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*** Official Baseball Wagering Thread *** (1 Viewer)

Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Angry Beavers said:
Min -145: This must be too good to be true for Santana. I faded Santana last week against Detroit. Today, I back him.GLTA
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I thought the same thing when I first saw Santana, but looking closer I can see why it's not so high. Toronto sure likes LHP, hitting around 50 points higher. They also beat him here last year, pounding out 10 hits in 5 and 2/3. Not that it will matter tonight, just finding the reasons behind the "value" is all.That being said, I watched that Detroit loss and he still looked great. Ordonez just has his number for some reason (think his lifetime BA is over .400). Detroit was fortunate to get some runners on when he came up too. So he gets a free pass on that one for sure. Also, I'm not big on Marcum and he is not pithing well to boot, so I guess this is enough for me to join ya... :confused:
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my bad here sonny. I should have spent more time looking at this.
 
TheLimeChicken said:
Long time lurker, first time poster. Now that the obligatory talk-radio introduction sentence is out of the way....

Since Steelnation is itching for some activity I figure now is as good a time as any to throw my picks out on the board and, on the selfish side, maybe posting them on a board will help me keep track of things a bit better since I'm no record keeper. I know I'm down about 5 units on the year, with the caveat that I've really only gotten into a steady swing of things about a week before the all-star break, so it could be much worse...but it's all for fun anyway, right?

Since I've never met a game I didn't like there's seven on my card tonight...

Atlanta Braves (Smoltz) -111 I'll take Smoltz in a pennant race over the most boring team in baseball (to me anyway). Braves to win despite the fact that SF has scored 29 in their last 4. Add in the fact that Atlanta has gone double digits in two of the last four and you get...

Atl/SF Over 8 +100

Seattle Mariners +112 I see this one pretty even, just taking the better overall team with the positive vig.

Sea/Tex Under 10 +100 Hitter's park, two starters with ERA's north of 5, screams 11-10. Which means if I go with the over it'll be a 2-1 game.

Det/CWS Under 9.5 -125 Buehrle's been hot since his extension and Miller managed to outduel Santana last time out, I'll go under.

NYY/KC Under 10 -115 Score 21 and I'm going under the next game, that's just the way it is.

Mil/Cin Under 9 +100 Honestly, I've got no reasoning here, I'm just playing it.

Feel free to praise/ridicule/pick apart my picks, just please don't follow them. I don't want to be held responsible for draining anyone's bank account.
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Tough debut, Chicken, going 2 - 5, but :lmao: nonetheless. :lmao:
 
3-2

+.55 units

Updated Record:

Parlays 2-8 +6.65 units

Totals 36-40-5 -7.6 units

Sides 53-39 +24.28 units

Chase Plays (Which are not part of the above):

30-23+12.38 units

Total:+35.71 units

Welcome LimeChicken :confused:

 
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I do not see anything I like today except for the Seat/Tex over in game 1, but based upon my totals record I am probably better off fading myself or not playing this at all. :confused:

GLTA

 
Morning Fellas

:popcorn: Lime Chicken!

SLBD - Nice call on Santana, wish you would have brought your take earlier in the day

At first glance I don't see much I really like

Initial leans

Indians

Bronx Bombers

 
Todays card so far.

Gm1 Seat +104

Gm1 Seat/Tex U11 +100

Pitt/NYM U8 -105

Parlay Lad/Hou O9.5 -120, Chc -133, SD -145

 
I like Boston today. Something seems to be wrong with Sabathia. He has given up home runs in his last 3 outings, his strikeouts are down and in general just giving up more runs. Boston seems to have righted the ship and they are scoring runs again. +114 is fine for this spot.

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
I like Boston today. Something seems to be wrong with Sabathia. He has given up home runs in his last 3 outings, his strikeouts are down and in general just giving up more runs. Boston seems to have righted the ship and they are scoring runs again. +114 is fine for this spot.
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Based on that, I may just stay away from both sides.Also looking atTampaCubs
 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Zombie Kid said:
Mitre EVEN tomorrow. I'm loving this play.
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WHY?
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Yeah, I am curious as to why as well. Arizona is rolling right now, 3 winners in a row and two of them vs a hot Cubs team at Wrigley. I think I am passing this game but not liking Florida much in this one.
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I have no opinion on the play (don't know Mitre really), but since he loves it, I just wanted to find out why exactly.
 
Thanks for the welcome guys. Rough night, but we've all had them and I'm more than used to them :jawdrop: .

No computer at work for me, so afternoon games usually get missed, but looking quickly tonight there's only one game that I like and it's probably a homer pick.

Boston Red Sox (Matsuzaka) over Cleveland (Sabathia)

I know Dice-K hasn't been great his past three outings and has looked downright bad at times, but these bad stretches usually only seem to last one inning. If he can throw strikes and keep the damage in his one bad inning to a minimum the Sox should be alright. Especially with the bats, especially Manny's (no #'s in front of me, but he's got to be around .450 since the break), coming alive lately. Sabathia's a guy who I really don't like to bet because he's just a conundrum to me, whenever I think he'll be great he's not and when I lose confidence he starts to look great. I also like going with pitchers who are facing a team for the first time, especially one as talented as Dice-K, so with the Sox trending upwards after a little lull I'm looking for them to extend their winning streak tonight.

 
TheLimeChicken said:
Boston Red Sox (Matsuzaka) over Cleveland (Sabathia)

I also like going with pitchers who are facing a team for the first time, especially one as talented as Dice-K, so with the Sox trending upwards after a little lull I'm looking for them to extend their winning streak tonight.
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Dice-K got shelled AT HOME against Cleveland earlier this year. Went 5.2 giving up 12 hits and 6ER.
 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
TheLimeChicken said:
Boston Red Sox (Matsuzaka) over Cleveland (Sabathia)

I also like going with pitchers who are facing a team for the first time, especially one as talented as Dice-K, so with the Sox trending upwards after a little lull I'm looking for them to extend their winning streak tonight.
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Dice-K got shelled AT HOME against Cleveland earlier this year. Went 5.2 giving up 12 hits and 6ER.
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Great...This is why I usually stay away from the Red Sox. I've watched/listened to every game this year and have no recollection of a Cleveland series, I honestly thought this was the first time we played them. Spending so much time following a team why would I bother to check my facts? I just figure I know these things.I still stand by my Boston pick though.

 
TheLimeChicken said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
TheLimeChicken said:
Boston Red Sox (Matsuzaka) over Cleveland (Sabathia)

I also like going with pitchers who are facing a team for the first time, especially one as talented as Dice-K, so with the Sox trending upwards after a little lull I'm looking for them to extend their winning streak tonight.
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Dice-K got shelled AT HOME against Cleveland earlier this year. Went 5.2 giving up 12 hits and 6ER.
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Great...This is why I usually stay away from the Red Sox. I've watched/listened to every game this year and have no recollection of a Cleveland series, I honestly thought this was the first time we played them. Spending so much time following a team why would I bother to check my facts? I just figure I know these things.I still stand by my Boston pick though.
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I didn't take a side. Just sayin there was misinformation there. I like covers.com for some general info on matchups. Try it out if you want.
 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
I didn't take a side. Just sayin there was misinformation there. I like covers.com for some general info on matchups. Try it out if you want.
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No problem, thanks for the link, I tend to fly by the seat of my pants, so more info is nice, especially when it's all in the same place.One last play for me tonight just before first pitch

Chicago Cubs (Zambrano) -1.5 RL +110

Wells had a nice game last time out, but other than that has been downright awful. Two of his last five starts have only been two inning outings. There's got to be a trap here that I'm missing with the Cubs only at -139, but I'm chasing some of lasts nights losses with the RL

 
prosopis said:
Todays card so far.Gm1 Seat +104Gm1 Seat/Tex U11 +100Pitt/NYM U8 -105Parlay Lad/Hou O9.5 -120, Chc -133, SD -145
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Hitting the parlay made it a nice day. What is even better is I went to bed thinking I had lost it. I thought I had LAD as part of it.
 
Thanks for talking me out of the Indians yesterday fellas, ended up taking the Red Sox and O's :goodposting:

Pro - I would lean Col

Intial leans today

Indians again

Mets

Brewers

Nats

 
prosopis said:
I am leaning towards Det -135 tonight.
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So am I with Kenny "The Stopper" Rogers on the mound, who seems to stop both winning & losing streaks.Tigers are 4-0 in Rogers' last 4 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Tigers are 5-1 in Rogers' last 6 starts following a team loss in their previous game.

Tigers -135

 
Green94 said:
Steelnation said:
Thanks for talking me out of the Indians yesterday fellas, ended up taking the Red Sox and O's ;)
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So you went from betting the Indians, to not taking a side and staying away altogether, to betting on the Red Sox. :lmao: Quite the turn of events.
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I was leaning G94As I said yesterday I was :thumbup: about that game but after taking into consideration what the board had to say, and my partner wanted to roll with them....................I took them. Plus I was up from Monday so why not ;)

I am in the same :shrug: today however as I like the Indians to take this one with Carmona on the mound. But it is hard to go against Beckett

Anyone have any thoughts on that game?

 
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Steelnation said:
Green94 said:
Steelnation said:
Thanks for talking me out of the Indians yesterday fellas, ended up taking the Red Sox and O's :confused:
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So you went from betting the Indians, to not taking a side and staying away altogether, to betting on the Red Sox. :whistle: Quite the turn of events.
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I was leaning G94As I said yesterday I was :popcorn: about that game but after taking into consideration what the board had to say, and my partner wanted to roll with them....................I took them. Plus I was up from Monday so why not ;)

I am in the same :popcorn: today however as I like the Indians to take this one with Carmona on the mound. But it is hard to go against Beckett

Anyone have any thoughts on that game?
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You nailed it, its hard to go against Beckett. Bottom line is Red Sox are playing better than Cleveland right now, although last night certainly could have gone either way. But I think I would stay with the winning team here if I was playing it, since the price is the same.What's the incentive to take Carmona? You are betting on the Indians to get off the Schnide. Carmona and Beckett are at best a wash, so you need to bet on the come with the Indians, I think I would just stay with the hot team myself. Its a close matchup either way.

 
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Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Steelnation said:
Green94 said:
Steelnation said:
Thanks for talking me out of the Indians yesterday fellas, ended up taking the Red Sox and O's :thumbup:
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So you went from betting the Indians, to not taking a side and staying away altogether, to betting on the Red Sox. :lmao: Quite the turn of events.
Click to expand...
I was leaning G94As I said yesterday I was :confused: about that game but after taking into consideration what the board had to say, and my partner wanted to roll with them....................I took them. Plus I was up from Monday so why not ;)

I am in the same :pickle: today however as I like the Indians to take this one with Carmona on the mound. But it is hard to go against Beckett

Anyone have any thoughts on that game?
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You nailed it, its hard to go against Beckett. Bottom line is Red Sox are playing better than Cleveland right now, although last night certainly could have gone either way. But I think I would stay with the winning team here if I was playing it, since the price is the same.What's the incentive to take Carmona? You are betting on the Indians to get off the Schnide. Carmona and Beckett are at best a wash, so you need to bet on the come with the Indians, I think I would just stay with the hot team myself. Its a close matchup either way.
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Not as much I am betting on an Indian win but more a Bosox loss.....if that makes sense
 
Boy did I have a day yesterday. 5 - 0 for just over 9.35 units, best day of the season. The funny thing is, two plays (Oak and under) were only for a half unit each and I rarely do that. I went big on Zambrano and then Hudson. All games were nail-biters, big time. If anyone saw SF put up 4 in the bottom of 9, you know what I mean. F'ing Wickman! They put the winning run at 2nd I think 3 times after that but somewhow I still pulled it out in the 13th (when SF had the bases juiced). That was the difference between taking home 2 units, or 9, so I was glued to the tube!

What a blast when everything goes your way (rare)!

Anyway, today I only like one play, Atlanta. SF is a crappy team, so I like ATL to keep rolling at even money. James is on fire of late...

Looked at KC and Oakland a bit; possibly small plays...

 
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Anyway, today I only like one play, Atlanta. SF is a crappy team, so I like ATL to keep rolling at even money. James is on fire of late...
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I agree we are adding this one in.Also played Boston -105
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We'll see how hot I really am because I woke up minutes too late for that Toronto game, which I would have played for watching action.
 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Anyway, today I only like one play, Atlanta. SF is a crappy team, so I like ATL to keep rolling at even money. James is on fire of late...
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I agree we are adding this one in.Also played Boston -105
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We'll see how hot I really am because I woke up minutes too late for that Toronto game, which I would have played for watching action.
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Toronto in romp. Damnit! Always wonder if that means I'm still hot; or that my luck has changed. :goodposting: Anyway, nice hit JTC.Think I'll got with the over on the Angels/A's. 7.5 is kinda low. Day game in Animalheim and neither pitcher has been sharp of late...good enough for me.

 
Pitt +130: I think Gorzellany is underrated. I think Pitt steals one here

Boston +101: A Great value on Beckett against a struggling Cleveland team ( I am a psuedo cleveland fan having lived here for the last 20 years, and will be at the game tonight, but do not see the Tribe winning)

a one unit parlay to make a gazillion units (ok - 52 units):

LAD-165/ AZ -175/ ATL-105 /TB+ 180/ KC+130 /Detr -150

GLTA

 
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Jefferson the Caregiver said:
Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll said:
Anyway, today I only like one play, Atlanta. SF is a crappy team, so I like ATL to keep rolling at even money. James is on fire of late...
Click to expand...
I agree we are adding this one in.Also played Boston -105
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We'll see how hot I really am because I woke up minutes too late for that Toronto game, which I would have played for watching action.
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Toronto in romp. Damnit! Always wonder if that means I'm still hot; or that my luck has changed. :fishing: Anyway, nice hit JTC.Think I'll got with the over on the Angels/A's. 7.5 is kinda low. Day game in Animalheim and neither pitcher has been sharp of late...good enough for me.
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Over in the 5th. 2 units. May have to go bigger on the Braves at this rate... :shrug:
 
1-1 last night for +0.7 and a solid :rolleyes: 2-7 (-5.03 units) the last couple of days.

One play for tonight.

Florida +155.

I know the DBacks have won four straight and have their best pitcher taking the hill tonight, but Webb seems to get little support (3.79 r/g, 2.2 r/g over his last five). A pitcher with this talent is bound to get priced highly and when he's only around .500 it might be a decent shot to fade him.

Olsen's first start since his little incident. With all his off-field distractions he either sees the diamond as a respite and re-focuses enough to pitch a gem or he loses focus altogether and gets shelled early. Anything above +150 and I'm willing to bet the former.

 
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