*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (8 Viewers)

[tamales]

NYC did not do last Monday what Italy did. San Francisco did.

Other than the name there was no difference. 

#keepignoringtheactualNYers

 

[parasaurolophus]

As info I have donated 75% of my masks.

20pk > parents at risk in FL 

2x20pks > Friend who's charge nurse in local hospital that's starting to get hit good. 

I have ~16 remaining. Gf and I each used one recently, then gave two to a buddy who's elderly father is at risk. 
 

Have half face plastic 3M p100 respirators w 6 sets of filters if this is prolonged. 

Is there a reason that hospitals cant use these? 

I can go buy a bunch of full face and filters, right now. The mask isnt cheap, but the filters seem to be. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Does anyone know of a means to calculate r0 from doubling rate? What is it for r3 or r5-ish (like Italy post quarantine)? 

Doubling time of 5-6 days is certainly an improvement but still feels bad if that's "all" an Italian semi-quarantine can do... especially given they're nearly 2 weeks into it.  

I don't think so, because the period of contagiousness and incubation vary from one infection to another. Plus population density/number of exposures per day.

ETA Just an educated guess.

 

[matttyl]

The math is really easy to work out if you assume no impact from the interventions.

Here's a model that tries to account for those.

The 200 days for the X axis is what concerns me the most here.....

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

A report from a pulmonary therapist in New Orleans

 

[tamales]

Monday was too late. What happened at bars and restaurants nationwide on Saturday alone, and especially in NYC, will have unquantifiable but dire consequences. 

I'm not disagreeing with that. Just saying that math dude should move his day 0 to Monday 3/16 if he wants to do his projections. 

 

[DocHolliday]

Freud? I dont know what that means. 

The PPE shortage hit a long time ago. The number of ordinary citizens gobbling up masks at that point was small and did not really affect medical supply, at least not in the way some are portraying it. 

The real shortage was caused because china literally bought back tons of masks that they had shipped to us and no longer shipped them to us. They were getting pallets upon pallets shipped back to them. Some guy stocking supplies in his basement might go clear the shelves at CVS, but then that CVS never got redelivered because the supply line had been cut already. A month ago Lowes had already discontinued them on their website. They were listed, but said not available online and limited quantity in stores. The LDS church sent a whole plane full of them to China back in january. Those would be nice right now. 

Hospitals knew these things were on backorder before anybody else. What did they do? They went to the media and blamed ordinary citizens buying one day supply for a nurse treating this and claimed they were useless and that people didnt know how to put them on. I mean jesus christ. Its a freaking mask with elastic and a metal piece you bend over your nose. 

This was back in February when all those articles started hitting. 

These things arent hard to make if everybody in America wanted them a month ago(which they should but of course thanks medical folks for convincing the bulk of the population they arent helpful or super complicated), hospitals would be flush with them because tons of businesses would already have adjusted to meet demand. Instead they only now are ramping up because the demand is so high from hospitals and states begging for them. 

The squeaky wheel gets the grease. If you want more grease, you dont tell people that their wheel doesnt matter, so they dont need grease and hope you can scoop up the leftovers. 

I mean look at what is happening with hand sanitizer. Distillers all over the country are stepping up and even donating it. A company I used to work for just made 8000 gallons of the stuff to donate and will then start to sell it. They sell isopropyl alcohol for the glass cutting business to some customers that are now shut down. So they can sit on those gallons now or do something with it. 

Why? Because everybody wants it. 

We need to shift US manufacturing over to medical supplies such as gloves, masks and ventilators and testing reagents.   The federal leadership needs to make the tough decisions no matter who or what companies are pissed  off.   

 

[CR69]

Many places, usually through state departments of health.

That's good but not what I'm seeing in my area. My sister in law was told to stay home after someone she works closely with (for a hospital but in their labs) tested positive. My sister in law wasn't tested though and her boyfriend wasn't either. Fun fact, he is still going to work. In a ####### call center...

 

[parasaurolophus]

 pseudo quarantines?     

There are tons of reports out of italy of people still getting together. Same here. 

People are still going to the grocery stores for non essentials and of course the grocery stores are now more crowded. 

Yes. I call it a pseudo quarantine. 

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The 200 days for the X axis is what concerns me the most here.....

Right.  That's only through July(ish).

 

[Terminalxylem]

Do we have any more recent data or evidence discussing the efficacy of treatment drugs like the antimalarial drug and others that have been talked about in the last few days? If we do find therapy drugs that are somewhat effective at treating late stage patients that could make a significant difference on the hospital burdens and need to use ventilators but I’m just not sure if we know if that’s been effective or not.

Clinical trials don't happen overnight. We won't have good data soon enough to make informed decisions, but the drug will likely be used as an act of desperation in some places.

 

[shader]

The 200 days for the X axis is what concerns me the most here.....

Agreed. The economic devastation from a 200 day social distancing policy would be like nothing we’ve ever seen

 

[parasaurolophus]

We need to shift US manufacturing over to medical supplies such as gloves, masks and ventilators and testing reagents.   The federal leadership needs to make the tough decisions no matter who or what companies are pissed  off.   

You think companies would be pissed to manufacture masks if everybody was asking for them? 

I dont. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

What you'd think would be common sense, but the crafty lil ol ladies on Facebook seem to be unaware

A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers

tl;dr

Conclusions

This study is the first RCT of cloth masks, and the results caution against the use of cloth masks. This is an important finding to inform occupational health and safety. Moisture retention, reuse of cloth masks and poor filtration may result in increased risk of infection. Further research is needed to inform the widespread use of cloth masks globally. However, as a precautionary measure, cloth masks should not be recommended for HCWs, particularly in high-risk situations, and guidelines need to be updated.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Nola: 39 years old.

 

[tamales]

Bars and restaurants aren't even the worst issue for NYC. The virus can live on the surfaces inside the trains for up to 72 hours. 

Yep there was nobody on trains and they were disinfecting them 24/7

 

[fruity pebbles]

A report from a pulmonary therapist in New Orleans

Scary stuff

 

[JAA]

DHS (and others?) issuing "Right to Travel" papers to essential personnel. 

Firsthand: Buddy's wife is chemist for lab servicing USDA and got hers today. Another buddy got his from DHS. 

Some degree of travel restrictions / lockdown likely imminent. 

Yea - we have the same paperwork going around as we have been identified as an "Essential Business".  My speculation is that something is coming from a "right to free movement"

 

[Cheese and Crackers]

@pricklypete - where you at?  I am about 15 min NW of Madison in Lodi.   I know last week there was a + at a church in Sun Prairie and there were quickly a handful of +s after that, but I haven't heard any updates since then.  

The bolded is mostly what I encounter around here.  Seems like most think this is a problem for the bigger cities if even that.  Like I have posted in here, about 1/3 of the people I work with in the morning mostly think this is a joke and are actively pissed about the changes we are doing.   

Hello somewhat neighbor!  Jefferson County.  We have 1 confirmed case.  Dane to the west and Waukesha/Milwaukee to the east with decent amount of cases in each.  

I know Lodi and the area from coaching basketball.  We are in very similar towns. I think this whole region has pretty much the same mindset.  At least in the smaller towns.  

Popping out from lurking mode to   from a safe distance in Menomonee Falls.

 

[D-Day]

Bars and restaurants aren't even the worst issue for NYC. The virus can live on the surfaces inside the trains for up to 72 hours. 

That is like some kind of Guinness Book world record for anything living on those trains.

 

[Peyton Marino]

Yep there was nobody on trains and they were disinfecting them 24/7

what's for breakfast today?

 

[JAA]

BREAKING: 21 people incarcerated at Rikers Island have tested positive for #COVID19 — as well as a similar number of staff. Population in infectious disease unit has doubled from 28 to 56 in past 4 days. @NYCMayor response is totally insufficient to full blown crisis

This will not end well

 

[Mr Anonymous]

AOC on CNN chastising Trump for not invoking the Defense Production Act. I guess she and CNN viewers aren't aware of the massive ramping up and re-purposing that  businesses are doing without being forced to. Rather than act in a dictatorial manor as the Act requires, the President asked and companies have responded voluntarily. CNN and AOC would rather go the panic route.

Does CNN even report the stories of the many businesses re-purposing their factories to make ventilators, masks, PPE, etc? And is AOC the best CNN could do this morning to speak on this topic? She of all her years and wisdom? And how does that even fly on their network unless they haven't been telling viewers of the efforts of 3M, the automakers, and many other big businesses doing exactly what the DPA calls for? This isn't Communist China. The info is going to get out. And they wonder why they keep losing viewers.

 

[squistion]

There are tons of reports out of italy of people still getting together. Same here. 

People are still going to the grocery stores for non essentials and of course the grocery stores are now more crowded. 

Yes. I call it a pseudo quarantine. 

Yes the grocery stores are more crowded because people have to eat, that doesn't make this a pseudo quarantine. And are you suggesting banning purchase of non-food or non-medical items and whatever else you deem non-essential (do you want people to present a list to the police before the entering the store)? 

 

[parasaurolophus]

What you'd think would be common sense, but the crafty lil ol ladies on Facebook seem to be unaware

A cluster randomised trial of cloth masks compared with medical masks in healthcare workers

tl;dr

That study didnt compare to "no mask"

I havent seen one person say buying a balaclava or sewing your own frozen 2 mask is better than a surgical mask or a respirator.

 

[Politician Spock]

Yep there was nobody on trains and they were disinfecting them 24/7

Well then.... Enjoy your ride on the empty COVID-19 petri dish. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

Freud? I dont know what that means. 

The PPE shortage hit a long time ago. The number of ordinary citizens gobbling up masks at that point was small and did not really affect medical supply, at least not in the way some are portraying it. 

The real shortage was caused because china literally bought back tons of masks that they had shipped to us and no longer shipped them to us. They were getting pallets upon pallets shipped back to them. Some guy stocking supplies in his basement might go clear the shelves at CVS, but then that CVS never got redelivered because the supply line had been cut already. A month ago Lowes had already discontinued them on their website. They were listed, but said not available online and limited quantity in stores. The LDS church sent a whole plane full of them to China back in january. Those would be nice right now. 

Hospitals knew these things were on backorder before anybody else. What did they do? They went to the media and blamed ordinary citizens buying one day supply for a nurse treating this and claimed they were useless and that people didnt know how to put them on. I mean jesus christ. Its a freaking mask with elastic and a metal piece you bend over your nose. 

This was back in February when all those articles started hitting. 

These things arent hard to make if everybody in America wanted them a month ago(which they should but of course thanks medical folks for convincing the bulk of the population they arent helpful or super complicated), hospitals would be flush with them because tons of businesses would already have adjusted to meet demand. Instead they only now are ramping up because the demand is so high from hospitals and states begging for them. 

The squeaky wheel gets the grease. If you want more grease, you dont tell people that their wheel doesnt matter, so they dont need grease and hope you can scoop up the leftovers. 

I mean look at what is happening with hand sanitizer. Distillers all over the country are stepping up and even donating it. A company I used to work for just made 8000 gallons of the stuff to donate and will then start to sell it. They sell isopropyl alcohol for the glass cutting business to some customers that are now shut down. So they can sit on those gallons now or do something with it. 

Why? Because everybody wants it. 

The post I responded to said something about Id, hence the Freud reference. It was a joke.

I didn’t know all the background info on China and masks. Thanks. But I still don’t think individuals hoarding all the masks from the private market are beyond reproach.

And while I wouldn’t put it past hospital admin doing something weaselly, I’m a little skeptical of the idea they’re scapegoating the public. But I don’t like the “masks don’t work” nonsense either. Fit testing is important, however.

As far as ramping up production to provide masks for everyone, I’m not sure how long that would take. But the sh!t is hitting the fan in hospitals across the country now, and bandanas ain’t the answer.

Hand sanitizer is a luxury. Soap and water are readily available. Masks, not so much.

 

[parasaurolophus]

The post I responded to said something about Id, hence the Freud reference. It was a joke.

I said lds. I should have capitalized and mentioned the church. I just figured you already knew about that plane since it was all over the news.

Eta: if you want to read about some of the clandestine buying of masks by china check out ana swanson's twitter. Although that might take a while because she seems active, but a few days ago she had retweeted several articles about it. 

 

[the moops]

Ex coworker of my wife has this. She was at Disney the day before it got shut down. Flew home the day after with a fever. She called her doctor before and he recommended she fy home because there was better care available here in MN than in FL.

Grrrr

 

[Terminalxylem]

I said lds. I should have capitalized and mentioned the church. I just figured you already knew about that plane since it was all over the news.

Still don’t know exactly what you’re talking about. But I think I get the gist.

 

[mr roboto]

Ex coworker of my wife has this. She was at Disney the day before it got shut down. Flew home the day after with a fever. She called her doctor before and he recommended she fy home because there was better care available here in MN than in FL.

Grrrr

It’s epically stupid #### like this that will make this last way too long. I mean in the next two weeks we are going to see all the cases that were caused by dumb decisions like going to Disney or spring break beach vacations or any other number of large gatherings that people were trying to get their last final enjoyment out of.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

You think companies would be pissed to manufacture masks if everybody was asking for them? 

I dont. 

I’d say it depends on how much money they’re making

 

[Capella]

Hmmm

Friend of mine is a former model monkey for Goldman Sachs, he’s been doing some charts & sending the link to his colleagues (e.g., it’s restricted or else I would share it.) He’s an I-banker, not an epidemiologist.

He is projecting 100 million cases in the USA by the third week of April. Presumably this does not account for the effects of social distancing, shelter in place, et al.

Total waste of time then. 

 

[Politician Spock]

Ex coworker of my wife has this. She was at Disney the day before it got shut down. Flew home the day after with a fever. She called her doctor before and he recommended she fy home because there was better care available here in MN than in FL.

Grrrr

Every passenger, crew and pilot on that place should sue her and her doctor for damages. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

That study didnt compare to "no mask"

I havent seen one person say buying a balaclava or sewing your own frozen 2 mask is better than a surgical mask or a respirator.

97% pass-through rate. That's essentially "no mask" but I'll remove the post if it offends anyone. Just thought it was interesting info. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

Still don’t know exactly what you’re talking about. But I think I get the gist.

latter day saints. (lds)

Question for you...It is my understand that a p95 filter is better than an N95. Am I correct? Any reason a nurse wouldnt be able to wear a p95?

ETA: I ask because we know a nurse that put a call out to her friends for masks and I don't want to give her something that she cant use. 

 

[Politician Spock]

It is not optimal but never too late.

This is not true at all. There was a point where it became too late to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. 

 

[otb_lifer]

Every passenger, crew and pilot on that place should sue her and her doctor for damages. 

... and this (litigious backlog) is gonna be the epilogue of this scourge 

 

[MAC_32]

It is not optimal but never too late.

Too late as identified by a healthcare system that can no longer support its patients. NYC may not be there quite yet, but barring something unforeseen they will. 

 

[ffjunk]

latter day saints. (lds)

Question for you...It is my understand that a p95 filter is better than an N95. Am I correct? Any reason a nurse wouldnt be able to wear a p95?

They need to be fitted. But anything is better than nothing.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

This is not true at all. There was a point where it became too late to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. 

Doing everything we should be doing TODAY hastens the end of NYC hospitals being overwhelmed.  And there are many places in the country where hospitals don't have to get to that point.

 

[JaxBill]

Ex coworker of my wife has this. She was at Disney the day before it got shut down. Flew home the day after with a fever. She called her doctor before and he recommended she fy home because there was better care available here in MN than in FL.

Grrrr

So much for "First, do no harm"

 

[mr roboto]

If we ever get at home testing to scale in the next month or so is it conceivable that people could take a test, and have some sort of ID given to them if it comes back negative and we could actually know that if a person is healthy they are allowed in certain businesses or certain areas? I feel like at some point either everybody’s going to become infected and most will recover but that will take months and months or we need to re-open certain segments of our economy hopefully with the knowledge that people who are shopping or healthy but I just don’t know how we do that.

 

[Terminalxylem]

latter day saints. (lds)

Question for you...It is my understand that a p95 filter is better than an N95. Am I correct? Any reason a nurse wouldnt be able to wear a p95?

ETA: I ask because we know a nurse that put a call out to her friends for masks and I don't want to give her something that she cant use. 

That’s funny. When you said you should have capitalized, I thought you meant IDs, not LDS.

I think the P vs. N refers to petroleum vs. non-petroleum based droplets. No idea how P masks would function in a medical setting, but I’ll take one over a ####### bandana any day.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Publix gave many if not all of their management teams which is anything from a Grocery Team Leader and up what amounts to a 20% RAISE. They are making entry level teacher's pay now. 

-Wal-Mart is giving $300-$500 sign on bonuses and I can name a half dozen other big retailers and grocery stores that are about to go on a mass hiring phase. If you know anyone that was working their tails off waiting tables or standing on their feet all day I would highly recommend they check into their local grocery store, they might be hired on the spot. 

-They need bodies in these stores working ATC to get them functioning. They need an entire overnight to re-stock, there aren't enough hours to do it the way they are presently staffed. 

-Publix as an example is setting records every day right now. They are averaging over $150,000 in sales per store per day and that's on a slow day. When they can actually get product on the shelves that is high demand it's upwards of $250k and they have Publix stacked on top of each other everywhere down here in South Florida.

-Earth Fare picked the wrong month to go out of business, they would have made a fortune at least emptying their inventory. 

 

[Peyton Marino]

If we ever get at home testing to scale in the next month or so is it conceivable that people could take a test, and have some sort of ID given to them if it comes back negative and we could actually know that if a person is healthy they are allowed in certain businesses or certain areas? I feel like at some point either everybody’s going to become infected and most will recover but that will take months and months or we need to re-open certain segments of our economy hopefully with the knowledge that people who are shopping or healthy but I just don’t know how we do that.

Intuitively this feels like our quickest and most likely chance to some return to normalcy in the near term... but I have no idea if its feasible or not.

 

[JAA]

I understand that but even if we jump to an ungodly 3% that's still not in the same stratosphere as italy. 

Stop with this please.

Do you know how many Americans die if we have a 3% mortality rate?  Do the math please.  Start with a 30% infected population, then go to 50% and then 70%.

 

[parasaurolophus]

That’s funny. When you said you should have capitalized, I thought you meant IDs, not LDS.

I think the P vs. N refers to petroleum vs. non-petroleum based droplets. No idea how P masks would function in a medical setting, but I’ll take one over a ####### bandana any day.

Just did some reading and the P95 is definitely better. They cost like 6 times as much too, which makes sense. It handles everything the N95 handles and in addition is resistant to oil particles. It also has a longer service life rating (40 hours compared to 8 hours).

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Ex coworker of my wife has this. She was at Disney the day before it got shut down. Flew home the day after with a fever. She called her doctor before and he recommended she fy home because there was better care available here in MN than in FL.

Grrrr

This honestly makes me angry.

 

[Terminalxylem]

Just did some reading and the P95 is definitely better. They cost like 6 times as much too, which makes sense. It handles everything the N95 handles and in addition is resistant to oil particles. It also has a longer service life rating (40 hours compared to 8 hours).

Looks like it. Any FBG have extras for sale?