everything Culdeus has been posting in here, I'm inclined to believe that that was up to the minute forecast based on quality info.

 
KingPrawn said:
Have a nephew in Orlando. What's the expected impact there?

Sister's in-laws are in Dade City. I'm not familiar with Florida but it doesn't look good for there does it?
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Dade City about 60 miles sw of Orlando may be a little more intense there as it is west but still probably wind is biggest worry and local flooding.

 
culdeus said:
Check this recon

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF306-3011A-IRMA.png

You can clearly see just how strong the east side of the storm is.  The darts just west of the wall are pretty meh.  I think people are seeing the people in the far west keys show low wind and are getting cocky.   The Keys maybe got super lucky that they missed the "dirty" side of this storm which seems to be weakening due to the ridge.  The strength here is the east side of the storm.

If you are "wishcasting" you want this thing to edge east a bit in order to spare Tampa/Naples the worst, maybe they see a night like the keys did but not catastrophic surge.  Somebody has to get hit though.
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The eye seems to have reformed as a triangle.

 
BeaverCleaver said:
It's moving north.  Why do you think it could move back to the Atlantic? Are you a hurricane expert?
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I watch the models, I have a sense how they are built and watch for the things to unfold as they predict.  When they don't unfold how they predict I comment on it.  When they unfold how they predict I also comment on it.  

I watch all the live satellite feeds and all the live data coming from the flights going in and out of the hurricane for the latest info and have been pretty religiously following this thing for the last 5 days and have a good feel at least how the models will move, or where they look to be moving and what they maybe missed.  

I'm not a pro, 95% of what I say is aggregate information or mostly raw data as it becomes noteworthy.

 
The Commish said:
This is my first rodeo and am just a bit north, but I suspect it's going to be winds and loss of power.  Don't think we have to worry too much about water outside of local flooding from the rain.  Last I heard it would be 75+ gusts in the area, up to 90 over several hours.
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Thanks. That's what I suspected. Very high winds. Lots of rain. And maybe loss of power.

 
El Floppo said:
HFS. :shock:   :(

Not what I was hoping for.

Isn't there an FFA family member on cudjo key?
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Not sure, if you watched Levi's video this morning he talks about how this storm is dragging the storm surge behind it now.  So to see no major surge last night, and now as it passes the keys to see it behind it makes sense based on his info.

And this is coming as tide is going up.  

Any reports about 7mi bridge?  

 
NHC 1PM UPDATE

LOCATION...25.4N 81.7W ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF NAPLES FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

350 at 9mph is a decent turn to the north from last advisory.  

933 is a bomb.  

On track to bullseye Naples at 6:15pm.  

 
Will not get a look at NE of the storm with the hurricane hunter plane.  The turbulence is too strong and the plane can't handle it.  Wow.  

 
culdeus said:
I watch the models, I have a sense how they are built and watch for the things to unfold as they predict.  When they don't unfold how they predict I comment on it.  When they unfold how they predict I also comment on it.  

I watch all the live satellite feeds and all the live data coming from the flights going in and out of the hurricane for the latest info and have been pretty religiously following this thing for the last 5 days and have a good feel at least how the models will move, or where they look to be moving and what they maybe missed.  

I'm not a pro, 95% of what I say is aggregate information or mostly raw data as it becomes noteworthy.
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Keep doing your thing culdeus.  Ignore the :hophead: ...you've been great for the thread   :thumbup:  

 
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El Floppo said:
If you've been in the thread the last week, you'd know the answer to that.

It may not turn out that way, but given everything Culdeus has been posting in here, I'm inclined to believe that that was up to the minute forecast based on quality info.
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He's had pretty much every city in Florida resting in peace the past couple weeks.

 
flranger said:
I'm not sure if these bozos in the keys realize this or not, but even if they make it through, highly likely that US1 is compromised.  Getting back to the Keys is likely to be incredibly difficult.
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Bumping this after seeing the surge pic above.  Overseas highway may be underseas right now.  Compromise very possible in those situations.  If so, there will be no direct route in from mainland to provide assistance.

 
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