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***Official*** 2018 World Cup thread (and Drinking Guide) (2 Viewers)

If that is not a penalty then just remove the penalty kick altogether from the game.

 
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AAABatteries said:
Agree on 1st match but after that it's kind of a crapshoot, no?  Somebody like @QuizGuy66 could probably tell us.
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Okay here's the breakdown (all records are shown as W-L-T, i.e. the American way, i.e. the way is should always be done):

1930 Uruguay - had to win its group and did so with a 2-0-0 record

1934 Italy - there were no groups only a straight 16-team bracket

1938 Italy - there were no groups only a straight 16-team bracket

1950 Uruguay - had to win its group to make the round robin finals and did so with a 1-0-0 record

--------starting here it was possible for 2nd-place teams to advance to the knock-out round

1954 West Germany - finished second in group with 1-1-0 record (won a one-game playoff with Turkey to advance so they sorta had a 2-1-0 record - now how the heck they could have 4-team groups and decide not to do a full round robin in the group stage is beyond me)

1958 Brazil - won their group with a 2-0-1 record

1962 Brazil - won their group with a 2-0-1 record

1966 England - won their group with a 2-0-1 record

1970 Brazil - won their group with a 3-0-0 record

1974 West Germany - finished 2nd in their group with a 2-1-0 record

1978 Argentina - finished 2nd in their group with a 2-1-0 record

1982 Italy - finished 2nd in their group with a 0-0-3 record (advanced based on goals scored)

----------for 1986, 1990, and 1994 tournaments there were 3rd-place teams that advanced to the knock-out stage

1986 Argentina - finished 1st in their group with a 2-0-1 record

1990 West Germany - finished 1st in their group with a 2-0-1 record

1994 Brazil - finished 1st in their group with a 2-0-1 record

----------------------------start of 32-team era we have all grown to love and will sorely miss and once again 3rd-place teams cannot advance

1998 France - finished 1st in their group with a 3-0-0 record

2002 Brazil - finished 1st in their group with a 3-0-0 record

2006 Italy - finished 1st in their group with a 2-0-1 record

2010 Spain - finished 1st in their group witha 2-1-0 record

2014 Germany - finished 1st in their group with a 2-0-1 record

So in 16 World Cups where a team finishing 2nd in a group stage could still go on to win the championship it has only happened 4 times.  And it has not happened in any of the last 8 World Cups prior to this year.  So yeah if Germany doesn't catch a break of a Mexico loss and does not come back to win the group history would seem to be against them. 

-QG

 
I think they might give a yellow to a swiss player if he hacks off one of Neymar's legs.  Well actually maybe just a warning on the 1st leg.

-QG

 
QuizGuy66 said:
I think they might give a yellow to a swiss player if he hacks off one of Neymar's legs.  Well actually maybe just a warning on the 1st leg.

-QG
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Mmm...yellow Swiss...

 
Odds from William Hill Sports book at Monmouth Park - this was as of 6/14/18

Brazil 3-1

Germany 7-2

Argentina 9-2

Spain 5-1

France 11-2

Belgium 9-1

Portugal 15-1

England 16-1

Uruguay 30-1

Mexico 30-1

Croatia 35-1

Colombia 35-1

Poland 45-1

Russia 45-1

Peru 75-1

Switzerland 100-1

Denmark 100-1

Sweden 150-1

Iceland 150-1

Serbia 175-1

Egypt 175-1

Senegal 175-1

Nigeria 200-1

Japan 250-1

Costa Rica 350-1

Iran 350-1

Australia 400-1

South Korea 500-1

Morocco 500-1

Panama 750-1

Tunisia 750-1

Saudi Arabia 1000-1

-QG

 
I love the way the Swiss treated Neymar. Also like the fact the refs let it go. When he tries a trick while surrounded by three Swiss at midfield, then tries to barge THROUGH THEM and falls...that's not a foul. 

 
JaxBill said:
Sooooo.....Germany and Brazil combined for 1 goal today.
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Can't take too much from the first game, but Germany were far more disappointing, and not just because they lost. Mexico was a better opponent that Switzerland, but they could have scored 4 or more if they had decent finishing today.

 
Sinn Fein said:
:lmao:
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So you actually think that Switzerland is the sixth best team in the world?  At the beginning of the tournament, they were ~+17,000 to win.  Brazil was +430 and there were 14 other teams that were more expensive than Switzerland. 

 
Goals by Club

Real Madrid (ESP) - 5

Atlético Madrid (ESP) - 4

Villarreal (ESP) - 2

Arsenal Tula (RUS) - 1

Aston Villa (ENG 2) - 1

Augsburg (GER) - 1

Barcelona (ESP) - 1

CSKA Moscow (RUS) - 1

Hoffenheim (GER) - 1

Krasnodar (RUS) - 1

Manchester City (ENG) - 1

PSV Eindhoven (NED) - 1

RB Leipzig (GER) - 1

Roma (ITA) - 1

(OG) Bursaspor (TUR) - 1

(OG) Las Palmas (ESP) - 1

(OG) St. Pauli (GER 2) - 1

Goals by League

La Liga - 12

Russian Premier League - 3

Bundesliga - 3

English Championship - 1

Eredivisie - 1

Premier League - 1

Serie A - 1

(OG) 2. Bundesliga - 1

(OG) La Liga - 1

(OG) Turkish Süper Lig - 1

 
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chet said:
So you actually think that Switzerland is the sixth best team in the world?  At the beginning of the tournament, they were ~+17,000 to win.  Brazil was +430 and there were 14 other teams that were more expensive than Switzerland. 
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Odds are set to maximize profits for the house, especially on 1 in 32 tournament futures bets

ETA:  The Swiss like money too much to waste it on sucker bets

 
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I missed the game. Did Brazil dominate and didn't convert chances or were the Swiss holding their own? I'm curious, especially given the early comments upthread that Brazil should win the whole thing

 
gianmarco said:
I missed the game. Did Brazil dominate and didn't convert chances or were the Swiss holding their own? I'm curious, especially given the early comments upthread that Brazil should win the whole thing
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Brazil danced like Brazil dance.  Swiss stayed organized.  Brazil were the better team - but you get paid to score more goals than the other team - and they did not.

I did think it was a blatant penalty against Jesus in the 2nd half that was not called, which should have resulted in a Brazil win.  (I did not think the Swiss goal should have been called back - but I know some that that was a foul before the header).

 
chet said:
So you actually think that Switzerland is the sixth best team in the world?  At the beginning of the tournament, they were ~+17,000 to win.  Brazil was +430 and there were 14 other teams that were more expensive than Switzerland. 
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The line on this game finishing in a draw is far more relevant, right?  Switzerland has almost no chance to win the tournament (as indicated by those odds), but a 1-1 draw in the opening game, while an upset, is not shocking. 

 
CletiusMaximus said:
The line on this game finishing in a draw is far more relevant, right?  Switzerland has almost no chance to win the tournament (as indicated by those odds), but a 1-1 draw in the opening game, while an upset, is not shocking. 
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The discussion morphed into whether the FIFA rankings are accurate and my contention is that they're garbage and Switzerland isn't close to being the sixth best soccer playing country.  So for that discussion, odds to win the cup are more relevant IMO.

However, for the original question which essentially was did Brazil underperform expectations or did Switzerland outperform, I agree that the odds for the game are more important. What do you think?  Was Brazil unlucky to draw that game?

 
chet said:
The discussion morphed into whether the FIFA rankings are accurate and my contention is that they're garbage and Switzerland isn't close to being the sixth best soccer playing country.  So for that discussion, odds to win the cup are more relevant IMO.

However, for the original question which essentially was did Brazil underperform expectations or did Switzerland outperform, I agree that the odds for the game are more important. What do you think?  Was Brazil unlucky to draw that game?
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I think most everyone agrees FIFA rankings don't bear much relation to real-world quality on the field at any given time. I believe they just announced a revision to the ranking system that should help that a bit.  I only saw the beginning of the Brazil game today so can't really comment on it. I think the first game of these tournaments is often a bit shaky. Neymar hasn't played for 3 months other than one friendly I believe.  I also think the big teams treat this tournament more like a marathon than a sprint.  The goal is to get through, preferably in 1st, all healthy with plenty left in the tank.

 
Neymar was infuriating to watch. Played selfishly, negligently, and for the most part was a subpar performer. Sure, part of it was due to the Swiss players' ridiculously cynical defensive tactics. But even when he wasnt being fouled, he was playing like a prima donna. Difficult to watch. 

 
Native said:
Neymar was infuriating to watch. Played selfishly, negligently, and for the most part was a subpar performer. Sure, part of it was due to the Swiss players' ridiculously cynical defensive tactics. But even when he wasnt being fouled, he was playing like a prima donna. Difficult to watch. 
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That's part of his schtick

 
gianmarco said:
I missed the game. Did Brazil dominate and didn't convert chances or were the Swiss holding their own? I'm curious, especially given the early comments upthread that Brazil should win the whole thing
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I wouldn't say Brazil dominated, but the run of play easily favored them.  

 
CletiusMaximus said:
I think most everyone agrees FIFA rankings don't bear much relation to real-world quality on the field at any given time. I believe they just announced a revision to the ranking system that should help that a bit.  I only saw the beginning of the Brazil game today so can't really comment on it. I think the first game of these tournaments is often a bit shaky. Neymar hasn't played for 3 months other than one friendly I believe.  I also think the big teams treat this tournament more like a marathon than a sprint.  The goal is to get through, preferably in 1st, all healthy with plenty left in the tank.
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I wonder over what period of time they're going to use to evaluate the teams. ELO certainly seems like the better model to use, assuming there's a big enough database for a fair mathematical assessment. The problem I see, and one which the old rankings tried to address, was that teams only play about 10 international games a year (guessing here) and a team's strength might be significantly better or worse than it was at the beginning of a four-year cycle. But maybe ELO is better at that, too, I dunno.

 
chet said:
The discussion morphed into whether the FIFA rankings are accurate and my contention is that they're garbage and Switzerland isn't close to being the sixth best soccer playing country. 
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There was no discussion. It was just you getting laughed at via smiley.

 
Rankings don't matter right now but they're something to talk about over the next four years.  Switzerland and Mexico helped their future rankings under any system.

 
I expect Brazil to be Brazil but despite some cynical fouling I thought the Swiss were excellent.  Bahrami kept Neymar in check and they didn't park the bus - very impressed with them.  Brazil is fine and as long as they don't get knocked out by Germany early they should go deep.

 
:lmao:  at Rob Stone asking Lalas "wouldn't you have fouled Neymar if you were playing him" - of course he would, he probably would have been sent off.

And you know what - Brazil has plenty of talent on the pitch.  They don't depend on him like Portugal does Ronaldo - move the ball quicker and stop #####ing about fouls.  The ref called 10 of them against him as it was.

 
Portugal v Argentina. Messi and Ronaldo get red carded for engaging in a midfield tickle fight in the opening minute. Who wins the game?

 
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