BobbyLayne
Footballguy
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
RI totals as of yesterday 3/29
Projections:
32 ICU beds needed
26 vents
Actual: (article link with Governor's report on 3/29 at 1 PM)
11 ICU beds needed
9 vents
Time to gear up and brave the world!From that article:
"Some members helped set up or remove folding chairs. A few helped themselves to mandarins that had been put out on a table in back."
Could it be airborne based on the act of singing? Sure.
Could it be the other things they were touching and the usual "humans are disgusting and touch their faces too much" causes we see everywhere else? Sure, and probably the more likely scenario.
Take a walk. Stay away from people and be smart.
1. You should be hoping so because you would be immune now.
2. I think we've had more FBGs make a statement that they think they got it Nov-Jan then confirmed cases in my state. To my knowledge, no FBGs died from this. Unless the virus mutated into a stronger version, it wasn't widespread in that timeframe. Yes it may have been around, but the odds are 1000 to 1 that you and everyone else had something else.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Ten people have died here now, nine residents and a spouse of one of the residents.
“It’s a war zone. I’ve never seen anything like it in all my years of nursing,” Sarah Gardiner, a nurse at Pinecrest, said through tears. “Here’s my fear: It’s going to wipe out the senior population in nursing homes across the country. If Pinecrest is any indication, this is just going to change things forever.”
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-covid-19-kills-nine-infects-34-staff-at-bobcaygeon-nursing-home/
hagmania
Footballguy
Have played D&D 6 nights among 4 different groups the past 14 days.
Also: Played Jackbox Party games 3 nights, played on boardgamearena 1 night
Used a combination of discord, Google Hangouts, Zoom.
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Anarchy99
Footballguy
I have heard a lot of people with similar stories, and while anything is possible, it's probably unlikely. The reason being, this thing spreads like hot cakes and at that point no one was trying to change their ways to prevent it. Had it been around in other places that early, hospitals would have been swarmed with cases way earlier. I just don't see how a mild version circulated for months and then it settles on China as a flashpoint. My wife is trying to convince me our high school son had it in the U.S. in October. The flu was bad this year . . . could easily have been the flu.
Keerock
Footballguy
Poke_4_Life
Footballguy
So I think I mentioned earlier in the thread that my wife and I have been taking this seriously for a while. We've been social distancing for 2.5 weeks now, we've stockpiled food and some meds, enough to make it a month if we try. However during all this time our 21yo daughter has been working (sandwich place, 'freaky fast') and hasn't really changed her lifestyle. She has her own apartment a few miles from us, and has been coming over fairly frequently for meals.
She's at the Dr. right now with 'flu-like' symptoms. I'm sure my wife will insist that she convalesce here. Daughter was last at our house Thursday evening for dinner.
I'm ####ed. FML. This sucks.
She's at the Dr. right now with 'flu-like' symptoms. I'm sure my wife will insist that she convalesce here. Daughter was last at our house Thursday evening for dinner.
I'm ####ed. FML. This sucks.
Doug B
Footballguy
E-Z Glider
Footballguy
Sorry to hear this. This is a microcosm of our society right now. Your social distancing efforts are only as strong as your weakest link. Best wishes.
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
Chemical X
Footballguy
i’ve been going to italy regularly for the last 10 years and always wind up getting sick, i wouldn’t read too much into this. long flight, airport exposure, different weather, etc. last may/june in italy i wound up in the ER for a nasty ear infection with cough i couldn’t shake while there, nearly a month. we looked at a lot of properties and the ventilation is awful, some had mold and all are damp like crazy. they smoke like fiends and live in close spaces.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I'm just saying you are putting yourself at risk taking a walk. Maybe a small risk, but one you would not have if you stayed home without visitors.
Doug B
Footballguy
Dunno ... can't recall the baby's age. Newborns can be 12-15 times a day until they start sleeping through the night. Maybe 5-6 times a day around the time they start walking (assuming no rotavirus or anything).
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
Do you know every time you breathe you are inhaling a molecule from Lincoln's last breath?
gianmarco
Footballguy
This isn't true. Can you stop posting this?
As long as you keep a safe distance (6 ft) from others, walking outside is safe.
proteus126
Footballguy
MD daily case growth rate coming down fast. 14% per today's numbers (MD reports daily at 1000 EST). Was 25%+ a few days back. Montgomery County shows similar, 14, 18, 25, etc. MD got serious 14 days ago (closing schools) and more serious 7 days ago (shuttering non-essential businesses). I'm taking this as very good news, and expect to see the growth rate further drop over this week. By and large, MD is "doing it right" (aside from that ##### in Hughesville). Decent leadership, solid medical system, populace taking it seriously. We'll do ok. Pardon the optimism. ;]
Caveats - the high growth rate prior to the past couple of days could be due to ramp-up in testing. Reduced growth rate the past two days could be due to the weekend effect, Tomorrow and Wednesday's numbers will be telling.
Caveats - the high growth rate prior to the past couple of days could be due to ramp-up in testing. Reduced growth rate the past two days could be due to the weekend effect, Tomorrow and Wednesday's numbers will be telling.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Antibodies would absolutely show. Viral load testing probably wouldn't.im really not keeping up on the news, so no idea what tests are being done now
regardless, not gonna do any testing, so that those who really need it arent being delayed. 3+mos later, probably wouldnt even show
otb_lifer
Footballguy
i mentioned this earlier in the thread, and mine reached back to mid-October, so i'm sure it was much too early.
BUT -
i have been hospitalized with pnuemonia 5 times in the past 26 years ... had partially collapsed lung in '05, which landed me in quarantine for 11 days, as they thought it was TB (turned out to be Aspergillosis - a mold spore invasion).
had plenty of bouts of bronchitis, as well - i'm a 2 pack a day smoker for 35+ years - great health/shape otherwise - workouts/cardio religiously.
anyway, this "bug" i caught in October was worse than any TWO previous bouts combined. breathing in was excruciating, involuntary gag jags galore, my coughing was the most violent i'd ever experienced.
fever up to 103 at it's onset, terrible congestion, worst i ever had ... went to my doc, the flu was ruled out, as was pnuemonia, but i was blowing an F-minus on the Spiromoter - tired as ####, was damn near narcoleptic - this #### beat the livin' piss outta me.
was told it was an upper respiratory, and prescribed antibiotic (Z-Pack) - i didn't take it, decided to ride it out.
lasted close to 10 days - fever finally abated by day 6 or so, but the lungs felt atrophied- again, i have had episodes in the past, they were cakewalks compared to this.
yeah, October, so much too early. i guess.
cosjobs
Footballguy
So walking through the five minute old airspace where someone coughed was misinformation?
I am not an alarmist and do not need people telling me what to post/not post.
If earlier info was accurate, a walk is not necessarily safe. And all those countries with good numbers througha strong quarantine should have been letting everyone have a nice, safe walk?
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Oh, I agree with that. Just saying if I have to choose between me going out and getting stuff/cooking it myself and me trusting some HS kid I don't know, I know which route I am going. I will take my chances elsewhere.
Also, since my wife and I are still working, I feel like we are both at a higher exposure rate than some are. I might be singing a different tune if I have been WFH for 2 weeks eating rice and beans.
Keerock
Footballguy
I feel you GB. My wife and I have been very strict/careful, but my son who lives with us is a DPT and brings home who-knows-what every day from work. We're screwed.
Coach Morris Buttermaker
Footballguy
You have a much greater chance of getting hit by a car on your walk. If you want to avoid COVID-19 and also getting run over by a car, then stay home.
Doug B
Footballguy
Combination of old long-standing habits and that the extra hand-washing making me falsely "bulletproof" against COVID. Yes, I know it's B.S. Still comforting all the same.
I think I posted in this thread hundreds of pages ago about my personal, headspace concepts of "dirty" and "clean" objects I encounter throughout daily life and how that influences my compulsion to handwash. All that personal stuff precedes COVID-19 by decades.
Note that this compulsion doesn't port over to all aspects of my life. Milk just turned a little sour in the fridge? Fine for coffee! That bacon is two weeks past expiration, but unopened? Fry it up! Block of parmesan got some mold on one corner? Cut off that corner and enjoy!
I also don't think wiping down groceries is necessary -- I'd rather use the "hot car" method. But I'm outvoted on that point in the household, so wipe down groceries, I have started doing.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Not really looking to argue.
Posting that it's not safe to walk outside is misinformation. It's not a recommendation anywhere. It's one of the few activities allowed most everywhere.
Getting outside is not only ok, it's encouraged. Just stay away from others while outside. So don't walk anywhere where there are large numbers of people congregating.
Your take that walking outside is risky is simply not true.
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Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Cough/sneeze droplets are long on the ground after 5 minutes, thanks to gravity.
Has there been new information that I may have missed that it's spread via aerosol particles?
cosjobs
Footballguy
I think you have done a great job in this thread and I appreciate your effort.
However, I think you are saying something with very low risk is actually no risk.
I saw a chart (from here I'm sure) showing the differences in controlling disease spread by: no measures, social distancing, and isolation. While social distancing dramatically lowered the rate, the difference between social distancing and isolation was just as dramatic.
I guess, from what I have read/know, a walk could be about as safe if you do not touch anything while out and do not walk anywhere someone else have traversed for the last five minutes.
Doug B
Footballguy
That wasn't ever information -- that was a situation that Capella brought up as an example.
Tell you what: if you walk through the exact same outdoor airspace where a COVID carrier coughed five minutes before ... you're safe. 100% totally safe. No chance of infection.
Think about it: Is the air outside still? No wind? Then the particles fall to the ground. And if it's a breezy day? Even a 5-mph wisp sends those virus particles far out of your way by the time five minutes pass. Much less 20-mph gusts.
cosjobs
Footballguy
I guess it depends how far you can walk in five minutes and are you able to look ahead that far.
moleculo
Footballguy
I don't know how anyone can say walking is fine. There are plenty of things you can trip over, you can sprain an ankle, you could brush up against poison ivy, you could be hit by a car, you could have a beetle fly into your ear. Walking is fraught with danger - especially if you try to do it while chewing gum.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Of course they are going to say they followed the rules. I highly doubt this was any different than a regular practice.
Doug B
Footballguy
Nathan R. Jessep
Footballguy
Well it goes back to aerosol vs droplet. Even if you are within the few-second timeframe when droplets are still hovering in your breathable altitude, that's when the 6-foot rule comes into play. I believe that was calculated to be the maximum droplet travel distance. @Doug B?
Doug B
Footballguy
I don't even think that "6 feet" is some hard limit. It's not like 5' 9" means "insta-infection!"
But yeah, 6 feet gives you some breathing room (tip your waitresses!) around a carrier. Droplets from coughs make it about "a few feet", as do a few stray droplets from sneezes into a hand or elbow.
Doug B
Footballguy
A little birdie told me we're getting a new one soon opening up somewhere in the New Orleans area. I think it's meant to be a temporary set-up at first as a trial run.
JaxBill
Footballguy
@OfficialJoelF: LATEST FLORIDA COVID-19 NUMBERS (as of 11 AM):
Total: 5,473 (5,276 residents; 197 non residents)
- Miami-Dade: 1,632
- Broward: 1,152
- Palm Beach: 423
- Monroe: 24
Total deaths: 63
ETA
@conarck: South Florida's COVID-19 surge continues as private lab testing backlog clears out. We are seeing results from several days ago now. The hope is we start to see the effects of social distancing in the next 5-10 days. @DavidJNeal
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241613456.html?utm_source=pushly&intcid=pushly_501404
Total: 5,473 (5,276 residents; 197 non residents)
- Miami-Dade: 1,632
- Broward: 1,152
- Palm Beach: 423
- Monroe: 24
Total deaths: 63
ETA
@conarck: South Florida's COVID-19 surge continues as private lab testing backlog clears out. We are seeing results from several days ago now. The hope is we start to see the effects of social distancing in the next 5-10 days. @DavidJNeal
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241613456.html?utm_source=pushly&intcid=pushly_501404
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gianmarco
Footballguy
Let me see if I can explain it differently that might make sense.
Social distancing vs isolation: Yes, isolation is superior.
But, that's because social distancing is imperfect. Social distancing (6 ft apart) helps reduce one major type of transmission. But it does nothing to eliminate contact with infected surfaces. So when we go out for essential shopping or come into contact with areas that others have as well, social distancing can't eliminate that. Isolation does because you've eliminated that mode of transmission.
However, if we completely eliminate any need for shopping or going anywhere where people are and simply allowed people to walk outside and keep 6 ft apart, it would be virtually identical to isolation.
Now, I'm not talking about everyone going to the same park and walking around at the same time. That's the problem for some and why certain parks and walkways have been closed. It's difficult for everyone to actually practice social distancing in that situation (and many don't), so those areas then get closed. It's why they are talking about closing certain streets in NYC to driving to allow people walking to keep a safe distance from others.
But if we eliminated all contact with the exception of everyone walking outside while keeping 6 ft apart from each other, this illness is gone in 14 days.
Fixating and worrying about this "5 minute cloud" of transmission is not the right focus. It's safe to walk. Just stay away from others when you do. You don't need a 5 minute buffer either.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Lagging indicator, though, as you are aware.Great news for new cases in Italy: 4,050 new cases. Clear strong trend downward.
Bad news for Italy is 812 deaths.
shader
Footballguy
pollardsvision
Footballguy
Italy also with 1590 new recoveries, biggest day yet.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
COVID-19 Drives Command Teams Charged With Homeland Defense Into Cheyenne Mountain Bunker
Another US military command and control element is also now isolated in a third, undisclosed location.
U.S. Northern Command has dispersed essential command and control teams to multiple hardened locations, including the famous Cheyenne Mountain bunker complex in Colorado, as well as another unspecified site, and is keeping them in isolation. The command took these steps to help ensure these personnel can continue to watch around the clock for potential threats to the U.S. homeland as the COVID-19 pandemiccontinues to expand across the country and around the world, including within the U.S. military.
U.S. Air Force General Terrence O’Shaughnessy, head of Northern Command (NORTHCOM), who also serves as the commanding officer of the U.S.-Canadian North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), detailed the changes during a virtual town hall on Facebook on Mar. 24, 2020. Under normal circumstances, the watch teams, which support both NORTHCOM and NORAD missions, would take shifts staffing a central command center at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado.
...
Cheyenne Mountain is a hardened command and control site, the bulk of which is located inside the mountain of same name, which is part of the Rocky Mountains' Front Range and is situated just outside of Colorado Springs. Between 1965 and 2006, the complex served as NORAD's primary command and control center. It was also home to U.S. Space Commandbetween 1985 and 2002. It has also been a central feature in, or otherwise referred to, in a wide array of popular media, perhaps most famously being a key setting in the 1983 film WarGames."
Another US military command and control element is also now isolated in a third, undisclosed location.
U.S. Northern Command has dispersed essential command and control teams to multiple hardened locations, including the famous Cheyenne Mountain bunker complex in Colorado, as well as another unspecified site, and is keeping them in isolation. The command took these steps to help ensure these personnel can continue to watch around the clock for potential threats to the U.S. homeland as the COVID-19 pandemiccontinues to expand across the country and around the world, including within the U.S. military.
U.S. Air Force General Terrence O’Shaughnessy, head of Northern Command (NORTHCOM), who also serves as the commanding officer of the U.S.-Canadian North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), detailed the changes during a virtual town hall on Facebook on Mar. 24, 2020. Under normal circumstances, the watch teams, which support both NORTHCOM and NORAD missions, would take shifts staffing a central command center at Peterson Air Force Base in Colorado.
...
Cheyenne Mountain is a hardened command and control site, the bulk of which is located inside the mountain of same name, which is part of the Rocky Mountains' Front Range and is situated just outside of Colorado Springs. Between 1965 and 2006, the complex served as NORAD's primary command and control center. It was also home to U.S. Space Commandbetween 1985 and 2002. It has also been a central feature in, or otherwise referred to, in a wide array of popular media, perhaps most famously being a key setting in the 1983 film WarGames."
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Insoxicated
Love this. Particularly given Italy didn't exactly handle quarantine/testing as strictly.. like us.
Shows a potential peek light at the end of the tunnel. Long way to go, but any light Is welcome right now.
Doug B
Footballguy
Good chance that the unspecified site is the Mount Weather Emergency Operations Center in the Blue Ridge Mountains west of D.C. There were once actually several hardened sites in a big arc throughout Virginia and North Carolina ... not sure how many of them are still being used.
rick6668
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
At risk of showing either my ignorance or pessimism: the day is far from over right? so we should expect that these are NOT the final number right? what am I missing that 20% fewer new cases than yesterday with 25%+ of the day still remaining is cause for celebration?Great news for new cases in Italy: 4,050 new cases. Clear strong trend downward.
Bad news for Italy is 812 deaths.
To be clear, I want to celebrate good news, just trying to understand why the above is seen that way. Thanks
AAABatteries
Footballguy
So you are saying I should cut back to 100? I've been going through hand soap and hand lotion like a ODC germaphobe.
Doug B
Footballguy
Check back in roughly 22 hours. I think Italy reports out once a day (at 5:00 p.m. local time, 11:00 a.m. EDT), whereas the USA numbers seem to be updated many times throughout the day as individual states deliver updates (Worldometers).
- Status
