Official 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Thread (1 Viewer)

[Grahamburn]

It does feel like the local officials sat on their hands thru this one. With the overwhelming amount of information available you can see a situation where the "I do my own research" types get in charge and just look for something that validates them sitting on their ***. With this storm there was a lot of that, leading many on social and occasionally here to say this whole thing was an "overreaction" or "not like a nuclear bomb" and such things. For storms like Irma people were getting moving 5 days out, bullhorns from cops were going into areas telling people to move. Virtually none of that happened for Ian until Tuesday in Fort Myers by all accounts.

I said those things. But, clarified my statements later. I do think it’s an overreaction if you live inland and buy 10 cases of water or every item off the grocery store shelves like I was witnessing when I said that.

If you’re within a couple miles of the ocean, yeah, it’s a big deal if one of these things has you in its sights.

The damage is clearly devastating.

 

[eoMMan]

The projected path was somewhat parallel to the coast - a small change in the projections could lead to a big change in landfall. The path shifted west away from Miami, then east toward Miami in the last 36 hours. Concrete newer structures with 2+ stories were relatively safe, as far as fatalities. Those who stayed in 1-story homes near the coast were risking their lives.

Per Brian McNoldy of the UM Marine School:

>>For the sake of completeness, here is EVERY cone from Advisory 1 at 5am Friday morning to Advisory 24 at 11am Wednesday morning. #Ian's landfall point is the red dot. It was ALWAYS in the likely (67%) area for landfall. [1/2]

I highlighted in yellow the narrow portion of Florida's west coast that was inside every single one of the 24 cones shown on here. If you know for 5 days that there's a 67% chance that something very bad is going to happen to you, wouldn't you take that seriously?? [2/2]<<

See below. Many areas in south Florida were projected to be relatively “okay” with this storm hitting near Tampa. It was late that it hooked right.

Hurricane Ian – UF Update 4 – 9/26/2022 – UF Emergency Weather Updates

updates.emergency.ufl.edu

Monday Forecast & Hurricane Ian Update

It's a hot and summery day for NWFL today, but changes come tonight and tomorrow. Also, here's the latest on Hurricane Ian as of Monday morning.

www.wjhg.com

That dude’s twitter post is silly. With his logic, pretty much every person in Florida should have evacuated out of state.

 

[Grahamburn]

It shifted east Tuesday night.

 

[SoBeDad]

It shifted east Tuesday night.

Yes, and the cone doesn't make clear that the south side of the storm was much more dangerous than the north side. I think the forecasters still warned about bad storm surge in low lying areas near Ft. Myers. As I stated earlier, a small deviation in the projection had a big impact on the landfall.

 

[Wingnut]

I-75 has reopened per FDOT.

https://twitter.com/MyFDOT/status/1576303408411279365?t=TzPq__fDqyAnQ5UTijbI3Q&s=19

 

[heckmanm]

Stepson was notified he has until Friday to vacate his apartment (it flooded about 5” deep). Guessing they are invoking the force majeure clause of the lease. He said they just called his roommate and basically said GTFO, not taking questions. No email or written notice.

My wife is scrambling to figure something out with him. Might end up moving him back home with us but even that’s hard to organize on such short notice.

 

[SoBeDad]

Yesterday morning, at South Pointe Park boardwalk on the southern tip of Miami Beach, 6 people were swept into Government Cut by large waves attributed to swells caused by Ian and king tides made them higher.

eta: They were treated for minor injuries and released from a hospital.

WATCH: Massive wave sweeps people off South Beach boardwalk, 6 hurt

 

[culdeus]

Up to 77 dead reported by CNN. I didn't think post Katrina even 10 would be possible. I think Rita? Is the post Katrina max at something like 7.

 

[E Street Brat]

It shifted east Tuesday night.

Yes, and the cone doesn't make clear that the south side of the storm was much more dangerous than the north side. I think the forecasters still warned about bad storm surge in low lying areas near Ft. Myers. As I stated earlier, a small deviation in the projection had a big impact on the landfall.

This thing jogged to the east right of the coast of Cuba.

When it didn't correct back to the north after the next 6 hour update, I felt from history the sw FL was in major danger.

 

[jhib]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mahoneysthename/status/1576014018191712257?s=42&t=hWyCjyZx-6CL8r5R7gmkFw

Here’s the article for their lackadaisical approach

One day before Hurricane Ian made landfall in SW Florida, a county commission there held a meeting. They prayed for Tampa Bay.

Sounds like the prayers were answered, but file this in the "be careful what you wish for" category.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

NBC saying at least 77 dead from Ian

 

[eoMMan]

Got an email late yesterday saying our power is back on now but still on boil water notice. Definitely quicker this time compared to Irma. I think it’s because we’re closer to businesses/hotels now whereas we had a single family home before.

 

[culdeus]

Cmc develops this lemon and sends it to the Yucatan. IR already has the look. This would be I suppose Julia

 

[culdeus]

91L is invested. And there's another behind it that should get on the graphic tomorrow.

Have probably till this weekend to watch this but everything is there to turn 91L Gulf side, and the one behind it as well.

 

[culdeus]

Some discussion on how the forecast graphics broke down some of the evacuation order timing and perhaps led to deaths

How Hurricane Ian's shifting forecast caught so many off guard

Computer models disagreed, but another big problem was the way the storm risk was communicated.

www.axios.com

 

[zoobird]

Up to 77 dead reported by CNN. I didn't think post Katrina even 10 would be possible. I think Rita? Is the post Katrina max at something like 7.

Not sure what gave you that idea. Not sure if other hurricanes had more, but Sandy killed 38 just in NJ and 43 in NY.

 

[culdeus]

Up to 77 dead reported by CNN. I didn't think post Katrina even 10 would be possible. I think Rita? Is the post Katrina max at something like 7.

Not sure what gave you that idea. Not sure if other hurricanes had more, but Sandy killed 38 just in NJ and 43 in NY.

Alot of what is dead isn't direct cause. It's after the landfall. Stuff like car wrecks or degraded care. Direct cause deaths should be single digit.

 

[zoobird]

Up to 77 dead reported by CNN. I didn't think post Katrina even 10 would be possible. I think Rita? Is the post Katrina max at something like 7.

Not sure what gave you that idea. Not sure if other hurricanes had more, but Sandy killed 38 just in NJ and 43 in NY.

Alot of what is dead isn't direct cause. It's after the landfall. Stuff like car wrecks or degraded care. Direct cause deaths should be single digit.

Not sure of the exact breakdown, but storm surge leads directly to deaths. People stay in their homes and end up drowning. That's definitely why the bulk of the NY deaths in Sandy were in the same low-lying neighborhood in Staten Island.

 

[beer 30]

Hey all, looking for some insight. To all the folks on the ground, what's going on? I ask because I work for a company that is typically directly involved in the aftermath with cleanup, equipment, etc. So far we have heard crickets from FL. Have the cleanup efforts begun or are they still just trying to get into areas? We do this for every storm the nation has had for probably a decade or more and this one is hitting different. By now we'd be slammed with calls for equipment and so far, nada.

 

[Capella]

Hey all, looking for some insight. To all the folks on the ground, what's going on? I ask because I work for a company that is typically directly involved in the aftermath with cleanup, equipment, etc. So far we have heard crickets from FL. Have the cleanup efforts begun or are they still just trying to get into areas? We do this for every storm the nation has had for probably a decade or more and this one is hitting different. By now we'd be slammed with calls for equipment and so far, nada.

Read this morning that they are still looking for and finding bodies.

 

[belljr]

I am not equating here to being in the center of a hurricane but this thing has been raining here for 4 straight days. Crazy

 

[Ron Swanson]

Hey all, looking for some insight. To all the folks on the ground, what's going on? I ask because I work for a company that is typically directly involved in the aftermath with cleanup, equipment, etc. So far we have heard crickets from FL. Have the cleanup efforts begun or are they still just trying to get into areas? We do this for every storm the nation has had for probably a decade or more and this one is hitting different. By now we'd be slammed with calls for equipment and so far, nada.

There isn't much damage on the east coast that requires equipment other than pumps. Very little wind damage and not much debris. Most of the damage is flooding. I can't speak to the west coast.

 

[beer 30]

Read this morning that they are still looking for and finding bodies.

Was afraid of that. I suspect this will be going on for quite a while and there will be a lot of demo afterward. Thanks for the update.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Got an email from Lee County this morning saying they are postponing plan review and inspections indefinitely due to prioritizing the helping of residents and businesses with their permits and inspections for their homes/businesses. Understandable. The last sentence of the email is "do not call for the status [of your project]" We were in the process of permitting ~200 apartments in Ft Myers.

 

[culdeus]

Up to 77 dead reported by CNN. I didn't think post Katrina even 10 would be possible. I think Rita? Is the post Katrina max at something like 7.

Not sure what gave you that idea. Not sure if other hurricanes had more, but Sandy killed 38 just in NJ and 43 in NY.

Alot of what is dead isn't direct cause. It's after the landfall. Stuff like car wrecks or degraded care. Direct cause deaths should be single digit.

Not sure of the exact breakdown, but storm surge leads directly to deaths. People stay in their homes and end up drowning. That's definitely why the bulk of the NY deaths in Sandy were in the same low-lying neighborhood in Staten Island.

Yeah somehow overlooked the more than 100 deaths there either mis reading something about gulf storms or just being a moron

 

[ActionJackson68]

I'm not in Florida, but weren't there a wide range of warnings and pleas to evacuate for many days before the hurricane hit? Some people will just always stay it seems. I don't blame the Florida government for that.

 

[eoMMan]

I'm not in Florida, but weren't there a wide range of warnings and pleas to evacuate for many days before the hurricane hit? Some people will just always stay it seems. I don't blame the Florida government for that.

Formal/mandatory evacuations for different zones in Lee County started Tuesday morning. They started with zones A and B and then added partial zone C.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

Listening to non-Floridians talk about hurricane preparedness must be what it's like for Californians to hear people offer uninformed advice about forest fires. "Can't you just turn the lawn sprinklers on?"

 

[Capella]

Listening to non-Floridians talk about hurricane preparedness must be what it's like for Californians to hear people offer uninformed advice about forest fires. "Can't you just turn the lawn sprinklers on?"

Yea it’s extremely annoying. A lot of people physically can’t get up and leave and a lot of people can’t afford to evacuate.

 

[culdeus]

Listening to non-Floridians talk about hurricane preparedness must be what it's like for Californians to hear people offer uninformed advice about forest fires. "Can't you just turn the lawn sprinklers on?"

Yea it’s extremely annoying. A lot of people physically can’t get up and leave and a lot of people can’t afford to evacuate.

What's the least controversial solution to this?

 

[Capella]

Listening to non-Floridians talk about hurricane preparedness must be what it's like for Californians to hear people offer uninformed advice about forest fires. "Can't you just turn the lawn sprinklers on?"

Yea it’s extremely annoying. A lot of people physically can’t get up and leave and a lot of people can’t afford to evacuate.

What's the least controversial solution to this?

I don’t know. Anything provided by the government would of course be controversial.

I’m sure there were some people who could leave and boldly said F it I’m staying but I would imagine that is not the majority of those found dead. I would figure most of them were people who can’t move around easily and probably didn’t have the ability to go. Of course in this situation a same day evac order made it almost impossible anyhow.

 

[The Commish]

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1577324136220839937?t=vTioWiCmJBEyWZkelZPkkg&s=19

 

[belljr]

Glad I clicked that on my work computer...... I dont have a twitter account

 

[Hawks64]

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1577324136220839937?t=vTioWiCmJBEyWZkelZPkkg&s=19

Odd thread to post that link.

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1577324136220839937?t=vTioWiCmJBEyWZkelZPkkg&s=19

I think we need to invoke the FFA concussion protocol.

 

[heckmanm]

I think we're supposed to attack the next hurricane with Howitzers or HIMARS

 

[Mjolnirs]

Julia

 

[Mjolnirs]

Karl

 

[UOFI_316]

I think we're supposed to attack the next hurricane with Howitzers or HIMARS

Any chance we could just get some Ukrainian farmers to pull the hurricane away with their tractors?

 

[rustycolts]

This made my day It looks like my favorite get away survived the storm.

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[eoMMan]

I was thinking, if anyone wanted to “disappear” and be assumed dead, a devastating hurricane would be a great opportunity to do it.

It’s definitely a jerk move though (not just for your friends/family, but also the rescue personnel looking for you), that’s for sure.

 

[culdeus]

I was thinking, if anyone wanted to “disappear” and be assumed dead, a devastating hurricane would be a great opportunity to do it.

It’s definitely a jerk move though (not just for your friends/family, but also the rescue personnel looking for you), that’s for sure.

How would you set this up the best, make sure everyone knows "I have my own spaghetti models, and I'm confident in riding this out" then be seen on popular internet webcams, maybe make a sign that says NothingBurger2022. Then, make for the Appalachian trail.

 

[The Big Donkey]

I, for one, hopes it stays quiet going forward this season. give eoMMan another year to plan his disappearance.

 

[Mjolnirs]

Lisa
Martin

 

[Senor Schmutzig]

Looks like she's not over yet.

5-day forecast @ 90%

I've seen a variety of forecasts, most of which have it going to the SE Florida coast and then riding up the east coast. Have also seen some that cross over Florida to the Fort Myers/Tampa Area, go out to see for a bit and then curve back into Florida.

Keeping an eye on this one. Highest CURRENT forecast has it as a Cat 1 when reaching the SE coast of Florida but we are still 3-4 days out.

 

[Mjolnirs]

Nicole

 

[Osaurus]

Another fun few days

 

[Sand]

Nicole

My wife's name is Nicole. This may be a bad one...

 

[The Commish]

Another fun few days

And we still have many under water in our area

 

[Senor Schmutzig]

Nicole

Latest update from Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits - Monday morning