Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
You're not wrong though -- we have to find a goal scorer.
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***Official 2022 World Cup Thread*** (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter gianmarco
- Start date
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Just a reminder, this matched if not exceeded anything Mbappe or Messi did yesterday.
USMNT vs. Panama: Christian Pulisic Third Goal - Mar. 27, 2022
USA GOAL vs. Panama, 03/27/2022
www.youtube.com
No I'm not putting Pulisic in their class. By many of our players are closer to the elites than a bunch of chukleheads playing kickball.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
And all that technical ability got Argentina a loss against Saudia Arabia, PKs against a Dutch team that we played pretty decently against outside of a few mental mistakes, and a narrow nail biter win against a very mediocre Australia team. France eeked out a game against an English squad (2.03 vs. 1.33 XG in favor of England) that we arguably outplayed in our matchup with them.
USMNT players can do technically great things, just not with the same kind of consistency as a team like Argentina or France. That's the interesting thing about soccer and why anything can happen on any day. Each game is a low number of opportunities that guys convert at low percentages, and great players simply convert them at really low percentages instead of really really low percentages. Everyone raves when a great player smashes a howitzer into the corner of the net from way out, or hits some crazy amazing volley, but ignores the 23 consecutive times they hit those same shots into the 15th row of the stands preceding that.
That USMNT goal against Iran was a pretty technically great play, and is a play where if we'd seen Brazil do the exact same thing we'd all probably be sitting here saying "that's the kind of play the USMNT could never make".
We're a long ways off from getting anywhere near that top tier with Argentina, France, Brazil where they win 30 straight games and stuff like that. But in a tournament setting where a 4-game win streak is all it takes, sometimes it's a 2nd/3rd tier team that wins it, and those type of teams make runs to the semi's pretty much every year. And that's a tier that, if a lot goes right over the next 3 years, the US could find its way into.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
When has a second or third tier team won the world cup? Italy in 2006?
Look, I'll give you Greece winning Euros a while back but the cream normally rises to the top. That's why only 6 nations have won it in the last 50 years.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
France were ranked 18th before the 1998 World Cup and weren’t really thought of as a top tier soccer power before that tournament. (Obligatory FIFA ranking grain of salt caution)
FIFA World Ranking as of May 1998 | FIFARANKING.net
>This article is men's ranking as of 20 May 1998. FIFA RANKING.net describes latest FIFA ranking and Countries ranking and chart.
en.fifaranking.net
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Missing the original post about it but I think even with 12 groups of 4 that all 3 of USA, Canada and Mexico get Pot 1. There already is precedent where Japan and South Korea both got Pot 1 and in both situations that means hosts get 25% of the Pot 1 spots. And Japan and South Korea were 25th and 30th out of the 32 teams in that World Cup in terms of rank at the beginning of the tournament - two teams that by the measure would have been in Pot 4.
They prefer the hosts at least advance to the knock-out stage and that will hold true for Canada.
-QG
They prefer the hosts at least advance to the knock-out stage and that will hold true for Canada.
-QG
Eephus
Footballguy
France were ranked 18th before the 1998 World Cup and weren’t really thought of as a top tier soccer power before that tournament. (Obligatory FIFA ranking grain of salt caution)
FIFA World Ranking as of May 1998 | FIFARANKING.net
>This article is men's ranking as of 20 May 1998. FIFA RANKING.net describes latest FIFA ranking and Countries ranking and chart.en.fifaranking.net
France was the host nation and didn't get to boost their ranking in qualifiers.
They'd made it to the semi-finals in the previous Euros (losing on penalties) and been competitive in the Tournoi in 1997.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
But they also failed to qualify for the previous two world cups and had a modest overall history pre-1998 (a couple of 3rd place finishes in ‘58 and ‘86 and a Euro win in 1984 but they were also host for that).France were ranked 18th before the 1998 World Cup and weren’t really thought of as a top tier soccer power before that tournament. (Obligatory FIFA ranking grain of salt caution)
FIFA World Ranking as of May 1998 | FIFARANKING.net
>This article is men's ranking as of 20 May 1998. FIFA RANKING.net describes latest FIFA ranking and Countries ranking and chart.en.fifaranking.net
France was the host nation and didn't get to boost their ranking in qualifiers.
They'd made it to the semi-finals in the previous Euros (losing on penalties) and been competitive in the Tournoi in 1997.
Not saying they were bad, but they were definitely considered 2nd tier at best back then.
Eephus
Footballguy
But they also failed to qualify for the previous two world cups and had a modest overall history pre-1998 (a couple of 3rd place finishes in ‘58 and ‘86 and a Euro win in 1984 but they were also host for that).France were ranked 18th before the 1998 World Cup and weren’t really thought of as a top tier soccer power before that tournament. (Obligatory FIFA ranking grain of salt caution)
FIFA World Ranking as of May 1998 | FIFARANKING.net
>This article is men's ranking as of 20 May 1998. FIFA RANKING.net describes latest FIFA ranking and Countries ranking and chart.en.fifaranking.net
France was the host nation and didn't get to boost their ranking in qualifiers.
They'd made it to the semi-finals in the previous Euros (losing on penalties) and been competitive in the Tournoi in 1997.
France was one of the pre-tournament favorites in 1998. They weren't an outsider making a surprise run in the WC like Croatia that year or Bulgaria in USA '94.
Ted Lange as your Bartender
Footballguy
They were also the host, which boosted those odds imo. But fair enough, we’ll go by your definition of what constitutes tiers.But they also failed to qualify for the previous two world cups and had a modest overall history pre-1998 (a couple of 3rd place finishes in ‘58 and ‘86 and a Euro win in 1984 but they were also host for that).France were ranked 18th before the 1998 World Cup and weren’t really thought of as a top tier soccer power before that tournament. (Obligatory FIFA ranking grain of salt caution)
FIFA World Ranking as of May 1998 | FIFARANKING.net
>This article is men's ranking as of 20 May 1998. FIFA RANKING.net describes latest FIFA ranking and Countries ranking and chart.en.fifaranking.net
France was the host nation and didn't get to boost their ranking in qualifiers.
They'd made it to the semi-finals in the previous Euros (losing on penalties) and been competitive in the Tournoi in 1997.
France was one of the pre-tournament favorites in 1998. They weren't an outsider making a surprise run in the WC like Croatia that year or Bulgaria in USA '94.
If we go by pre-tournament odds, then 1982 Italy was the winner with the longest odds at 18-1, 7th favorite in that tournament (available odds go back to 1966). Rank outsiders don’t win the World Cup, basically ever.
Eephus
Footballguy
gianmarco
Footballguy
The Z Machine
Footballguy
100% agreed. Long shots make quarterfinals and sometimes semifinals, but rarely a final, and they never win it all.
Sleestak
Footballguy
In a one-off with our core healthy, sure, we have the pieces to snatch a game against a top side. What the WC winners tend to have that we don't is the ability to play at our best once every 4 days. Some more quality depth sprinkled up and down the roster is necessary (as well as a good striker).
Getting closer... but the quality depth hurdle is going to present a challenge. With that, we will need a coach who can properly utilize that depth so the team can rise to recurring challenges and emergencies. We are too brittle currently.
3C's
Footballguy
Alejandro Petrakovsky on Instagram: "🇦🇷SOMOS CAMPEONES DEL MUNDO ⚽️🏆 @leomessi nos pediste que confiemos y confiamos!!! - WE ARE WORLD CHAMPIONS! Leo Messi you asked us to trust the team, so we trusted. . . . . . . #Obelisco #BuenosAires #Argentina #
1M likes, 9,452 comments - alepetra_ on December 18, 2022: "🇦🇷SOMOS CAMPEONES DEL MUNDO ⚽️🏆 @leomessi nos pediste que confiemos y confiamos!!! - WE ARE WORLD CHAMPIONS! Leo Messi you asked us to trust the team, so we trusted. . . . . . . #Obelisco #BuenosAires #Argentina #Campeon #Qatar2022...
www.instagram.com
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Alejandro Petrakovsky on Instagram: "🇦🇷SOMOS CAMPEONES DEL MUNDO ⚽️🏆 @leomessi nos pediste que confiemos y confiamos!!! - WE ARE WORLD CHAMPIONS! Leo Messi you asked us to trust the team, so we trusted. . . . . . . #Obelisco #BuenosAires #Argentina #
1M likes, 9,452 comments - alepetra_ on December 18, 2022: "🇦🇷SOMOS CAMPEONES DEL MUNDO ⚽️🏆 @leomessi nos pediste que confiemos y confiamos!!! - WE ARE WORLD CHAMPIONS! Leo Messi you asked us to trust the team, so we trusted. . . . . . . #Obelisco #BuenosAires #Argentina #Campeon #Qatar2022...
Dang they even stole the Washington Monument to celebrate
-QG
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Just look at what France or Brazil could bring out if their starting players weren't getting it done. The France subs turned the tide in the Final.
3C's
Footballguy
We're not the only one with a giant phallic symbol it seems.Alejandro Petrakovsky on Instagram: "🇦🇷SOMOS CAMPEONES DEL MUNDO ⚽️🏆 @leomessi nos pediste que confiemos y confiamos!!! - WE ARE WORLD CHAMPIONS! Leo Messi you asked us to trust the team, so we trusted. . . . . . . #Obelisco #BuenosAires #Argentina #
1M likes, 9,452 comments - alepetra_ on December 18, 2022: "🇦🇷SOMOS CAMPEONES DEL MUNDO ⚽️🏆 @leomessi nos pediste que confiemos y confiamos!!! - WE ARE WORLD CHAMPIONS! Leo Messi you asked us to trust the team, so we trusted. . . . . . . #Obelisco #BuenosAires #Argentina #Campeon #Qatar2022...
Dang they even stole the Washington Monument to celebrate
-QG
culdeus
Footballguy
Slightly better than shaq
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Yep. A striker and another half-dozen players in our top-tier core group.
We got incredibly lucky with the timing of injuries and etc at this World Cup -- everyone was healthy. And the one guy with a long-term injury (Miles) made space for what turned out to be our best defender (Ream). We'll almost never have all those guys available at the same time again. (We also got lucky we didn't lose anyone to injury or suspension in our four games -- that's unusual too.)
And I'd settle for a Dempsey or Donovan up front at this point -- doesn't need to be a Haaland. Just someone who can reliably score. We find that and we can beat any team on the planet on our day. We've done it many times before with lesser players.
FWIW, a reasonable argument would be something like, "the US is still a long way from being favored to win more than they lose against the top 10 teams in the world."
Sleestak
Footballguy
Another thing that I always forget about, and that gets hammered into my head each world cup, is just how astute the big boys tend to be. The US is still all about grit and pride, which is great and has yielded some unforgettable moments. But the big boys know how to break a team down analytically in the game prep, and choke off the inferior (or more naive) team's options as the game goes along.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Except for Brazil. They think that they can score at will and other teams will just capitulate to their superior quality. Why have more than 3 guys back on D when we're up a goal with 5 minutes to play?
Sammy3469
Footballguy
The semis and final showed how important strikers are for consistent scoring and crisp, fast one-touch passing with intelligent, subtle movement is to unlocking world class defenses. We're light-years away from really doing either. They're not flailing crosses into the box if they can help it. They're attacking the box with purpose to force the defense to make mistakes (penalties).
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I forgot about the play in the 123rd minute where Mbappe dances thru two Argies only to have Enzo Fernandez get a touch just as he's lining up the shot.
Like @Ramsay Hunt Experience said, so many moments.
Like @Ramsay Hunt Experience said, so many moments.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
For kicks, since 1994 -- all games in the World Cup against "big" teams (at that time):
- USA 2-1 Colombia
- USA 0-1 Brazil
- USA 0-2 Germany
- USA 3-2 Portugal
- USA 0-1 Germany
- USA 1-1 Italy
- USA 1-1 England
- USA 2-2 Portugal
- USA 0-1 Germany
- USA 1-2 Belgium
- USA 0-0 England
- USA 1-3 Netherlands
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The Z Machine
Footballguy
Not great, Bob. Now do Mexico.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
There's only one World Cup game that really matters as far as Mexico goes. But, I hope you're sitting down anyhow. Since 1994:
- Mexico 1-1 Italy
- Mexico 2-2 Netherlands
- Mexico 1-2 Germany
- Mexico 1-1 Italy
- Mexico 1-2 Portugal
- Mexico 1-2 Argentina
- Mexico 2-0 France
- Mexico 1-3 Argentina
- Mexico 0-0 Brazil
- Mexico 1-2 Netherlands
- Mexico 1-0 Germany
- Mexico 0-2 Brazil
- Mexico 0-2 Argentina
If you include the head to head in 2002: USA 3-4-6 (-4) and Mexico 2-4-8 (-9).
Desert_Power
Footballguy
CR7 looking at all the angles on the Bruno goal
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
In individual game the distance has narrowed. I think we mostly accepted the idea that we had about 1/3 chance against Netherlands. Move that forward against Argentina we can be generous and say 1/4. Croatia (which I would think we might consider what we aspire to be) I think 2/5 chance is about as much as we could say and again that is generous. France, like Argentina let's say 1/4 (but the collective experience of a side like that in major competitions makes that plenty generous as well).
So (1/3)*(1/4)*(2/5)*(1/3) = (2/180).
Like 1.11% to run that gauntlet. 8.33% to get as far as Morocco. And that is taking group advancement for granted.
You can basically apply that sort of deal to every team in the 10th-40th range. Morocco popped up this time around. South Korea did at home 20 years ago. But year in year out contenders? Naah. Croatia breaking into the club is impressive (and will be more so if they can keep it going without their generational player) but the Euro sides popping up at various times still have all that compete time against the big boys. Same with South America.
But the big boys always have the depth. They can pick their team a little wrong or have players at not quite the right time and still be true contenders. And we are still some distance from being situated where we require maybe 1 true upset to win it all instead of 3 or 4 with perfect selection, strategy and health. I mean heck we have only just leveled up to the point where a little strategic flexibility is possible.
All that said once in a generation the Premier League gets a Leicester City so we can hope (just don't think too hard about the 1 year vs 4 year frequency of competition)
-QG
So (1/3)*(1/4)*(2/5)*(1/3) = (2/180).
Like 1.11% to run that gauntlet. 8.33% to get as far as Morocco. And that is taking group advancement for granted.
You can basically apply that sort of deal to every team in the 10th-40th range. Morocco popped up this time around. South Korea did at home 20 years ago. But year in year out contenders? Naah. Croatia breaking into the club is impressive (and will be more so if they can keep it going without their generational player) but the Euro sides popping up at various times still have all that compete time against the big boys. Same with South America.
But the big boys always have the depth. They can pick their team a little wrong or have players at not quite the right time and still be true contenders. And we are still some distance from being situated where we require maybe 1 true upset to win it all instead of 3 or 4 with perfect selection, strategy and health. I mean heck we have only just leveled up to the point where a little strategic flexibility is possible.
All that said once in a generation the Premier League gets a Leicester City so we can hope (just don't think too hard about the 1 year vs 4 year frequency of competition)
-QG
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
22.3 million watched the final in the US. That is an excellent number given the start time of 10:00am ET.
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
Look at the highway in Buenos Aires.....
Jayrod
Footballguy
It is partly cloudy and in the low 80's there today.
What a boon for the entire country. Good for them and I'm happy for Messi.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
This is all kinds of amazing.
An Argentine shootout vs Colombia during the COPA and you can hear Emi Martinez just talking non-stop **** to the Colombian player all the way up until he hits the shot. (captioned)
An Argentine shootout vs Colombia during the COPA and you can hear Emi Martinez just talking non-stop **** to the Colombian player all the way up until he hits the shot. (captioned)
Zow
Footballguy
Reminds me of one of those guys you love to have on your team but hate to play against. What an *******, but a very good player.
Scoresman
Footballguy
All I see here is COVID-19.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Happy for Messi. Like still actively happy for him. It would have just been so wrong for him never to win one.
(edit)
(edit)
Sand
Footballguy
Thank you for not putting the Czech Republic beatdown in there.
Sand
Footballguy
In my experience the best goalies are crazy ********. I would have loved Emi on my team.
Reminds me of one of those guys you love to have on your team but hate to play against. What an *******, but a very good player.
Ramsay Hunt Experience
Footballguy
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Morocco's parade in Rabat today - https://twitter.com/i/status/1605334532261138433
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Looking at the these again, the US is 0-0-5 against the remnants of the Holy Roman Empire, and 2-4-1 against everyone else. You're welcome.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Third video down, presumably the, now paraplegic, bridge jumper pumping his fist to the song as they stretcher him away.
Major
Footballguy
Happy for the country as well. I didn't realize how much economic hardship they've experienced recently. For a pretty big country it's amazing to see how much their currency has devalued in a few short years: USD to ARG peso
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
Half-spaces grades for the full World Cup.
My o/u for good performances used to be around 4.0, but he says his updated grading system yields slightly lower scores. So the # of guys coming in at 4+ across four games is not to be sneezed at. At the team level, the scores match what I thought I saw watching the games.
And if you look at the players who didn't perform it's basically who you'd expect, and mostly subs.
Really believe Berhalter got just about the most he could have gotten out of this group and that most of the criticism is edge cases and relatively minor stuff.
My o/u for good performances used to be around 4.0, but he says his updated grading system yields slightly lower scores. So the # of guys coming in at 4+ across four games is not to be sneezed at. At the team level, the scores match what I thought I saw watching the games.
And if you look at the players who didn't perform it's basically who you'd expect, and mostly subs.
Really believe Berhalter got just about the most he could have gotten out of this group and that most of the criticism is edge cases and relatively minor stuff.
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Finally decided to make an account on here after reading along in this thread most of the world cup. Never watched a futbol match in my life until the second group game of Argentina and followed them throughout. Can say I enjoyed watching most of the matches compared to a lot of the sports I grew up in the states watching. Looking even more forward to my trip to Europe in May and intend to catch a PSG game while in Paris to see Messi and Mbappe 
NewlyRetired
Footballguy
MBappe has already returned to training with PSG.
