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*** Official 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread *** Post Helene and Milton (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Mjolnirs
- Start date
The Big Donkey
Footballguy
Senor Schmutzig
Footballguy
In Miami. I cared enough to fill up my gas tanks for my generator. That's about all of the prep I have done for this one. Shouldn't be much more than some rain with some tropical breezes down here. It may impact my return from New York on Saturday, but I'm not expecting much.
culdeus
Footballguy
Ok maybe not. Looking at 1000 year flooding in some areas.
Osaurus
Footballguy
Houston floods like nowhere else I’ve ever been. Stay safe
3C's
Footballguy
Euro seems to finally be getting on board with GFS and has it coming up the East Coast, though it still shows a weaker storm. NHC seems to be staying a bit conservative with storm strength. Not that it matters though, if it slows down and stays along the SE coast it's likely to bring a lot of rain to those areas, which will be the main issue. Euro is more inland which would mean a lot more rain inland of those same SE states. HAFS seems to park it in GA which would be crazy.
I'm sorry but I don't know any of those acronyms. Can you elaborate please?
3C's
Footballguy
NHC bumped up the intensity forecast a bit but also seems to be bending toward the Euro (GFS as well) which has it come back onshore in SC after it's crossed FL/GA.
"However, a faster rate of development is likely once the system gets better organized, and the cyclone is likely to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches to the northern Gulf coast. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain"
"However, a faster rate of development is likely once the system gets better organized, and the cyclone is likely to be near or at hurricane strength when it reaches to the northern Gulf coast. Weakening is forecast after landfall while the system moves over the southeastern United States. Beyond 72 h, the intensity forecast remains quite uncertain"
3C's
Footballguy
Euro is the European model, GFS is the American model. HAFS is NOAA's new model, Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System. HAFS has been really good but seems a bit off (IMO) with this potential storm. https://news.miami.edu/stories/2024...ason-looms-new-forecast-model-in-the-eye.html
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
They're all either forecast models, or forecasting agencies. Showing a range of outcomes.
WDIK2
Footballguy
SE is southeast.
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
GregR
Footballguy
@Joe Bryant Some models tend to be better than others, but generally the National Hurricane Center forecast that tries to incorporate the various models results tends to outperform individual models over the long haul.
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GregR
Footballguy
The tropical depression's speed and adjusted track will keep it over very warm waters so expect some strengthening to tropical storm, possibly to hurricane. Slow movement could mean heavy amounts of rain and flooding for the Florida panhandle/bend area and up into Georgia.
Remember it doesn't take a category 4 or 5 to hit an area hard. Houston had 2.26 million people without power from a storm that only reached cat 1 shortly before landfall. I learned from Beryl not to get complacent.
Remember it doesn't take a category 4 or 5 to hit an area hard. Houston had 2.26 million people without power from a storm that only reached cat 1 shortly before landfall. I learned from Beryl not to get complacent.
WDIK2
Footballguy
My sister and BIL moved from Lincoln, NE to just west of Savannah, GA in May. They are watching things closely. At least their neighborhood is fairly new with underground power and very few big trees. Sits kind of low though.
Osaurus
Footballguy
Bands coming in now here in Riverview. Got a quick walk in with the pooch before the sky opened. Currently watching the clouds move at a brisk pace to the north
MTskibum
Footballguy
Historic flooding possible as TS Debby bears down on southeastern US
Tropical rainfall and training bands: It’s going to be a soggy mess.
arstechnica.com
culdeus
Footballguy
This is a flooding storm. One of the worst features of modern news is putting into people the idea that hurricanes are a wind event exclusively
massraider
Footballguy
From thatHistoric flooding possible as TS Debby bears down on southeastern US
Tropical rainfall and training bands: It’s going to be a soggy mess.
It's bad enough if a storm goes through, but what you really don't want is a storm hanging out on the coast.
3C's
Footballguy
I was telling my daughter yesterday that a foot plus of rain is possible in Savannah.
MTskibum
Footballguy
From thatHistoric flooding possible as TS Debby bears down on southeastern US
Tropical rainfall and training bands: It’s going to be a soggy mess.
It's bad enough if a storm goes through, but what you really don't want is a storm hanging out on the coast.
I was in Houston during harvey and saw it first hand. It is bad news.
belljr
Footballguy
I had 2 flights cancelled over by wpb. Grrr
Mjolnirs
Footballguy
This is true. All hurricanes are different. With the current forecast track, when it gets to Savannah and the South Carolina coast, hopefully the east side winds stay offshore.
Regarding the new neighborhood having few big trees, with a wind event, those big trees help break up straight line winds. Sure you will lose trees, but the wind break is a benefit. I've never been a fan of leveling all the trees for a new neighborhood.
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Debbie Downer of a Sunday.
3C's
Footballguy
A couple of interesting/informational/scary graphics.
A lot of rain even up into the NE. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUPoByjWAAApRXw?format=jpg&name=900x900
Flooding potential continues well into the month. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUPdC05akAAWWyT?format=png&name=900x900
A lot of rain even up into the NE. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUPoByjWAAApRXw?format=jpg&name=900x900
Flooding potential continues well into the month. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GUPdC05akAAWWyT?format=png&name=900x900
Clown Car
Footballguy
We lost power at 7 as well as cell service. We had a tree come down on the pool house and a bunch of limbs in the front yard. My son’s friend came over and cut the tree off the house. There’s just a tiny dent in a shingle. No estimate on power restoration but we got cell service back mid afternoon. Last storm we were out for 3 days.
Gatorade
Footballguy
Calm now on Hilton Head Island. Lots of wind and rain last night, but never lost power. A couple of trees down in the neighborhood, but nothing major. Gators wondering around in unusual places. Hopefully the worst has passed. Not as much rain since storm center stayed over land.
Gatorade
Footballguy
It does not take much to flood in Charleston
Clown Car
Footballguy
That’s the tree that came down on our pool house/where my son lives. I think you see 4 of my sons in the video. It’s 5,6,8,10.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Mine just went out
massraider
Footballguy
The area has seen flooded roadways and rivers and creeks spilling their banks, and rain amounts are still piling up. The rain totals will be even higher later Friday as rain continues to pound parts of the coast this morning.
The latest reading from local rain gauges shows an astounding 22 inches of rain at Moncks Corner, 18.47 inches of rain in Mount Pleasant, and a whopping 15.33 inches in North Charleston between Monday, Aug. 5 and Friday morning, Aug. 9.
The Myrtle Beach area measured between 4 inches and 12 inches (on average) of rainfall, with Murrells Inlet registering 7.78 inches, North Myrtle Beach between 9 inches and 11 inches, and Myrtle Beach itself had 5.09 inches as of Friday morning.
Cowboysfan8
Footballguy
Going in 10 hours without power. A few burghs 15 mins from me are evacuating or trying to. A lot of rescues. Not good
Clown Car
Footballguy
They will get you back up and running soon.Mine just went out
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