So here it seems to me are the key facts that should, hopefully, give Biden a win in Florida:
1. In 2016, Trump beat Hillary in Florida by 1%.
2. Senior citizens made up 21% of the vote.
3. Senior citizens favored Trump over Hillary by 17 points.
4. Senior citizens favor Trump over Biden by 9 points.
That 8 point difference is everything; it’s the reason polls have Biden consistently ahead by 3-4 points in Florida. Trump supporters have acknowledged this but they’re arguing that it will be countered by increased support from Latino men in the big cities, cutting into Trump’s support.
We’ll see. My prediction is Texas is a mirage, Georgia is a mirage, North Carolina too close to call, but Florida and Arizona are victories for Biden and it will be an early night.