BRONG
FOR A LIMITED TIME ONLY
I am leaving on my rim to rim Grand Canyon hike so I wont be around until later next week. I am hoping on scoring some peotye for the hikeGood luck to all and I will see you on the other side of next week.
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*** Official Baseball Wagering Thread *** (1 Viewer)
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- Start date
Well, this was spot on....as I managed to go 0-3 last night. Fortunately I was able to show some self discipline and not increase my unit size, so last nights baseball losses were just a bump in the road.Of course, I did get a nice kick to the nuts playing poker last night. Bought in for $100 at a .50/1 5-card draw game. Played uber tight unless I had a real hand....and then I get dealt two pair a's and nines. Raise it up to $3 and get one caller. I draw one, he draws two. I drew a nine, for nines full of aces. Check/raised him and then got a re-raise. Needless to say one of us was losing his stack this hand......and when he flipped tens full of queens, I asked my wife if she would mind cleaning up this pile of vomit I left in the living room. :XAnd now I'm really #######guru_007 said:
Really cleaned up the past two days. Tonight we have a full schedule, which almost certainly means I'll piss away most of my winnings. Hopefully I can unearth a nugget or two that may help someone else.
, I'm talking Bruce Willis in Die Hard 2 I think I got 
lastnight. Only good thing was wife didn't meet my morning friskiness with any resistance 
So, I'm going to go back to my old system of tailing the wisest looking plays over here, only playing sng's online and not drinking bourbon after beer anymore...just before. As I'm not 25 anymore 
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
I think the Giants are probably a good play at that number.
Well, this was spot on....as I managed to go 0-3 last night. Fortunately I was able to show some self discipline and not increase my unit size, so last nights baseball losses were just a bump in the road.Of course, I did get a nice kick to the nuts playing poker last night. Bought in for $100 at a .50/1 5-card draw game. Played uber tight unless I had a real hand....and then I get dealt two pair a's and nines. Raise it up to $3 and get one caller. I draw one, he draws two. I drew a nine, for nines full of aces. Check/raised him and then got a re-raise. Needless to say one of us was losing his stack this hand......and when he flipped tens full of queens, I asked my wife if she would mind cleaning up this pile of vomit I left in the living room. :XAnd now I'm really #######guru_007 said:, I'm talking Bruce Willis in Die Hard 2
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
Hoping to get off the snide today with a handful of plays:
Chw/Tor u9 +110 -- this is steaming over due to Danks last really bad start but other then that he's been solid this year. Both offenses are very average - outside of the huge 8th inning yesterday, neither game in this series has came close to 9. Marcum has been great the last 3 starts for Toronto
Det/Cle u10.5 -115 -- I haven't seen the lineups yet, but any starter not playing (victor martinez perhaps?) is a bonus here. This whole series has soared over which helps us get a better number. Like Bonderman on the mound and Sowers whip has been better -surviving a tough last assignment @ Boston.
Seattle -124 -- very hot bats for the surging Mariners. Rookie gets his first home start after a respectable effort @ LAA last time. Tejada and the Ranger are failing, Tejada especially is nothing great to write home about. Small chalk for the better team (home), better pitcher and better BP.
Baltimore +140 -- Santana's splits have been well documented and it's shown in how this line has crept up already today. Guthrie has been tremendous, giving Baltimore a chance to win all of his games. Orioles came into this series hot, and are a live dog here to split this series. I'll take the +140.
glta
Chw/Tor u9 +110 -- this is steaming over due to Danks last really bad start but other then that he's been solid this year. Both offenses are very average - outside of the huge 8th inning yesterday, neither game in this series has came close to 9. Marcum has been great the last 3 starts for Toronto
Det/Cle u10.5 -115 -- I haven't seen the lineups yet, but any starter not playing (victor martinez perhaps?) is a bonus here. This whole series has soared over which helps us get a better number. Like Bonderman on the mound and Sowers whip has been better -surviving a tough last assignment @ Boston.
Seattle -124 -- very hot bats for the surging Mariners. Rookie gets his first home start after a respectable effort @ LAA last time. Tejada and the Ranger are failing, Tejada especially is nothing great to write home about. Small chalk for the better team (home), better pitcher and better BP.
Baltimore +140 -- Santana's splits have been well documented and it's shown in how this line has crept up already today. Guthrie has been tremendous, giving Baltimore a chance to win all of his games. Orioles came into this series hot, and are a live dog here to split this series. I'll take the +140.
glta
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Updated Record:
Parlays 1-5 +7.5 units
Totals 30-36-3 -8.25 units
Sides 36-29 +14.68 units
Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):
26-19 +11.96 units
Total:+25.89 units
Parlays 1-5 +7.5 units
Totals 30-36-3 -8.25 units
Sides 36-29 +14.68 units
Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):
26-19 +11.96 units
Total:+25.89 units
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
Thanks Chris Ray
General Malaise
Footballguy
Chris Ray can blow me.
But as bad as I hate him right now, there's little in the world I hate more right now than the San Francisco bullpen. Do they not even have a general manager or something? No minor league system? I'm a long suffering Texas Rangers fan and I've lived through some horrid bullpens, but I can't recall anything this unreliable in the history of baseball.
But as bad as I hate him right now, there's little in the world I hate more right now than the San Francisco bullpen. Do they not even have a general manager or something? No minor league system? I'm a long suffering Texas Rangers fan and I've lived through some horrid bullpens, but I can't recall anything this unreliable in the history of baseball.
Giants +104 And Under 9.5
Barry Zito (SF) vs. Jon Lieber (PHI) -
Which Barry Zito is going to show up? Zito is 2-1 in his L3 games w/ 4.00era, 18ip, 16h, 10bb, 11k. The numbers (walks & era) are skewed from the Oakland start but he has gone 7ip in his last 2 games (Hou & NYM) and won both. He has not faced the Phillies this yr. Zito is 2-3 on the road w/ 4.80era., but he has only given up 10 hits and 1 run in his last 14 innings
Lieber is 1-1 in his L3 games w/ 5.79era, 18.2ip, 25h, 3bb, 15k and has faced the Giants this yr, away, where he got the L over 6ip, 7h, 4er, 2bb, 1k. Lieber is 2-2 at home w/ a slightly better era than on the road. In his last 5 starts against the Giants, he has never given up less than 4 ER. Bonds will be back in the lineup, which should cause problems for Lieber. Lieber has seen him 40 times, giving up 5 HR's and walking Bonds 9 times. Klesko will be in the lineup for the Giants also, and Lieber has faced him 41 times, giving up 16 hits, including 4 HR's and 15 RBI's, while walking him 5 times.
Phillies don't hit LHP that well and Giants hit RHP better than LHP. The Phillies have all sorts of problems with left handed pitching (.201 last 10 games, .198 last 5 games and .235 overall).
Ump is 4-7 O/U this yr w/ 62.5% of pitches called for strikes
O/U in the series this yr is 5-2
Phillies lead series 4-3
I think going with Zito is a good play today, and if he's on his game today, I would expect a low scoring outing from him. The Giants will score runs off Lieber so that's the only concern I have towards the O/U. I think the Giants win today 6-2 or so.
Barry Zito (SF) vs. Jon Lieber (PHI) -
Which Barry Zito is going to show up? Zito is 2-1 in his L3 games w/ 4.00era, 18ip, 16h, 10bb, 11k. The numbers (walks & era) are skewed from the Oakland start but he has gone 7ip in his last 2 games (Hou & NYM) and won both. He has not faced the Phillies this yr. Zito is 2-3 on the road w/ 4.80era., but he has only given up 10 hits and 1 run in his last 14 innings
Lieber is 1-1 in his L3 games w/ 5.79era, 18.2ip, 25h, 3bb, 15k and has faced the Giants this yr, away, where he got the L over 6ip, 7h, 4er, 2bb, 1k. Lieber is 2-2 at home w/ a slightly better era than on the road. In his last 5 starts against the Giants, he has never given up less than 4 ER. Bonds will be back in the lineup, which should cause problems for Lieber. Lieber has seen him 40 times, giving up 5 HR's and walking Bonds 9 times. Klesko will be in the lineup for the Giants also, and Lieber has faced him 41 times, giving up 16 hits, including 4 HR's and 15 RBI's, while walking him 5 times.
Phillies don't hit LHP that well and Giants hit RHP better than LHP. The Phillies have all sorts of problems with left handed pitching (.201 last 10 games, .198 last 5 games and .235 overall).
Ump is 4-7 O/U this yr w/ 62.5% of pitches called for strikes
O/U in the series this yr is 5-2
Phillies lead series 4-3
I think going with Zito is a good play today, and if he's on his game today, I would expect a low scoring outing from him. The Giants will score runs off Lieber so that's the only concern I have towards the O/U. I think the Giants win today 6-2 or so.
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
Lefty dog vs. the Phils is a good bet. San fran should salvage a split today.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
It's not Zito that I worry about, its what happens after Zito exits the game. I think Zito will be decent today but the Giants bullpen still scares me. They imploded yesterday, I just hope this meltdown doesn't carry over.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Good stuff Spider. I like the Giants too, but I agree with JTC on that BP. It's getting impossible to trust the Giants with any size lead right now.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Gotta play the RedSox tonight at +141. Tavarez has been more than holding his own lately and Oakland just does not score enough runs to really scare me. I know Haren has been lights out but there is not a whole room for error if Haren doesn't completly shut down the Sox offense. The price makes this one worth it.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Baltimore +126 tonight is a nice once. I think Hernandez is still ailing from the elbow injury and isn't the dominant guy he was in April.
Bedard is rounding into a force. The return of Hernandez has really helped him a lot.
Bedard is rounding into a force. The return of Hernandez has really helped him a lot.
Royals/Tampa Bay UNDER 8
Meche....3.00 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 57 K's
Shields....3.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 69 K's and only 17 walks
The Royals have been cold vs. RH's (.253, A - .251, L10 - .223).
Shields is 1-0 w/ 3.13era, 23ip, 22h, 7bb, 15k over his L3 games. He is 1-0 w/ 0.00era, 6ip, 6h in 1career start vs. Royals.
Meche has been much worse on the road in the L3 years (ERA; H - 4.35, A - 5.31) although not this year (H - 4.11, A - 1.41).
In his career, Meche is 1-3 w/ 5.52era, 6g, 31ip, 38h, 19k, 10bb, 25k vs. Tampa.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Shields last 7 starts, and 4-2 in Meche's last 6
Ump for the game is 3-8 O/U this year and calling strikes at 61.7%
Meche....3.00 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 57 K's
Shields....3.13 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 69 K's and only 17 walks
The Royals have been cold vs. RH's (.253, A - .251, L10 - .223).
Shields is 1-0 w/ 3.13era, 23ip, 22h, 7bb, 15k over his L3 games. He is 1-0 w/ 0.00era, 6ip, 6h in 1career start vs. Royals.
Meche has been much worse on the road in the L3 years (ERA; H - 4.35, A - 5.31) although not this year (H - 4.11, A - 1.41).
In his career, Meche is 1-3 w/ 5.52era, 6g, 31ip, 38h, 19k, 10bb, 25k vs. Tampa.
The UNDER is 5-2 in Shields last 7 starts, and 4-2 in Meche's last 6
Ump for the game is 3-8 O/U this year and calling strikes at 61.7%
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
We took KC +136 in the next game. Good price on Meche here and if KC can get Shields out reasonably early, the Tampa bullpen is usually very easy to score on.
Cubs/Brewers O 9 :
Marquis is 2-0 w/ 2.76 on the road this yr in 5games, but in his last 3, he is only 0-1 w/ 5.00era, 18ip, 20h, 7bb, 12k. Career vs Milwaukee, Marquis is 4-6 w/ 4.30 vs. Brewers.
Bush has been inconsisent this year as well, and the Cubs actually beat him in April earlier this year after scoring 5 runs in the 1st inning off him. In his last 3 games he is 0-2 w/ 6.05era, 19.1ip, 23h, 4bb, 14k. At home this yr Bush is 2-3 w/ 4.71era in 6games
On the yr the Cubs hit RHP better than LHP and the Brewers are basically even facing pitching from both sides.
Brewers are an excellent home team at 21-10 so far, Cubs 12-14 on the road.
My lean is OVER 9 here at this point as Marquis is coming back to earth, Bush isn't very good, and neither bullpen is anything special.
Still deciding on a side here, but may play the value with the Cubs as they have already beaten Bush this season, and coming off the 10 runs yesterday, might they be able to hit back and back ?
Marquis is 2-0 w/ 2.76 on the road this yr in 5games, but in his last 3, he is only 0-1 w/ 5.00era, 18ip, 20h, 7bb, 12k. Career vs Milwaukee, Marquis is 4-6 w/ 4.30 vs. Brewers.
Bush has been inconsisent this year as well, and the Cubs actually beat him in April earlier this year after scoring 5 runs in the 1st inning off him. In his last 3 games he is 0-2 w/ 6.05era, 19.1ip, 23h, 4bb, 14k. At home this yr Bush is 2-3 w/ 4.71era in 6games
On the yr the Cubs hit RHP better than LHP and the Brewers are basically even facing pitching from both sides.
Brewers are an excellent home team at 21-10 so far, Cubs 12-14 on the road.
My lean is OVER 9 here at this point as Marquis is coming back to earth, Bush isn't very good, and neither bullpen is anything special.
Still deciding on a side here, but may play the value with the Cubs as they have already beaten Bush this season, and coming off the 10 runs yesterday, might they be able to hit back and back ?
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
Good writeup earlier on the KC/TB under. I liked that one (but had no access for the afternoon game).
I have four plays tonight again:
Chicago Cubs +122 - maybe a little momentum after the win yesterday? Last 10 these teams are virtual identical. I found some small value in the Cubs as a dog, although I do agree Marquis is close to a fade at this point. Bush is no better, despite his last start. Marquis had a rough one last time but his previous was 7 strong on the road @ SD. Perhaps getting on the road gives the cubbies a little boost as well.
Minnesota +135 - I liked this dog slightly better then Baltimore later so went with the Twins instead. Bonser has been tremendous of late - team is hitting well recently - especially against right handers (.306 in their last 10).
Min/LAA u8 -115 - neither starter has faced the opposition before plus we have two excellent bullpens in play tonight. I really see something in the 4-2 range here so I leaned under.
Bal/Seattle o7.5 -115 - two things working for us here. Bedard is due somewhat down after being dominant of late BUT his road numbers aren't as good as his home splits. Seattle has been crushing the ball of late as well. Second, I don't think Felix is healthy, his whip certainly is not, and Seattle's bullpen is not that great. If I had more $$$ in bodog I would throw down on +128 for the O's as well, but I think the over is an even better play.
I have four plays tonight again:
Chicago Cubs +122 - maybe a little momentum after the win yesterday? Last 10 these teams are virtual identical. I found some small value in the Cubs as a dog, although I do agree Marquis is close to a fade at this point. Bush is no better, despite his last start. Marquis had a rough one last time but his previous was 7 strong on the road @ SD. Perhaps getting on the road gives the cubbies a little boost as well.
Minnesota +135 - I liked this dog slightly better then Baltimore later so went with the Twins instead. Bonser has been tremendous of late - team is hitting well recently - especially against right handers (.306 in their last 10).
Min/LAA u8 -115 - neither starter has faced the opposition before plus we have two excellent bullpens in play tonight. I really see something in the 4-2 range here so I leaned under.
Bal/Seattle o7.5 -115 - two things working for us here. Bedard is due somewhat down after being dominant of late BUT his road numbers aren't as good as his home splits. Seattle has been crushing the ball of late as well. Second, I don't think Felix is healthy, his whip certainly is not, and Seattle's bullpen is not that great. If I had more $$$ in bodog I would throw down on +128 for the O's as well, but I think the over is an even better play.
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Two late night plays tonight:
Balt +140: I think this is a great value and like Bedard in this spot. Felix has not been the same since returning - Nice call on this GM;
OAK -150: I am fading Tavarez and Boston, particularly after a 9th inning loss by Boston last night, flying cross country and a possible letdown after the NYY series.
GLTA
Balt +140: I think this is a great value and like Bedard in this spot. Felix has not been the same since returning - Nice call on this GM;
OAK -150: I am fading Tavarez and Boston, particularly after a 9th inning loss by Boston last night, flying cross country and a possible letdown after the NYY series.
GLTA
Christ... this is f'd already. Brewers with the bases loaded TWICE in the 1st 2 innings and they can't scratch.Cubs had 2 runners on in the 1st and they score 1.
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Oakland -150, wow. I'd shoot myself before I played them at that price against anyone, let alone the team with the best record in baseball.Good luck, we are on opposite sides for sure.Best Regards,MarshallPlan
Last edited by a moderator:
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
F'n Boof 
Action plays only tonight.....Bal/Sea o7.5Hernandez hasn't been himself since his injury, and the Mariners have been hot. I think this one flies over (been)LAA -1.5Just a feeling
This just about settles it. No more sober betting 
JaxBill
Footballguy
Yeah, I like Mitre in the opener of the DH. I'm leery of the under because with the nightcap tonight, if either team is down by a few runs they could leave somebody out there to take one for the team. With a day game tomorrow, the Marlins-Braves are playing 4 games in < 48 hours.
I also like the Brewers and Vargas tonight. Any thoughts on that? I mean, there's no way the Cubbies can win 3 straight, right?
I also like the Brewers and Vargas tonight. Any thoughts on that? I mean, there's no way the Cubbies can win 3 straight, right?
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
Another split, coming out nearly even on the day. At first glance yesterday I liked Cubs/Brewers o8.5. Both Vargas and Lilly are starting to fade, getting in under 9 is a positive.RedRaiders said:
That game should have gone over by the 5th inning. Milwaukee had Marquis on the ropes every inning, and couldn't get a big hit.After all that, I can't argue with the push though.I suppose I should feel fortunate that I pushed.Green94 said:
RedRaiders
Mr. +EV
Anyone else still playing at Bodog? Their MLB contest ended yesterday. Your handle for the month translates to MLB.com gift certificates (2500 = $25, 5000 = $50 increments). I'm pretty sure I just slipped over 5k for the last month so while I may never see any scrilla from them, at least I'll have $50 worth of Phillies gear.
Oh I know, Brewers had the bases loaded TWICE in the 1st 2 innings. Ridiculous. Couldn't push across anything.That game should have gone over by the 5th inning. Milwaukee had Marquis on the ropes every inning, and couldn't get a big hit.After all that, I can't argue with the push though.I suppose I should feel fortunate that I pushed.Green94 said:
Steelnation
Footballguy
I look for the Red Sox and Braves to bounce back big today
I also think the Cubs continue their winning ways
I also think the Cubs continue their winning ways
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
Admittedly the A's were a little high on the juice last night, but I liked em' to win so the extra 10-15 cents did not bother me as much as it probably should have........... 1-1 on the night - exactly even.
Updated Record:
Parlays 1-5 +7.5 units
Totals 30-36-3 -8.25 units
Sides 37-30 +14.68 units
Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):
26-19 +11.96 units
Total:+25.89 units
Updated Record:
Parlays 1-5 +7.5 units
Totals 30-36-3 -8.25 units
Sides 37-30 +14.68 units
Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):
26-19 +11.96 units
Total:+25.89 units
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
Watched the game last night, the A's do not look like a good team at all to me. Alan Embree closing out games is a joke and their lineup is pretty weak.
The Sox had a lot of guys on the bench last night (it really was a JV team) and a pretty limited bullpen without the use of their key guys and still should have won that game. If not for a couple of errors and some shoddy D, they would have won.
This is not sour grapes just an observation.
The Sox had a lot of guys on the bench last night (it really was a JV team) and a pretty limited bullpen without the use of their key guys and still should have won that game. If not for a couple of errors and some shoddy D, they would have won.
This is not sour grapes just an observation.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Dear Baltimore Bullpen.
Go #### yourselves in the ear. Go #### yourselves and then stand out in front of the subway. Go #### yourselves and eat a tainted ham sandwich. Go #### yourselves and stick your fat ####### ugly faces in the urinal. 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th, nobody on and you have a 1 run lead. Way to hunker down and close that one out. The San Francisco Giants Bullpen thinks you suck. Mitch Williams thinks you have control problems. You mother ####### bunch of Hemorrhoids have robbed money from me for the last mother ####### time. Any of you cashing a paycheck is beyond criminal. May you all - ALL - get demoted to the minors in some ####ty state like Iowa or France.
#### you.
Go #### yourselves in the ear. Go #### yourselves and then stand out in front of the subway. Go #### yourselves and eat a tainted ham sandwich. Go #### yourselves and stick your fat ####### ugly faces in the urinal. 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th, nobody on and you have a 1 run lead. Way to hunker down and close that one out. The San Francisco Giants Bullpen thinks you suck. Mitch Williams thinks you have control problems. You mother ####### bunch of Hemorrhoids have robbed money from me for the last mother ####### time. Any of you cashing a paycheck is beyond criminal. May you all - ALL - get demoted to the minors in some ####ty state like Iowa or France.
#### you.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Dear Baltimore Bullpen.
Go #### yourselves in the ear. Go #### yourselves and then stand out in front of the subway. Go #### yourselves and eat a tainted ham sandwich. Go #### yourselves and stick your fat ####### ugly faces in the urinal. 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th, nobody on and you have a 1 run lead. Way to hunker down and close that one out. The San Francisco Giants Bullpen thinks you suck. Mitch Williams thinks you have control problems. You mother ####### bunch of Hemorrhoids have robbed money from me for the last mother ####### time. Any of you cashing a paycheck is beyond criminal. May you all - ALL - get demoted to the minors in some ####ty state like Iowa or France.
#### you.
Go #### yourselves in the ear. Go #### yourselves and then stand out in front of the subway. Go #### yourselves and eat a tainted ham sandwich. Go #### yourselves and stick your fat ####### ugly faces in the urinal. 2 outs in the bottom of the 8th, nobody on and you have a 1 run lead. Way to hunker down and close that one out. The San Francisco Giants Bullpen thinks you suck. Mitch Williams thinks you have control problems. You mother ####### bunch of Hemorrhoids have robbed money from me for the last mother ####### time. Any of you cashing a paycheck is beyond criminal. May you all - ALL - get demoted to the minors in some ####ty state like Iowa or France.
#### you.
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