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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)

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Ray McKigney said:
Personally, I'd be happy to be treated in the World's Most Famous Emergency Room. Big problem if Oakley tests positive and they send him there to be treated, though. 
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Around 21 hospitals in NYC have closed since 2000. Thankfully the number of ICU beds has held steady - around 3K.

 
bradyfan said:
The U.S. Navy is deploying its two hospital ships to locations on the East and West Coast to help with medical treatments during the COVID-19 outbreak.

But the ships will not be used to treat patients suffering from the new coronavirus, Pentagon officials said, according to CNN.

The USNS Comfort, which has a homeport of Norfolk, Virginia, and the USNS Mercy, which has a homeport of San Diego, could report to New York City and the Seattle area, respectively, to treat other illnesses and free room in standard hospitals to treat coronavirus, CNN reported.

Link
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This is a great idea.  Now let's get the Army to set up field hospitals. 

 
Also hotels might be a better conversion setup than arenas or convention centers. Flights are coming in with less than 5 people on board, I’m sure the vacancy rate is pretty high right now.

 
We have a beautiful park only 3 blocks away. We haven't gone out for a walk yet today but the past few days there has been a lot of activity in them Baseball, basketball, handball, lots of small groups of people. I heard from a neighbor that there was a girls soccer league there yesterday with parents all hanging around watching. They should close all the parks and beaches, immediately excpet for those moving, walking, biking and keeping their distance. Mayor DiBlasio is invisible and an embarrassment. The opposite of Cuomo.

 
bradyfan said:
The U.S. Navy is deploying its two hospital ships to locations on the East and West Coast to help with medical treatments during the COVID-19 outbreak.

But the ships will not be used to treat patients suffering from the new coronavirus, Pentagon officials said, according to CNN.

The USNS Comfort, which has a homeport of Norfolk, Virginia, and the USNS Mercy, which has a homeport of San Diego, could report to New York City and the Seattle area, respectively, to treat other illnesses and free room in standard hospitals to treat coronavirus, CNN reported.

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I think this is still weeks away from actually happening.

 
jamny said:
We have a beautiful park only 3 blocks away. We haven't gone out for a walk yet today but the past few days there has been a lot of activity in them Baseball, basketball, handball, lots of small groups of people. I heard from a neighbor that there was a girls soccer league there yesterday with parents all hanging around watching. They should close all the parks and beaches, immediately excpet for those moving, walking, biking and keeping their distance. Mayor DiBlasio is invisible and an embarrassment. The opposite of Cuomo.
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Yup.

 
bradyfan said:
The U.S. Navy is deploying its two hospital ships to locations on the East and West Coast to help with medical treatments during the COVID-19 outbreak.

But the ships will not be used to treat patients suffering from the new coronavirus, Pentagon officials said, according to CNN.

The USNS Comfort, which has a homeport of Norfolk, Virginia, and the USNS Mercy, which has a homeport of San Diego, could report to New York City and the Seattle area, respectively, to treat other illnesses and free room in standard hospitals to treat coronavirus, CNN reported.

Link
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Sounds backwards to me. Unless they pre-test for covid-19 without error, aren't they just setting up a cruise ship scenario?

 
Otis said:
belljr said:
So what have you guys been doing about teh sex time?  Keeping distance?  Kids too much of an issue?   Asking for a friend
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The what?
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I'm screwed, or rather not :( I work days and my wife nights our usual time was in the morning after the kids went to school. My wife and I are both off today so it might be time to for a shared shower. Other than that I have no problem locking the bedroom door and having a quickie or waiting for the kids to fall asleep.

 
Obviously as Americans we value freedom, smaller government intervention in our lives, and normally that’s fine. It’s who we are.

Now is not normal. We need a hardcore nationwide lockdown enforced by law enforcement and the military. We needed to do this 2 weeks ago. Telling people to socially distance and hoping for individuals to comply didn’t work.

This may sound like it’s emotionally based, but it’s not. This is where we are. I hope the federal government takes the lead and makes this happen. They tried the individual thing, it didn’t work. Too many people don’t understand what’s happening. It’s not their fault, this has never happened before.

 
Got a little irritated this morning when I turned on TVG and saw Swedish harness racing but couldn’t find it on my betting site.

 I’m not gonna make it.

 
Everyone has to assume they have it. Keep your distance. Do not go anywhere near anyone with a compromised immune system or already have health issues. People who have the symptoms are supposed to contact their doctor and get permission to be tested. Again assume you have it. Don't go to the hospital unless you have a respiratory health issue or compromised immune system. Its all the people who do not need to be going to the hospital that are going to delay those who need the help. 

Just stay home and only go out for necessities. 

On a side note, I don't think the supermarket and the other workers who are allowed to stay open are getting enough appreciation. These cashiers and baggers who are usually the younger crowd can not social distance and are touching everything because they have to. I wish they get their recognition. Some chains are already giving them raises.  They are the unsung heroes here.

 
jamny said:
We have a beautiful park only 3 blocks away. We haven't gone out for a walk yet today but the past few days there has been a lot of activity in them Baseball, basketball, handball, lots of small groups of people. I heard from a neighbor that there was a girls soccer league there yesterday with parents all hanging around watching. They should close all the parks and beaches, immediately excpet for those moving, walking, biking and keeping their distance. Mayor DiBlasio is invisible and an embarrassment. The opposite of Cuomo.
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haven’t you heard? we don’t have beaches in NYC.

:lmao:

 
BobbyLayne said:
Also hotels might be a better conversion setup than arenas or convention centers. Flights are coming in with less than 5 people on board, I’m sure the vacancy rate is pretty high right now.
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That is the plan our city has in place. Every room has at least one bed and separate showers and sinks for each room. Send the Covid patients there and hopefully have the hospitals available for the usual needs. The city leaders said several hotels are available as soon as needed.

 
shader said:
Agreed. The economic devastation from a 200 day social distancing policy would be like nothing we’ve ever seen
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And that’s assuming people actually social distance for that length of time, which I’m extremely doubtful of.  So we’ll overwhelm the healthcare system, still have all the deaths of a “worst case scenario” simulation, and destroy the economy.  

 
tri-man 47 said:
Good read from an immunologist at Johns Hopkins University

“Feeling confused as to why Coronavirus is a bigger deal than Seasonal flu? Here it is in a nutshell. I hope this helps. Feel free to share this with others who don’t understand.

It has to do with RNA sequencing...i.e. genetics.

Seasonal flu is an “all human virus”. The DNA/RNA chains that make up the virus are recognized by the human immune system. This means that your body has some immunity to it before it comes around each year. You get immunity two ways...through exposure to a virus, or by getting a flu shot.

Novel viruses come from animals. The WHO tracks novel viruses in animals (sometimes for years watching for mutations). ...
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I have a science or medical question, and I’ll hang up and listen. I understand why novel viruses are so dangerous, I think based on this concept. - However, is covid19 easier to spread or catch than say a standard virus or flu? Slightly different point, and maybe it answers itself. It’s roughly the same strictly in terms of transmission/acquisition, is that correct? TIA.

 
eoMMan said:
Not everyone views this as extreme as you are.  How extreme you are cracks me up.

People can go out for coffee/bagel(s) at a takeout place (or drive thru) and be okay.

Are you wiping down your mailbox door with a clorox wipe?  What about each individual piece of junk mail?

Do you have kids?  Are you monitoring them every time they use the bathroom? Wiping for them?

Ooohh, what about your food items?  Did you wipe down each item before you put it in your fridge?  That Land O Lakes butter you grabbed might have been touched on the outside by another customer with Covid-19.
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Here’s how serious life is where I live. My wife is an RN and checks off every possible box from her working career. ER, ICU, critical care, ventilators, infectious diseases, isolation, etc. 

She works behind a desk now. Somehow it got out that our son went to a friend’s house the other day. Within hours she heard from regional heads of the CDC, NIH, medical directors of area health systems, her company CEO, and the governor that no one in our house should be going out. They all said she is far too valuable to take a chance on her getting sick and she will be in line to be called in when some of the current nurses in the trenches are no longer around to treat patients. 

I have no idea if people need to be wiping down every piece of mail. But when my wife has to start worrying about replacing her friends if they die and having to do it without much left for protective measures, yeah, I am ready to suggest being overly cautious is a better option than not doing anything. 

 
ren hoek said:
https://medium.com/@jasonwbae/want-the-current-covid-19-number-in-u-s-multiple-by-90-b2e8841ab778

Accounting for 12-day delay in reporting and average # of unconfirmed vs. confirmed cases, this Northern Cal doctor projects actual infected around 1.25 million.  
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At what point do we realize this is been in the U.S. for months? As contagious as this is, with people coming and going freely from China to the US in November, December, and January, it's obvious that this would have been running rampant throughout the country all winter. Since no one is attempting to calculate how many people had it and recovered before a single test was run, how accurate can it possibly be to make projections about the number of people we can expect to have it in coming weeks? We should be trying to make accurate assessments but that's simply not possible if we base our math upon the notion that day 1 occurred here in the past few weeks. I saw Cuomo throw out the numbers of 40-80% of all American will get this in the coming months. If you're not factoring in the number of people who had it from November to February, it's simply based on bad math. That's not me faulting Cuomo. He needs people to "get it" when it comes to people doing their part to stop the spread. But the reality is far more people have had this than anyone is calculating.

 
Lot of cognitive distortion in here the last few days. One of the ways that manifests itself is catastrophizing.

Catastrophizing is an irrational thought a lot of us have in believing that something is far worse than it actually is. Catastrophizing can generally can take two different forms: making a catastrophe out of a current situation, and imagining making a catastrophe out of a future situation.

Not calling anyone out. But this article might help someone.

How to put a stop to catastrophic thinking

About 1 in 5 Americans experiences a mental health issue during any given year. IDK if anyone has tried to quantify what that statistic will be in 2020, but I’m guessing it will be closer to 1 in 3 or 1 in 2.

(I’m not referring to major disorders, which is about 1 in 25.)

Anyway, just some food for thought. Stay safe everyone.

 
bradyfan said:
DiBlasio said he needed help to get more ventilators.  God helps those who help themselves.  Now is the time to be creative and think out of the box.

Coronavirus response: Massachusetts enlists of help of life sciences industry to get supplies for emergency personnel; Here’s what they need
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We live just to the north of MA. There are no more masks left for medical professionals. We have volunteers sewing homemade masks out of flannel shirts and sheets to protect the healthcare workers. 

 
Meanwhile, the state has secured a stash of trial drugs that have shown promising results against the contagion, with trials set to start Tuesday.

That includes 70,000 doses of hydroxychloroquine, 10,000 doses of Zithromax and 750,000 doses of chloroquine.
Crossing fingers
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Cowboysfan8 said:
Last I heard at least one of the 2 shops was docked for repairs 

eta: that was early this past week 
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The one in Norfolk.  I don't know the extent of the repairs - its likely that not all would be classified as "Necessary" - but it still take time to get everything back in place, and a crew on board.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
At what point do we realize this is been in the U.S. for months? As contagious as this is, with people coming and going freely from China to the US in November, December, and January, it's obvious that this would have been running rampant throughout the country all winter. Since no one is attempting to calculate how many people had it and recovered before a single test was run, how accurate can it possibly be to make projections about the number of people we can expect to have it in coming weeks? We should be trying to make accurate assessments but that's simply not possible if we base our math upon the notion that day 1 occurred here in the past few weeks. I saw Cuomo throw out the numbers of 40-80% of all American will get this in the coming months. If you're not factoring in the number of people who had it from November to February, it's simply based on bad math. That's not me faulting Cuomo. He needs people to "get it" when it comes to people doing their part to stop the spread. But the reality is far more people have had this than anyone is calculating.
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Agree 100%. Just from the stories coming out of WA, this has probably been in our borders since at least the first week of Jan and maybe earlier. So there may have already been tens of thousands that caught it and recovered, thinking it was just a bad flu or that showed no symptoms at all.

Also China has lied repeatedly about their numbers and when it started. They are not even counting people that test positive but are asymptomatic, which is estimated at 30%+ of all cases. My guess is that if China is reporting 80,000 cases, then the real number is over 800,000. But that number doesn't really matter. We need to know the actual number of hospitilizations and mortality. And we can look to other countries to find accurate data.

 
If people are going to carry on like normal (for whatever reason - possibly the ever-shrinking death rate) it's gloves and masks time. Let's shift the focus to opening everything back up but make gloves and masks mandatory.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I have a science or medical question, and I’ll hang up and listen. I understand why novel viruses are so dangerous, I think based on this concept. - However, is covid19 easier to spread or catch than say a standard virus or flu? Slightly different point, and maybe it answers itself. It’s roughly the same strictly in terms of transmission/acquisition, is that correct? TIA.
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Yes it spreads easier than the flu. Nice summary here: Why Covid-19 is worse than the flu, in one chart

 
Sinn Fein said:
We don't have enough masks for healthcare workers - let alone the public.
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I agree but I think that's where this is headed. Production is being ramped up massively. When the supply starts to get where it needs to be, gloves and masks for all makes a lot more sense than people moving about freely without them. All resources should be poured into supplying the nation with gloves and masks. What we're setting up right now is a double-whammy. People aren't working but they're still out spreading. So we'll have massive unemployment paired with a spread of the virus that's not manageable. It's gloves and mask time the second we have enough of them.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
I have a science or medical question, and I’ll hang up and listen. I understand why novel viruses are so dangerous, I think based on this concept. - However, is covid19 easier to spread or catch than say a standard virus or flu? Slightly different point, and maybe it answers itself. It’s roughly the same strictly in terms of transmission/acquisition, is that correct? TIA.
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It appears to be easier to catch than regular influenza. This is the Ro (basic reproduction) number people keep referring to: it's roughly 1-1.5 for "regular flu", but higher in pandemic flu. SARS-CoV-2 is about 2.5 +/- 1 (dataset is incomplete). That difference is a big deal when you're talking about exponential growth.

Ro refers to the average number of people an infected person will infect; anything greater than 1 promotes continued spread. If Ro can be reduced to less than 1 (by social distancing and other control measures), the infection will eventually die out. 

ETA There is no "standard virus". Ro for the common cold is around 6; for measles it's 14+.

ETA2 Ro can also be used to calculate the proportion of the population needed to be immunized to achieve herd immunity: 1 - 1/Ro

 
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BobbyLayne said:
Lot of cognitive distortion in here the last few days. One of the ways that manifests itself is catastrophizing.

Catastrophizing is an irrational thought a lot of us have in believing that something is far worse than it actually is. Catastrophizing can generally can take two different forms: making a catastrophe out of a current situation, and imagining making a catastrophe out of a future situation.

Not calling anyone out. But this article might help someone.

How to put a stop to catastrophic thinking

About 1 in 5 Americans experiences a mental health issue during any given year. IDK if anyone has tried to quantify what that statistic will be in 2020, but I’m guessing it will be closer to 1 in 3 or 1 in 2.

(I’m not referring to major disorders, which is about 1 in 25.)

Anyway, just some food for thought. Stay safe everyone.
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Thanks for the article. This pandemic is an actual catastrophe though, not just a manifestation of catastrophic thinking. How we deal with that mentally is going to be a challenge, among all the other challenges we face.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
I agree but I think that's where this is headed. Production is being ramped up massively. When the supply starts to get where it needs to be, gloves and masks for all makes a lot more sense than people moving about freely without them. All resources should be poured into supplying the nation with gloves and masks. What we're setting up right now is a double-whammy. People aren't working but they're still out spreading. So we'll have massive unemployment paired with a spread of the virus that's not manageable. It's gloves and mask time the second we have enough of them.
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While some fools are still out spreading, there are clearly substantially lower opportunities for transmission than if everybody was going to work.

 
BobbyLayne said:
Hmmm

Friend of mine is a former model monkey for Goldman Sachs, he’s been doing some charts & sending the link to his colleagues (e.g., it’s restricted or else I would share it.) He’s an I-banker, not an epidemiologist.

He is projecting 100 million cases in the USA by the third week of April. Presumably this does not account for the effects of social distancing, shelter in place, et al.
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That is consistent with the model I've been  using (they actually have 100MM cases by mid April). 

As you said, hopefully measures are working. 

 
Terminalxylem said:
It appears to be easier to catch than regular influenza. This is the Ro number people keep referring to: it's roughly 1-1.5 for "regular flu", but higher in pandemic flu. SARS-CoV-2 is about 2.5 +/- 1 (dataset is incomplete). That difference is a big deal when you're talking about exponential growth.

The R refers to the average number of people an infected person will infect; anything greater than 1 promotes continued spread of infection. 
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And that unfortunately is starting to be missed by those defying the need to stay away from others. They're seeing the notion in their mind confirmed that this isn't as deadly on a rate basis as feared but ignoring how much easier it's spread. If it kills at the same rate as the flu but spreads like wildfire, you can't carry on like it's no big deal.

 
Terminalxylem said:
It appears to be easier to catch than regular influenza. This is the Ro number people keep referring to: it's roughly 1-1.5 for "regular flu", but higher in pandemic flu. SARS-CoV-2 is about 2.5 +/- 1 (dataset is incomplete). That difference is a big deal when you're talking about exponential growth.

The R refers to the average number of people an infected person will infect; anything greater than 1 promotes continued spread of infection. 
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Thank you! Reason I love this place no. 5,481.

 
Apple Jack said:
While some fools are still out spreading, there are clearly substantially lower opportunities for transmission than if everybody was going to work.
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Right but if people are carrying on like normal after only a few days of concerted effort to stop it, how long can we contain even more people from joining them. At some point the focus has to shift from containing people to equipping them. As the number of people who won't stay home grows, we may as well force them to wear gloves and masks rather than have them running around with nothing. All resources should be poured into producing gloves and masks. Too many people aren't taking the stay away directive seriously. And that number will grow each day.

 
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