*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (12 Viewers)

[encaitar]

I think that line of thinking is overly paranoid. No offense intended.

One thing sticks with me. Early on they were talking about how this virus hits mostly the elderly and those with comorbidities the hardest. Then this stat was thrown at me:

60% of Americans have one of these comorbidities. We are NOT a healthy people. 

And then you hear stories of young healthy active people being taken out.

Bottom line, you can't take your safety for granted. Yes you have a lower risk the younger and healthier you are, but it's still a risk.

Myself, I'm overweight. I don't exercise. My diet is pretty suspect. I don't sleep well. I have sleep apnea. I recently started BP meds. And I have borderline high cholesterol and pre-diabetes. I'm 46 years old. I don't want this crap. I'm not sure I trust my immune system to handle it properly.

For all I know though that typical cold I had at the end of February was Covid19. No reason at all to believe so but this virus is just plain weird.

I get your concern.  I'm concerned too.  My father is not healthy.  He has 3-4 conditions that would likely mean he wouldn't survive if he got this.  He's of course hunkered down at home with my mother and that's not likely to change anytime soon.  

Still, I think that accurate sampling statistics would help, not only the "young and healthy" that aren't likely to be at very high risk, but also those with conditions that are affected.

Knowing how badly this virus affects people with asthma would be very helpful.  Knowing how badly it affects those with high BP would be helpful.  Knowing how it affects those overweight or underweight would be helpful.  etc.....    We have to answer these type of medical history questions any time we go to the hospital with a sniffle.  Yet now we can't even get stats on these things in what is the worst pandemic in the world in 100 years.  It begs the question why.  Call it paranoid if you will, but I would like the stats.

 

[Navin Johnson]

Cases are directly related to the number of tests administered.   We aren't testing a significant portion of the population.   The actual number of cases is significantly greater than what is reported.   

Testing is sporadic at best in the United States.

Deaths are also being under reported but that number is significantly more useful.

That doesn't make it meaningless. 

 

[skol asylum]

I get your concern.  I'm concerned too.  My father is not healthy.  He has 3-4 conditions that would likely mean he wouldn't survive if he got this.  He's of course hunkered down at home with my mother and that's not likely to change anytime soon.  

Still, I think that accurate sampling statistics would help, not only the "young and healthy" that aren't likely to be at very high risk, but also those with conditions that are affected.

Knowing how badly this virus affects people with asthma would be very helpful.  Knowing how badly it affects those with high BP would be helpful.  Knowing how it affects those overweight or underweight would be helpful.  etc.....    We have to answer these type of medical history questions any time we go to the hospital with a sniffle.  Yet now we can't even get stats on these things in what is the worst pandemic in the world in 100 years.  It begs the question why.  Call it paranoid if you will, but I would like the stats.

I don't think it's intentional. I think healthcare in general is just behind the curve when it comes to technology and data mining and sharing. I've seen it first hand. We have alot of old outdated EHR systems out there. It's getting better but a long ways to go.

 

[skol asylum]

Guys, they just updated the model and it looks... better. Projected US deaths down to 81k.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/

US was like 93k or so before I think?

Here in AZ a big drop from a little over 1300 to 570 deaths projected.

ND with a little more than 1/10 the population and 100 more deaths projected. 

 

[Terminalxylem]

I joined this site over a decade ago and have been a lurker since then, I have not posted much on this site except for the past few months in this single thread.

I post on 2 other forums and this site was by far the most informative. In late January and through the end of February this was an extremely informative and helpful thread, possibly even the best thread on the internet that I have participated in. It was a driving factor that led me to prep in February a month ahead of everyone else which let the supply chain recover. This was excellent for me and also good for everyone else that lives around me.

Recently this thread seems to have taken a turn for the worse. There is more arguing than facts. I scroll through entire pages without seeing any new information. The thread goes extremely fast and it is possible that I am missing the good information now.

I am sorry if I am ranting, my expectations were set extremely high based on this thread a month ago and maybe I should now adjust my expectations to treat this thread like any other on the internet.

Sorry, I’ll try to improve the quality of my jokes.

 

[gianmarco]

When each state is expected to peak

 

[skol asylum]

I really hope these peaks and the corresponding drop are so sudden. A plateau at those levels would be no bueno.

 

[skol asylum]

For the IHME model I'd like to know something about the data. They show beds and vents needed by day and the beds available. I'm wondering if the needs are for Covid patients only and if the availability is for All patients or Covid patients only. Also would like to see vents available.

 

[skol asylum]

Just to back into something with this model.

It assumes that 97% of the population will not have been exposed to the virus by the end of the first wave.

That means 327,200,000 * .03 = 9,816,000 infected. 81,766 deaths = .83% mortality rate.

 

[Terminalxylem]

If you’re already worried about spread, this won’t help.

 

[TheWinz]

Comorbidity - the simultaneous presence of two chronic diseases or conditions in a patient

Anecdotal - not necessarily true or reliable, because based on personal accounts rather than facts or research

Pandemic - (of a disease) prevalent over a whole country or the world

Not all of us are geniuses, like Norman Einstein

 

[ProstheticRGK]

If you’re already worried about spread, this won’t help.

Yeah, my OCD did not need to see that. And you all laughed at Ham and his 21' radius.

@Mr. Ham we are counting on you to repopulate the earth once we all go up in a micro-droplet cloud.

 

[CurlyNight]

If you’re already worried about spread, this won’t help.

Makes me want to take my personal fan with me to the store to keep particulates away.. oy

 

[parasaurolophus]

If you’re already worried about spread, this won’t help.

"The risk of contamination through micro droplets becomes even greater in a closed space with poor ventilation."

Biogen. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

Wisconsin breaks down data by age group. 10 year brackets.

 

[skol asylum]

<——— Like my new mask?

 

[flapgreen]

Of course they've adjusted the models. And they'll keep adjusting them lower and never have to answer for being wrong about them every time. Things will move forward and no one will question it. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

Wisconsin breaks down data by age group. 10 year brackets.

Under 20 is 1% of cases. Thats crazy. 

 

[Dezbelief]

.

 

[Dezbelief]

.

 

[BassNBrew]

Wisconsin breaks down data by age group. 10 year brackets.

Supports my theory that we can send all 20-29 yo that don't have underlining conditions back to work.

 

[Navin Johnson]

Supports my theory that we can send all 20-29 yo that don't have underlining conditions back to work.

It's like you haven't even been paying attention the last month.

 

[msommer]

Most Swedish hospitals have stopped testing to give Chloroquine to COVID-19 patients as they are concerned with serious side effects, such as acute heart issues. Some will keep giving it to the most sick patients but overall use will be drastically curtailed. I can link to the article but it is in Danish

 

[skol asylum]

Most Swedish hospitals have stopped testing to give Chloroquine to COVID-19 patients as they are concerned with serious side effects, such as acute heart issues. Some will keep giving it to the most sick patients but overall use will be drastically curtailed. I can link to the article but it is in Danish

Next one up:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/04/04/hiv-drug-that-treats-coronavirus-moving-to-phase-2-trials/amp/

I know this one has already been talked about here. I imagine this news from a couple days ago was also already shared.

 

[JaxBill]

For the IHME model I'd like to know something about the data. They show beds and vents needed by day and the beds available. I'm wondering if the needs are for Covid patients only and if the availability is for All patients or Covid patients only. Also would like to see vents available.

And then there's this about the IHME model

@AlexBerenson: 1/ Fun fact: the @IHME_UW model estimates "health service utilization as a function of deaths." In other words, it decides how many people will die and then projects BACK to how many hospital or ICU beds will be needed on a given day...

@AlexBerenson: 2/ And, apparently, if reality of what is actually happening in hospital does not match the modeled estimate (the re-revised modeled estimate, I should say) - well, reality is wrong...

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

Most Swedish hospitals have stopped testing to give Chloroquine to COVID-19 patients as they are concerned with serious side effects, such as acute heart issues. Some will keep giving it to the most sick patients but overall use will be drastically curtailed. I can link to the article but it is in Danish

I have heard they prescribed this stuff to kids with Malaria.  If I couldn't breathe I'd risk the heart problems.  Hell, all the drugs they advertise on TV have a laundry list of side effects as well 

 

[JaxBill]

the other thing that looks wrong is the IHME data in their state level death graph.

Just looking at April 1 to 5 for Florida, none of the daily counts in the graph match the numbers that the state released for that day.

Their numbers for April 1 to April 5 for Florida are 2,77,6,45, and 45 (projected). By the time they released it April 5 had already been announced as 26. 

Today's projection isn't exactly helpful. it's slated for 54 deaths in FL...but leaves open the range of 17 to 130. 

 

[eoMMan]

Yes the chest tightness without congestion was unsettling.  Especially seeing how people had that and like in 2 hours time were in the ER.  

Anybody hear from culdeus?

Haven't seen posts from him in a little while. 

 

[Coach Morris Buttermaker]

I visit many sites, and I see many positive stories/articles about hydroxychloroquine. When I visit this site, its always people posting articles suggesting it is not a cure (very few positive stories on it). I almost feel like most on this thread are rooting against it, trying to find only the negative articles on it. Of course just my opinion.  I have no idea if the drug is a cure, but just a weird vibe when I come here.

 

[eoMMan]

I visit many sites, and I see many positive stories/articles about hydroxychloroquine. When I visit this site, its always people posting articles suggesting it is not a cure (very few positive stories on it). I almost feel like most on this thread are rooting against it, trying to find only the negative articles on it. Of course just my opinion.  I have no idea if the drug is a cure, but just a weird vibe when I come here.

Not familiar with your posts but solid user name. 

 

[PinkydaPimp]

I visit many sites, and I see many positive stories/articles about hydroxychloroquine. When I visit this site, its always people posting articles suggesting it is not a cure (very few positive stories on it). I almost feel like most on this thread are rooting against it, trying to find only the negative articles on it. Of course just my opinion.  I have no idea if the drug is a cure, but just a weird vibe when I come here.

Which sites do you visit?

 

[Punxsutawney Phil]

Someone sent me a funny meme with bill gates face on it.  "Self Proclaimed Virus Expert - every computer with his software has been infected since 1995"

 

[Doug B]

Under 20 is 1% of cases. Thats crazy. 

20-29 are 12% of cases, 5% of hospitalizations, 1% of deaths to date in Wisconsin.

 

[Drunken Cowboy]

Next one up:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/nypost.com/2020/04/04/hiv-drug-that-treats-coronavirus-moving-to-phase-2-trials/amp/

I know this one has already been talked about here. I imagine this news from a couple days ago was also already shared.

It sounds like it should be investigated for flu treatment as well.

 

[Doug B]

I visit many sites, and I see many positive stories/articles about hydroxychloroquine. When I visit this site, its always people posting articles suggesting it is not a cure (very few positive stories on it). I almost feel like most on this thread are rooting against it, trying to find only the negative articles on it. Of course just my opinion.  I have no idea if the drug is a cure, but just a weird vibe when I come here.

Standard of evidence in this thread is much higher than it is on the Internet at large. Something being written on a website does nothing to establish veracity.

 

[irish eyes]

I visit many sites, and I see many positive stories/articles about hydroxychloroquine. When I visit this site, its always people posting articles suggesting it is not a cure (very few positive stories on it). I almost feel like most on this thread are rooting against it, trying to find only the negative articles on it. Of course just my opinion.  I have no idea if the drug is a cure, but just a weird vibe when I come here.

You are spot on with this being a thread where people don't want any kind of positive news. Doom & gloom, doom & gloom.

 

[otb_lifer]

Officials on Sunday said police have charged a Rumson man, who hosted an impromptu Pink Floyd cover band concert on his front lawn with about 30 middle-aged adults in violation of state restrictions aimed at curbing the coronavirus pandemic.

“When our patrols arrived we were met by a group of approx. 30 "40-50" year old ADULTS on the front [lawn] attending an acoustic concert of Pink Floyd's greatest hits. (Some even brought lawn chairs),” the department said in a statement on Facebook.

Officers tried to break up the group by flashing their patrol car lights, but the band played on, authorities said. 

“When we informed everyone that they must leave--in accordance with Governor Murphy’s executive orders regarding these so called “corona-parties”--we were met with well wishes of “F-the police” and “Welcome to Nazi Germany” from this group of "40-50 year old ADULTS,” the police department’s statement added.

AYFKM?

good ####in' grief - that happens to be one of the wealthiest shore areas (Bon Jovi/Bruce) ... real buncha "rebels" 

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Am not a conspiracy theorist, but it feels to me that this data might be intentionally being withheld from us.  Specifically, I fear that it confirms that young people are largely unimpacted by this disease but the authorities (understandably) don't want to let that info out for fear of the behavioral impact from those under 30.  What little age data I have seen is grouped as 20-44, 45-59, 60+.  As a data nerd I can smell in that categorization that someone is trying to hide something.  No one puts 22 year olds in the same group as 42 year olds unless they have a motive. 

Anyway, am ranting now.  Thoughts? Anyone?  Am I missing something?  Am I crazy?

I've noticed the same thing with regards to age grouping, which does seem to be reported strangely.  But a simpler explanation is that this is a fast-moving story, the underlying data are suspect because of testing protocols, and most people are bad with numbers under the best of circumstances.  In other words, "don't assume malice when incompetence will suffice."

On the other hand, it would not surprise me if authorities were deliberately withholding more detailed information regarding co-morbidities and stuff like that.  People who work in this field seem to have preferences of the form "perfect information" > "no information" > "noisy information."  Whatever data we currently have regarding covid-19 definitely falls in the third category.

 

[shader]

You are spot on with this being a thread where people don't want any kind of positive news. Doom & gloom, doom & gloom.

Feel free to share any positive news that you find.  As long as it’s accurate, everyone here will enjoy it.

 

[DaVinci]

Makes me want to take my personal fan with me to the store to keep particulates away.. oy

Get one of these.

 

[DaVinci]

.

.

Stop spreading microdroplets! 

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I'm not reading an article that says that case counts are meaningless, when I know they aren't. 

Case counts aren't perfect, the method has flaws, some countries are better than others, in some countries they ARE meaningless.....but they do have value, thus they aren't meaningless.  

Take them with a grain of salt if you must, but let's not float the absurd idea out there that there's no value in reporting case counts.

Excellent example of the confirmation bias in action. Thanks. 

 

[gianmarco]

So frustrating

 

[DaVinci]

Chinese pack tourist sites after lockdown lifted

 

[NorvilleBarnes]

My company makes restaurant equipment and supplies cafeterias in hospitals and assisted living facilities. One of the industrial toasters was retrofitted with UV lights to make a sort of sanitizing conveyor belt for N95 masks for hospitals.

 

[Ilov80s]

My company makes restaurant equipment and supplies cafeterias in hospitals and assisted living facilities. One of the industrial toasters was retrofitted with UV lights to make a sort of sanitizing conveyor belt for N95 masks for hospitals.

My wife's company makes industrial water heating systems and is starting to make mobile units for pop-up hospitals. 

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Are n95 masks at all reusable?

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

The Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem has been closed for the first time since 1349.

 

[the moops]

Outdoors, you're more likely to get hit by a car than getting Covid while jogging past someone.

This is very likely true, but with all of these things, the missed point is that contracting Covid is not just about yourself.

You get hit by a car, you don't spread that splattering onto your family or neighbors. Good chance you do spread the coronavirus to your wife/kids/parents though

 

[rockaction]

good ####in' grief - that happens to be one of the wealthiest shore areas (Bon Jovi/Bruce) ... real buncha "rebels" 

Stay outta my beach community, Lebowski.