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Official 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Thread - Iota (4 Viewers)

Senor Schmutzig said:
11 am update shows the more western track.

Still going to go out and buy a couple 5 gallon fuel tanks today. Good to have when something stronger comes along. I tend to pick up 1-2 additional items every season. 

11am National Hurricane Center
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Likely just a 1-2 day rain event. Yes, preparation for possible storm later in the year. For many people who live near the coast, will their friends and families want them to join in a closed environment for up to 24 hours?

 
SoBeDad said:
Likely just a 1-2 day rain event. Yes, preparation for possible storm later in the year. For many people who live near the coast, will their friends and families want them to join in a closed environment for up to 24 hours?
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I heard the last Euro model had it strengthen and go east coast?

 
Native Floridian, have been thru Andrew in Miami, several others more recently that have skirted or brushed with the Florida Coast, Mathew sat 50 miles out from Jupiter a couple years back before skirting up the Coast and there is a pattern to many of these storms. 

The ones I fear the most are usually the ones that somehow form in the Gulf or the Lower Caribbean and come up from the South and just cut thru the State of Florida...the one out there right now as an example is likely just a Tropical Storm which can still devastate an area for a short period of time, but most of the Atlantic Storms have a lot of ample time to be prepared. 

I am very concerned that a Cat 3-4-5 Storm with days to prepare and news scaring everyone 24-7 leading up to it that supplies which usually are low, but with CV19 already keeping inventory low on many items, it could get very ugly for South Florida and all of Florida if a big storm were to actually plow through the State. We took a big hit from the one a couple years back that hit the Keys and then came on shore around Naples I believe, it was a Cat 5 for a while and then weakened a bit. 

I just went outside to run 3 miles and it was 88 with a breeze, that's not terrible for this time of year in Florida, makes me think we are not going to sustain a really big hit and here is why I say that...when it is so HOT and HUMID here but we can't get rain to cool things off and that is a reflection of very hot water temperatures, right now I can't say that we are truly suffering. We just had a huge dose of rain over Florida over the last week or two, some humongous storms, in fact I had our power knocked out on Friday last weekend with a crack of lightning about 10:00pm and knocked out power to 250 residents, darndest thing the building across from ours was still up and going. 

Doesn't feel like the right time for a big storm from a weather predictor however things can change and it's only July, let's talk in a couple weeks. That storm out there might be a bigger problem for the Gulf Coast once it shifts past Florida, the tracking model has already moved further West since yesterday. 

Cheers!

 
11am NHC guidance indicates that details of the track and intensity forecast remain uncertain due to Isaias's interaction with Hispaniola (mountainous area).    TS or Hurricane watches could be issued for portions of South Florida later today.

 
JaxBill said:
@JackSillin: Lots of complex interactions still to sort out regarding the future of #Isaias but the range of possible outcomes has narrowed significantly. 

This afternoon's blog post digs deep into the question marks that still remain: https://blog.weather.us/tropical-storm-isaias-likely-to-threaten-the-east-coast-as-a-hurricane-this-weekend/

#TSIsaias #FLwx #NCwx #MAwx https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1288962587007365120/photo/1
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Yeah, that track suxors beach balls from where I'm sitting in Rhody.  2020...

 
It’s starting to get some dry air penetration  so hopefully it weakens more. 
 

ETA: The Weather Channel calling this thing CovidCane 2020 is absurd.  :crazy:

 
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Looking like a warm up for the rest of the season. First "watch" of the season went up yesterday, and first "warning" went up this morning.

I'll spend some time this afternoon putting away items from the yard and lashing down the furniture on the deck.  Outside of that, not a lot of storm prepping going on.  Although, I did see a notice on FB that our city was making sandbags available.  I'm sure newbies to the area will be on a heightened alert, but no "gotta get the milk and bread" mentality from the locals.

 
Just a bump that this storm is looking slightly more organized. Still a decent chance this regains Hurricane status. It won't be a monster but low grade Cat1 can still do some tree damage.

 
So according to the tracker, Hurricane Isaias officially made landfall 2 streets away from my parents’ beach house. No official word yet, but they think everything is ok.

 
Looks quiet this week, thankfully.   However...2020 forecast - extremely active - 24 named storms.    Stay prepared.

The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is racking up storms at breakneck speed. To date, the season is about two weeks ahead of record pace and it's only one third of the way through. On Wednesday, the news became more concerning as the research team at Colorado State University (CSU) — the standard bearer for seasonal forecasts — released the most dire forecast in their 37-year history.

Labeling the 2020 hurricane season "extremely active," the team is now predicting 24 named storms, including 12 total hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes — each figure about double that of a normal season. If the forecast proves accurate, 2020 would be the second most active Atlantic hurricane season, behind only the record-shattering 2005 season which brought Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma

 
Mjolnirs said:
The ones that come in low like this worry me.  Since the models generally tend to shift right as time progresses, when they start this low, that right shift usually leads to an east coast hit.
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Yup.   Models have been odd this season.  Euro model is still showing nothing.   

 
culdeus said:
Levi got into this a little bit, the reasons are (obviously) complex.  With the demise of Cat6 I pretty much just watch his videos to get a sense of what will ultimately happen.   
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What happened to Cat6?  I noticed there are no posts since June.

 
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