*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (10 Viewers)

[Grace Under Pressure]

I'm not harping on your post at all. So none of this is a crit on what you said, just joining the convo down thread. Really should've quoted the post with the article. Sorry.

I'm on board with the "we can do this". I actually believe the free market can do a lot to solve and mitigate this situation. I just question if our gov is up for the task, especially to take a lead role. They can't even figure out how to get $1200 into people's bank accounts in a timely manner and we already have a massive electronic transfer infrastructure and the IRS in place. CDC botched testing, etc., etc.

I do like ideas like the Kinsa Health Weather Map. Something like that could be open sourced, have a larger install base and was tweaked to better represent indications of this and other viruses. I like it. I just don't understand articles like the Vox article talking about what needs to be done next in phase 2 to re-start the economy. How does any of that  happen before a vaccine or treatment can be developed? QR codes on every building? Who is building this app? How does some old lady who can't work a microwave download it? Homeless people? Seems like a massive lift when there are simpler things we can do right now to start climbing out of our caves and still protect ourselves and our families as we acclimate to this new world.

The plans in the the Vox piece can't be phase 2. It's just not going to happen that fast. Maybe we get there in 3, 5, 10 years, but we need short term ideas that will actually help slowing integrating into some sort of normalcy post curve flattening. Cranking out hand sanitizer, Clorox wipes  and N95 masks seems like a perfectly fine start. I can't buy any of these currently. Athletic appeal companies could start designing "virus protective clothing", Nike virus glasses, UA CV masks, I don't know. There are relatively easy things to that can be done now or tomorrow to allow us to enter into this new world and live smarter and safer. Yes, this virus is a killer and spreads. A N95 mask costs $3.50 retail and blocks 99% of particles. I get that frontline workers need them now, but at some point expanding production seems like a much easier next step and creating an app, GPS tracking system and some sort of enforcement system.

Got it, and my response was more toward the article as well, as the piece was basically like "that's not going to happen".

The ideas you've posted here are thoughtful and I agree with them. Masks, clothing, Clorox wipes, social distancing when out in public, all good and living smarter is going to need to happen. I also like the Kinsa map and check it pretty frequently.

 

[jamny]

Not so sure we have accomplished not crashing the healthcare system quite yet. It depends where people live. Some places may still be early in the timeline, so it may look like they only have a few cases but two weeks from now those places could see an explosion. So this month the problem areas are NYC, NO,  CHI, DET, ATL, BOS but next month it could be DC, PHI, HOU, DEN, and LV. 

And for places that are reaching the peak soon, the burnout rate for healthcare professionals will be very high as they won’t be willing to deal with a second wave of more chaos. 

I think we're probably a month away from getting a clear picture. I just think we can begin to discuss opening up. For me, that's at least a positive.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Not so sure we have accomplished not crashing the healthcare system quite yet. It depends where people live. Some places may still be early in the timeline, so it may look like they only have a few cases but two weeks from now those places could see an explosion. So this month the problem areas are NYC, NO,  CHI, DET, ATL, BOS but next month it could be DC, PHI, HOU, DEN, and LV. 

And for places that are reaching the peak soon, the burnout rate for healthcare professionals will be very high as they won’t be willing to deal with a second wave of more chaos. 

Those are good points. Nurses I know in the middle of it are hanging on by a thread as is. Several are planning on exiting the profession when this is over, several more have already left. It’s not usually about them, it’s about the lack of having the resources to feel safe doing their job and the fear of bringing this home to their families. Many have immune compromised people at home or older relatives they see on a regular basis. They are basically having to choose between doing their job and risking their families. Most are hanging in there because they are troopers and this is what they do but I fear a huge nursing shortage when this is over. 

 

[the moops]

 I just think we can begin to discuss opening up. For me, that's at least a positive.

I feel the opposite. I think we need to tell ourselves that we arw closed for a couple months until we get a grasp on testing and treatments and whatever. Only then should we have the initial conversations about opening things up. Seems way to premature and is going to get people's hopes up way too early if we start discussing it now

 

[Statorama]

Can you share that original model?  All the ones I have seen show those numbers with no NPI in place.

Thanks for making me dig into this a little deeper.  There's 10 sites that say one thing and 10 sites that say another.

I found this one that really cleared up the confusion about the Ferguson model, and it's pretty clear Ferguson meant 2.2M if we did nothing at all.

Nice catch!  

 

[shader]

Thanks for making me dig into this a little deeper.  There's 10 sites that say one thing and 10 sites that say another.

I found this one that really cleared up the confusion about the Ferguson model, and it's pretty clear Ferguson meant 2.2M if we did nothing at all.

Nice catch!  

Yes clearly that’s a huge difference 

 

[lakerstan]

so after all this coronavirus is gone and we are back to normal. What do you think will happen with Hand shakes?

I don't even like looking at people these days.

 

[Statorama]

So if Germany tested at the same rate as the US they would have similar numbers?

That's a different discussion with different variables.  Even then it would only be a guess.

If we're given the parameters of:

US tests 100 people and 30 are positive

Germany tests 20 people and 2 are positive

Then a simple exercise would say no, they would not have similar numbers.  

 

[top dog]

I think it will cause some minor social problems. Some people will still prefer to not shake hands. Others will get offended when people refuse to shake hands. 

I hated hand shakes before all this.  And working in a professional environment where we see vendors and what not it was the norm.  I always hated that one dude you would find every so often with a sweaty hand.  Like, WTF is your hand sweaty??

I'm not going back to hand shaking for a LONG TIME.  

 

[Navin Johnson]

That's a different discussion with different variables.  Even then it would only be a guess.

If we're given the parameters of:

US tests 100 people and 30 are positive

Germany tests 20 people and 2 are positive

Then a simple exercise would say no, they would not have similar numbers.  

Why 100 and 20?  Why not 100 and 100?  Agree there are many variables in play here but you guys seem to be putting most of the weight on the number tested when that clearly shouldn't be the case

 

[fruity pebbles]

I hated hand shakes before all this.  And working in a professional environment where we see vendors and what not it was the norm.  I always hated that one dude you would find every so often with a sweaty hand.  Like, WTF is your hand sweaty??

I'm not going back to hand shaking for a LONG TIME.  

Always hated them as well. Guy prolly just took a dump and didn’t wash his hands. 

 

[Politician Spock]

I hated hand shakes before all this.  And working in a professional environment where we see vendors and what not it was the norm.  I always hated that one dude you would find every so often with a sweaty hand.  Like, WTF is your hand sweaty??

I'm not going back to hand shaking for a LONG TIME.  

I used to be one of those vendors. Left that career 4 years ago. For numerous other reasons, but so glad not to be in a hand shaking career anymore. 

 

[top dog]

I don't even like looking at people these days.

When I go to the grocery store and someone gets to close to me my first instinct is to look away towards the ground.  I'm not sure why that is, but I caught myself doing that yesterday.  Like looking at the ground will somehow prevent the spread.  

 

[eoMMan]

I feel the opposite. I think we need to tell ourselves that we arw closed for a couple months until we get a grasp on testing and treatments and whatever. Only then should we have the initial conversations about opening things up. Seems way to premature and is going to get people's hopes up way too early if we start discussing it now

People need to see that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. 

Not saying it should be a full blown open everything in a few weeks, but if you tell everyone that we are staying shut down for another couple months....I think there will be many negative consequences. 

If a couple months is your goal, much better giving it to the public in piecemeal. 

 

[lakerstan]

That's a different discussion with different variables.  Even then it would only be a guess.

If we're given the parameters of:

US tests 100 people and 30 are positive

Germany tests 20 people and 2 are positive

Then a simple exercise would say no, they would not have similar numbers.  

Another way to look at it:

US - 4.5% of world's population, 29% of cases, 17% of deaths.  The death to population ratio is 3.777:1.  New York is a huge part of this.

Germany - 1% of world's population, 7% of cases, 2.7% of deaths.  The death to population ratio is 2.7:1

ETA: This is all based on the statistics we have.  We've all heard stories that all deaths aren't being captured.

 

[glvsav37]

so after all this coronavirus is gone and we are back to normal. What do you think will happen with Hand shakes?

I dont get the whole no handshake thing. I think its silly to think that is the thing that would help all of this go away. 

I can go to a meeting and not shake your hand...but if just before the meeting you sneezed and coughed all over the table and presentation materials you hand out, isn't that worse then shaking your hand? Its not like I've ever shook someone's hand then started licking on my own fingers (unless maybe it was a supermodel's hand I was shaking lol). We see all these models about the virus moving through the air, hoping over supermarket shelves 2 isles over, walking through some virus cloud of the person running in front of us.....and they are making a handshake our anti-doomsday solution? 

The more I listen to people, the more I think there is a whacked social experiment component to this to see exactly how far we can be pushed to comply. Trust me, I've been holed up at home since the beginning and have not been outside my yard in over a month. So I get that this is bad, but moving forward, I think we need to bring some social norms back. 

 

[Politician Spock]

I dont get the whole no handshake thing. I think its silly to think that is the thing that would help all of this go away. 

I can go to a meeting and not shake your hand...but if just before the meeting you sneezed and coughed all over the table and presentation materials you hand out, isn't that worse then shaking your hand? Its not like I've ever shook someone's hand then stated sucking on my fingers (unless maybe it was a supermodel's hand I was shaking lol). We see all these models about the virus moving through the air, hoping over supermarket shelves 2 isles over, walking through some virus cloud of the person running in front of us.....and they are making a handshake our anti-doomsday solution? 

The more I listen to people, the more I think there is a whacked social experiment component to this to see exactly how far we can be pushed to comply. Trust me, I've been holed up at home since the beginning and have not been outside my yard in over a month. So I get that this is bad, but moving forward, I think we need to bring some social norms back. 

Instead of shaking my hand, you can grab my butt. It's very unlikely anything from my coughing or sneezing ended up on it. 

 

[top dog]

I used to be one of those vendors. Left that career 4 years ago. For numerous other reasons, but so glad not to be in a hand shaking career anymore. 

At the beginning of March we had a guy come from one of our other facilities that  haven't seen in 10 years.  When he saw me he got excited and ran over and shook my hand.  After that greeting I backed up and immediately pulled out the sanitizer in my pocket. "No offense buddy, but everyone knows I'm a germaphob.   "  Everyone in the sales office laughed because they know how I am and that I had been talking to everyone about this "Coronoavirus" that was coming.  

They seem to be laughing less nowadays... 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

I dont get the whole no handshake thing. I think its silly to think that is the thing that would help all of this go away. 

I can go to a meeting and not shake your hand...but if just before the meeting you sneezed and coughed all over the table and presentation materials you hand out, isn't that worse then shaking your hand? Its not like I've ever shook someone's hand then started licking on my own fingers (unless maybe it was a supermodel's hand I was shaking lol). We see all these models about the virus moving through the air, hoping over supermarket shelves 2 isles over, walking through some virus cloud of the person running in front of us.....and they are making a handshake our anti-doomsday solution? 

The more I listen to people, the more I think there is a whacked social experiment component to this to see exactly how far we can be pushed to comply. Trust me, I've been holed up at home since the beginning and have not been outside my yard in over a month. So I get that this is bad, but moving forward, I think we need to bring some social norms back. 

Again, this comes back to the discipline of not touching one's face with unwashed/unsanitized hands. In the past after a meeting etc where handshakes were exchanged, I either went directly to the restroom to wash my hands or use the hand sanitizer in my office. Not because I'm a germaphobe, but because I have seen/heard way too many people come in and out of the restroom without visiting the handwashing station. 

 

[Clayton Gray]

Not trying to be political, but this is capitalism as we have allowed it to grow and morph.  Capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good.

At risk of clarifying what I'm sure you meant, let's be a bit clearer:

Unfettered capitalism serves both the shareholders AND the common good...EXCEPT when those two come into conflict, then it serves the shareholders at the EXPENSE OF the common good.

or to put it more simply:

Capitalism (with proper guardrails) serves the common good.

The devil in the details is what guardrails need to be put in place and when.  That's what needs to be discussed and debated.  And lest anyone think I am arguing in favor of re-opening the country before cases are near zero and aggressive contact tracing is in place, I am certainly not.  

I just think we need to be clearer with our language and as such, I don't think a statement such as "capitalism serves the shareholders, not the common good" is very helpful.

Thanks for the reply.

I agree that capitalism could work for the common good if guardrails where in place.  Unfortunately, they are not nor do I believe most people understand why they should want them.

Example 1:  Capitalism currently servers the shareholders.  Shareholders used to be long-term minded investors who wanted to be a part in the growth of companies.  The growth of companies used to be driven through hiring people and growing a localized workforce.  That served the common good.  Today, shareholders are driven by microsecond deviations of 1/8th percentage points.  If their point drops, they sell millions upon millions of shares of companies that employ people.  People cannot respond to this level of change.  Also, IIRC 70% of all stock is not owned by individuals.  Think about that.

Example 2:  We as a people want and expect our citizens to have a savings account and plan for "when things get tough".  While the vast majority of Americans dont have these savings, if they lose their job or have an unexpected cost they could lose their house, car, everything.  They may need to declare bankruptcy, get their future wages garnished, stay with family/friends until its all recovered from.  Now - look at corporations.  Our stock market drops like 20-30% in 1 month, just 1 month, and now all corporations need to layoff millions of workers.  We have the largest unemployment numbers in like forever.  Why is it we expect our citizens to have "savings accounts for tough times", but we dont expect our corporations to have the same protections?  Where is the corporations plans?  Why did they not prepare for hardship or the unexpected expense?  Where was this future planning when things were good?  Why is it we privatize profits for our corporations and shareholders, but we socialize losses for the same corporations through bailouts which as we all well know will ultimately will be paid by citizens taxes?  Why is this way?  Why is it when things are good execs and shareholders are rewarded (remember, shareholders are for the most part not people) but when things are bad, the citizens need to pay for it?

Once you understand the system and how is is organized, its easy to see, plainly easy IMO, that it does not benefit the common good.

None of what I have said above is political.

Let's keep the discussion here to COVID-19. Thanks, guys.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

People need to see that there is a light at the end of the tunnel. 

Not saying it should be a full blown open everything in a few weeks, but if you tell everyone that we are staying shut down for another couple months....I think there will be many negative consequences. 

If a couple months is your goal, much better giving it to the public in piecemeal. 

The earlier conversations start happening, the more ideas can get flushed out and agreed upon. And I'm firmly in the camp of extreme social distancing until May 31st at a minimum. The IHME model that the task force seems to be following closely clearly says "Assuming full social distancing through May 2020" at the top in bold. In the meantime we should be planning how a slow, partial lifting looks. Reverse opening the things that closed down in two week increments, for example. Mandatory masks, crowd limits, and required sanitization practices as well. 

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I feel the opposite. I think we need to tell ourselves that we arw closed for a couple months until we get a grasp on testing and treatments and whatever. Only then should we have the initial conversations about opening things up. Seems way to premature and is going to get people's hopes up way too early if we start discussing it now

I agree.  Testing needs to be ubiquitous before we can seriously consider going back to business as usual.  The good news at least is that there's no inherent reason why testing shouldn't be widespread within a couple of months, so we're at least not that far off from being able to make an intelligent determination about what our options are.  

 

[Pipes]

I agree.  Testing needs to be ubiquitous before we can seriously consider going back to business as usual.  The good news at least is that there's no inherent reason why testing shouldn't be widespread within a couple of months, so we're at least not that far off from being able to make an intelligent determination about what our options are.  

There's a big gap though between initial conversations about opening things up to business as usual.  I think we may be close to the conversations but a heck of a long ways from the later.

 

[Doug B]

The early Ferguson model had 2.2 million US deaths with full lockdown / social distancing / hygiene factored in.   He's since revised that model.

Special report: The simulations driving the world’s response to COVID-19 (Nature, 4/2/2020)

[Neil] Ferguson is one of the highest-profile faces in the effort to use mathematical models that predict the spread of the virus — and that show how government actions could alter the course of the outbreak. “It’s been an immensely intensive and exhausting few months,” says Ferguson, who kept working throughout his relatively mild symptoms of COVID-19. “I haven’t really had a day off since mid-January.”

Research does not get much more policy-relevant than this. When updated data in the Imperial team’s model1 indicated that the United Kingdom’s health service would soon be overwhelmed with severe cases of COVID-19, and might face more than 500,000 deaths if the government took no action, Prime Minister Boris Johnson almost immediately announced stringent new restrictions on people’s movements. The same model suggested that, with no action, the United States might face 2.2 million deaths; it was shared with the White House and new guidance on social distancing quickly followed.

 

[ericttspikes]

I'm a history buff and I've been reading about what life was like in 1918-1919 during the "America's Forgotten Pandemic". Not only were we in a World War, but then this thing hit too. A majority of our trained medical workers were overseas leaving med students and volunteers to tend to the sick here. Talk about an over stretched system. Just crazy

They did things that worked that we are doing now; social distancing, shut things down like schools and movie theaters, wore masks, etc. Some things were vastly different; sanitary conditions were awful. No medical equipment like ventilators. They were doing "treatments" like blood letting and overdosing people with aspirin. They didn't even know what the "Spanish Flu" was because they didn't have microscopes powerful enough to see it and spent almost a year thinking it was caused by a bacteria and focused on treatments for that. It was a straight up killer.

Despite all of that, they got through it. The tremendous loss of life was no doubt largely caused by the conditions of the time, lack of treatments and poor medical care. Here we are 100 years later. Maybe I'm in the minority, but despite the fear and unknown, I'm optimistic. I have to be. What would it say about us if we can't beat this? Was that generation just a better version of us? Despite all the advances we have in medicine, hygiene, communication, sanitation, chemicals, PPE we can't do better than they did? Thank God we're not in a World War also.

The Spanish Flu had 3 waves. The second was the biggest killer and was a deadlier mutation of the first. My understanding that CV is different in that respect and is more stable. Not sure if true or not. October 1918 was the deadliest month of the pandemic, on Jan.1, 1918 Mare Island Marines played the Great Lakes Navy in the Rose Bowl in what was mostly a celebration of winning the war. As time passed, the Spanish Flu was a footnote in history. Perhaps overshadowed by the war. In 1924, the Encyclopedia Britannica didn't even mention the pandemic in its review of the "most eventful years" of the 20th century. Despite the different time and a different pandemic, reading how a different generation got up and forged ahead through a much darker time gives me hope for us as well.

 

[guru_007]

I agree.  Testing needs to be ubiquitous before we can seriously consider going back to business as usual.  The good news at least is that there's no inherent reason why testing shouldn't be widespread within a couple of months, so we're at least not that far off from being able to make an intelligent determination about what our options are.  

I certainly agree that we need widespread testing available (and am optimistic we are weeks away rather than months), I am also a pragmatist and understand that the country needs to be opened up and talked about opening up as soon as possible - much before we can test every single human.  I know it's probably going to be an unpopular opinion here but there is a massive financial burden that is being placed on everyone and the economy needs to get back into play.

An interesting read here https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-07/michael-burry-slams-virus-lockdowns-in-controversial-tweetstorm 

Not sure if it was posted previously and discussed, but the strain is real.  1/3 of American's didn't pay rent last month.  20% could be unemployed by this month.  I'd estimated 2/3 - 3/4's of people will not be paying this month.  Everyone is relying heavily on the government, but even the government is overwhelmed here.  There is a domino effect when you are making money out of thin air.  People complaining that they aren't getting their stimulus checks yet or extra $600 in unemployment yet - it takes time to put the wheels in motion.  And where the money comes from, who knows?

I am hoping the country can start rolling out in stages starting in May.  But until there is a vaccine, we are honestly going to have to deal with this virus the best way we can.  Masks, washing hands, staying apart, etc... will certainly deter massive hot spots.  A treatment could be forthcoming by mid-summer.  Vaccine isn't going to happen until next year at the earliest though.  I know everyone is concerned, and some panicked, but so long as the medical system isn't overwhelmed, I think we can't wait too long that is going to be worse than the virus itself.  People just think we can sit around and do nothing for 3-4 months and jobs will be there waiting for them.  Liquidity issues are massive and the fed can't cure them forever.  It just isn't going to happen.

 

[TLEF316]

The lack of a timeframe/light at the end of the tunnel is just the absolute killer here.

Its been nearly a month and I'm pretty stir crazy. Can't imagine how its gonna be if we're still in a holding pattern with bad/incomplete information in freaking June.

 

[beer 30]

I feel the opposite. I think we need to tell ourselves that we arw closed for a couple months until we get a grasp on testing and treatments and whatever. Only then should we have the initial conversations about opening things up. Seems way to premature and is going to get people's hopes up way too early if we start discussing it now

As a whole, no way we stay closed down for months. Ask me that question a week ago and I would have been on board but after this week, just don't see it happening. There are hotspots that we need to address and will continue for a while but from what I'm seeing, within reason, there will be a lot of people heading back to work by May 1 and probably sooner. I think the bigger cities are going to continue to have issues but outside of there, I don't see us continuing with a shutdown.

Yesterday was a milestone day (aside from me almost forgetting it was my anniversary  ) a lot of large Army Corp projects came to a screeching halt across the country, OH, MI, FL. That takes a lot of pull to turn off the Army faucet. Coupled with the press conferences yesterday continuing to point toward smaller numbers across the board and the conference call my company had with our doc, the steam has left the sails.

If we manage the hotspots, continuing to exercise good hygiene & appropriate social distancing, no reason to think we can't start heading back to a new normal.

 

[beer 30]

I am hoping the country can start rolling out in stages starting in May.  But until there is a vaccine, we are honestly going to have to deal with this virus the best way we can.  Masks, washing hands, staying apart, etc... will certainly deter massive hot spots.  A treatment could be forthcoming by mid-summer.  Vaccine isn't going to happen until next year at the earliest though.  I know everyone is concerned, and some panicked, but so long as the medical system isn't overwhelmed, I think we can't wait too long that is going to be worse than the virus itself.  People just think we can sit around and do nothing for 3-4 months and jobs will be there waiting for them.  Liquidity issues are massive and the fed can't cure them forever.  It just isn't going to happen.

Agree. I think any large venue events are on hold until we roll out a vaccine so large college/pro sporting events, concerts, festivals, etc should be a no go. Sports teams can still play just can't have the crowd.

 

[Big League Chew]

Instead of shaking my hand, you can grab my butt. It's very unlikely anything from my coughing or sneezing ended up on it. 

ever heard of the fanny cough competition ?

 

[beer 30]

You could probably pick up a 5,000 person cruise ship pretty cheap soon.

CDC Extends ‘No Sail Order’ for All Cruise Ships by At Least 100 Days

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/cdc-s-no-sail-order-for-cruise-ships-extended-by-100-more-days

 

[Doug B]

We see all these models about the virus moving through the air, hoping over supermarket shelves 2 isles over, walking through some virus cloud of the person running in front of us.....and they are making a handshake our anti-doomsday solution? 

Don't buy into any of this yet -- aerosols haven't even been shown to carry "live", whole viruses.

 

[NotSmart]

For now they are...

The other fallout from this is going to be a refocusing of sourcing from America. I don't think there is any doubt folks will be more than willing to spend an extra $1, $20, $100 depending on what you are buying if has a Made In America sticker on it. Including your oranges & bananas. 

A few weeks ago we signed up with a local farm for veggie/milk/egg delivery direct to our door once a week.

It is a premium cost, but 100% worth it right now to keep me from having to go into a grocery store.

I strongly suspect we'll end up keeping it even after the new normal starts settling in.

 

[Big League Chew]

You could probably pick up a 5,000 person cruise ship pretty cheap soon.

CDC Extends ‘No Sail Order’ for All Cruise Ships by At Least 100 Days

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/cdc-s-no-sail-order-for-cruise-ships-extended-by-100-more-days

Why buy a yacht when you can have a cruise ship! Baller status 2020

 

[[scooter]]

Here's what a serious, nation-wide response to COVID looks like.

This article is a must-read.

"In different ways, all these plans say the same thing: Even if you can imagine the herculean political, social, and economic changes necessary to manage our way through this crisis effectively, there is no normal for the foreseeable future. Until there’s a vaccine, the US either needs economically ruinous levels of social distancing, a digital surveillance state of shocking size and scope, or a mass testing apparatus of even more shocking size and intrusiveness."

 

[NotSmart]

Those are good points. Nurses I know in the middle of it are hanging on by a thread as is. Several are planning on exiting the profession when this is over, several more have already left. It’s not usually about them, it’s about the lack of having the resources to feel safe doing their job and the fear of bringing this home to their families. Many have immune compromised people at home or older relatives they see on a regular basis. They are basically having to choose between doing their job and risking their families. Most are hanging in there because they are troopers and this is what they do but I fear a huge nursing shortage when this is over. 

My sister knows 2 nurses who have already quit.

I honestly can't blame them... if our government can't provide basic safety in the form of PPE to front line medical workers during a pandemic, I don't see why those workers could be expected to put their lives on the line when their lives clearly weren't valued.

 

[pollardsvision]

You could probably pick up a 5,000 person cruise ship pretty cheap soon.

CDC Extends ‘No Sail Order’ for All Cruise Ships by At Least 100 Days

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-10/cdc-s-no-sail-order-for-cruise-ships-extended-by-100-more-days

Cruise bookings for 2021 are actually pretty strong.

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/492047-more-people-are-booking-cruises-for-2021-compared-to-2019-despite

 

[Joe Bryant]

Thanks for the reply.

I agree that capitalism could work for the common good if guardrails where in place.  Unfortunately, they are not nor do I believe most people understand why they should want them.

Example 1:  Capitalism currently servers the shareholders.  Shareholders used to be long-term minded investors who wanted to be a part in the growth of companies.  The growth of companies used to be driven through hiring people and growing a localized workforce.  That served the common good.  Today, shareholders are driven by microsecond deviations of 1/8th percentage points.  If their point drops, they sell millions upon millions of shares of companies that employ people.  People cannot respond to this level of change.  Also, IIRC 70% of all stock is not owned by individuals.  Think about that.

Example 2:  We as a people want and expect our citizens to have a savings account and plan for "when things get tough".  While the vast majority of Americans dont have these savings, if they lose their job or have an unexpected cost they could lose their house, car, everything.  They may need to declare bankruptcy, get their future wages garnished, stay with family/friends until its all recovered from.  Now - look at corporations.  Our stock market drops like 20-30% in 1 month, just 1 month, and now all corporations need to layoff millions of workers.  We have the largest unemployment numbers in like forever.  Why is it we expect our citizens to have "savings accounts for tough times", but we dont expect our corporations to have the same protections?  Where is the corporations plans?  Why did they not prepare for hardship or the unexpected expense?  Where was this future planning when things were good?  Why is it we privatize profits for our corporations and shareholders, but we socialize losses for the same corporations through bailouts which as we all well know will ultimately will be paid by citizens taxes?  Why is this way?  Why is it when things are good execs and shareholders are rewarded (remember, shareholders are for the most part not people) but when things are bad, the citizens need to pay for it?

Once you understand the system and how is is organized, its easy to see, plainly easy IMO, that it does not benefit the common good.

None of what I have said above is political.

Capitalism or Communism or Socialism or the like and how the citizens are served will almost always be political. Please let's not do that here. 

There are lots of threads like this in the Political forum. Please take it there and let's keep this mostly on how we can help each other with the Covid-19 crisis. Thanks. 

 

[NotSmart]

We see all these models about the virus moving through the air, hoping over supermarket shelves 2 isles over, walking through some virus cloud of the person running in front of us.....and they are making a handshake our anti-doomsday solution? 

Don't buy into any of this yet -- aerosols haven't even been shown to carry "live", whole viruses.

Correct, don't buy into it yet, and hopefully it isn't possible to walk through someone's "vapor cloud" and get infected.

But I absolutely think it's prudent to consider that it may be possible and to protect oneself appropriately until the true facts are known.

 

[fruity pebbles]

My sister knows 2 nurses who have already quit.

I honestly can't blame them... if our government can't provide basic safety in the form of PPE to front line medical workers during a pandemic, I don't see why those workers could be expected to put their lives on the line when their lives clearly weren't valued.

Honestly, I’ve been both a soldier and now a nurse. I’m lucky that we haven’t reached our peak yet and it appears to be lower than initially expected. The nurses in the hardest hit areas were set up for failure. I attribute it to being told to go to war without a weapon. They are persevering for their communities and their teammates but when this is finally under control, a lot of them are done. 

 

[NotSmart]

Honestly, I’ve been both a soldier and now a nurse. I’m lucky that we haven’t reached our peak yet and it appears to be lower than initially expected. The nurses in the hardest hit areas were set up for failure. I attribute it to being told to go to war without a weapon. They are persevering for their communities and their teammates but when this is finally under control, a lot of them are done. 

They all have my utmost respect and appreciation.

I hope there are wide sweeping changes that eventually come out of this that address the systemic failures to value and protect our workers.

 

[tri-man 47]

so after all this coronavirus is gone and we are back to normal. What do you think will happen with Hand shakes?

I just hope we change the tradition with celebratory cakes ...cut a piece out for the honoree, put a candle on that piece, and let them blow all over it.  

 

[shader]

New York - 777 deaths

Italy +3,951 cases and +570 deaths.

 

[SFBayDuck]

Just got back from the store, first time in almost two weeks.  Probably 90% of people wearing masks of some sort and most had on gloves.  Employees were wiping down carts and giving them out as you entered, and the aisles were marked as one-way.  Headed straight to the paper aisle, about half stocked with everything (limit 1).  Most aisles were pretty well stocked, better than the last time I went.  The exception was in the produce section, several items (onions, russets, salad mixes) completely out.

Checkout took about 30 minutes as the lines were so long, and every cart was full.  They also only had every other checkout line open.

Overall it was just a little surreal, really seemed like a scene from a movie more than real life.  Strange times.

 

[sho nuff]

They all have my utmost respect and appreciation.

I hope there are wide sweeping changes that eventually come out of this that address the systemic failures to value and protect our workers.

And hope they will be provided mental health care...

 

[gianmarco]

With the lack of mainstream sports, I bring you Game of Bones

This is such good shtick.

4x4 Pushchair Final

2020 Crossroad Dash

 

[Cowboysfan8]

Was at Walmart this morning. When I was at the checkout I loooked over by the front wall and there was a folding table with a sign hanging on it that said “check us out”

On the table was a small pack of paper towels, some bottles of cleaners of some type, hand soap and two 3 oz bottles of Equate hand sanitizer. I haven’t even looked for sanitizer in weeks because no one has it. But I am getting low

I asked the kid ringing me out if the stuff on that table was for sale. “Oh yeah, definitely” 

So I walked over and grabbed the sanitizers and sat them on my conveyor. When he got to them he said “you’re only supposed to be allowed one bottle but I’ll let you have both”

Felt like I won something.

 

[DaVinci]

This is such good shtick.

4x4 Pushchair Final

2020 Crossroad Dash

These are great. There goes my afternoon. 

 

[NotSmart]

What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage - It isn’t really about hoarding. And there isn’t an easy fix.

tldr: There are 2 TP markets, consumer and industrial (e.g. restaurants, schools, hotels, airports).  Different TP companies serve each market, and produce differently sized, packaged, and quality TP. The industrial producers can't easily switch to the consumer market.

Spoiler

What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage
It isn’t really about hoarding. And there isn’t an easy fix.
Will Oremus
Will Oremus
Follow
Apr 2 · 6 min read

Stores have placed limits on purchases of toilet paper, yet they’re still selling out, suggesting that hoarding isn’t entirely to blame. Photo: Icon Sportswire/Getty Images
AAround the world, in countries afflicted with the coronavirus, stores are sold out of toilet paper. There have been shortages in Hong Kong, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. And we all know who to blame: hoarders and panic-buyers.
Well, not so fast.
Story after story explains the toilet paper outages as a sort of fluke of consumer irrationality. Unlike hand sanitizer, N95 masks, or hospital ventilators, they note, toilet paper serves no special function in a pandemic. Toilet paper manufacturers are cranking out the same supply as always. And it’s not like people are using the bathroom more often, right?
U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar summed up the paradox in a March 13 New York Times story: “Toilet paper is not an effective way to prevent getting the coronavirus, but they’re selling out.” The president of a paper manufacturer offered the consensus explanation: “You are not using more of it. You are just filling up your closet with it.”
Faced with this mystifying phenomenon, media outlets have turned to psychologists to explain why people are cramming their shelves with a household good that has nothing to do with the pandemic. Read the coverage and you’ll encounter all sorts of fascinating concepts, from “zero risk bias” to “anticipatory anxiety.” It’s “driven by fear” and a “herd mentality,” the BBC scolded. The libertarian Mises Institute took the opportunity to blame anti-gouging laws. The Atlantic published a short documentary harking back to the great toilet paper scare of 1973, which was driven by misinformation.
Most outlets agreed that the spike in demand would be short-lived, subsiding as soon as the hoarders were satiated.
No doubt there’s been some panic-buying, particularly once photos of empty store shelves began circulating on social media. There have also been a handful of documented cases of true hoarding. But you don’t need to assume that most consumers are greedy or irrational to understand how coronavirus would spur a surge in demand. And you can stop wondering where in the world people are storing all that Quilted Northern.
There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.
In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.
Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant. It’s one that won’t fully subside even when people stop hoarding or panic-buying.

Boxes of Angel Soft toilet paper for the consumer market roll off the line at Georgia-Pacific’s paper mill in Palatka, Florida. Credit: Image courtesy of Georgia-Pacific
If you’re looking for where all the toilet paper went, forget about people’s attics or hall closets. Think instead of all the toilet paper that normally goes to the commercial market — those office buildings, college campuses, Starbucks, and airports that are now either mostly empty or closed. That’s the toilet paper that’s suddenly going unused.
So why can’t we just send that toilet paper to Safeway or CVS? That’s where supply chains and distribution channels come in.
Not only is it not the same product, but it often doesn’t come from the same mills.
Talk to anyone in the industry, and they’ll tell you the toilet paper made for the commercial market is a fundamentally different product from the toilet paper you buy in the store. It comes in huge rolls, too big to fit on most home dispensers. The paper itself is thinner and more utilitarian. It comes individually wrapped and is shipped on huge pallets, rather than in brightly branded packs of six or 12.
“Not only is it not the same product, but it often doesn’t come from the same mills,” added Jim Luke, a professor of economics at Lansing Community College, who once worked as head of planning for a wholesale paper distributor. “So for instance, Procter & Gamble [which owns Charmin] is huge in the retail consumer market. But it doesn’t play in the institutional market at all.”
Georgia-Pacific, which sells to both markets, told me its commercial products also use more recycled fiber, while the retail sheets for its consumer brands Angel Soft and Quilted Northern are typically 100% virgin fiber. Eric Abercrombie, a spokesman for the company, said it has seen demand rise on the retail side, while it expects a decline in the “away-from-home activity” that drives its business-to-business sales.
In theory, some of the mills that make commercial toilet paper could try to redirect some of that supply to the consumer market. People desperate for toilet paper probably wouldn’t turn up their noses at it. But the industry can’t just flip a switch. Shifting to retail channels would require new relationships and contracts between suppliers, distributors, and stores; different formats for packaging and shipping; new trucking routes — all for a bulky product with lean profit margins.
Because toilet paper is high volume but low value, the industry runs on extreme efficiency, with mills built to work at full capacity around the clock even in normal times. That works only because demand is typically so steady. If toilet paper manufacturers spend a bunch of money now to refocus on the retail channel, they’ll face the same problem in reverse once people head back to work again.
“The normal distribution system is like a well-orchestrated ballet,” said Willy Shih, a professor at Harvard Business School. “If you make a delivery to a Walmart distribution center, they give you a half-hour window, and your truck has to show up then.” The changes wrought by the coronavirus, he said, “have thrown the whole thing out of balance, and everything has to readjust.”
While toilet paper is an extreme case, similar dynamics are likely to temporarily disrupt supplies of other goods, too — even if no one’s hoarding or panic-buying. The CEO of a fruit and vegetable supplier told NPR’s Weekend Edition that schools and restaurants are canceling their banana orders, while grocery stores are selling out and want more. The problem is that the bananas he sells to schools and restaurants are “petite” and sold loose in boxes of 150, whereas grocery store bananas are larger and sold in bunches. Beer companies face a similar challenge converting commercial keg sales to retail cans and bottles.
I’m absolutely convinced that very little was triggered by hoarding.
It’s all happening, of course, against the backdrop of a pandemic that makes it hard enough for these producers to keep up business as usual, let alone remold their operations to keep up with radical shifts in demand.
If there’s any good news, it’s that we can stop blaming these shortages on the alleged idiocy of our fellow consumers. “I’m absolutely convinced that very little was triggered by hoarding,” Luke said. Even a modest, reasonable amount of stocking up by millions of people in preparation for stay-at-home orders would have been enough to deplete many store shelves. From there, the ripple effects of availability concerns, coupled with a genuine increase in demand due to people staying in, are sufficient to explain the ongoing supply problems.
In the long run, the industry is still optimistic that it can adapt. “We’ve got fiber supply, we’ve got trees,” said Georgia-Pacific’s Abercrombie. “It’s just a matter of making the product and getting it out.”
In the meantime, some enterprising restaurateurs have begun selling their excess supplies of toilet paper, alcohol, and other basics. Last week I picked up takeout at a local restaurant with a side of toilet paper and bananas. The toilet paper was thin and individually wrapped. The bananas were puny. They’ll do just fine.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage - It isn’t really about hoarding. And there isn’t an easy fix.

tldr: There are 2 TP markets, consumer and industrial (e.g. restaurants, schools, hotels, airports).  Different TP companies serve each market, and produce differently sized, packaged, and quality TP. The industrial producers can't easily switch to the consumer market.

Spoiler

What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Toilet Paper Shortage
It isn’t really about hoarding. And there isn’t an easy fix.
Will Oremus
Will Oremus
Follow
Apr 2 · 6 min read

Stores have placed limits on purchases of toilet paper, yet they’re still selling out, suggesting that hoarding isn’t entirely to blame. Photo: Icon Sportswire/Getty Images
AAround the world, in countries afflicted with the coronavirus, stores are sold out of toilet paper. There have been shortages in Hong Kong, Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States. And we all know who to blame: hoarders and panic-buyers.
Well, not so fast.
Story after story explains the toilet paper outages as a sort of fluke of consumer irrationality. Unlike hand sanitizer, N95 masks, or hospital ventilators, they note, toilet paper serves no special function in a pandemic. Toilet paper manufacturers are cranking out the same supply as always. And it’s not like people are using the bathroom more often, right?
U.S. Health Secretary Alex Azar summed up the paradox in a March 13 New York Times story: “Toilet paper is not an effective way to prevent getting the coronavirus, but they’re selling out.” The president of a paper manufacturer offered the consensus explanation: “You are not using more of it. You are just filling up your closet with it.”
Faced with this mystifying phenomenon, media outlets have turned to psychologists to explain why people are cramming their shelves with a household good that has nothing to do with the pandemic. Read the coverage and you’ll encounter all sorts of fascinating concepts, from “zero risk bias” to “anticipatory anxiety.” It’s “driven by fear” and a “herd mentality,” the BBC scolded. The libertarian Mises Institute took the opportunity to blame anti-gouging laws. The Atlantic published a short documentary harking back to the great toilet paper scare of 1973, which was driven by misinformation.
Most outlets agreed that the spike in demand would be short-lived, subsiding as soon as the hoarders were satiated.
No doubt there’s been some panic-buying, particularly once photos of empty store shelves began circulating on social media. There have also been a handful of documented cases of true hoarding. But you don’t need to assume that most consumers are greedy or irrational to understand how coronavirus would spur a surge in demand. And you can stop wondering where in the world people are storing all that Quilted Northern.
There’s another, entirely logical explanation for why stores have run out of toilet paper — one that has gone oddly overlooked in the vast majority of media coverage. It has nothing to do with psychology and everything to do with supply chains. It helps to explain why stores are still having trouble keeping it in stock, weeks after they started limiting how many a customer could purchase.
In short, the toilet paper industry is split into two, largely separate markets: commercial and consumer. The pandemic has shifted the lion’s share of demand to the latter. People actually do need to buy significantly more toilet paper during the pandemic — not because they’re making more trips to the bathroom, but because they’re making more of them at home. With some 75% of the U.S. population under stay-at-home orders, Americans are no longer using the restrooms at their workplace, in schools, at restaurants, at hotels, or in airports.
Georgia-Pacific, a leading toilet paper manufacturer based in Atlanta, estimates that the average household will use 40% more toilet paper than usual if all of its members are staying home around the clock. That’s a huge leap in demand for a product whose supply chain is predicated on the assumption that demand is essentially constant. It’s one that won’t fully subside even when people stop hoarding or panic-buying.

Boxes of Angel Soft toilet paper for the consumer market roll off the line at Georgia-Pacific’s paper mill in Palatka, Florida. Credit: Image courtesy of Georgia-Pacific
If you’re looking for where all the toilet paper went, forget about people’s attics or hall closets. Think instead of all the toilet paper that normally goes to the commercial market — those office buildings, college campuses, Starbucks, and airports that are now either mostly empty or closed. That’s the toilet paper that’s suddenly going unused.
So why can’t we just send that toilet paper to Safeway or CVS? That’s where supply chains and distribution channels come in.
Not only is it not the same product, but it often doesn’t come from the same mills.
Talk to anyone in the industry, and they’ll tell you the toilet paper made for the commercial market is a fundamentally different product from the toilet paper you buy in the store. It comes in huge rolls, too big to fit on most home dispensers. The paper itself is thinner and more utilitarian. It comes individually wrapped and is shipped on huge pallets, rather than in brightly branded packs of six or 12.
“Not only is it not the same product, but it often doesn’t come from the same mills,” added Jim Luke, a professor of economics at Lansing Community College, who once worked as head of planning for a wholesale paper distributor. “So for instance, Procter & Gamble [which owns Charmin] is huge in the retail consumer market. But it doesn’t play in the institutional market at all.”
Georgia-Pacific, which sells to both markets, told me its commercial products also use more recycled fiber, while the retail sheets for its consumer brands Angel Soft and Quilted Northern are typically 100% virgin fiber. Eric Abercrombie, a spokesman for the company, said it has seen demand rise on the retail side, while it expects a decline in the “away-from-home activity” that drives its business-to-business sales.
In theory, some of the mills that make commercial toilet paper could try to redirect some of that supply to the consumer market. People desperate for toilet paper probably wouldn’t turn up their noses at it. But the industry can’t just flip a switch. Shifting to retail channels would require new relationships and contracts between suppliers, distributors, and stores; different formats for packaging and shipping; new trucking routes — all for a bulky product with lean profit margins.
Because toilet paper is high volume but low value, the industry runs on extreme efficiency, with mills built to work at full capacity around the clock even in normal times. That works only because demand is typically so steady. If toilet paper manufacturers spend a bunch of money now to refocus on the retail channel, they’ll face the same problem in reverse once people head back to work again.
“The normal distribution system is like a well-orchestrated ballet,” said Willy Shih, a professor at Harvard Business School. “If you make a delivery to a Walmart distribution center, they give you a half-hour window, and your truck has to show up then.” The changes wrought by the coronavirus, he said, “have thrown the whole thing out of balance, and everything has to readjust.”
While toilet paper is an extreme case, similar dynamics are likely to temporarily disrupt supplies of other goods, too — even if no one’s hoarding or panic-buying. The CEO of a fruit and vegetable supplier told NPR’s Weekend Edition that schools and restaurants are canceling their banana orders, while grocery stores are selling out and want more. The problem is that the bananas he sells to schools and restaurants are “petite” and sold loose in boxes of 150, whereas grocery store bananas are larger and sold in bunches. Beer companies face a similar challenge converting commercial keg sales to retail cans and bottles.
I’m absolutely convinced that very little was triggered by hoarding.
It’s all happening, of course, against the backdrop of a pandemic that makes it hard enough for these producers to keep up business as usual, let alone remold their operations to keep up with radical shifts in demand.
If there’s any good news, it’s that we can stop blaming these shortages on the alleged idiocy of our fellow consumers. “I’m absolutely convinced that very little was triggered by hoarding,” Luke said. Even a modest, reasonable amount of stocking up by millions of people in preparation for stay-at-home orders would have been enough to deplete many store shelves. From there, the ripple effects of availability concerns, coupled with a genuine increase in demand due to people staying in, are sufficient to explain the ongoing supply problems.
In the long run, the industry is still optimistic that it can adapt. “We’ve got fiber supply, we’ve got trees,” said Georgia-Pacific’s Abercrombie. “It’s just a matter of making the product and getting it out.”
In the meantime, some enterprising restaurateurs have begun selling their excess supplies of toilet paper, alcohol, and other basics. Last week I picked up takeout at a local restaurant with a side of toilet paper and bananas. The toilet paper was thin and individually wrapped. The bananas were puny. They’ll do just fine.

'In the long run, the industry is still optimistic that it can adapt. “We’ve got fiber supply, we’ve got trees,” said Georgia-Pacific’s Abercrombie. “It’s just a matter of making the product and getting it out.”'

Read this article last week and the week before. Still baffling. Where you at guy?