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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

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If Public Health called tomorrow and told you that you had tested positive for COVID-19 and asked you to list all the places you had been and all the people you had been in contact with for the last 10 days - would you be proud of yourself, or embarrassed by your actions? 

Just something to think about. No need to answer.
This is an excellent post.  

 
If Public Health called tomorrow and told you that you had tested positive for COVID-19 and asked you to list all the places you had been and all the people you had been in contact with for the last 10 days - would you be proud of yourself, or embarrassed by your actions? 

Just something to think about. No need to answer.
The grocery store on Sunday. And last Sunday. The end.

 
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I'm seeing a lot of posts here and in my social media feeds along the lines of "I think I had coronavirus back in February and I just didn't realize it at the time."  No you didn't.  Or at least it is vanishingly unlikely that you did. 

If we know anything about this virus, it is that it it causes very severe symptoms in about 20% of patients that requires hospitalization.  If C-19 was widely circulating in February, our hospitals would have been overwhelmed by an illness that was causing non-flu viral pneumonia and putting a bunch of people on ventilators.  Nobody would have missed this, especially since the exact same outbreak was occurring in spades in China.  

In order to believe that you got covid-19 in February, you need to believe that this virus was circulating without detection despite worldwide media coverage and that you were in the extremely tiny group of folks who got this in the super-early stages before it even registered on the health care system, which we know it does very rapidly.  In Bayesian terms, that is so incredibly unlikely as to be dismissed out of hand.

Sorry to be the bearer of bad news, but if you thought you had the common cold or a mild case of the flu a month ago, it was about 99% the common cold or a mild case of the flu, both of which are super-common during that time of the year.  Specifically, you do not have C-19 antibodies and you should not behave as if you did.
It's been proven that there was Covid 19 in Seattle by the third week of January.  That means it was already in the wild and there were likely hundreds of thousands of undetected cases by mid-February.

 
If Public Health called tomorrow and told you that you had tested positive for COVID-19 and asked you to list all the places you had been and all the people you had been in contact with for the last 10 days - would you be proud of yourself, or embarrassed by your actions? 

Just something to think about. No need to answer.
In fairness, it’s not like the bagel guys was sitting in his open store all day hoping no customers show up. 

 
Question as I've been too busy to follow closely. 

Why on earth is anyone in favor of paying people directly rather than sending aid to companies with the contingency they keep staff employed? Help keep small/mid sized businesses afloat via cash and runway (defer liabilities) with strict earmarks they they keep staff covered. Set aside help for unemployed (extend/enhance unemployment and food stamps). 

If we follow the focus on handing people checks approach, their employers will go under..  and we will have a glut of people dependent on federal aid. how do people not realize this is a terrible idea? 

We need jobs to be intact when this dies down. 
Millions of employed people are already now unemployed.

And thousands of small business owners are now closed, no longer making an income, and don't qualify for unemployement.

I don't disagree with you, but it shouldn't be one or the other. A lot of things need to be done. 

 
My favorite about these press conferences is how they all stand next to each other, to get in TV camera lines of sight, all the while telling the nation to make sure and keep their distance from each other.  Hello, there are 5 of you within a 10 x 4 foot box right now.
Forget the blonde doctor's name but she was motioning that admiral away to not stand so close to her.

 
It's been proven that there was Covid 19 in Seattle by the third week of January.  That means it was already in the wild and there were likely hundreds of thousands of undetected cases by mid-February.
If that were true, there would have been tens of thousands of people in hospitals in mid-February.  That didn't happen.

 
Question as I've been too busy to follow closely. 

Why on earth is anyone in favor of paying people directly rather than sending aid to companies with the contingency they keep staff employed? Help keep small/mid sized businesses afloat via cash and runway (defer liabilities) with strict earmarks they they keep staff covered. Set aside help for unemployed (extend/enhance unemployment and food stamps). 

If we follow the focus on handing people checks approach, their employers will go under..  and we will have a glut of people dependent on federal aid. how do people not realize this is a terrible idea? 

We need jobs to be intact when this dies down. 
Maybe people don't trust corporations to not lay off workers, pay executives, and use money for things like stock buybacks.   Paying workers directly prevents foreclosures and allows for consumer spending.   

 
If they can ship it in numbers, the rapid diagnostic test should be a huge help in determining how to allocate resources.

 
If that were true, there would have been tens of thousands of people in hospitals in mid-February.  That didn't happen.
Your not thinking about the incubation period. Also, what if the infection rate is not as high as we believe?

We don’t have the data. We will only have it in like 6 months

 
Maybe people don't trust corporations to not lay off workers, pay executives, and use money for things like stock buybacks.   Paying workers directly prevents foreclosures and allows for consumer spending.   
That's why you tie the cash to maintaining staff levels for X months/years or you have to repay the "loan". 

If we just cut checks to people we will be at 30% unemployment by the time this is over as ####loads of small/midsize businesses fail. 
 

 
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Well...I just got the word. Museum is hemorrhaging money. 50% of our revenue comes from visitors. No visitors - no revenue. 

So I just got furloughed. :kicksrock:

Actually feel OK though. We are fine financially (I hope) and the not knowing was the worst part.

Stay safe and happy friends :cheers:
Six foot hug back at ya. Sorry dude. 

 
And that's going to be enforced how?  By self-policing by the people that profit off of ignoring those rules?  
I feel like we can manage an extra  Corporate tax form that requires evidence of keeping jobs active. I don't think anyone is suggesting honor system here.

If we feel like our government isn't capable of adding a layer of processing to employment/tax data they're already collecting....  I don't know what to tell ya 

if the result of this aid package is 30% of the population is unemployed and More dependent on federal assistance then it's a total failure. 

 
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I don't disagree they will help.... for however long we implement them.    And then stuff will probably just start kicking right back up again and I don't buy that China has 0 new cases.    I expect to still have Corona cases in 2021.  
not sure about the rest of this stuff but I agree with you that it's a sucker bet to believe any info coming out of China. We're talking about an authoritarian dictatorship that wouldn't even admit a problem three months ago and has absolutely no incentive to tell the truth to the rest of the world.

 
I feel like we can manage an extra  Corporate tax form that requires evidence of keeping jobs active. I don't think anyone is suggesting honor system here.

If we feel like our government isn't capable of adding a layer of processing to employment/tax data they're already collecting....  I don't know what to tell ya 
Hmm..given that our own Senators are engaging in profit taking and the fact that our corporate history is that in every instance corporations take profits over workers...I'm gonna say just give the checks to the workers.

 
If Public Health called tomorrow and told you that you had tested positive for COVID-19 and asked you to list all the places you had been and all the people you had been in contact with for the last 10 days - would you be proud of yourself, or embarrassed by your actions? 

Just something to think about. No need to answer.
This is an excellent post.  
It is.  I'm also embarrassed to ask you @gianmarco but have you happened to see a Rod Carew autographed Angel's hat around your house?  It's my lucky hat. Perhaps in the master bath?

 
Well...I just got the word. Museum is hemorrhaging money. 50% of our revenue comes from visitors. No visitors - no revenue. 

So I just got furloughed. :kicksrock:

Actually feel OK though. We are fine financially (I hope) and the not knowing was the worst part.

Stay safe and happy friends :cheers:
sorry to hear it brother. I work at a university and am hearing some pretty worrying rumblings about similar stuff here too ☠️

 
Question as I've been too busy to follow closely. 

Why on earth is anyone in favor of paying people directly rather than sending aid to companies with the contingency they keep staff employed? Help keep small/mid sized businesses afloat via cash and runway (defer liabilities) with strict earmarks they they keep staff covered. Set aside help for unemployed (extend/enhance unemployment and food stamps). 

If we follow the focus on handing people checks approach, their employers will go under..  and we will have a glut of people dependent on federal aid. how do people not realize this is a terrible idea? 

We need jobs to be intact when this dies down. 
How would you enforce that?  Companies have a long history of not doing what they say they will do.  

It's much better if the recently unemployed has the money in their hand rather than hope the company keeps them on board, imo. 

 
Inslee...issuing "stay home, stay healthy order."

Ban on all gatherings.  No definition of what a gathering is (so far).

Closing all non-essential businesses.

Going outside using social distancing ok.

 
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2 weeks. 

Non essential trips "not advised"

"Does not mean you can't go outside"

All gatherings cancelled.  Social, spiritual, anything.   

 
I just don’t see how mandatory quarantine of the entire country is even remotely in the realm of possibility. 
There's a difference between social distancing and self isolation.   Social distancing should be mandatory.  Unessential businesses should be closed.

 
Roads in Phoenix during rush hour were pretty clear. Traffic down significantly.Particularly this time of year with snowbirds.  Hiking trail lots were packed. And A LOT more people just out on walks in general (gonna guess probably the ones avoiding the more crowded trails)

Don't think it'll matter whether they close the trails or not here. People will still go. I'm going everyday but have a trailhead in backyard and rarely if ever come across people along the back trails I go on. 

 
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Your not thinking about the incubation period. Also, what if the infection rate is not as high as we believe?

We don’t have the data. We will only have it in like 6 months
I am thinking about the incubation period.  You cannot simultaneously believe "I had symptoms of coronavirus in February" and "Nobody showed up in hospitals until now" unless you think you're a unicorn.  

 
I thought that was what we were doing.  
That's what we're supposed to be doing, but there were a lot of unessential businesses making people go to work.   

There are also idiots not observing social distancing and even encouraging it.

 
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