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Official 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Thread (1 Viewer)

song said:
eoMMan said:
culdeus said:

"This morning's 12z SHIPS forecast is literal weenie fuel for #98L. It's certainly not every day you see it explicitly forecast a category 4 hurricane for an invest (), let alone show a maximum potential intensity this high"

For the record the max intensity it forecasts here is 173. So yeah.
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Would Hurricane Hermine be pronounced “Her-mine” or “Her-mean”?
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don't know. i've been saying Her-miney in my head, but 2nd guess is Hair-mean.
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I heard a weather person today say Her-mean.
 
Based on Levi's latest video, we will need to wait until it gets just south of Jamaica to understand where 98L may be heading (can't call it Hermine quite yet). The Euro is projecting an easterly route that hits Florida, the GFS is projecting a more westerly route that heads into the middle of the Gulf. Should be interesting to see which model wins out.
 
culdeus said:
Senor Schmutzig said:
Based on Levi's latest video, we will need to wait until it gets just south of Jamaica to understand where 98L may be heading (can't call it Hermine quite yet). The Euro is projecting an easterly route that hits Florida, the GFS is projecting a more westerly route that heads into the middle of the Gulf. Should be interesting to see which model wins out.
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GFS looking more florida now
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Too many "ifs" right now to assume any tracking is accurate.

Regardless, I did send my wife to the store for batteries, non-perishable food items and water to re-stock our hurricane kit.
 
It's probably not all that shocking that Fiona isn't getting much media attention, but to have a Major hurricane above the 35th is a big deal and this will get above the 40th as a major. Fiona will set all sorts of records. None good.
 
culdeus said:
Senor Schmutzig said:
South Florida checking in here. This hurricane season has been very mild to say the least. Waiting out the last few weeks of the season to see if we have any late development.
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Well this is awkward. I am scheduled to fly into Ft. Myers next :checksnotes: Wednesday afternoon and have paid for an AirBnB :checksnotes: on a canal in Cape Coral. I'm from Minnesota so while I'm fascinated by hurricanes, haven't exactly had to worry about being directly impacted by one. This seems ungood.
 
culdeus said:
It's probably not all that shocking that Fiona isn't getting much media attention, but to have a Major hurricane above the 35th is a big deal and this will get above the 40th as a major. Fiona will set all sorts of records. None good.
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My inlaws are on the nortwestern coast of Nova Scotia. Looks like this will go right over their house. And they currently have Covid. Should make for a scary weekend.
 
Well this sucks if what they have been showing as a forecast holds up definitely not good for me. Everytime one hits between Tampa and Ft. Myers it seems to make a beeline straight for Eustis. Crap I hate the no power thing. Hopefully it won't take 10 days this time.
 
rustycolts said:
Well this sucks if what they have been showing as a forecast holds up definitely not good for me. Everytime one hits between Tampa and Ft. Myers it seems to make a beeline straight for Eustis. Crap I hate the no power thing. Hopefully it won't take 10 days this time.
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Still think there is a lot of uncertainty on where it hits. NHC just shows a consensus but there's a lot of opportunity for wobble within that cone.
 
I’m keeping an eye on what will likely be Ian, and my in-laws live in Lakeland, so I bet they’re watching as well.
 
I’m heading back to Tampa Tuesday morning. Thought about heading back Monday instead, but seats on flights are scarce. Looks like I’ve got some extra errands to do that day. Really wasn’t hoping to test out the 175-185 mph impact-resistant windows, but here we are. Hoping the best for all the Florida (and beyond) FBGs. Wish this thing would just crap out over Hispaniola (I know it’s unrealistic) or makes a right turn back into the Atlantic.
 
Osaurus said:
I’m heading back to Tampa Tuesday morning. Thought about heading back Monday instead, but seats on flights are scarce. Looks like I’ve got some extra errands to do that day. Really wasn’t hoping to test out the 175-185 mph impact-resistant windows, but here we are. Hoping the best for all the Florida (and beyond) FBGs. Wish this thing would just crap out over Hispaniola (I know it’s unrealistic) or makes a right turn back into the Atlantic.
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Yea that's what I'm hoping for the ol right turn.
 
Nick Vermeil said:
culdeus said:
It's probably not all that shocking that Fiona isn't getting much media attention, but to have a Major hurricane above the 35th is a big deal and this will get above the 40th as a major. Fiona will set all sorts of records. None good.
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My inlaws are on the nortwestern coast of Nova Scotia. Looks like this will go right over their house. And they currently have Covid. Should make for a scary weekend.
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They eye is passing to the west of them now. So far so good but the waves have been pushing away from shore. Now the waves come back. Hope their cottage survives the surge.
 
soothsayer said:
culdeus said:
Senor Schmutzig said:
South Florida checking in here. This hurricane season has been very mild to say the least. Waiting out the last few weeks of the season to see if we have any late development.
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Well this is awkward. I am scheduled to fly into Ft. Myers next :checksnotes: Wednesday afternoon and have paid for an AirBnB :checksnotes: on a canal in Cape Coral. I'm from Minnesota so while I'm fascinated by hurricanes, haven't exactly had to worry about being directly impacted by one. This seems ungood.
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I work in Naples and we had some consultants scheduled to fly in for meetings on Tuesday/Wednesday….they just canceled the trip.
Flying into RSW on Wednesday afternoon seems no bueno at this point. I’ll see if I can punch Ian in the face this weekend and move him away.
 
Cut our trip to Indianapolis short. On our way back home now. Wanted to hit Nashville on the way back home. Party on Broadway hit the honky tonks. That's out now too. Got to go and resupply my hurricane stash.
 
Slight westward shift in the track at 11, but it’s still way too early to tell, and these storms wobble in direction, at any rate, I’m keeping an eye(pun intended) on the storm
 
Senor Schmutzig said:
As of right now, Miami is out of the cone but we will still have to wait until tomorrow to see when it begins to turn. That's the key.
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Yes, looking much better for Miami, worse for Tampa to Cedar Key.

>>Good news for the #Miami area regarding #Ian: Tropical storm probabilities have dropped to 28% and the hurricane probability is down to 2%. If tropical storm conditions do occur, they'd begin Tuesday evening. The forecast can change, so pay very close attention & do basic prep!<<

 
Another westward shift in Ian’s cone, which is better for me, but I seem to remember Fiona shifting eastward as compared to its predicted track, and there’s still lots of time and water between it and us
 
Heading back Tuesday morning to Tampa. I don’t have much prep work to do and we have a pantry full of food. Hoping this thing just keeps out in the Gulf and keeps us on way the east/southeast side of this as it passes.
 
culdeus said:
This is looking like an epic rain maker more than any other risk.
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Which would be a problem here locally. Weve had a TON of rain the last few weeks. Last week, in about an hour's time it rained hard enogh to fill our 96 gallon trash can almost to the top. Our fold course looked like a river for two days. Ground here is completely saturated.
 
Yeah it looks like this thing faceplants straight into some cold air and weakens it. Which would be good but it basically pins the storm to ping pong and stay put. A few models have an eye popping 24" of rain on Wednesday in CFL.
 
Trying right now to get my flight to Tampa from Philly booked tomorrow rather than on Tuesday. I saw plenty of seats on American flights so hoping this is all good and gives me some more prep time at home.
 
Grahamburn said:
Osaurus said:
All Hillsborough County shelters are open as of 8 am. Wow
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Already closed schools. The overreaction seems to get worse every year.

Also, can someone explain why people buy up bottled water like they’re going to be stuck in a desert apocalypse?
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Great question. We have a lot of supplies at home. Just waiting for flight and then I’ll take care of the house. Should be interesting to see what my newly transplanted Illinois neighbors are up to. I also wonder how many front doors with 4 sandbags around them I’ll see in my neighborhood. :lol:
 
The Commish said:
PSA from The Commish and his family....if paths hold true and this thing stays out in the gulf west of the state, we likely won't get smacked too bad from this storm. If any of my fellow Floridians want/need to seek shelter in Central Florida, hit us up :thumbup:
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I second that to any Tampa folks. We have room too. I'm right in the middle of the state about 1hr and half away. Message me and I'll give directions.
 
Osaurus said:
Grahamburn said:
Osaurus said:
All Hillsborough County shelters are open as of 8 am. Wow
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Already closed schools. The overreaction seems to get worse every year.

Also, can someone explain why people buy up bottled water like they’re going to be stuck in a desert apocalypse?
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Great question. We have a lot of supplies at home. Just waiting for flight and then I’ll take care of the house. Should be interesting to see what my newly transplanted Illinois neighbors are up to. I also wonder how many front doors with 4 sandbags around them I’ll see in my neighborhood. :lol:
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I'll be honest....I don't get the sandbag thing. Here, you are limited to 5 or 10 depending on location. I can't, for the life of me, figure out what that's going to help.
 
Osaurus said:
Grahamburn said:
Osaurus said:
All Hillsborough County shelters are open as of 8 am. Wow
Click to expand...
Already closed schools. The overreaction seems to get worse every year.

Also, can someone explain why people buy up bottled water like they’re going to be stuck in a desert apocalypse?
Click to expand...
Great question. We have a lot of supplies at home. Just waiting for flight and then I’ll take care of the house. Should be interesting to see what my newly transplanted Illinois neighbors are up to. I also wonder how many front doors with 4 sandbags around them I’ll see in my neighborhood. :lol:
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Honestly didn't even know this thing was around until Friday at the Sam's club as people bought up all the water in the entire place. We have a lot more transplants than we used to. I'm sure they're all terrified.

Most of the daily storms we get at 4:00 in the afternoon are worse than these hurricanes. But, give it a name and put it on tv and everyone loses their minds.
 
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