It's best not to compare at all as they're different beasts. As a friend has shared (maybe somewhere in here as well):Well of course, you’d compare it to monthly flu results and not an entire year.
Great post.It's best not to compare at all as they're different beasts. As a friend has shared (maybe somewhere in here as well):
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Good read from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University
“Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this with others who don’t understand.
It has to do with RNA sequencing...i.e. genetics.
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year. You get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
Novel viruses come from animals. The WHO tracks novel viruses in animals (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1, birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once one of these animal viruses mutates and starts to transfer from animals to humans...then it’s a problem. Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity. The RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it, so we can’t fight it off.
Now...sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human. For years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human. Once that happens, we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that’s what decides how contagious, or how deadly, it’s going to be.
H1N1 was deadly, but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. Its RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward.
Now, here comes this Coronavirus. It existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long. But one day, at an animal market in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person. But here is the scary part. In just TWO WEEKS, it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”.
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity), took off like a rocket. And this was because humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs.
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1, or any other type of influenza...this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater. And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain S and strain L...which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him till the Black Plague passed (honestly, I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation.
And let me end by saying...right now it’s hitting older folks harder...but this genome is so slippery, if it mutates again (and it will), who is to say what it will do next.
Gotcha. I thought you were in an art dept.Used to be. Good notebook?
Now at Childrens Museum
Yes, cherry picking is unwise.So deaths in Germany, Japan, S. Korea and Singapore are way down.
I think it's unwise to compare Italy to the USA, maybe just to New York, but it feels like a lot of the media is cherry picking stats that best fit their narrative.
Our company provided us with 20 or so of these which we have no business possessing right now. I just want to know who in the Twin Cities area should get them.And I just want to say, that contemplating was the wrong word choice. Debating may have been better. Contemplating sounds like I was weighing the options of not giving these masks.
Either way, I had to run this up the chain, but looks like Regions Hospital here in St Paul will be getting a healthy does of masks from us come Monday![]()
My wife too, in Central Oregon. So far son and I have made light of it. But still disconcerting.Allergy season kicking in at a bad time here. Sneezing like a mofo.
same.. but more. my 13 year old made some sort of pact with herself. she has refused to set foot outside for 10 days. tomorrow is day 10. weirdo.same. I have gone grocery shopping alone, twice. otherwise 24/7 mom, dad, boy1, boy2. they have gone rollerblading or biking or scootering while we walk. but they have not seen a friend or played with neighbors since last Thursday
Yep. Taking two a day meds right now. Which means even though we have enough stuff to stay hunkered down for a while i will for sure have to go to pharmacy again sometime soon.Allergy season kicking in at a bad time here. Sneezing like a mofo.
I was talking to family about this last week. a lot of folks will be walking around sneezing and hacking away the next two monthsAllergy season kicking in at a bad time here. Sneezing like a mofo.
If we have no natural or acquired immunity and there’s no treatmemt, how are most people recovering?It's best not to compare at all as they're different beasts. As a friend has shared (maybe somewhere in here as well):
--
Good read from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University
“Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this with others who don’t understand.
It has to do with RNA sequencing...i.e. genetics.
Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year. You get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.
Novel viruses come from animals. The WHO tracks novel viruses in animals (sometimes for years watching for mutations). Usually these viruses only transfer from animal to animal (pigs in the case of H1N1, birds in the case of the Spanish flu). But once one of these animal viruses mutates and starts to transfer from animals to humans...then it’s a problem. Why? Because we have no natural or acquired immunity. The RNA sequencing of the genes inside the virus isn’t human, and the human immune system doesn’t recognize it, so we can’t fight it off.
Now...sometimes, the mutation only allows transfer from animal to human. For years it’s only transmission is from an infected animal to a human before it finally mutates so that it can now transfer human to human. Once that happens, we have a new contagion phase. And depending on the fashion of this new mutation, that’s what decides how contagious, or how deadly, it’s going to be.
H1N1 was deadly, but it did not mutate in a way that was as deadly as the Spanish flu. Its RNA was slower to mutate and it attacked its host differently, too.
Fast forward.
Now, here comes this Coronavirus. It existed in animals only, for nobody knows how long. But one day, at an animal market in Wuhan China, in December 2019, it mutated and made the jump from animal to people. At first, only animals could give it to a person. But here is the scary part. In just TWO WEEKS, it mutated again and gained the ability to jump from human to human. Scientists call this quick ability, “slippery”.
This Coronavirus, not being in any form a “human” virus (whereas we would all have some natural or acquired immunity), took off like a rocket. And this was because humans have no known immunity...doctors have no known medicines for it.
And it just so happens that this particular mutated animal virus changed itself in such a way the way that it causes great damage to human lungs.
That’s why Coronavirus is different from seasonal flu, or H1N1, or any other type of influenza...this one is slippery AF. And it’s a lung eater. And, it’s already mutated AGAIN, so that we now have two strains to deal with, strain S and strain L...which makes it twice as hard to develop a vaccine.
We really have no tools in our shed with this. History has shown that fast and immediate closings of public places has helped in the past pandemics. Philadelphia and Baltimore were reluctant to close events in 1918 and they were the hardest hit in the US during the Spanish Flu.
Factoid: Henry VIII stayed in his room and allowed no one near him till the Black Plague passed (honestly, I understand him so much better now). Just like us, he had no tools in his shed, except social isolation.
And let me end by saying...right now it’s hitting older folks harder...but this genome is so slippery, if it mutates again (and it will), who is to say what it will do next.
Good. Too many portions of the country aren’t listening / adhering.DHS issuing "Right to Travel" papers to essential personnel.
Firsthand: Buddy's wife is chemist for lab servicing USDA and got hers today. Another buddy got his from DHS.
Some degree of travel restrictions / lockdown likely imminent.
Damn gurl, are you coronavirus? 'Cause I wanna spend the next three months flattenin' them currrrrves.
Happens every year in PNW in the first warm spell for me. Just checking my temperature in morn and in evening.My wife too, in Central Oregon. So far son and I have made light of it. But still disconcerting.
Have you seen what this does to healthy 40 year oldsLike there’s plenty of viruses we don’t really have natural defenses for and the flu mutates into new strains unseen all the time. And then your body does stuff like run a fever, pushing its cells to near death in a game of chicken with the virus... stuff like that.
you sure you’re not a real doctor?If we have no natural or acquired immunity and there’s no treatmemt, how are most people recovering?
Yup. Before when I sneezed all the time it was just gross. Now if it happens in public people scatter like I just ripped a wet fart.I was talking to family about this last week. a lot of folks will be walking around sneezing and hacking away the next two months
From a brief search:If we have no natural or acquired immunity and there’s no treatment, how are most people recovering?
Also - worldwide flu deaths is 300 - 600k a year. 30K is US only.@DrJ has been correct in almost everything he's said on this page. No reason to attack. No, Covid-19 is not responsible for as many deaths as the flu yet. There's currently under 10,000 reported deaths from the Coronavirus and there were about 34000 flu deaths last year.
We don't know the infection rate or mortality rate, and we can't know them accurately without accurate testing. We can estimate them pretty well, though, using infection rates from other populations and comparing mortality rates. We can use the total number of tests that have been provided, the total number of positive results and the number of deaths to compare numbers. We can predict the growth in positive tests each day and see if the actual growth is greater than the prediction, which suggests that there's more people actually sick than are getting tested, because we aren't testing everyone yet. If we see a higher than expected rate of positive tests, it suggests that people are only getting tested once they're symptomatic. All of these things help our predictions.
IF (big of) the model I've been following holds up (and it has for nearly 2 weeks), we're looking at crossing that 30k in US in mid April.Also - worldwide flu deaths is 300 - 600k a year. 30K is US only.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html
But healthy, young people die from the flu as well... we need some real data before we could truly measure the magnitude of difference.Have you seen what this does to healthy 40 year olds
Good to read this ... my wife worries more than me, and I'd really like to stop wiping down groceries. I want an excuse to do so.People are going overboard. Social distancing, cough and hand hygiene are enough.
Its hard to tell people they wrong to take additional measures, because you can never say with 100% certainty the transmission risk for all activities/exposures. Reminds me of people worrying about toilet seat and mosquito transmission of HIV.
So?Also - worldwide flu deaths is 300 - 600k a year. 30K is US only.
https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html
On top of that, this strain (covid-19) seems to be attacking differently than the other coronavirus strains even. Something about the way it attacks the ACE (respiratory) cells specifically, that has made it worse. I'm trying to go back and find the article where I read that, but I've read probably a hundred in the last week, so not sure if I can find it or not.Not exactly. Most flu strains are slight mutations of known strains. That's why we've been able to quickly come up with a vaccine for the most common strains each year.
That option isn't available with the coronavirus.
No meat? Weird, stood in line at the butcher's today, only 4 peeps allowed in at one time, and got whatever cuts we wanted.My wife mailed 10lbs of rice to a friend in California. Crazy! I guess each state makes a run on different items. We have tons of rice and fish but no meat.
Well it was the grocery store.No meat? Weird, stood in line at the butcher's today, only 4 peeps allowed in at one time, and got whatever cuts we wanted.
100%Curious what people think the percentage that the NFL season happens in 2020?
So should I go top off my gas tank?DHS (and others?) issuing "Right to Travel" papers to essential personnel.
Firsthand: Buddy's wife is chemist for lab servicing USDA and got hers today. Another buddy got his from DHS.
Some degree of travel restrictions / lockdown likely imminent.
Come on!! We can't afford another panic run on TP.Month? In two weeks those who aren’t concerned today are going to be pooping their drawers.
Florida per Worldometer:I’m curious about this. Do you (or does anyone) have the Florida data? Does numbers = tested positive, hospitalizations, deaths, all of the above, or something else?
Makes some sense to me when considering Asian population in CA.My wife mailed 10lbs of rice to a friend in California. Crazy! I guess each state makes a run on different items. We have tons of rice and fish but no meat.
100%Curious what people think the percentage that the NFL season happens in 2020?
I'm against half-measures.One argument against national lockdown - the US is very regional. Maybe every metro/state should have its own flexibility to determine its own measures. Not everywhere is NYC.
I get your beef with one, but in theory Costco runs are to stock up on food and supplies. If they haven't, they really need to implement throttling the crowds somehow though and minimizing the number of people in the store. 0 reason for there to be 100s of people in any store at this point.Here’s the thing...
If we don’t go all in (lockdown)... people will start to challenge the ‘non-essential biz’ definitions. My studios are 1-on-1 personal training. 1 client @ a time. We can sanitize each station between clients. Wear gloves etc. In 2 weeks if we aren’t on full federal mandate lockdown I’m going to be tempted to reopen. We have clients emailing saying they want to come back. It’s difficult to hold back demand when you see crowds at the park and at Costco and your business is 10x safer that that.
####### pisses me off.
Deaths in NY are around 0.7% compared to 8% in Italy. At this point I think it's unwise to compare anywhere to Italy.So deaths in Germany, Japan, S. Korea and Singapore are way down.
I think it's unwise to compare Italy to the USA, maybe just to New York, but it feels like a lot of the media is cherry picking stats that best fit their narrative.
Is that the spreadsheet you shared a week or two ago?IF (big of) the model I've been following holds up (and it has for nearly 2 weeks), we're looking at crossing that 30k in US in mid April.
I honestly don't know how somebody can look at those numbers doubling and be so flippant about it.So has it passed the number of people that died from the flu yet? Or even come close?
To me you either go all in or you don't bother to do it. I lean towards the latter quite obviously. This thing IS spreading around in every state. I mean like my timeline of this - we had our first cases in Illinois in early February and it slowly started climbing a couple here and there. I went to Woodfield Mall late February, it was packed to the gills. There was one person I saw wearing a mask, that was it. And slowly but surely that number has climbed and more and more states got added to the positive list. This thing has been getting passed all over the US for weeks and weeks and weeks now. It's everywhere, to some degree. That's part of where I personally see a high number of carriers already - it's been here, no one was taking any precautions whatsoever, and surely if it spreads like they say it does then a WHOLE bunch of these people have it. You either shut down everywhere, or you aren't going to contain it...One argument against national lockdown - the US is very regional. Maybe every metro/state should have its own flexibility to determine its own measures. Not everywhere is NYC.