*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (14 Viewers)

[James Daulton]

So the very results of the massive mitigate efforts put in place, lower than modeled deaths and infection, is what the open the country back up crowd is going to use to support their argument?

Am I in bizarro world?

I give people a wide birth when walking past them on the street.  Even with an "opened" country, very few people will be choosing to co-mingle in close contact with strangers until a vaccine is found.  Movie theaters, restaurants, sporting events, malls, these will be ghost towns.  Opening up the country will not fix the economy.  Only a vaccine will. 

 

[moleculo]

Engineer: i have never seen a bridge like this before. Have zero experience, but based on other bridges I have seen i am going to assume this bridge will collapse so all traffic should be shut down. I realize there are tons of bridges like this in other countries where the real damage to them is being caused by semi trucks and equipment haulers and the data supports that, but I just dont agree with that and hey, i am an engineer so when I say close down all traffic, even foot traffic you better listen to me! 

Actually, he's been the head of bridge inspection since 1984 and had zero failed bridges under his watch.   He has some fairly sophisticated computer simulations showing how the bridge will fail.  He has measured and closely monitored all of the cracks, and he has taken detailed metallurgy samples. 

He has been closely monitoring the traffic on this and other failing bridges.  Based on his training, experience, and expertise, he is more than competent at making valid projections.

If (when) the bridge collapses, not only will people die when it happens, but we will have no economy for years, not weeks.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Engineer: i have never seen a bridge like this before. Have zero experience, but based on other bridges I have seen i am going to assume this bridge will collapse so all traffic should be shut down. I realize there are tons of bridges like this in other countries where the real damage to them is being caused by semi trucks and equipment haulers and the data supports that, but I just dont agree with that and hey, i am an engineer so when I say close down all traffic, even foot traffic you better listen to me! 

Structural and forensic engineering doesn't work that way. 

 

[comfortably numb]

Now you guys are arguing about hypothetical anologies?

 

[Politician Spock]

Engineer: i have never seen a bridge like this before. Have zero experience, but based on other bridges I have seen i am going to assume this bridge will collapse so all traffic should be shut down. I realize there are tons of bridges like this in other countries where the real damage to them is being caused by semi trucks and equipment haulers and the data supports that, but I just dont agree with that and hey, i am an engineer so when I say close down all traffic, even foot traffic you better listen to me! 

New York City Engineer: Um... yeah.... I don't need to look at other countries. This type of bridge has already killed a higher percentage of our city's population than it has in any other country in the world. 

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Now you guys are arguing about hypothetical anologies?

They don't even compare, so the analogy is corrupt from the start.

 

[Statorama]

Engineer: based on my inspections and analysis, this bridge may collapse.  I reccomend shutting it down for 2 weeks and repairing it.

Politician: wow, shutting the bridge down will put a real strain on our economy. Besides, this bridge had stood for 50 years already; my instincts say its good for 50 more.

Upon further investigation 10 other engineers disagree and it's found that the original engineers brother has the bridge repair contract for that municipality.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Just making a joke here, but how is that supposed to read?  Is that wife 1 out of 2, or is it half the wife, ... please help here 

LOL.   Poor writing by me.  It was supposed to be "the wife half of the couple."  That was funny, and I needed a good laugh this weekend.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

I give people a wide birth when waling past them on the street.  

Delivering babies and delivering beat-downs one street at a time.

 

[RUSF18]

Instead of all these analogies maybe just read the NYT article showing emails from all levels of government over the past few months which showed we knew exactly how things were going to play out here and how we still ignored every warning and were woefully unprepared for this?

 

[otb_lifer]

Delivering babies and delivering beat-downs one street at a time.

you just gave berth to a brilliant post 

 

[Uruk-Hai]

A coworker's stepdaughter was a waitress at a restaurant and got laid off several weeks ago. She had just bought a new car. Her loan is with a credit union (Navy Federal, I think he told me). She called them the other day for relief options and they moved her next 3 payments to the end of her loan - not a balloon at the end, but 3 more months at the end.

 

[Kal El]

Instead of all these analogies maybe just read the NYT article showing emails from all levels of government over the past few months which showed we knew exactly how things were going to play out here and how we still ignored every warning and were woefully unprepared for this?

And miss this riveting conversation?

I kid, of course, but clearly people are going stir crazy.

 

[BassNBrew]

Same way they all voted for Gary Johnson.

I actually did

Because football is played in Nov-Jan, but not in Mar-Apr.

DUH!!!!

Now it makes sense

If it makes you feel better I’ve had a low grade fever since Wednesday 

And the viral respiratory infection which kicked my butt for most of October was NOT Covid 19

I hope you feel better soon

 

[parasaurolophus]

Structural and forensic engineering doesn't work that way. 

So they dont ignore data? 

New York City Engineer: Um... yeah.... I don't need to look at other countries. This type of bridge has already killed a higher percentage our our city's population than it has in any other country in the world. 

Because we keep letting semis drive over them. 

 

[Statorama]

There are very few things I disagree with more than the above post.

The modern push to disregard expertise and data in lieu of personal "instinct" is the weirdest thing about modern America.  Its really weird.  There is nothing special about your instinct that allows you to know if Dr. Fauci is full or it.

I'm not saying follow him blindly.  Be skeptical.  Be skeptical of EVERYTHING and EVERYONE.  But, if experts have data, and other experts agree that the data is legit, and the decision falls within someone's expertise, a smart man would go with it.

If one expert says 14 months and another says 5, the prudent thing to do is examine why there is a difference.  What assumptions are being made, what their underlying models are, what kind of biases they may have, what the rest of the scientific community says, etc.

You claimed that trusting Fauci is lazy...i say its lazy to not trust him because your instincts say so.  If you can find compelling data-driven counter arguments, that's when you can have a legitimate debate.

If we cound just trust instincts, there would be no need for science at all.  If my instincts told me that if I build ccx an engine a certain way, it would work...therefore no need for research or testing.  If my instincts told me I can mix two chemicals and get a particular reaction, there would be no reason to experiment.  No, "trusting your instincts" is the exact opposite of science.

There is definitely a disconnect between what I'm posting and how it's being interpreted.  I'm not advocating trusting your instincts absent data and expert opinion.  It's just that when you analyze the data and expert opinion, when the experts have different takes use your intelligence (instincts) on which expert opinion to trust.

I'm amazed that wanting to review more data and hear from more experts in order to get a more holistic view is thought to be the untenable position.

 

[Politician Spock]

So the very results of the massive mitigate efforts put in place, lower than modeled deaths and infection, is what the open the country back up crowd is going to use to support their argument?

Am I in bizarro world?

I give people a wide birth when walking past them on the street.  Even with an "opened" country, very few people will be choosing to co-mingle in close contact with strangers until a vaccine is found.  Movie theaters, restaurants, sporting events, malls, these will be ghost towns.  Opening up the country will not fix the economy.  Only a vaccine will. 

Given I agree with the bolded, I'm getting to the point that if people are so passionate about getting back to work, then just let them. From what I've heard, quitting do to fear of COVID-19 is now a reason that qualifies for unemployment, so no one who doesn't share the passion of their employer isn't being forced into harms way.

But I would like some new law that says those that do choose to reopen cannot get insurance claims or government assistance for their hospitalization if they live through it. The rest of us should not have to pay financially for the foolish risk they are willing to take. 

 

[Uruk-Hai]

So they dont ignore data? 

No. They already have known data from design to failure to repair. 

 

[Statorama]

Don't know if it's been shared...

We now have an antibody test that is automated and give results in minutes.

This test detects both early marker and late marker, IgM/IgG antibodies in human finger-##### (capillary) or venous whole blood, serum, and plasma samples.

It can be used for rapid screening of carriers of the virus that are symptomatic or asymptomatic. Recent studies suggest that a high percentage of patients show no clinical symptoms of the virus, thus screening patients is vitally important. The test is ideally suited for hospitals, clinics and test laboratories. The test can also be effectively deployed in businesses, schools, airports, seaports and train stations, etc., giving it the potential to become a compelling force in the fight against this global threat.

The IgM antibody is an early indicator. The IgG is the late protective antibody.

 

[Politician Spock]

And miss this riveting conversation?

I kid, of course, but clearly people are going stir crazy.

When people's arguments are relying heavily on instincts and passions, crazy is soon to follow. 

 

[moleculo]

Upon further investigation 10 other engineers disagree and it's found that the original engineers brother has the bridge repair contract for that municipality.

Lol....I can do this all day.  It turns out those 10 other engineers have degrees in electrical engineering and don't know a damn thing about bridges.  Highly respected in their field to be sure but bridges and circuits don't have much in common.

As fo the original engineer? Yeah, his brother owns the company because they happen to be the world-wide expert in bridge repair.

 

[BobbyLayne]

I hope you feel better soon

Thanks! Feeling great, but have had what I call “night sweats” for several days - wake up with beads of sweat all over. No other symptoms but consulted a nurse on Friday to be safe. But slept great last night, might be gone.

Surreal times - every little cough or feeling-not-your-best makes your mind go to bad places. 

 

[CR69]

I've got an idea. How about we trash the last ten pages and you guys can start a new thread discussing when the virus came to the US. Then, everyone who wants to talk about it can go over there and leave this thread for discussion that actually matters. 

 

[otb_lifer]

If it makes you feel better I’ve had a low grade fever since Wednesday 

And the viral respiratory infection which kicked my butt for most of October was NOT Covid 19

i had similar, Layne ... mine was the nastiest #### to ever hit me - and i've been hospitalized 5 times with pneumonia over the past 25+ years, even once in quaratine for 12 days ('05) with atelectasis that was so painful i buckled every time i coughed (which was roughly every 30 seconds for 2 straight weeks).

none of those previous episodes compared to October's ### kicking ... i had it from the 12th to the 23rd, as per my records. 

i was working my Queens (Kew Gardens/Rego Park/Flushing/Jamaica/South Ozone) and Brooklyn (ENY/Flatlands/Sheepshead/Canarsie) client calls specifically around the time of onset - you anywhere near those vicinities for work or home?

anyway ... doc ruled out flu, said it was upper resp - was killer.  

 

[parasaurolophus]

We are still letting people over 65 go to work in retail stores. Literally allowing the most likely to die, spread, contract, be hospitalized, etc have all sorts of contact every day. 

But go to nextdoor and you will see people acting like it is a national crisis because they saw kids playing tennis. 

 

[Statorama]

Good news!

Boris Johnson discharged from hospital

 

[BassNBrew]

Good news!

Boris Johnson discharged from hospital

Leronlimab?

 

[Kal El]

When people's arguments are relying heavily on instincts and passions, crazy is soon to follow. 

True. I also made a bridge building pun(using "riveting"), and nobody got it! That's how far we've gone down this rabbit hole.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

There is definitely a disconnect between what I'm posting and how it's being interpreted.  I'm not advocating trusting your instincts absent data and expert opinion.  It's just that when you analyze the data and expert opinion, when the experts have different takes use your intelligence (instincts) on which expert opinion to trust.

I'm amazed that wanting to review more data and hear from more experts in order to get a more holistic view is thought to be the untenable position.

They understand what you were saying this but it's simply about pick, poke, attack. Anything that doesn't line up with what they want to hear, they spin ridiculous assertions out of what is posted in black and white. Find a phrase like "trust your instincts" and bastardize it with a new meaning they assign to you. And then the pile on begins. Rinse, wash, repeat.

Last night I had a guy chasing me around saying I was misinterpreting my own post.      That post - a link shared stating when Czech Republic started opening businesses and when the least essential would be opening. It was about as straightforward as it gets. I didn't dream up the facts or dates in the articles, they were there for all to see.

 

[moleculo]

True. I also made a bridge building pun(using "riveting"), and nobody got it! That's how far we've gone down this rabbit hole.

I got it but am not clever enough to come back with a witty retort.

 

[the moops]

We are still letting people over 65 go to work in retail stores. Literally allowing the most likely to die, spread, contract, be hospitalized, etc have all sorts of contact every day. 

And this is dumb. I think you wil find that most people who agree with the shutdown, would also agree that these people should not be working 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

When people's arguments are relying heavily on instincts and passions, crazy is soon to follow. 

When people gobble up narrow, singular viewpoints, misplaced assumptions, and the spread of misinformation it drives people to fall in line behind a desired narrative.

See how easy that is.

This kind of thing went on for hours last night right under the nose of this board's owner and its moderators and not a damn thing done about. Speaking for others with ridiculous assertions, assigning new meaning to their words, belittling, poking at their intelligence, calling them crazy like you just did etc.

I won't hold my breath waiting for anything to be done about it.

 

[Kal El]

I got it but am not clever enough to come back with a witty retort.

I get one about every few weeks or so. That was it until probably Memorial Day for me.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Don't know if it's been shared...

We now have an antibody test that is automated and give results in minutes.

The IgM antibody is an early indicator. The IgG is the late protective antibody.

This and similar tests are the key to everything

eta:  short of a vaccine obviously

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Sure as long as I'm not attacked for repeating myself. South Korea and Taiwan have been lauded for targeted responses and testing. And Czech Republic and Austria have been lauded for short term shutdowns combined with embracing the use of masks in public.

I'm not 100% sure what the point was on South Korea, but they appear to have been (and continue to be) far more extreme and restrictive than us.

This is from yesterday:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-south-korea-crackdown-self-quarantine-wristband-forced

 

[moleculo]

They understand what you were saying this but it's simply about pick, poke, attack. Anything that doesn't line up with what they want to hear, they spin ridiculous assertions out of what is posted in black and white. Find a phrase like "trust your instincts" and bastardize it with a new meaning they assign to you. And then the pile on begins. Rinse, wash, repeat.

Last night I had a guy chasing me around saying I was misinterpreting my own post.      That post - a link shared stating when Czech Republic started opening businesses and when the least essential would be opening. It was about as straightforward as it gets. I didn't dream up the facts or dates in the articles, they were there for all to see.

No.  Rejection of expert opinion is a pet peeve of mine (trying really hard not to get political here).  Making decisions with data is something i am very passionate about - its what my whole career is based on. Sometimes the data isn't there, and its rarely perfect but i always insist on data.

Fouci may be wrong.  I'm not saying he's infallible.  But he has data and models on his side - if you want to claim something different, i need something better than instinct or unfinished studies.  If other experts have different guidance, the proper thing to do is dig into the analysis and understand why they diverge - what assumptions are being made, etc.

This isn't about what i want to hear.  Believe me, i want this to be over too.  I want the Stanford guy to be right.  But i worry about decision making processes that reinforce what i want to hear.  

 

[Politician Spock]

When people gobble up narrow, singular viewpoints, misplaced assumptions, and the spread of misinformation it drives people to fall in line behind a desired narrative.

See how easy that is.

This kind of thing went on for hours last night right under the nose of this board's owner and its moderators and not a damn thing done about. Speaking for others with ridiculous assertions, assigning new meaning to their words, belittling, poking at their intelligence, calling them crazy like you just did etc.

I won't hold my breath waiting for anything to be done about it.

I agree with the bolded. How that applies to those who don't think we are ready to reopen the economy escapes me though. It's a very rational, data driven, and scientifically supported position to be very cautious about reopening the economy just yet.

 

[Mr Anonymous]

I'm not 100% sure what the point was on South Korea, but they appear to have been (and continue to be) far more extreme and restrictive than us.

This is from yesterday:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/coronavirus-south-korea-crackdown-self-quarantine-wristband-forced

It wasn't about being restrictive. The discussion was about being more intelligent about response than a blanket shut down with massive collateral damage.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

No.  Rejection of expert opinion is a pet peeve of mine (trying really hard not to get political here).  Making decisions with data is something i am very passionate about - its what my whole career is based on. Sometimes the data isn't there, and its rarely perfect but i always insist on data.

Fouci may be wrong.  I'm not saying he's infallible.  But he has data and models on his side - if you want to claim something different, i need something better than instinct or unfinished studies.  If other experts have different guidance, the proper thing to do is dig into the analysis and understand why they diverge - what assumptions are being made, etc.

This isn't about what i want to hear.  Believe me, i want this to be over too.  I want the Stanford guy to be right.  But i worry about decision making processes that reinforce what i want to hear.  

Spot on.  Couldn't have written this any better.   My entire career is based on cleaning up the missteps of others who made really bad decisions with cascading damage.....due to either unwillingness to use data or ignorance of data to make decisions.   The best businesses I've been exposed to over 20+ years use hard core data to make key decisions.  The worst businesses I've been exposed to are the opposite.

 

[mr roboto]

There is definitely a disconnect between what I'm posting and how it's being interpreted.  I'm not advocating trusting your instincts absent data and expert opinion.  It's just that when you analyze the data and expert opinion, when the experts have different takes use your intelligence (instincts) on which expert opinion to trust.

I'm amazed that wanting to review more data and hear from more experts in order to get a more holistic view is thought to be the untenable position.

If the goal is truthfully to listen to a wide range of perspectives and data sources and come up with an informed opinion based on the facts of the case then there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.

unfortunately, in our current climate, there are many people who deny scientific and statistical truths by saying “well there are other sources that disagree so who knows“.  It seems like there’s a certain side of the political spectrum now that really wants this to be less bad than it really is and I’m not claiming you’re on that side or that you represent that perspective.  

For the last few years this idea that there are two competing sets of truth, not just interpretations, has led us as a nation to be completely unable to come to an agreement around a common set of assumptions even when it comes to something that’s based in science and fact and something that could potentially end of society as we know it.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

It wasn't about being restrictive. The discussion was about being more intelligent about response than a blanket shut down with massive collateral damages.

Ok.   Thanks.  I've caught up on like 8-9 pages this morning, and candidly, the thread drifted a bit over that timeframe. 

 

[Mr Anonymous]

No.  Rejection of expert opinion is a pet peeve of mine (trying really hard not to get political here).  Making decisions with data is something i am very passionate about - its what my whole career is based on. Sometimes the data isn't there, and its rarely perfect but i always insist on data.

Fouci may be wrong.  I'm not saying he's infallible.  But he has data and models on his side - if you want to claim something different, i need something better than instinct or unfinished studies.  If other experts have different guidance, the proper thing to do is dig into the analysis and understand why they diverge - what assumptions are being made, etc.

This isn't about what i want to hear.  Believe me, i want this to be over too.  I want the Stanford guy to be right.  But i worry about decision making processes that reinforce what i want to hear.  

You say this at the same time you reject expert opinion stemming from the other viewpoint.

And Fauci has been wrong numerous times along the way with this virus. That's not said to discredit Fauci. To the contrary, it's to illustrate how much bad info has been out there. And it also should open eyes about the possibility that much of what we're still working off of could be very wrong.

 

[Statorama]

If the goal is truthfully to listen to a wide range of perspectives and data sources and come up with an informed opinion based on the facts of the case then there’s absolutely nothing wrong with that.

unfortunately, in our current climate, there are many people who deny scientific and statistical truths by saying “well there are other sources that disagree so who knows“.  It seems like there’s a certain side of the political spectrum now that really wants this to be less bad than it really is and I’m not claiming you’re on that side or that you represent that perspective.  

For the last few years this idea that there are two competing sets of truth, not just interpretations, has led us as a nation to be completely unable to come to an agreement around a common set of assumptions even when it comes to something that’s based in science and fact and something that could potentially end of society as we know it.

Understood, and well stated.

 

[moleculo]

It wasn't about being restrictive. The discussion was about being more intelligent about response than a blanket shut down with massive collateral damages.

By the way, i support a more intelligent, focused approach 100%.  IMO, that requires testing at levels much, much higher than we have now.  If you could go to a drive - thru and have results in 15 minutes, for example, we could really get some things done.  Also, if we could ensure anyone infected was put of circulation, that would really help too.

We aren't there, not yet.

 

[moleculo]

You say this at the same time you reject expert opinion stemming from the other viewpoint.

And Fauci has been wrong numerous times along the way with this virus. That's not said to discredit Fauci. To the contrary, it's to illustrate how much bad info has been out there. And it also should open eyes about the possibility that much of what we're still working off of could be very wrong.

I absolutely am not.   I will gladly assimilate new viewpoints.  That's how this works.  That's how all science works.

I said yesterday that i am completely open to the concept that this has been here since November but that has not been proven....in fact, there is credible evidence that it absolutely has not been here since November (which i tagged you on several times last night and you have yet to comment on).  

Show me antibody studies and i will believe the November theory.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

You say this at the same time you reject expert opinion stemming from the other viewpoint.

And Fauci has been wrong numerous times along the way with this virus. That's not said to discredit Fauci. To the contrary, it's to illustrate how much bad info has been out there. And it also should open eyes about the possibility that much of what we're still working off of could be very wrong.

I don't think that's fair.   People are rejecting "other hypotheses" from a contrarian viewpoint -- but those hypotheses have basically zero data and close to no evidence that supports them yet.   Many folks in here will gladly accept alternative hypotheses that become "proven" with facts/data.  It's unfair for you to assume that....just because people haven't accepted the contrarian views yet.....they never will.

Not to be argumentative, but rather to understand your point better.....what specifically has Fauci been wrong about?

 

[mr roboto]

You say this at the same time you reject expert opinion stemming from the other viewpoint.

And Fauci has been wrong numerous times along the way with this virus. That's not said to discredit Fauci. To the contrary, it's to illustrate how much bad info has been out there. And it also should open eyes about the possibility that much of what we're still working off of could be very wrong.

There’s not a lot of “bad information“. There’s a lot of incomplete data. We’ve never encountered this virus before, and we’ve never had a more internationally connected world than we do right now. So any predictive model has a 90% chance of being wrong at the end. Because we are trying to predict something that we’ve never lived through with a virus that we’ve never seen it’s behavior.

I would also reject the idea that there are two different viewpoints on this.  I would hope everybody has the same viewpoint: that we should find a way to stem the unmitigated spread of the virus and also try to find a way to open up some sort of economic activity until we have a vaccine or can absolutely control using testing and isolation and contact tracing.

it’s clear that social distancing and stay at home orders are effective especially for countries that have not ramped up their testing capacities or cannot control their population through electronic monitoring.  It’s also clear that this is an unsustainable solution long-term for the economy.  I don’t think anybody can disagree with those two points and if anybody does try to disagree with either of those two points I am completely willing to write them off as not intelligent enough to be worth having a conversation with. 
 

I am hopeful as you are that we can come up with a program of mask wearing, social distancing and reducing crowd sizes that could be a way to open up many local businesses and allow people to get back to work but I’m not sure there’s any proof that any country has done that successfully yet.

 

[JAA]

I’ve heard the bolded mentioned a number of times, yet I’ve not yet seen any data on it. Do you have any data or is this just speculation?

https://pittsburgh.cbslocal.com/2020/04/06/duquesne-food-bank-giveaway/

https://www.expressnews.com/news/local/article/S-A-Food-Bank-giveaway-draws-a-queue-of-cars-15178372.php

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8193153/Miles-long-row-cars-waits-outside-Florida-food-bank-demand-produce-surges-600-cent.html

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-05/coronavirus-crisis-suicide-hotline-mental-health-counselor

https://abc7chicago.com/coronavirus-in-us-suicide-prevention-covid-19-pandemic-mental-health/6063673/

https://www.wcax.com/content/news/Coronavirus-crisis-may-be-linked-to-increase-in-suicides-in-Vermont-569415451.html

https://www.rochesterfirst.com/health-2/district-attorney-points-to-uptick-in-overdose-numbers/

https://www.hudsonvalley360.com/news/publicservicenews/overdoses-increase-in-columbia-county/article_744403ef-24a8-5dc3-aefd-e88c39a951b4.html

https://www.wivb.com/news/niagara-county-is-experiencing-increase-in-drug-overdose-calls-amid-covid-19-pandemic/

https://www.wpr.org/milwaukee-county-pace-record-number-fatal-drug-overdoses

https://www.ktvu.com/news/san-francisco-secures-housing-for-domestic-violence-survivors-amid-uptick-in-reports

https://turnto10.com/news/local/rhode-island-state-pd-increase-in-domestic-911-calls

https://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/duval-county/domestic-violence-rise-jacksonville-during-covid-19-pandemic/V2XZSXHI7VFCROEWPTQHXYPV7M/

https://www.abc27.com/community/domestic-violence-sexual-abuse-cases-increase-during-pandemic-with-victims-isolated-behind-closed-doors/

https://www.kob.com/albuquerque-news/bernalillo-county-reports-increase-in-domestic-violence-calls/5696766/

I could go on. Shall I cover all 50 states?

Hi Mr A - thank you for sharing. I read every one of these links.

I do not want to discount the articles you have sent. There is data in articles, but I wouldn’t think someone could generate significant conclusions from it. 

For example, what is your point about the food bank line?  There is a huge rise in unemployment, of course there will be more people needing help. What was funny about the article is that they mentioned the person getting social security. That’s fixed income, in that case they aren’t getting any less money due to CV. So that was odd. 

Regarding the domestic issues, the article even said that conclusions couldn’t be drawn YoY due to potential seasonal differences.  The PA analysis was interesting in how it compared data to the 2008 recession. However, is this really what you want to base your subjective, and dare I say inflammatory, statements off of?

I mean, some of your data shows ~50% reduction in misdemeanors and felonies and a less increase in domestic.  What is your point with sharing the data you did? I could make an argument that your data helps to negate your assertions. Wouldn’t you agree that’s reasonable?

Regardless, thank you for sharing. 

 

[Nathan R. Jessep]

A few points:

1. While it’s true doctors will often say “it’s just a virus” when they have no definitive diagnosis, it isn’t just because they’ve tested everything they know and come up with nothing. There are panels which check many respiratory viruses in addition to the flu, but they are rarely ordered. Why? They are prohibitively expensive, won’t change management (there aren’t antivirals for most viruses) and are pretty unpleasant for the test recipient.

2. Your experience with influenza varies according to the strain - don’t assume every flu will manifest the same. The more likely symptoms overlap quite a bit with COVID-19, but none are specific enough to distinguish one from the other.

3. It’s possible some of these unknown influenza-like illnesses were indeed COVID-19, but if it had been really circulating several months earlier than we’ve been led to believe, we’d surely see a big uptick in deaths due to ARDS/pneumonia of unclear etiology as well. The only mysterious respiratory illnesses I’ve heard about recently were associated with vaping, involving a very different demographic than C-19.

Regarding #1, I posted this several weeks ago after a discussion with a local doctor friend when we still had no cases and no commercial labs were doing testing here yet in my local area.  They showed me a result of one of the respiratory screenings (minus HIPPA restricted info, of course) so I was asking questions about it and about how often they had something that didn't show up on that screening, which identified several flu strains, pneumonias and the older coronavirus strains (3 of them, IIRC). Their reply was "honestly, we don't use it very often because it's expensive and most insurances don't cover it."  They did indicate, though, that if you had one of the old coronavirus strains (pre-COVID), you were told it's "just a virus."

To be fair, that test only looks for acute infection, and would not exclude the possibility of immunity from prior infection.

I think the better argument is absence of an earlier spike in severe pneumonia/ARDS. But the Stanford herd immunity guy is taking huge liberties in assuming 50-70% of CA 40 million have been infected to achieve herd immunity, when we’re nowhere near that number after several months testing worldwide.

Yes, thanks, I actually meant to include that point in my post. I was thinking it but it didn't make it from brain to keyboard. 

My whole point isn't to ignore the data, it's that you demand all the data.  Granted, it's a lot safer to say "well, Dr Fauci says we have to shut down for 14 months, I guess we have to shut down for 14 months.....and anyone that disagrees must be "anti-science"". I just think people deserve (and should demand) more.

I think others may have chimed in on this, as I'm catching up from yesterday evening (so, like 30 pages worth  ) but I think it's worth mentioning that Fauci is not just making decisions based on his own opinion. I'm confident that he has surrounded himself with the very best doctors, data analysts, epidemiologists etc. to formulate his own team of trusted experts, which in turn formulate his opinions. THAT is why I trust his opinion. Is he (i.e. his team) going to be right 100% of the time? No, but I personally like the odds of listening to that team of experts.  

 

[Mr Anonymous]

It's somewhat amazing how close we all are to agreeing with one another. The differences aren't all that great. I don't want to belabor things further on a Sunday, Easter no less, when the subtleties just aren't that significant. All I've ever passionately disagreed with were comments that this shutdown should last for months even years if that's what it took (Yes, that point was made). Shutting down for an extended period of time as a singular option is a complete and total non option unless we want to destroy more lives that this virus is capable of. The mortality rate of hunger, poverty, inability to afford health care, heightened drug use, depression, and domestic abuse combine to dwarf the mortality rate of Covid-19. There are simply smarter ways, and I think everyone can agree with that. The shutdown had a role in the response and I've even lauded places that utilized them for a period of time. But a shutdown is a simpleton response to a complex problem. And they can't go on for very long without the unintended consequences exceeding the original problem. The U.S. simply must move on to the next more intelligent targeted responses very soon. No, we're not ready - not ready to open up and send people back to work WITHOUT replacement measures to counteract what would be uncontrolled spread. None of us are going to be heard here and have those better solutions reach the ears of our leaders. But the smart, more directed, non-societal collapsing ideas are out there, and we all have to hope they're embraced. And soon.