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*** Official Baseball Wagering Thread *** (1 Viewer)

Are the Yankees good value tonight?
I know a lot of people like the Yanks tonight but I don't really see it. Their pitcher doesn't have a whole lot of major league experience and now he has the pressure of avoiding a sweep on national televesion on the road.Daisuske has looked pretty sharp, he just hasn't got any run support.

I think the Sox are on their way to a sweep myself and think they can win this pretty easily.

We are taking the Red Sox on the RunLine -1.5 +110.
I am in on this but I got +115 at Betjamaica.
 
One I like today is Detroit-Chicago OVER 8.5 -110. They put 12 on the board yesterday. Tigers can definately get to Garland and Verlander is not going 9 for Detroit. Once into the Detroit bullpen, the floodgates have been opening. Both of these teams are capable of scoring runs so I like the over today.
Adding in the rest of our playsAtlanta (Smoltz) +110

Toronto-Baltimore OVER 9.5 -120

Anaheim Run Line -1.5 +145- Santana much better pitcher at home and Weaver has just been hideous period.
4 for ####### 4. Nice work. :thumbup:
:thumbup: Pretty sure 'they' were also 4-4 on Saturday too....

Go The Red Sox!!!

 
3-2 today including a lost parlay for +1.22 units

Laying off the NYY/Bos game

Updated Record:

Parlays 1-2 +10.5 units

Totals 17-18-3 -2.50 units

Sides 18-13 +7.31 units

Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):

13-6 +12.02 units

Total:+24.33 units

Milwaukee is the only chase play starting tomorrow

GLTA

 
Gambler is playing with fake money?? With the way you cap other sports I'm not sure you will be able to beat baseball consistently. But who knows.

My 3-pack without shopping would be:

KC +116 - how do you not fade Buehrle here?

Toronto +180 or -110 or so on the RL. Gotta fade the Sox off the big Yanks series.

Florida -133 - cheap price for Willis here. Should be up over -150.

 
I agree with MP on that KC game. I think Meche is a good home dog and am gonna need more than a no-no to buy back into Mark Buehrle again. He's one of the game's most hittable pitchers...or was last year.

Not enamored with Willis and actually think Davies +128 is playable.

hmmm...

Vargas and the Brewers at +145 has my attention. Zambrano has been off this year.

Think the Yanks/Drays go over the figure, but laying -120 to get Over 10.5 kinda sucks.

Do like the Under 8 -105 in the Balt/Oak tilt.

no plays yet....just leans.

 
Florida -133 - cheap price for Willis here. Should be up over -150.
No it shouldn't be over 150. Not the way the Braves are playing right now. Atlanta just took 2 of 3 at Shea, they are rolling.Florida may have righted the ship a bit in the past couple of days but don't forget who they were playing. Prior to that they were on a shaky streak.I like Atlanta as a dog today.
 
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JTC - I don't automatically fade pitchers of a no-no. I do try to fade pitchers off outstanding performances though. Cain vs the Rocks last week is an example. Generally it doesn't matter if they're "good" or "bad" pitchers either - I'd prefer to fade the perceived good pitcher in fact.

"It's still KC" - reason #1 why I like the bet. I like crap teams like the Royals - $$ maker.

In regards to Willis - I'm not fan of Davies here I should add. Never have liked him - Braves a good squad, but I think Florida is being undervalued a bit here.

Baseball is all about perception.

 
clipped from ESPN....

The next time Mark Buehrle pitches will likely be Monday at Kansas City. The Royals are No. 27 in the majors in batting, and not much better (only .220) against left-handed pitching. So why am I advising fantasy owners that the window of opportunity to deal Buehrle to another unsuspecting owner is, oh, about four more days? It can't get better than this for Buehrle. It won't get better than this. And, to be blunt, I think it's going to get a lot worse than this. What's the most amazing thing about Buehrle throwing a no-hitter against the Texas Rangers? That he did it against a good offense (it's not, really, since only the White Sox have a lower team batting average)? That he was the first White Sox pitcher to do this since 1991? That he faced the minimum 27 hitters, allowing only a single walk, and then picking Sammy Sosa off? I think the most amazing thing is that only one pitcher in baseball allowed more hits in 2006 than Buehrle, and few allowed a .300 batting average against. Even when Buehrle was at his best, averaging 16 wins over a five-year period ending with 2005, he was baseball's most hittable ace. In fact, since the start of 2001, the only player in baseball to allow more hits than Buehrle was Livan Hernandez. In fairness, he's also the only one to throw more innings. The point clearly is that Buehrle isn't a guy who makes hitters miss, he relies on control, defense and durability, and if you asked 100 people to pick someone to throw a no-hitter, his name probably doesn't come up. (Thanks to David Pinto's terrific www.baseballmusings.com web site for the stats info.) Last season Buehrle was bad. Only Zach Duke allowed more hits. Buehrle's 4.98 ERA wasn't the worst in the league, but those 12 wins weren't worth it, especially since he didn't even manage to reach 100 strikeouts. Chien-Ming Wang, Aaron Cook and Kenny Rogers were the only other pitchers to reach 200 innings without fanning 100 hitters, but Wang and Rogers won 19 and 17 games, respectively, and Cook had a solid 4.23 ERA and serviceable WHIP. Buehrle did not. So it was that we really didn't recommend Buehrle for this season. The White Sox didn't seem too interested in working out a new contract, either. We ranked Buehrle No. 75 among starting pitchers alone, behind Jeff Suppan and Cliff Lee, knowing the former is very average and the latter would miss April while on the DL. Sell high, my friends, sell high. I know Buehrle looked fine in his first start of this season, allowing three runs over seven innings against the A's. Doesn't matter. Here are the other White Sox hurlers to throw no-hitters since, well, since the last time the Phillies won the World Series:-Wilson Alvarez, 1991-Melido Perez, 1990-Joe Cowley, 1986Do me a favor and look up the career stats of these guys. Want more? -The last MLB no-hitter was thrown by Anibal Sanchez late in 2006. He's a decent starting pitcher, but hardly guaranteed a spot with Dice-K in the Hall of Fame. Sanchez did fine in his outing after the no-no (three earned over seven innings), but currently sports a 4.32 ERA and 1.86 WHIP. -Bud Smith threw a no-hitter in 2001. Last pitched in 2002. -Kevin Millwood, the opposing starter last night, tossed a no-hitter in 2003. In his next outing he allowed a home run to Ramon Vazquez, the fourth of seven he would hit in his career. Millwood lost the game. -Jose Jimenez threw one in 1999. He went 5-14 that year with a 5.85 ERA. Maybe you're getting the hint that throwing a no-hitter, while being a great accomplishment, also takes a great deal of luck? Greg Maddux hasn't thrown one. Roger Clemens hasn't done it. Steve Carlton never did it. Here's more from our pals at ESPN Research: -The last pitcher to throw a no-hitter the season after allowing a .300 batting average was Scott Erickson in 1994. -The only pitchers to sport a higher ERA the season before doing this, in the last 20 seasons, were Erickson, Tommy Greene and Eric Milton. In short, I'm not a believer. Fantasy sports are all about value, and what you do with it. If someone wants to give up a king's ransom for Buehrle, I'd make the deal. In fact, I looked at my shallow ESPN leagues today and Buehrle was still available in a few of them! In the Hot List head-to-head league I did pick up a starting pitcher for Wednesday's games, and chose Kyle Davies against the Cubs. He got lit. Buehrle sat there on free agency all night, for everyone to see. Who believed? Buehrle might not get tagged on Monday against the Royals, and for all we know, the 2006 campaign was a fluke for him and he's ready to go back to the value he owned before that. Buehrle was normally a valuable fantasy option, an innings guy who won games. I'd take 16 wins and a 3.50 ERA, wouldn't you? Problem is I don't see that coming. But if someone else in your league does...
 
I don't disagree with that article but to be honest, do you really think Buerhle's fantasy trade value is that high?

I don't think just because he threw a NO NO propels him into ace status and I doubt too many fantasy GMs do either.

I could see fading him tonight if it was worth it but its vs Gil Meche, he's no better than Buerhle anyway.

 
No, i don't and I don't think the author expects many people that play fantasy bases to buy it either. I just thought it was an interesting trip down memory lane of some of the guys in baseball who have tossed no-nos and their follow up work.

FWIW, I agree with you that +114 on Meche isn't enticing enough...which is why he's not on our card.

 
On a sidenote, how's the syndicate doing this year?
+ 41.66% YTDHad a killer weekend and could have had better figures at the end of yesterday had the rogue member of this outfit not gotten drunk and added some worthless efforts and one NBA lean. :confused: There will be no more NBA leans, btw.
 
On a sidenote, how's the syndicate doing this year?
+ 41.66% YTDHad a killer weekend and could have had better figures at the end of yesterday had the rogue member of this outfit not gotten drunk and added some worthless efforts and one NBA lean. :confused: There will be no more NBA leans, btw.
41% on the year? How many units you guys up or down?
Hard to say with any accuracy as our unit size is always 5% of our current bankroll, resetting every day. But I would say we're up about 10 units on the year. We're not talking a lot of money here, so 41% of our starting bankroll, while nice, isn't as impressive as it sounds.
 
On a sidenote, how's the syndicate doing this year?
+ 41.66% YTDHad a killer weekend and could have had better figures at the end of yesterday had the rogue member of this outfit not gotten drunk and added some worthless efforts and one NBA lean. :bag: There will be no more NBA leans, btw.
Almost pm'd you two winners last night (Den and the den/sa under) - :wall:
What is this "pm'd", why not just post them? :confused: Some weird #### around here..........
 
Found this elsewhere:

in starts following a no no:

2001 - Hideo Nomo - WIN - gave up 1 earned run

2001 - A.J. Burnett - WIN - gave up 1 earned run

2001 - Bud Smith - WIN - gave up 0 earned runs

2002 - Derek Lowe - WIN - gave up 3 earned runs

2003 - Kevin Millwood - LOSS (by 1 run) - gave up 3 earned runs

2003 - Roy Oswalt* - WIN - gave up 1 earned run

2004 - Randy Johnson - WIN - gave up 2 earned runs

2006 - Anibal Sanchez - WIN - gave up 3 earned runs

and this as well:

Buehrle is 2 for 2 Under---average total 7.3

Meche is 3 out of 4 Under---average total 7.2

Looks like CWS and the UNder are good to go this evening.

 
Gambler is playing with fake money?? With the way you cap other sports I'm not sure you will be able to beat baseball consistently. But who knows. My 3-pack without shopping would be:KC +116 - how do you not fade Buehrle here?Toronto +180 or -110 or so on the RL. Gotta fade the Sox off the big Yanks series.Florida -133 - cheap price for Willis here. Should be up over -150.
Your prolly right, MP as always. Better to stick with what I know than venture into a new realm. But wth it's play money for a couple more weeks b4 I decide.I'm sure I'm minus after yesterday but didn't tally it up yet.
 
Twins -116

Phillies -122

and agreed on

CWS & Under (nice work AB)

Leaning Cubs and Bmore - A's O/8

 
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Final card:

MIL +140 ( Chase system play)

TOR +170: Boston never seems to score a lot for Wakefield and you have to figure Boston is drained after the weekend tilt with NYY

CWS -140: See above but I am PASSING on the under- I don't trust either one of these knuckleheads to not get lit up like the fourth of July at any given moment

Hoston +110: I like what the Kid Sampson brings to the table

GLTA

 
YTD -34 on all picks @ 100 /unit

ATL +130

HOUS +113

TB +150

CO/NYM U9

MILW +144

CWS/KC U9

MINN -111

DET +133 and U8.5

 
I like Florida (willis) -140/Atlanta(davies)

and u9 (-120) ChiSox(Buerhle)/KC (Meche)

In the Florida game I think the pitching advantage is too much. I know Atlanta is playing well, but Florida is a very good team, especially with Cabrera in the lineup. Divisional game, should be tight, give me the better starter.

I don't buy the fade the guy after the no-no, just because he may be overvalued. Chicago is still a playoff caliber team, KC is still a young team. KC has been playing well though, so I think they'll hope for a solid effort out of their ace and stick around till late.

we shall see

 
5% BR bets that the syndicate is making is just crazy to me. You almost have to stay away from big dogs and play games around the mendoza line to not hit a cold spell. I don't mind football 5% bets, but in baseball you can EASILY go 0-10, 0-15 in the course of a few days. But, you're successful and have guys who know what they're doing, so who am I to question you guys.

 
5% BR bets that the syndicate is making is just crazy to me. You almost have to stay away from big dogs and play games around the mendoza line to not hit a cold spell. I don't mind football 5% bets, but in baseball you can EASILY go 0-10, 0-15 in the course of a few days. But, you're successful and have guys who know what they're doing, so who am I to question you guys.
Marshall, pardon us but we haven't reached that chapter of your book yet.Maybe you can outline your betting strategy in a couple of sentences for us, we will try to soak it in.
 
5% BR bets that the syndicate is making is just crazy to me. You almost have to stay away from big dogs and play games around the mendoza line to not hit a cold spell. I don't mind football 5% bets, but in baseball you can EASILY go 0-10, 0-15 in the course of a few days. But, you're successful and have guys who know what they're doing, so who am I to question you guys.
Marshall, pardon us but we haven't reached that chapter of your book yet.Maybe you can outline your betting strategy in a couple of sentences for us, we will try to soak it in.
JTC, it's quite easy. Bet bad teams. Bet against good ones. Take the 1' runs and/or the ML with dogs. Shop til ya drop. Bet 1% of your BR or less in bases. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Correlated parlays are your friend. I think some of the best plays are big road underdogs and with betting 5% a game you really can't make plays like this with fear of going bust. I just don't get it. I'm unlike anyone here basically, so people automatically assume my ways are "incorrect." If there's anything in sports betting I truly "get" it's baseball.
 
JTC, it's quite easy. Bet bad teams. Bet against good ones.
At least I know where you are coming from with that 0-15 stat.While we have been betting a lot of dogs or small favorites, we don't just single out teams because they are bad. Different strategy I guess. You seem to want to make a big score on your pennies with a crazy dog, we would rather tread water with a mix of dogs and small favorites.If you need me to pen the "about the author" section in your book, just let me know, I will be happy to oblige.
 
I'm unlike anyone here basically, so people automatically assume my ways are "incorrect." If there's anything in sports betting I truly "get" it's baseball.
And listen you self absorbed brat, nobody automatically assumes anything about you but you seem to do a lot of assuming about everyone else.We know you "get" it and I'm sure you do the dance of the faeries when you hit 1 out of 10 with a huge score on a big dog. That's fantastic dude.
 
2-1 up 1.7 units with Mil pending. WINNER

Updated Record:

Parlays 1-2 +10.5 units

Totals 17-18-3 -2.50 units

Sides 20-14 +9.01 units

Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):

14-6 +13.42 units

Total:+27.43 units

 
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I'm unlike anyone here basically, so people automatically assume my ways are "incorrect." If there's anything in sports betting I truly "get" it's baseball.
And listen you self absorbed brat, nobody automatically assumes anything about you but you seem to do a lot of assuming about everyone else.We know you "get" it and I'm sure you do the dance of the faeries when you hit 1 out of 10 with a huge score on a big dog. That's fantastic dude.
:stirspot:
 
5% BR bets that the syndicate is making is just crazy to me. You almost have to stay away from big dogs and play games around the mendoza line to not hit a cold spell. I don't mind football 5% bets, but in baseball you can EASILY go 0-10, 0-15 in the course of a few days. But, you're successful and have guys who know what they're doing, so who am I to question you guys.
5% was my suggestion - mainly because it was just a handful of plays a day and losing the bankroll was not anything close to the end of the world dollarwise. We looked at the goal of the project and 5% was perfect.
 
5% BR bets that the syndicate is making is just crazy to me. You almost have to stay away from big dogs and play games around the mendoza line to not hit a cold spell. I don't mind football 5% bets, but in baseball you can EASILY go 0-10, 0-15 in the course of a few days. But, you're successful and have guys who know what they're doing, so who am I to question you guys.
Marshall, pardon us but we haven't reached that chapter of your book yet.Maybe you can outline your betting strategy in a couple of sentences for us, we will try to soak it in.
JTC, it's quite easy. Bet bad teams. Bet against good ones. Take the 1' runs and/or the ML with dogs. Shop til ya drop. Bet 1% of your BR or less in bases. It's a marathon, not a sprint. Correlated parlays are your friend. I think some of the best plays are big road underdogs and with betting 5% a game you really can't make plays like this with fear of going bust. I just don't get it. I'm unlike anyone here basically, so people automatically assume my ways are "incorrect." If there's anything in sports betting I truly "get" it's baseball.
You bet baseball for what- 3 months last year before quitting? And I'm pretty sure you haven't bet anything this season. You've gathered some good information from quality handicappers - but don't pass it off as something you've executed for years and years with great success.
 
I'm unlike anyone here basically, so people automatically assume my ways are "incorrect." If there's anything in sports betting I truly "get" it's baseball.
And listen you self absorbed brat, nobody automatically assumes anything about you but you seem to do a lot of assuming about everyone else.We know you "get" it and I'm sure you do the dance of the faeries when you hit 1 out of 10 with a huge score on a big dog. That's fantastic dude.
:shrug: :angry: :lmao:
 
5% BR bets that the syndicate is making is just crazy to me. You almost have to stay away from big dogs and play games around the mendoza line to not hit a cold spell. I don't mind football 5% bets, but in baseball you can EASILY go 0-10, 0-15 in the course of a few days. But, you're successful and have guys who know what they're doing, so who am I to question you guys.
5% was my suggestion - mainly because it was just a handful of plays a day and losing the bankroll was not anything close to the end of the world dollarwise. We looked at the goal of the project and 5% was perfect.
I still think 5% is nuts in any sport, let alone bases. You have such a greater chance of going broke because of the full card everyday. Football is alright to me because it's 20 full cards (in the NFL). Less chance of going 0-20 or even 0-15 and going broke. I will never understand a 5% BR for bases - your limited in what you can play. I don't have to dig up the "streak" stats of hitting a bad patch, you already know them.As for me last season in bases, yeh I played for the last 4 months (didn't quit - the vaunted Yanks made me a lot of money in the playoffs), but when I played I didn't do it half ###. I put in 6 hr days shopping and making tons of plays. I generally did beat the closing lines and yes I learned a lot from pros who know more than me. I not only made money, but I learned a lot about how much different baseball is than any other sport. You give me one sport to only bet and I would easily turn to baseball.

Wager your money however you'd like, I just think 5% is crazy for bases.

 
Steelnation said:
Not sure what the line is but I expect the Bronx Bombers to bounce back tonight.Does anyone know the ML on Bodog?Thanks
Pinny has NYY -155, but I would be careful here. Wang is overrated - he counts a lot on the defense behind hm as he does not miss many bats and kazmir is clearly the Rays best starter.
 
Steelnation said:
Not sure what the line is but I expect the Bronx Bombers to bounce back tonight.Does anyone know the ML on Bodog?Thanks
Pinny has NYY -155, but I would be careful here. Wang is overrated - he counts a lot on the defense behind hm as he does not miss many bats and kazmir is clearly the Rays best starter.
Thanks ABI just can't see them losing 5 straightI also really like the Twins - Indians U/8
 
Steelnation said:
Not sure what the line is but I expect the Bronx Bombers to bounce back tonight.Does anyone know the ML on Bodog?Thanks
Pinny has NYY -155, but I would be careful here. Wang is overrated - he counts a lot on the defense behind hm as he does not miss many bats and kazmir is clearly the Rays best starter.
That is ridiculous. I can't believe its that high, it was -127 at Bet Jamaica last night. I would bet Kazmir if he is +145.
 
Steelnation said:
Not sure what the line is but I expect the Bronx Bombers to bounce back tonight.Does anyone know the ML on Bodog?Thanks
Pinny has NYY -155, but I would be careful here. Wang is overrated - he counts a lot on the defense behind hm as he does not miss many bats and kazmir is clearly the Rays best starter.
That is ridiculous. I can't believe its that high, it was -127 at Bet Jamaica last night. I would bet Kazmir if he is +145.
Just checked and BoDog is at -120, I am all over itPounding the Twins - Indians U/8 as wellGL fellas
 
Steelnation said:
Not sure what the line is but I expect the Bronx Bombers to bounce back tonight.Does anyone know the ML on Bodog?Thanks
Pinny has NYY -155, but I would be careful here. Wang is overrated - he counts a lot on the defense behind hm as he does not miss many bats and kazmir is clearly the Rays best starter.
That is ridiculous. I can't believe its that high, it was -127 at Bet Jamaica last night. I would bet Kazmir if he is +145.
JTC - here is the line copied and pasted from PINNY:Tue 4/24 971 New York YankeesC. Wang -1.5 -108 -155 OVER 10 -107 04:10 PM 972 Tampa Bay Devil RaysS. Kazmir +1.5 -102 +147 UNDER 10 -103 I agree with you that the play is either TB ML or no play at all.
 
Steelnation said:
Not sure what the line is but I expect the Bronx Bombers to bounce back tonight.Does anyone know the ML on Bodog?Thanks
Pinny has NYY -155, but I would be careful here. Wang is overrated - he counts a lot on the defense behind hm as he does not miss many bats and kazmir is clearly the Rays best starter.
That is ridiculous. I can't believe its that high, it was -127 at Bet Jamaica last night. I would bet Kazmir if he is +145.
Just checked and BoDog is at -120, I am all over itPounding the Twins - Indians U/8 as wellGL fellas
Yanks -165 at BoDog. Good luck with that. Rays +150 or +1' +100 is correct here.
 
Our card today.

Selection #1

4/24/2007 8:10 PM - (EST) Baseball MLB

Wager Type:Straight Bet

Cincinnati Reds

Money Line +130 for Game

A Harang -R must Start K Wells -R must Start

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------

Selection #2

4/24/2007 9:40 PM - (EST) Baseball MLB

Wager Type:Straight Bet

San Diego Padres

Money Line +132 for Game

D Wells -L must Start R Johnson -L must Start

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------

Selection #3

4/24/2007 10:10 PM - (EST) Baseball MLB

Wager Type:Straight Bet

San Francisco Giants/Los Angeles Dodgers

Total Points OVER 8 -120 for Game

M Morris -R must Start D Lowe -R must Start

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------

Selection #4

4/24/2007 7:10 PM - (EST) Baseball MLB

Wager Type:Straight Bet

Tampa Bay Devil Rays

Money Line +147 for Game

C Wang -R must Start S Kazmir -L must Start

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------

Selection #5

4/24/2007 3:35 PM - (EST) Baseball MLB

Wager Type:Straight Bet

Detroit Tigers

Money Line -111 for Game

J Bonderman -R must Start K Escobar -R must Start

------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------

Selection #6

4/24/2007 2:05 PM - (EST) Baseball MLB

Wager Type:Straight Bet

Seattle Mariners/Texas Rangers

Total Points OVER 10 -110 for Game

J Washburn -L must Start V Padilla -R must Start

 

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