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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)

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Grace Under Pressure said:
It's an estimate but based on China & South Korea's duration of their bell curve. Very few countries have been through the full curve yet, but that's the best I could gather. Every region will have it's own curve duration of course.
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People (Scientists)  have been writing that Farr's law is not necessarily in play at all, so the premise (that it is bell shaped and symmetrical) may be way off

 
Jayrod said:
This sucks.  Like really bad sucks in so many ways.

Not just because we can get really sick and lots of people will likely die (as if that isn't bad enough), but now we have people in fear, financial worries, overwhelmed hospitals, TP shortages (still confused here) and schools trying to figure out how to teach grade school kids online.  Meanwhile, parents are fighting with kids, fighting with each other and fighting with their ignorant elderly parents to please stop going to the store to buy two items they can live without.
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Yes, but none of that matters as long as stock prices are good and corporations are bailed out.  

 
JbizzleMan said:
https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1243347447537115136?s=20

Those comforted by Birx today, maybe wanna read that...
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Yeah, I wasn’t very happy with her comments today.  I think they bordered on irresponsible, actually. 
 

Her background is HIV which is sexually transmitted and has much different epidemiological dynamics than something like COVID-19. That’s why I tend to pay more attention to the people versed in modeling dynamic systems than entrusting an MD to guess how this will spread based on intuition.  

 
Politician Spock said:
That's a strawman. I blame the people who ignored the need to practice social distance. Someone required to go to work isn't ignoring it. The don't have a choice. 
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Yeah but blaming a region when huge portions of the country is ignoring it as well is fine. NY has been basically shut down since the 16th. Yes there are people ignoring it but there are people ignoring it across the entire country. What is actual worse is people who see what is happening in NY and refusing to do anything about it. 

 
mr roboto said:
I mean not really. Many people have stopped traveling. Many have stopped congregating. Many people are only mostly seeing the same small group of people. At lest where I’m at. 
 

Do you believe that extreme social distancing is doing NOTHING?
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I dont believe we are doing extreme social distancing as a whole in the country. 

Like I said, I still see people from all over at the store  People I work with still refuse to stay home.  Churches still in session, some states still not implementing shelter at home rules, etc, etc.   As SK showed, all it takes is one person, and from my personal experience I am not convinced even half the people I know are following suggested guidelines.  

 
Redwes25 said:
Yeah but blaming a region when huge portions of the country is ignoring it as well is fine. NY has been basically shut down since the 16th. Yes there are people ignoring it but there are people ignoring it across the entire country. What is actual worse is people who see what is happening in NY and refusing to do anything about it. 
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I wholeheartedly agree with the bolded. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
I dont believe we are doing extreme social distancing as a whole in the country. 

Like I said, I still see people from all over at the store  People I work with still refuse to stay home.  Churches still in session, some states still not implementing shelter at home rules, etc, etc.   As SK showed, all it takes is one person, and from my personal experience I am not convinced even half the people I know are following suggested guidelines.  
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Fair enough. Where I’m at it’s better. 
 

Im just not going to trust exponential projections as if nothing has changed anywhere. 

 
mr roboto said:
Fair enough. Where I’m at it’s better. 
 

Im just not going to trust exponential projections as if nothing has changed anywhere. 
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I get it, and I dont have the answer to that.  Just saying I see little change last week vs when we implemented our safe at home protocols for the state.  People driving everywhere and no noticable difference in traffic.  

 
I mentioned previously in here how a nurse friend of ours put a call out for masks. I found some P95 masks the first day, but have kept looking. Started checking pretty much every website in the area multiple times a day. Saw that many menards had got stock in of some R95 masks. Texted our friend and she was actually already out and about. So she went in to buy them. Menards has put limits on the number of them you can buy and you have to ask for them. 

She pleaded with the employee to let her buy all of them, but no luck, the employee said no way.

Well the reason she said no way is because two employees grabbed the remaining masks and went to the front and bought them and gave them to her and said thank you. 

Thought that was pretty awesome. 

Just an FYI I have found quite a few of the P95 and R95 masks. These are actually superior to the N95 and since most people dont know that, I think they are not as coveted. So if anybody lives near a menards and would like to pick up some masks to donate to a hospital this mask currently has a lot of locations with stock.  

 
tamales said:
I called you out for rooting against NY on this the whole time. Thanks for proving my point. Now hopefully people will take your biased posts less seriously as they should. 
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Expressing anger towards how a city or state for how they are handling this <> "rooting against NY". 

 
tamales said:
I called you out for rooting against NY on this the whole time. Thanks for proving my point. Now hopefully people will take your biased posts less seriously as they should. 
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My bias is anger, and I HOPE people see it. There is a reason NYC is creating as much hospital space as they can in the next week or so. It's a reason you are in denial of. 

 
One of Michigan’s largest hospital systems issued a statement saying that they no longer can treat everyone. They will focus on people with best chance of survival. The people with a lower likelihood will be given pain meds to ease their death. 

I won’t put the Twitter link since it also includes a statement critical of someone 

 
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parasaurolophus said:
I mentioned previously in here how a nurse friend of ours put a call out for masks. I found some P95 masks the first day, but have kept looking. Started checking pretty much every website in the area multiple times a day. Saw that many menards had got stock in of some R95 masks. Texted our friend and she was actually already out and about. So she went in to buy them. Menards has put limits on the number of them you can buy and you have to ask for them. 

She pleaded with the employee to let her buy all of them, but no luck, the employee said no way.

Well the reason she said no way is because two employees grabbed the remaining masks and went to the front and bought them and gave them to her and said thank you. 

Thought that was pretty awesome. 

Just an FYI I have found quite a few of the P95 and R95 masks. These are actually superior to the N95 and since most people dont know that, I think they are not as coveted. So if anybody lives near a menards and would like to pick up some masks to donate to a hospital this mask currently has a lot of locations with stock.  
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39 million N95 masks coming
Not sure where they are going other than in NY or CA or how to get them. 

 
Nipsey said:
It definitely was surreal to be in Trader Joe's with half the people wearing gloves and masks while Queen's "Keep Yourself Alive" played over the sound system. The whole letting in only a certain number of people at a time was pretty great though. First time I've ever been in that store and it didn't feel jammed.
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Bee Caves Rd in Westlake?

 
Ilov80s said:
One of Michigan’s largest hospital systems issued a statement saying that they no longer can treat everyone. They will focus on people with best chance of survival. The people with a lower likelihood will be given paid meds to ease their death. 

I won’t put the Twitter link since it also includes a statement critical of someone 
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Can we put sensitivities to the side in the name of truth, information, and doing what’s freaking best for this community?  
 

I hope it’s ok for you to share the link, we need to all see and judge for ourselves. It’s not as if you are getting (what I assume to be the problem) political here. We legit need to have access to this information.

I apologize if that puts you in a bad spot @Ilov80s , and not asking you to post it if the mods don’t agree. 
 

Fuh. 😔 

 
Ilov80s said:
One of Michigan’s largest hospital systems issued a statement saying that they no longer can treat everyone. They will focus on people with best chance of survival. The people with a lower likelihood will be given paid meds to ease their death. 

I won’t put the Twitter link since it also includes a statement critical of someone 
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Wtf

 
gianmarco said:
This is absolutely terrifying -- Universal Do Not Resuscitate orders for COVID?
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“Please for the reassurance of people around the world, to wake up this morning and look at people talking about creating DNR situations, Do Not Resuscitate situations for patients, there is no situation in the United States right now that warrants that kind of discussion. You can be thinking about it in the hospital. Certainly, hospitals talk about this on a daily basis, but to say that to the American people and make the implication that when they need a hospital bed it's not going to be there or a ventilator, it's not going to be there, we don't have evidence of that.”

— Deborah Birx

I don’t think this kind of statement is helping. I get that’s she’s trying to state facts as they are at that moment, but we need to understand what is likely coming and how to best address it. There are certainly hospitals that are up against it and running out of resources. And we’re probably weeks away from the peak of this thing. 

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I've been out of the house for errands (ignoring running in the morning, by myself) three times in the past two weeks.  That's more than you, but way less than the average person.  Also, I'm highly introverted and ideally suited for a "safer at home" period.  I found my trips out to be strangely disorienting.  It's just weird to be driving around in broad daylight with other people, and strange to be in stores with other people around.  I would say that I've reacted fairly well to this whole situation mentally, but my reaction to being in public spaces makes me wonder if that's really the case or not.
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This is me. I followed orders and stocked food for a couple weeks a couple weeks ago. So it was time for more today. First time I have left the house. I sat in Walmart's parking lot for ten minutes watching "those people" and thinking of the many hundred others passing through already. I went to Albertson's. Sat in the parking lot... couldn't go in. Driving home I saw the convenience store closest to my house. Not a car in the parking lot. So I thought, milk, eggs, bread, booze, other junk, why not? So I parked, and feeling a little foolish I put on nitrile gloves and a mask.

At the front door was an employee in gloves and a mask wiping down every product before stocking. In an aisle was another employee wiping down every stocked product one at a time. I've been there hundreds of times, it has never been so pristine. The owner was there keeping his distance, gloves no mask. I ransacked the place filling my Trader Joe's cooler and two other bags that were in it. The owner asked me if I needed TP, rubbing alcohol, peroxide, sanitary wipes. I said no. He's keeping that stuff in a back room. Of course the check out clerk was wearing gloves and a mask. He asked cash or card. I said card. He sprayed the number pad and wiped it then slid it to me. $248.73. I got stuff, lotsa stuff. 

THEN before getting in my car I put my gloved hands in my jacket pockets. I sprayed them soon as I got home. So, my reaction to being in public spaces makes me wonder...

 
IvanKaramazov said:
I've been out of the house for errands (ignoring running in the morning, by myself) three times in the past two weeks.  That's more than you, but way less than the average person.  Also, I'm highly introverted and ideally suited for a "safer at home" period.  I found my trips out to be strangely disorienting.  It's just weird to be driving around in broad daylight with other people, and strange to be in stores with other people around.  I would say that I've reacted fairly well to this whole situation mentally, but my reaction to being in public spaces makes me wonder if that's really the case or not.
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Funny, I’ve been reading you for years. I would have never guessed that you’re introverted.

Of course I’m not doubting you, just commenting, I guess, how text never suggests personality and how online personas are deceiving.

 
Non-China Reported Cases

2/7 - 277 reported cases

2/12 - 490 reported cases

2/17 - 893 reported cases -  5 dead 

2/22 - 1,834 reported cases - 19 dead

2/26 - 3,650 reported cases - 57 dead

2/29 - 7,155 reported cases - 109 dead - USA 68 cases - 1 dead

3/5 - 17,353 reported cases - 344 dead - USA 210 cases - 12 dead

3/9 - 33,303 reported cases - 881 dead - USA 628 cases - 26 dead

3/13 - 64,567 reported cases - 2,239 dead - USA 2,269 cases - 48 dead

3/18 - 138,059 reported cases - 5,715 dead - USA 9,301 cases - 152 dead

3/19 - 164,646 reported cases - 6,800 dead - USA 14,299 cases - 218 dead

3/20 - 194,589 reported cases - 8,126 dead - USA 19,383 cases - 256 dead

3/21 - 225,885 reported cases - 9,771 dead - USA 26,112 cases - 325 dead

3/22 - 255,584 reported cases - 11,350 dead - USA 33,346 cases - 414 dead

3/23 - 297,299 reported cases - 13,221 dead - USA 43,449 cases - 545 dead

3/24 - 340,116 reported cases - 15,527 dead - USA 53,595 cases - 696 dead

3/25 - 387,081 reported cases - 17,899 dead - USA 65,652 cases - 931 dead

3/26 - 450,923 reported cases - 20,798 dead - USA  85,594 cases - 1,300 dead

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1-J_vry7rclLIGooJ-Cu7OFH8rRRjB51lz1iGkwcTETc/edit#gid=0

 
zoonation said:
There are many stories out there right now from front line medical workers (doctors nurses) saying covid19 deaths in America are being under reported.  Some because of covid deaths where people never got officially tested, and some where the numbers are just not being counted.  

https://twitter.com/buzzfeednews/status/1242994053794365440?s=21

Scary stuff.  
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A friend of mine, whose friend knows someone who works at a hospital in the state of New York and said they heard from someone who used to be friends with an administrator who knows a nurse said that there was a death from a suspected covid-19 but was never tested
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Terminalxylem said:
Only the ones who say it isn’t a big deal.
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Which seems to be exactly zero of the docs in any epicenter anywhere in the world. 

Follow the medical people that are active in the hard hit places, people. That will give you a better idea than any presser by someone not actually involved in a surge. 

 
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Flying Elvis said:
Which seems to be exactly zero of the docs in any epicenter anywhere in the world. 

Follow the medical people that are active in the hard hit places, people. That will give you a better idea than any presser by someone not actually involved in a surge. 
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I’m well aware. I work in a major hospital, and have never seen anything like this in my career. And we’re just starting to see an uptick in the number of cases.

 
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JAA said:
The US is trending at 4% right now.  I think its reasonable to assume the current % is a ceiling.  This is based on the assumption that there are not currently (maybe in the past) more deaths attributed to CV than the numbers represent.  I also assume that testing and reported cases is completely out of whack.  The assumption is that there are a ton of unreported cases, which eventually recover, then the numbers represent.

Data basis - if you look at the recovery rate, last I saw it was like 30%.  That number is saying that 70% of all serious cases result in death.  I don't believe that number passes the sniff test.

Anecdotally, we only read about people who want to get tested, but cant.  We also read about the accuracy of some testing (some accuracy at only 70%).  If we assume those people are actually infected, we have more recoveries.

In conclusion, if we assume there are a tremendous more amount of people getting infected, but also recovering, our 4% needs to go down.  I had originally though .5 based on the first studies I read, but my current opinion is that there are way to many people recovering that aren't in the data.  I think its reasonable that we see .1% based on an assumption that testing is tremendously flawed.
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I am always skeptical when the person crunching their own numbers doesn't know the difference between then and than.

 
Terminalxylem said:
I’m well aware. I work in a major hospital, and have never seen anything like this in my career. And we’re just starting to see an uptick in the number of cases.
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I had picked up on that in the course of the thread. Quoting your post may have made my post awkward.  Mine was meant as a PSA directed at all readers. Every medical article, tweet, post, etc. from those at the front of this mess is sending a clear and unified message that this is serious, fast, affecting younger people more than was noted in prior numbers, and quickly overwhelming hospitals.

 
Question about the stimulus- the language says that the benefit per child is $500, but it is for children 16 and under. My kid turned 17 last August. She has a job now, but did not in 2019, and did not file taxes. I did claim her as a dependent. Are we getting that $500, or no?

 
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