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*** Official 2022 PGA Tour Thread - Memorial Tournament, LIV list leaked- It's all Paulina's Fault **** (1 Viewer)

gump said:
facook said:
gump said:
When do we transition to Masters picks discussion?
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One of the Cams.
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For me it’s time to fade LIV guys now that we’re further in. Cam Smith at the head of that list…Koepka too after his win today.
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FTR, I have $ on Young Davis but not on Smith. I just like the narrative of the heel tour holding the Masters belt.

Also have Homa and some multi-sport parlays involving Joker US Open, Iga French, and Rahm/Scheffler.
 
gump said:
When do we transition to Masters picks discussion?
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Now. I need a top 10 pick. I deposited a grand with an MGM app promo. So might as well take a swing at some kind of price. But one golfer to win it all is just such a reach and for too much money. I cannot split the money up, btw, has to be all on one player.

So I think going with a top 10 pick is the call. Maybe top 5, we'll see. I'd like to find some sort of price, which might lead me to a LIV golfer. The books say they are not taking the money/bets that the PGA guys are.

Would normally never pick someone that won the week before but if Koepka is playing well and his odds are juicy, I might take the leap. Otherwise it's Morikawa for now. Day is the under the radar pick for many which means he is no longer under any radar, nor undervalued. I also like Viktor, matter of time.

And Im, value there, Imo.

Feed me gump, et al.
 
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BeTheMatch said:
What happened to the other golf thread??? The one where us hacks talk about our own game?
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***Official 2023 Golf Thread, legally drop it closer to the hole ***

Playing in a Stableford scoring tournament this weekend. I've played in it once or twice before, but I'm still trying to decide the best strategy. I believe the play is to be overly aggressive (one year I cashed despite poor play because I made two eagles the final round) but I'm open to input...
forums.footballguys.com forums.footballguys.com
 
gump said:
@Harry Frogfish - like that Im pick…8th and 2nd last two Masters…

We should consider wet, soft conditions…not sure about wind.
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I think wet conditions with slower greens favors guys like Rahm and Rory as well as guys who struggle with the putting like Zalatoris, Connors, Morikawa. Likely going to have all of them in the couple of pools I'm in.
 
SouthJersey said:
gump said:
@Harry Frogfish - like that Im pick…8th and 2nd last two Masters…

We should consider wet, soft conditions…not sure about wind.
Click to expand...

I think wet conditions with slower greens favors guys like Rahm and Rory as well as guys who struggle with the putting like Zalatoris, Connors, Morikawa. Likely going to have all of them in the couple of pools I'm in.
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I agree…that’s usually the teeth…Spieth, Scott, Tom Kim…
 
Just talked to an employee that went to the LiV tournament this past weekend in Winter Garden. Course in terrible shape. Spectators getting stuck on roots trying to drive around to the "parking lot." They're playing music during the round? Sounds basically like going to your local muni to watch the weekend warriors play for drinks after the round except they're good at golf. Doubt this thing sticks too much longer.
 
If you had to pick one of these guys to make the cut, who would you pick? Not win or even be in contention, just make the cut.

44Harris English$6,700
49J.T. Poston$6,700
209Charl Schwartzel$6,700
42Alex Noren$6,700
56Adrian Meronk$6,700
92Kevin Na$6,700
125Francesco Molinari$6,600
54Mackenzie Hughes$6,600
55Adam Svensson$6,600
41Kyoung-Hoon Lee$6,600
32Sepp Straka$6,600
61Scott Stallings$6,500
48Kevin Kisner$6,500
 
Grahamburn said:
Just talked to an employee that went to the LiV tournament this past weekend in Winter Garden. Course in terrible shape. Spectators getting stuck on roots trying to drive around to the "parking lot." They're playing music during the round? Sounds basically like going to your local muni to watch the weekend warriors play for drinks after the round except they're good at golf. Doubt this thing sticks too much longer.
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Heard some radio golf analyst/bettor dude say he'd have shot 80 on that muni. Completely discounts LIV guys at The Masters. I don't think it's going away any time soon, but that isn't quite a ringing endorsement.
 
facook said:
Grahamburn said:
Just talked to an employee that went to the LiV tournament this past weekend in Winter Garden. Course in terrible shape. Spectators getting stuck on roots trying to drive around to the "parking lot." They're playing music during the round? Sounds basically like going to your local muni to watch the weekend warriors play for drinks after the round except they're good at golf. Doubt this thing sticks too much longer.
Click to expand...

Heard some radio golf analyst/bettor dude say he'd have shot 80 on that muni. Completely discounts LIV guys at The Masters. I don't think it's going away any time soon, but that isn't quite a ringing endorsement.
Click to expand...

"Completely discounting LIV guys" seems awfully shortsighted. Also reeks of being a company man, or whatever you want to call it.

Exactly who is this radio guy analyst/bettor and who is he working for and what keeps his gig going and ****? Nah, not buying that kind of analysis, sorry. There are some great golfers -- like it or not (I don't) -- on that tour who could win it. And they offer value, no question, if there's any of them you like.

The very reason to give them a look is because of groupthink like that. The public/PGA fans are going against LIV, which Vegas books are confirming.

Who knows what transpires, and I just read about weather being a factor so even more question marks, but if one is looking for value, you obviously look to the LIV guys. They didn't all of a sudden forget how to play golf. They want the Masters just as bad as before.
 
Harry Frogfish said:
facook said:
Grahamburn said:
Just talked to an employee that went to the LiV tournament this past weekend in Winter Garden. Course in terrible shape. Spectators getting stuck on roots trying to drive around to the "parking lot." They're playing music during the round? Sounds basically like going to your local muni to watch the weekend warriors play for drinks after the round except they're good at golf. Doubt this thing sticks too much longer.
Click to expand...

Heard some radio golf analyst/bettor dude say he'd have shot 80 on that muni. Completely discounts LIV guys at The Masters. I don't think it's going away any time soon, but that isn't quite a ringing endorsement.
Click to expand...

"Completely discounting LIV guys" seems awfully shortsighted. Also reeks of being a company man, or whatever you want to call it.

Exactly who is this radio guy analyst/bettor and who is he working for and what keeps his gig going and ****? Nah, not buying that kind of analysis, sorry. There are some great golfers -- like it or not (I don't) -- on that tour who could win it. And they offer value, no question, if there's any of them you like.

The very reason to give them a look is because of groupthink like that. The public/PGA fans are going against LIV, which Vegas books are confirming.

Who knows what transpires, and I just read about weather being a factor so even more question marks, but if one is looking for value, you obviously look to the LIV guys. They didn't all of a sudden forget how to play golf. They want the Masters just as bad as before.
Click to expand...
The biggest thing to me going into an event like the Masters is their lack of true competition. Where's the pressure on that tour? They get paid whether they play well or not and the events don't matter to anyone. You can lose your nerve pretty quick in a game like golf, and that slight edge makes a big difference. Are you betting on the guys that just battled it out at The Players or the ones rocking out to AC/DC at the Waterbury Open on greens running about 8 on a stimp? The LiV guys may still want it, but are they truly prepared for it? The only thing that can prepare you for pressure golf is playing pressure golf, and they don't do it anymore.
 
gump said:
SouthJersey said:
gump said:
@Harry Frogfish - like that Im pick…8th and 2nd last two Masters…

We should consider wet, soft conditions…not sure about wind.
Click to expand...

I think wet conditions with slower greens favors guys like Rahm and Rory as well as guys who struggle with the putting like Zalatoris, Connors, Morikawa. Likely going to have all of them in the couple of pools I'm in.
Click to expand...
I agree…that’s usually the teeth…Spieth, Scott, Tom Kim…
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Yup. You want the guys who throw darts with the irons when the greens are receptive.
 
Grahamburn said:
Harry Frogfish said:
facook said:
Grahamburn said:
Just talked to an employee that went to the LiV tournament this past weekend in Winter Garden. Course in terrible shape. Spectators getting stuck on roots trying to drive around to the "parking lot." They're playing music during the round? Sounds basically like going to your local muni to watch the weekend warriors play for drinks after the round except they're good at golf. Doubt this thing sticks too much longer.
Click to expand...

Heard some radio golf analyst/bettor dude say he'd have shot 80 on that muni. Completely discounts LIV guys at The Masters. I don't think it's going away any time soon, but that isn't quite a ringing endorsement.
Click to expand...

"Completely discounting LIV guys" seems awfully shortsighted. Also reeks of being a company man, or whatever you want to call it.

Exactly who is this radio guy analyst/bettor and who is he working for and what keeps his gig going and ****? Nah, not buying that kind of analysis, sorry. There are some great golfers -- like it or not (I don't) -- on that tour who could win it. And they offer value, no question, if there's any of them you like.

The very reason to give them a look is because of groupthink like that. The public/PGA fans are going against LIV, which Vegas books are confirming.

Who knows what transpires, and I just read about weather being a factor so even more question marks, but if one is looking for value, you obviously look to the LIV guys. They didn't all of a sudden forget how to play golf. They want the Masters just as bad as before.
Click to expand...
The biggest thing to me going into an event like the Masters is their lack of true competition. Where's the pressure on that tour? They get paid whether they play well or not and the events don't matter to anyone. You can lose your nerve pretty quick in a game like golf, and that slight edge makes a big difference. Are you betting on the guys that just battled it out at The Players or the ones rocking out to AC/DC at the Waterbury Open on greens running about 8 on a stimp? The LiV guys may still want it, but are they truly prepared for it? The only thing that can prepare you for pressure golf is playing pressure golf, and they don't do it anymore.
Click to expand...
How do you know they don't? Alot of these guys play over on the DP World tour and I'm sure they are playing some high money games around their home country clubs as well. Rory just beat P Reed by a stroke a few months ago over at the Dubai Deseret Classic, I'd say the narrative being pushed by the PGA Tour is ********. :shrug:
 
Harry Frogfish said:
gump said:
When do we transition to Masters picks discussion?
Click to expand...

Now. I need a top 10 pick. I deposited a grand with an MGM app promo. So might as well take a swing at some kind of price. But one golfer to win it all is just such a reach and for too much money. I cannot split the money up, btw, has to be all on one player.

So I think going with a top 10 pick is the call. Maybe top 5, we'll see. I'd like to find some sort of price, which might lead me to a LIV golfer. The books say they are not taking the money/bets that the PGA guys are.

Would normally never pick someone that won the week before but if Koepka is playing well and his odds are juicy, I might take the leap. Otherwise it's Morikawa for now. Day is the under the radar pick for many which means he is no longer under any radar, nor undervalued. I also like Viktor, matter of time.

And Im, value there, Imo.

Feed me gump, et al.
Click to expand...
Speaking of guys that just won, CC has a great masters trend line and obviously is in form.
 
CGRdrJoe said:
Grahamburn said:
Harry Frogfish said:
facook said:
Grahamburn said:
Just talked to an employee that went to the LiV tournament this past weekend in Winter Garden. Course in terrible shape. Spectators getting stuck on roots trying to drive around to the "parking lot." They're playing music during the round? Sounds basically like going to your local muni to watch the weekend warriors play for drinks after the round except they're good at golf. Doubt this thing sticks too much longer.
Click to expand...

Heard some radio golf analyst/bettor dude say he'd have shot 80 on that muni. Completely discounts LIV guys at The Masters. I don't think it's going away any time soon, but that isn't quite a ringing endorsement.
Click to expand...

"Completely discounting LIV guys" seems awfully shortsighted. Also reeks of being a company man, or whatever you want to call it.

Exactly who is this radio guy analyst/bettor and who is he working for and what keeps his gig going and ****? Nah, not buying that kind of analysis, sorry. There are some great golfers -- like it or not (I don't) -- on that tour who could win it. And they offer value, no question, if there's any of them you like.

The very reason to give them a look is because of groupthink like that. The public/PGA fans are going against LIV, which Vegas books are confirming.

Who knows what transpires, and I just read about weather being a factor so even more question marks, but if one is looking for value, you obviously look to the LIV guys. They didn't all of a sudden forget how to play golf. They want the Masters just as bad as before.
Click to expand...
The biggest thing to me going into an event like the Masters is their lack of true competition. Where's the pressure on that tour? They get paid whether they play well or not and the events don't matter to anyone. You can lose your nerve pretty quick in a game like golf, and that slight edge makes a big difference. Are you betting on the guys that just battled it out at The Players or the ones rocking out to AC/DC at the Waterbury Open on greens running about 8 on a stimp? The LiV guys may still want it, but are they truly prepared for it? The only thing that can prepare you for pressure golf is playing pressure golf, and they don't do it anymore.
Click to expand...
How do you know they don't? Alot of these guys play over on the DP World tour and I'm sure they are playing some high money games around their home country clubs as well. Rory just beat P Reed by a stroke a few months ago over at the Dubai Deseret Classic, I'd say the narrative being pushed by the PGA Tour is ********. :shrug:
Click to expand...
I guess we'll see in a few days.
 
The Big 3 LIv guys are in top 17 odds…doesn’t seem like the public is groupthink to me? None of those 3 will be in my pools though.
 
Hovland and Xander paired with Tiger for the opening rounds, I'm not sure either will be affected by the Tiger crowd's but it could be a distraction for them.
 
gump said:
The Big 3 LIv guys are in top 17 odds…doesn’t seem like the public is groupthink to me? None of those 3 will be in my pools though.
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I read a Masters article where a prominent sports book manager was simply asked who was taking money. He said the PGA guys were taking a lot more. That doesn't mean he and other books will change their original lines -- like actually raising the lines on LIV golfers that aren't taking money.. Although I'm sure they've dropped the lines on whomever has taken the most money. So you can also look at it this way. You are no longer getting the prices from the popular PGA picks you could've/woud've got a few weeks ago.

And look, you don't have to believe him either, but there's really not much reason to think he's making that up. It makes perfect sense actually, that most of the public "prefers" the original PGA tour over LIV and the Saudi money, etc. In which case, they will be more likely to bet who they like and/or want to win. I mean, I don't think there's any question about that; it totally falls in line with what the book manager claims. If it helps to not call it "groupthink", then so be it, but I'm buying it.

In the end value doesn't mean a thing if you lose so you can toss it out the window if you like. These aren't stocks. But for those playing in contests or pools where they have a certain number to stay under, or just prefer bigger prices, it's worth noting where they might find some value. Or how about a draft type pool, I would definitely take it into account there as well.
 
I took Reed in one of my pool entries. I think he loves being the villain and was fairly inexpensive. I like his odds of making the cut at least.
 
Good point on line moves…but I also think it’s just as likely people are betting on PGA players over LIV for the reason I am…being competitively ready vs not.
 
gump said:
Good point on line moves…but I also think it’s just as likely people are betting on PGA players over LIV for the reason I am…being competitively ready vs not.
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speaking of competitively ready, Tiger seems ready to shock everyone and be ready for sunday. He knows the course better than just about any player, has had one extra year to heal and he’s probably the most ready mental player out there. The putter is the only piece that seems to be lagging behind but if he can drain some 9 footers and stay away from 3 putting he could be decent value for top 10 at plus 500.
 
gump said:
Good point on line moves…but I also think it’s just as likely people are betting on PGA players over LIV for the reason I am…being competitively ready vs not.
Click to expand...

I can acknowledge your points on dealing with the PGA pressure weekly vs the current climate in LIV, however I'm not sold. For one, this is unprecedented, so I'm not ready to buy into the whole different level of pressure thing. But we will find out eventually.

And I'm especially not deterred by that angle with guys that have not only handled, but thrived, under the microscope and pressure already. For instance, I don't think it affects someone like Koepka one bit, the fact he won on a muni course with ACDC playing on the driving range (funny stuff, though) last week. In fact, I think if anything, a guy like that may very well thrive under this new scrutiny or whatever. Dude loves a chip on his shoulder, like Reed (60-1), for example, as WDIK2 brought up. Or DJ. And those names are at much higher prices than they probably should be, or certainly have been in the past.

Now for those that have never won some really big ones, I could buy into that theory more. But until that angle comes to fruition, and with the big names, I'll pass on factoring it in.
 
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As to my earlier point about the "value" of Liv vs PGA at the betting windows, here's MGM's latest (btw, where are the Liv guys?):

Masters – Tournament Winner​

Line Movement (Open, Current)
  • Scottie Scheffler +1200, +700
  • Rory McIlroy +1000, +700
  • Jon Rahm +1200, +900
  • Jordan Spieth +2000, +1800
  • Max Homa +6600, +2500
Highest Ticket %
  • Scottie Scheffler 9.0%
  • Rory McIlroy 7.6%
  • Jordan Spieth 7.0%
Highest Handle %
  • Scottie Scheffler 14.2%
  • Rory McIlroy 11.6%
  • Jordan Spieth 10.4%
Biggest Liabilities
  • Jordan Spieth
  • Scottie Scheffler
  • Tiger Woods
 
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CGRdrJoe said:
gump said:
Good point on line moves…but I also think it’s just as likely people are betting on PGA players over LIV for the reason I am…being competitively ready vs not.
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speaking of competitively ready, Tiger seems ready to shock everyone and be ready for sunday. He knows the course better than just about any player, has had one extra year to heal and he’s probably the most ready mental player out there. The putter is the only piece that seems to be lagging behind but if he can drain some 9 footers and stay away from 3 putting he could be decent value for top 10 at plus 500.
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Slower greens will help…Couples was raving about how Tiger look in their practice round.
 
gump said:
A lot of discussion around how the tee box move at #13 will change the hole. Some are concerned it’ll kill some excitement by making it a 3-shot approach for most. Comparisons to the Tiger-proofing in ‘02. https://www.golfdigest.com/story/ma...oods-rory-mcilroy-fred-couples-phil-mickelson
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I saw them talking about this on Golf Channel this morning. Mickelson said he's not sure if he can get around the corner on his drive, so he'll most likely have lay up. I fully expect him to go for it at least once, though.
 
Watched "The MASTERS LIVE", cringing about Brandy Chamblee's take, and hoping for less of him. Please excuse that arrogant, pompous d-bag from the table, ASAP.

The overanalysis and hype is comical. But I do love the event itself. However, some of this, is not unlike the Superbowl, where the hype and media coverage eventually becomes laughable. And let's just get down to it.


My take, at this point. WEATHER. The difference between these guys at this level, is oh-so slim. And the weather this week is definitely going to play a part.

Unless you're super on top of tee times with the weather and such, I don't know how you handicap this thing.

There's going to be luck involved, as is golf, but moreso than normal. If you have the patience and time to pay close attention, that might be the way to go. Live-betting.

Otherwise, cross your fingers that your guy doesn't run into wind and/or rain. . . . at the wrong time.

Brutal, and even more unpredictable than normal. I would steer clear of the favorites now, why not? Prices and uncertainty abound.
 
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gump said:
CGRdrJoe said:
gump said:
Good point on line moves…but I also think it’s just as likely people are betting on PGA players over LIV for the reason I am…being competitively ready vs not.
Click to expand...
speaking of competitively ready, Tiger seems ready to shock everyone and be ready for sunday. He knows the course better than just about any player, has had one extra year to heal and he’s probably the most ready mental player out there. The putter is the only piece that seems to be lagging behind but if he can drain some 9 footers and stay away from 3 putting he could be decent value for top 10 at plus 500.
Click to expand...
Slower greens will help…Couples was raving about how Tiger look in their practice round.
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The weather and the hills are going to be tough on Tiger this week. 9 holes practice rounds on Monday & Tuesday, none today. I'd never bet against TW but this week is not going to work in his favor.
 
Wind is the most impactful weather element…doesn’t look like much of that this week? Otherwise it’ll play longer and slower in wet, giving longer hitters/lesser putters an advantage.
 
gump said:
Wind is the most impactful weather element…doesn’t look like much of that this week? Otherwise it’ll play longer and slower in wet, giving longer hitters/lesser putters an advantage.
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not sure the current forecast but dont they have to system to suck the water out of the greens if need be.... not saying it wont be soft and slower but they can speed it up easier?
 
Took a long shot on Sam Burns to win. Using DraftKings.
No special knowledge. Just seems to be doing well lately and odds give a good payoff on a small bet.
 
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