This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Please dont speak in facts, we are all speculating and creating projections here. In a post a couple above I have stated why I believe that's my number. You are welcome to disagree with it. To be fair, my range is a mortality rate of .1 to .5. Confidence internal? Meh, 35%?
They were tested over the weekend with St Luke’s in Philly...will follow up with more details.
It is worse since I read the article. 712 cases. 10 dead. 105 still sick with 15 listed as serious. 1.4% with a chance of rising
I agree, it’s not the same as in person for sure. That’s true for our adults but even more so for our kids. Tough to continue those programs in any meaningful way and as a church that is over 50% under the age of 18, that is big for us. But what happened in South Korea really sticks in my mind. Their biggest exposure and transmission happened when a woman who was positive went to her mega church and gave it to a bunch of people. We certainly don’t want to base our decisions in fear, but the reality is that churches that decide to ignore orders not to meet are probably going to be viewed as uncaring towards their local community as those meetings would, at least appear, to increase the danger to the larger community.
You can believe in whatever you want. But if you're going to post it in here, I'm going to show you when you're wrong. You literally just said in a different post "each season we have between 20k and 50k flu deaths. If this season we doubled the flu death it wouldn't be that bad."
It’s all an overreaction until a beloved family member is getting unplugged from life support.
Im skeptical that data like that is available. Cool none the less. Scary if true (on multiple fronts).
Wow that's interesting. That falls right in line with South Korea. South Korea, by far, has done the best job of any country in testing. Their death rate, in my mind, represents the absolute best case scenario for a country. They are currently at 1.4%. Thanks for the update.
Unless we think every governor, who have much more inside info than we do, are lying - well...
drive thru the white castle for me. i keep getting crave case coupons and can’t use them.
Why country do you want to use? Italy? Their population demographic is incredibly different than ours. In addition, we have like 5435235432234 more acres of land for the virus to cover.
The CDC actually used something like that here in NJ for the Red Bank Regional high school case. That's how they identified the 51 students that had close contact with the girl and quarantined them and their families. My friend and his daughter were part of it so that's how I know. The high school makes all the kids register their phones at the beginning of the school year, so they already had that monitoring in place.
Younger, fully healthy people are in the hospital with this. And even if you have a mild case you can pass to someone like you described above. There are bunch of cases already in my neighborhood. I'm staying on lockdown.
I can tell that you dont work with projections for a living. The way you speak about estimates and projections makes it clear you dont understand what they are about. Good luck to you my friend
It's honestly heartbreaking to see that attitude so prevalent, it will directly lead to untold needless deaths.
- thanks for ... again ... reminding everyone you dont understand projections. A projection is a defacto bet with a confidence interval.
We live in a society where everyone feels their opinion is just as important as anyone else’s.
Yes. Younger people are in the hospital. Some will even die.
Regarding the bolded, I know you know this, but it's still good to remember that everyone who is taking great care to not get infected themself or to transmit the virus, you are one of the dots in the second half of this animation:
Didn't feel like zero risk. You do your best but this thing comes down to pure luck
That’s sad. And I read today that analysts expect next weeks to be awful too. No idea how the markets are up
agreed. given the late start and total lack of testing in many places across America, combined with a significant percentage of the population basically ignoring stay in place rules, i suspect the cases in america are significantly under reported.
I don't think anyone is denying that there's a virus out there, and that it has claimed lives. But there seem to be a lot of people denying that 12 to 14 months of acting this way is not doable. It's a non-starter. There seems to be a prevailing belief in some that if I go out and shake my neighbors hand that we're going to end up killing everyone we come into contact with afterwards. The "well, 2,000 people died yesterday - that means 4,000 will die tomorrow" crowd are instilling fear and panic into people that by and large won't be killed by this thing. The vast majority of people who get this will recover just fine.
Well said
Ive been taking long breaks from here everyday. Super helpful.
Mortality rate takes those into account (fundamentally). This is exactly why flattening the curve is so important. While ~70% may get infected, we want it to happen over 5-10 months, not 3 months
Just want to, you know, make a point here ... that, uh ... someone said the guardian was, uh ... not always accurate (enters The Federalist)
That was me, except when they shut down Italy. You just know that was an excruciating decision to have to make. That's what woke me up to all this. As I expressed a few hundred pages ago, aka yesterday, I only regret that I didn't check into this thread about a month ago, to have a better idea of what was going on and potentially, if not definitely, heading our way.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
Step 1: rosy analysis from non-experts
I'm of course being facetious, but it was for a point. Projections are just that ... speculations. Just like the stock market, just like sporting events, prop bets, etc. I understand that people dont like to speculate about death, it is rather morbid. However, if someone comes in with a speculation based on logic and reason, then someone else comes in and says its impossible ... the quickest way to dispel that impossibility is with some skin in the game, i.e. money.I don't have a dog in this hunt overall, but I'd presume he is not betting because betting on this is incredibly distasteful. C'mon, GBJAA.
