*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (5 Viewers)

[pollardsvision]

Hindsight is 20/20.  There are a number of countries that didn't lockdown their population and haven't seen incredibly terrible infected rates.

 For those that handled it well, was their Government saying asymptomatic people should NOT get tested?

 

[rcam]

You can't explain away math.  Nobody is claiming the mortality rate is 3.5% anymore.  Most everyone agrees it's 1.0% or less.

Who are these people? Right now there are two countries that seem to have this "under control"; meaning, they did comprehensive testing, quarantining, isolation, and the health care system isn't currently overwhelmed - South Korea and China. They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely. For a the other countries in the top 10 of most infected we have a 33% mortality rate of cases with outcomes. Not sure how anyone with a straight face thinks that somehow those numbers are getting massaged to come in at 1% or lower.

 

[jplvr]

Who are these people? Right now there are two countries that seem to have this "under control"; meaning, they did comprehensive testing, quarantining, isolation, and the health care system isn't currently overwhelmed - South Korea and China. They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely. For a the other countries in the top 10 of most infected we have a 33% mortality rate of cases with outcomes. Not sure how anyone with a straight face thinks that somehow those numbers are getting massaged to come in at 1% or lower.

They are probably listening to experts saying things like it will end up averaging out to a .6% death rate, which is still a problem with a high infection rate.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Went for a quick walk on the Jupiter Beach and was there in the middle of ALL Beaches being closed in Florida. We were asked to go immediately. 

Went to a bar/restaurant and they are now under order take out only here in Florida. 

I got the last draft poured, I teared up a little. 

 

[msommer]

YES YOU CAN.  If it takes a while for people to die. Stop spreading misinformation.

Indeed - and if you don't test dead people, then....

 

[Doug B]

Most schools are moving to an online format.  Certainly those days will count.

 Nope.  Tanner mentioned elsewhere there is some Act that prohibits this because you can’t guarantee fair access to all students 

no online instruction during this time can be counted

This is true locally, and I assume throughout Louisiana.

Lots of online resources are being suggested for all grades, especially high schoolers. Our local school district also supplied paper packets in English Language Arts and Mathematics for my son's grade. However ... none of this work is meant to be checked or graded, even after schools resume.

There are a few exceptions, but they all involve studies outside of the usual public-school system. For instance, my daughter is taking an algebra class that is in partnership with one of the local universities That course has always been online from the start -- even when she attends the class in her physical high school, the students are all in front of laptops logging in and doing problems online. Anyway, that particular class is supposed to kept up with, and supposedly all work will be graded (  ).

My daughter's art school (optional program, but counts for HS credit) is also going fully online and will be assigning projects like normal and grading all material. They'll take attendance online every day, just like normal.

 

[Ilov80s]

If I’m reading correctly state of Michigan isn’t waiving school hour requirements so kids could be going to schools well into the summer 

@Ilov80s hearing anything more about this? 

That’s their stance right now. We will see what they say if we (inevitably?) close down longer. 

 

[matttyl]

They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely.

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

 

[msommer]

Did I hear them say 80% of people tested so far in US were negative?

Dunno, but that's not the case in Louisiana. Rate of negatives here is only 54.25% so far :(  

I wouldn't put too much into those numbers, it's all about the triage before the test

 

[MTskibum]

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

From your article.

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions

 

[matttyl]

From your article.

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions

Uh huh.  So they were undocumented positives, but have apparently since recovered?  Means the same in the end, wouldn’t it?  Others have said that we likely have multiple times the current infected amount.

 

[Anarchy99]

And fwiw, NYS’s death rate is 1.29%.

IMO, a better way to break this down would be that in NYS, the current ratio of reported number of fatalities-to-date vs. the reported number of  positive-tests-to-date = 1.29%.

Bear in mind that:

- The huge majority of people have not been tested (there could be tons of people infected)
- People tested too early could still be infected (some people have tested positive after multiple tests)
- There are any number of people currently hospitalized that are neither recovered nor deceased (so their outcomes are TBD)
 

 

[msommer]

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

IIRC, it is a math (statistics) paper not a empiric verification of how many are actually had/have tested positive in real life. Thus it is similar to those studies that came out of Hong Kong when everyone was hot on "proving" the Chinese government were underestimating the numbers.

 

[The Captain]

Can we avoid rumors like this.  We see articles, etc. lets post them but not word of mouth rumors.  

Agree. My apologies. 

 

[tonydead]

Who are these people? Right now there are two countries that seem to have this "under control"; meaning, they did comprehensive testing, quarantining, isolation, and the health care system isn't currently overwhelmed - South Korea and China. They currently have mortality rates (defined by cases with outcomes) of 4%. For a 1% or less death rate that means these countries would need to be missing (despite randomly testing thousands of people *and* tracing/testing contacts of positive cases) like 75% of the people actually infected. That seems highly unlikely. For a the other countries in the top 10 of most infected we have a 33% mortality rate of cases with outcomes. Not sure how anyone with a straight face thinks that somehow those numbers are getting massaged to come in at 1% or lower.

Since 80% of the cases have little or zero symptoms it is very likely.  I'd point to the WHO estimates of 1% (and apparently it's dropped since then) but I've wasted enough time to go back and find that again.  If you think China, with a population of 1.4 billion people did comprehensive testing I don't know what to tell you.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

Arkansas governor just announced closure of gyms, bars and restaurants.  

Little behind the curve.  

 

[matttyl]

So just a shade under 2 million deaths over the next year?  With the majority being older or those with pre ex conditions?  We have 2.8m US deaths in a given year already - with the majority being older and those with pre ex conditions.  Tough question to ask, but will all of these “lockdowns” and the destruction of the economy be worth it when this is all over?

Just realized that my math of 2 million deaths using the assumed .6% fatality rate assumes that all ~325m Americans get infected.  My bad.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I'm not trying to start an argument in any way but I want to reach out to folks in the MidWest who are watching this on TV and kind of looking at it like "It's not happening here yet"

-Even if you are NOT impacted personally and by that I mean a loved one becomes gravely ill with this thing...you are going to be inconvenienced in ways you had not thought of. I am cringing the closings of the one place I tend to take out my anger, the tennis courts. But why is it fair for me to go play there and the guy who works out in a gym to release his steam, his livelihood has been taken away? Golf courses! When are those going to be closed so the uber rich and a few blue collar types really feel the pinch of all this? Oh and I'm scheduled to play at 7:30AM tomorrow morn with my usual group of 12 guys on 3 courts round robin doubles so it's not like I am going to stop playing, we refuse. 

-I would stock up on anything you didn't think you needed to or else you are going to be one of those folks camping out at the grocery store or wherever at the break of dawn trying to intercept trucks with toilet paper and other things you will feel are essential items with everything closed. You don't have live sports to keep you occupied at home, you might want to think about books, music, anything you can still get on Amazon and have delivered because you are likely going to see sharp changes in your day to day life for some time and there isn't much you can do about it even if you go MOP on everyone which "I/Me" highly suggest you NOT do right now. 

No panic but make use of the time you have before things get crazy in your small town or area. I do think the further you are away form large groups of folks or big cities your chances of getting it are less but it only takes one or two folks coming back from visiting their stuck up Uncle in the big city to spread it to everyone where you are. 

 

[Doug B]

This blog was linked earlier today ... can't find the original posting, so I'm making a new post here:
 

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance (Medium.com, 3/19/2020)

Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

...

One thing I found interesting was this guy's opinion on the general public wearing masks (see below). If you buy into what the author is selling, [icon] is pretty vindicated in general regarding masks. And, if this guy was right ... authorities kind of misled the American people about the efficacy of wearing masks in public -- although there's been a lot of public conflation between advice about surgical earloop masks vs. advice about N95 respirators. 

Lower Public Contagiousness

The public is scared. The coronavirus is new. There’s so much we don’t know how to do yet! People haven’t learned to stop hand-shaking. They still hug. They don’t open doors with their elbow. They don’t wash their hands after touching a door knob. They don’t disinfect tables before sitting.

Once we have enough masks, we can use them outside of the healthcare system too. Right now, it’s better to keep masks for healthcare workers. But if they weren’t scarce, people should wear them in their daily lives, making it less likely that they infect other people when sick, and with proper training also reducing the likelihood that the wearers get infected. (In the meantime, wearing something is better than nothing.)

All of these are pretty cheap ways to reduce the transmission rate. The less this virus propagates, the fewer measures we’ll need in the future to contain it. But we need time to educate people on all these measures and equip them.

 

[H Jass]

YES YOU CAN.  If it takes a while for people to die. Stop spreading misinformation.

Strangely enough, this is the one, tiny silver lining I'm hoping will be the Achilles heel of this ******* bug.  Once testing is finally ramped up and you know you have it, I'm hoping there will be treatments soon to help lessen the progression.  Whether that be the malaria drug, one of the anti-virals, or some other bolt from the blue.  This disease has a long progression that is obviously killing our hospital bed space concerns, but maybe we'll eventually use that time to our advantage.

 

[Anarchy99]

I wouldn't put too much into those numbers, it's all about the triage before the test

Since everywhere is doing things differently testing wise, the statistics will vary greatly. Where I am, they don't have enough healthcare people and they don't want people coming in to medical facilities unless it is absolutely life threatening. So there will be people that would likely test positive that aren't getting tested at all. Even at hospitals, they have so many sick people to worry about that they aren't trying to test everyone. They are more concerned with what to do with them and trying to treat them. Several people have died that never got tested. IMO, the important number is how many people are requiring hospitalization, as you can only put so many people in the hospital. Whatever the statistics may or may not show isn't going to change that if someone is in grave condition FOR ANY REASON, there will be no way to treat him or her if the hospitals are full.

 

[Doug B]

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

From your article.

We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions

Good find and good post. I had seen that article and completely glossed over the point in red.

 

[top dog]

Watching DeWine's press conference right now.  Very somber.  He personally knew Ohio's first death.   :(

 

[IrishTwinkie]

Probably about 50 pages back by now, but someone linked to a study about China’s numbers saying they likely had missed about 86% of those actually infected due to testing limitations.  
 

found it-https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221

Unless I misread this... it is 86% were undocumented before stuff got seriously out of hand. Specifically:

"We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions."

This isn't saying that they missed 86% of all the cases period. It is saying they closed the barn doors too late. Two very different messages.

 

[Anarchy99]

I'm not trying to start an argument in any way but I want to reach out to folks in the MidWest who are watching this on TV and kind of looking at it like "It's not happening here yet"

It's like folks are watching people in all these different places getting hit by trains, while they themselves are standing on train tracks and not even considering maybe they should get out of the way.

 

[Sinn Fein]

#### just got real in England.  Closing pubs.

 

[shader]

Uh huh.  So they were undocumented positives, but have apparently since recovered?  Means the same in the end, wouldn’t it?  Others have said that we likely have multiple times the current infected amount.

That was an interesting study, but it was also not proof of anything.  The WHO report, which I posted yesterday, and many interviews with people on the ground indicated that there definitely weren't nearly that many people in China that didn't have it.  There's a very good chance that study is wrong.

 

[fantasycurse42]

Put me in the shut #### down completely, absolutely locked down camp... One months time, afterwards, our borders are closed until the rest of the world can get their countries in order.

If this goes on for months and months and months, the economy will collapse completely and a good portion of us will be fired.

It's by far the best option of all the bad options out there. 

 

[Ilov80s]

Most schools are moving to an online format.  Certainly those days will count.

MDE said they do not 

 

[msommer]

#### just got real in England.  Closing pubs.

Don't forget the Premier League. 

 

[Ministry of Pain]

It's like folks are watching people in all these different places getting hit by trains, while they themselves are standing on train tracks and not even considering maybe they should get out of the way.

Exactly

And I want to be clear that I am in no way endorsing or agreeing with every executive order here in Florida, I'm simply stating that what started as a few big name beaches being closed in the bigger cities, it's the whole coast line now and I just cannot believe as a Florida Native that has been thru many many Hurricane Watches, this is the most surreal thing I have seen unfold and happening at a faster pace in the last couple days. 

 

[Godsbrother]

#### just got real in England.  Closing pubs.

What the heck took them so long?

 

[⚡DEADHEAD⚡]

Exactly

And I want to be clear that I am in no way endorsing or agreeing with every executive order here in Florida, I'm simply stating that what started as a few big name beaches being closed in the bigger cities, it's the whole coast line now and I just cannot believe as a Florida Native that has been thru many many Hurricane Watches, this is the most surreal thing I have seen unfold and happening at a faster pace in the last couple days. 

And Florida has been behind in terms of safety-based public policy. State should be locked down, not just the beaches.

 

[Sinn Fein]

What the heck took them so long?

They thought Brexit would save them...

Seriously though - they took a different approach at the start - and are now playing catch-up.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Don't forget the Premier League. 

I am a Spurs fan, I have been trying to forget the Premier League since January...

 

[Ilov80s]

I'm not trying to start an argument in any way but I want to reach out to folks in the MidWest who are watching this on TV and kind of looking at it like "It's not happening here yet"

-Even if you are NOT impacted personally and by that I mean a loved one becomes gravely ill with this thing...you are going to be inconvenienced in ways you had not thought of. I am cringing the closings of the one place I tend to take out my anger, the tennis courts. But why is it fair for me to go play there and the guy who works out in a gym to release his steam, his livelihood has been taken away? Golf courses! When are those going to be closed so the uber rich and a few blue collar types really feel the pinch of all this? Oh and I'm scheduled to play at 7:30AM tomorrow morn with my usual group of 12 guys on 3 courts round robin doubles so it's not like I am going to stop playing, we refuse. 

-I would stock up on anything you didn't think you needed to or else you are going to be one of those folks camping out at the grocery store or wherever at the break of dawn trying to intercept trucks with toilet paper and other things you will feel are essential items with everything closed. You don't have live sports to keep you occupied at home, you might want to think about books, music, anything you can still get on Amazon and have delivered because you are likely going to see sharp changes in your day to day life for some time and there isn't much you can do about it even if you go MOP on everyone which "I/Me" highly suggest you NOT do right now. 

No panic but make use of the time you have before things get crazy in your small town or area. I do think the further you are away form large groups of folks or big cities your chances of getting it are less but it only takes one or two folks coming back from visiting their stuck up Uncle in the big city to spread it to everyone where you are. 

I guess the Midwest is a big place but this post is a week behind Michigan and Ohio. Not sure if it will pay off but we got a big head start on most of the country with shutting #### down.

 

[jplvr]

I am a Spurs fan, I have been trying to forget the Premier League since January...

What took you so long? 

 

[Sinn Fein]

What took you so long? 

Blind hope...

 

[Doug B]

That was an interesting study, but it was also not proof of anything.  The WHO report, which I posted yesterday, and many interviews with people on the ground indicated that there definitely weren't nearly that many people in China that didn't have it.  There's a very good chance that study is wrong.

I could see WHO's China report "overturned" in the future, too, as more is learned. Just really hard to know what the concrete facts are ... so much we can't view or measure, especially backwards in time.

 

[jplvr]

Blind hope...

I lost Tua, Poch, and got Mourinho in about a 6 day period IIRC. I can't remember if that was Tua's first injury or the last one. Rough week.

 

[gianmarco]

What took you so long? 

He didn't specify which year.

 

[Tin Cup]

Is there an authoritative voice of facts somewhere?  Is it Wikipedia?  Is it encyclopedia Britannica?  Where is the book of facts which we get our information from?

Not sure about any of that, but we do have an @Encyclopedia Brownaround these parts.  Might be a good place to start.

 

[Doug B]

Put me in the shut #### down completely, absolutely locked down camp... One months time, afterwards, our borders are closed until the rest of the world can get their countries in order.

If this goes on for months and months and months, the economy will collapse completely and a good portion of us will be fired.

It's by far the best option of all the bad options out there. 

This is exactly what the "Hammer and Dance" blogger is promoting (same link I posted on previous page). Basically, a month of pain vs. 12-18 months of pain.

 

[Doug B]

Most schools are moving to an online format.  Certainly those days will count.

MDE said they do not 

Same in Louisiana, for another data point.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Put me in the shut #### down completely, absolutely locked down camp... One months time, afterwards, our borders are closed until the rest of the world can get their countries in order.

If this goes on for months and months and months, the economy will collapse completely and a good portion of us will be fired.

It's by far the best option of all the bad options out there. 

Yes. We could be a week into this already, but Monday morning quarterbacking doesn’t help. But we can and should be doing this ASAP. We can do our part as individuals to do this now.

Summary of the article: Strong coronavirus measures today should only last a few weeks, there shouldn’t be a big peak of infections afterwards, and it can all be done for a reasonable cost to society, saving millions of lives along the way. If we don’t take these measures, tens of millions will be infected, many will die, along with anybody else that requires intensive care, because the healthcare system will have collapsed.

Well said.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

I guess the Midwest is a big place but this post is a week behind Michigan and Ohio. Not sure if it will pay off but we got a big head start on most of the country with shutting #### down.

The data seems to indicate that it should pay off. Not using any absolutes here. Adding intensive testing, tracing, and self quarantining measures also seem to make a difference. 

 

[Apple Jack]

Arkansas governor just announced closure of gyms, bars and restaurants.  

Little behind the curve.  

Next: lead paint and asbestos!

 

[matttyl]

Put me in the shut #### down completely, absolutely locked down camp... One months time, afterwards, our borders are closed until the rest of the world can get their countries in order.

If this goes on for months and months and months, the economy will collapse completely and a good portion of us will be fired.

It's by far the best option of all the bad options out there. 

Would it be constitutional?

Would people comply?

Would we have anarchy In the streets?

Would it work to stop this (would letting people “out” in a month just mean outbreaks then rather than now)?

 

[[scooter]]

#### just got real in England.  Closing pubs.

What the heck took them so long?

Boris Johnson had this brilliant idea that if they just did nothing at all, then most of the country would simply catch a mild version of the virus and then everyone would be immune and they could all go on living their lives as if nothing happened.

 

[Binky The Doormat]

Next: lead paint and asbestos!

no, snacks are not banned and are still available.