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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (7 Viewers)

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A lot of financial talk in here but I have a more medical/scientific question.  @gianmarco and other medical folks - I keep hearing this about longer exposure or more exposure.  I think I'm like most non-medical folks and look at this like it is binary.  I either get COVID or I don't.  Are the people who are dying that are younger ones that get extreme exposure or have underlying health issues?  More directly, my son still goes to work almost daily at a grocery store so he's exposed by I'm trying to understand our level of risk when he comes home.  I get the risk if I go shopping but with him coming home are we basically ok as long as we keep our distance from him?  I hate the idea that he has to go out and come home but happy that he's young and healthy and working to help others.  I'm just trying to gauge how concerned I should be.
There's a post earlier on by @Terminalxylem about how infection has various factors that contribute to the illness you can get when exposed. The amount of virus you get exposed to (think of it as a dose) matters. Think of it as the difference between someone with active infection coughing directly into your face vs someone with only a few viral particles leaving some on a door handle that you then touch and expose yourself to. The former is more likely to cause infection with worse severity. It also depends on your overall health, age, pre existing conditions, etc. 

Yes, there's risk with him going out with work and bringing it home. If he's good about decontamination before going home, it will help a lot. Removing clothes, showering immediately, etc. And if not distancing at home, wearing a mask wouldn't be a bad idea

 
Once the loan is approved you have days to accept the funds or the loan gets denied. 

ETA: Withholding taxes have traditionally never been forgiveable, as they weren't in expense you incurred. You collected the employees taxes on their behalf. 
No I'm talking employer paid fica and medicare. That's specifically excluded from reimbursable employer payroll.

 
But wasn't the whole mitigation effort and "closing" to simply flatten the curve? So we all don't all get it at once? 

In other words, it seems like we've moved from "look, most are going to get this - let's flatten to curve" to "it must be safe for everyone before we open again".
That might have been the purpose of the mitigation effort.  It isn't the reason I started working from home.....I did that 2 weeks before my company closed our offices.  We should be taking aggressive steps to make people as likely as possible to be safe.....or as likely as possible to recover fully if they become ill.  We aren't doing enough on either front right now.  That should ALWAYS have been part 2 & 3 of what we were doing (with Part 1 being what you described above - flattening the curve).

 
But I think you're missing his point. Things ARE going to start opening up again sooner rather than later. Whether you agree with it or not. And frankly, whether it's the correct thing to do or not (Narrator: It's not). So I think it would be helpful if people start thinking more about what that will mean when it does happen instead of just arguing "academically/scientifically" that it should not happen. Or blaming certain political parties or leaders (and I use that last word very reluctantly). 

Not just meaning you of course, just responding to your post. But I'd love to hear from you and the other very smart, informed people in here what we can do as a country/community/family when things start opening up more in mid-May. Not just that we "can't do it until summer" or whatever. Let's think realistically instead of academically. 

TIA. 
That's fair.  To be clear, I actually meant my post in the spirit that you're suggesting -- as I sit here right now, I think it's unlikely that society opens up much relative to the status quo by June 1.  I meant that as a statement of what I actually expect, not what I'm advocating.  (Although I do advocate for that too).  Then again, I have to admit that I have mostly tuned out the political side of covid-19 and I may not have have a good feel for what sorts of policy choices we're actually going to see in the next few weeks.  It would be easy for me to be wrong on this prediction.  

If we do actually open the economy up again, I'll probably continue as much social distancing as possible.  If given the option, I would probably continue to work from home, with only an occasional trip into the office for check-ins.  I don't imagine I would go to any bars or restaurants of movie theaters any time soon, and I'd probably stick with church online.  Again, though, that's just me.  

 
hey now...WTF did I do to get dragged into this??? 
We all have a burden to bear during this difficult time...Keith

Right, but can we MAKE people do that? I mean, I know a Governor or President could, but will they? Will people listen? There will be some people that more or less just go back to their normal way of interacting with people. 
Ah, here is the crux of the problem. When do we flip to a police state (ala dude getting drug off a bus in Philly for not having a mask) as opposed to issuing guidelines with minimal enforcement? Very slippy slope to start going down and unlike China were they really are sheep, our populace will push back.

The short answer is yes, the government can do that. Will they resort to it? Let's hope we don't have to find out.

 
I have been accused of giving "the common person" way too much credit.  Could be.
I hear you GB. I've had the same guy throw the "right wing" and "conspiracist" label at me despite every link I share being from sites like Reuters, CNN, Bloomberg, LA Times, ABC News, CBS News, 60 minutes, etc. You know, your typical run of the mill conservative rags. I've voted for one Republican President in my life and it wasn't Trump. But people like to lazily put convenient labels on everyone they don't agree with. I believe everyone who reads your posts know your intentions and thoughts are in the right place. You, like me, just want to see the irreparable harm limited for those who can't go on like this for many more days, much less weeks or months. 

 
Lots of viruses don't have vaccines. HIV, for one, even though there are trials. RSV is a common childhood virus that also doesn't have a vaccine. Those are just 2 examples of many.
Right, but that’s a whole other league of gene sequencing, right?

We have a lot of familiarity with the other 6 Coronavirus that proceeded SARS-CoV2. I haven’t read anything that indicates this is going to be more complex than SARS or MERS, and the mutations are only like 2 per month so it should be effective for some time as the basic structure hasn’t been observed to change.

(layman’s read on it, feel free to correct)

 
Personally?  One thing for us....stay the hell home....we are going nowhere for the next several months and we've cancelled three trips this summer/fall to see family/friends.
Yup. They can open all they want but individuals decide for themselves and their families. 

 
We all have a burden to bear during this difficult time...Keith

Ah, here is the crux of the problem. When do we flip to a police state (ala dude getting drug off a bus in Philly for not having a mask) as opposed to issuing guidelines with minimal enforcement? Very slippy slope to start going down and unlike China were they really are sheep, our populace will push back.

The short answer is yes, the government can do that. Will they resort to it? Let's hope we don't have to find out.
We already flipped.

Why is the forced closing of a business or telling people they cant go to their vacation homes any different? 

 
I don't have an answer for you, other than it's consistent with how government has always functioned regarding debt forgiveness. 
Yeah it's strange to me as employer paid health insurance and employer paid 401K match (both optional employer expenses) are included as forgivable payroll costs but mandatory payroll taxes are specifically excluded.  I'll be curious how this shakes out in 8 weeks or so when this debt, or a part of it, is forgiven. 

 
But wasn't the whole mitigation effort and "closing" to simply flatten the curve? So we all don't all get it at once? 

In other words, it seems like we've moved from "look, most are going to get this - let's flatten to curve" to "it must be safe for everyone before we open again".
It hasn't been movement from the red to the blue -- not fully opening before it could be sufficiently safe for almost everyone to re-engage was always one of the strategems of curve-flattening. While it's likely that most are still going to get COVID ... there is a way for "society",  as a collective, to "catch" COVID "safely" -- and that is spread out over time and below local healthcare capacity.

 
Sorry for the delay in response. PL. How was the Cub in EP?

I had to go to urgent care today in Shako. Not COVID related. Thankfully it was at a clinic that does not treat or diagnose COVID patients. Only one other person in the waiting room. Quiet and plenty of distance but I was still weirded out by it.

@mr roboto
I went yesterday evening around 7 PM and it was fairly empty. I would say 25% of the customers were wearing masks but most of the cashiers and employees were not.
 

every time I’ve gone out I feel like the customers are adhering very well the social distancing and I have never felt too close to anybody.

 
Influenza has a fast incubation period of 2 days. [COVID-19] is 6 days. 
Even trickier is that the incubation range is so variable. Some variability is true of any human disease ... but COVID can range from 2 days to over 14 days (though more than 14 days seems rare and such cases are controversial). Still so much to learn.

 
I guess "forever" is a long time ... but yes, there are many viruses we've never developed a vaccine for. As for "couldn't" as in "could not ever" ... dunno.
Electric word life
It means forever and that's a mighty long time
But I'm here to tell you
There's something else
The afterworld

A world of never ending happiness
You can always see the sun, day or night

So when you call up that shrink in Beverly Hills
You know the one - Dr Everything'll Be Alright
Instead of asking him how much of your time is left
Ask him how much of your mind, baby

'Cause in this life
Things are much harder than in the afterworld
In this life
You're on your own

And if the elevator tries to bring you down
Go crazy


 
OR gov says first to open, when they have adequate ppe, will be medical facilities so people can get their non urgent procedures done. They had no new cases to report today but it will be a slow mo reopening. And OR isn't a real dense state compared to CA so May 1 isn't happening imo and probably everyones.
Just heard Inslee say that Washington won't wait for Oregon or California to reopen business and lower restrictions if WA's numbers warrant it. Based on modeling that could very well be May. And California had similar numbers as well.

 
Even trickier is that the incubation range is so variable. Some variability is true of any human disease ... but COVID can range from 2 days to over 14 days (though more than 14 days seems rare and such cases are controversial). Still so much to learn.
A doc in LA CAwas just on CNN. 2 asymptomatic people tested positive for covid. 16 days later, one wants to go back to work, the other to visit older parents. Tested again, still positive. As long as there is any covid in the upper respiratory tract, you can spread it. 

 
Just heard Inslee say that Washington won't wait for Oregon or California to reopen business and lower restrictions if WA's numbers warrant it. Based on modeling that could very well be May. And California had similar numbers as well.
In half an hour we'll hear from Newsom. Places will open in certain areas slowly. Density is different in CA v OR  and WA. The Bay Area and So Cal are nuts. Newsom has already said science will drive this for us. 

Thankfully my mom in WA plans to rarely go out no matter what.

 
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Yeah, there seems to be a whole lot of blame and expectation placed on the federal government that is really not their role. Our current government is structured in such a way so that the states have quite a bit more power than most federal governments do around the world. We've gradually eroded that balance, but it's still there. Also the whole idea of individual freedom and personal responsibility are a linchpin of our society.
You mean like the CDC, NIH and FEMA?

 
We already flipped.

Why is the forced closing of a business or telling people they cant go to their vacation homes any different? 
The amount of enforcement associated with IMO.

We were all asked to shut it down and for the most part we did, voluntarily. At some point that good will is going to run out, people are going to go back to their vacation homes, businesses will open against orders in place and then we'll see what the difference is between where we are today (in your opinion a police state) and what a real police state looks like.

 
Even trickier is that the incubation range is so variable. Some variability is true of any human disease ... but COVID can range from 2 days to over 14 days (though more than 14 days seems rare and such cases are controversial). Still so much to learn.
A doc in LA CAwas just on CNN. 2 asymptomatic people tested positive for covid. 16 days later, one wants to go back to work, the other to visit older parents. Tested again, still positive. As long as there is any covid in the upper respiratory tract, you can spread it. 
I'm curious as to whether those are (a) 16+ day incubation periods, or (b) incubation is over, infection has set in, but still no outward symptoms after 16 days.

 
The amount of enforcement associated with IMO.

We were all asked to shut it down and for the most part we did, voluntarily. At some point that good will is going to run out, people are going to go back to their vacation homes, businesses will open against orders in place and then we'll see what the difference is between where we are today (in your opinion a police state) and what a real police state looks like.
I don't understand what you are saying. Are you of the opinion that all of these closures and stay at home are voluntary? Police are already issuing tickets and forcing people to do things.

A business near me tried to stay open. At first there was confusion about who had legal authority to stop them so day 1 they got away with it.

Day 2 6 cop cars rolled up and shut it down. Guy is in a heap of trouble now and probably is closed forever.

 
Lots of viruses don't have vaccines. HIV, for one, even though there are trials. RSV is a common childhood virus that also doesn't have a vaccine. Those are just 2 examples of many.
Right, but that’s a whole other league of gene sequencing, right?

We have a lot of familiarity with the other 6 Coronavirus that proceeded SARS-CoV2. I haven’t read anything that indicates this is going to be more complex than SARS or MERS, and the mutations are only like 2 per month so it should be effective for some time as the basic structure hasn’t been observed to change.
None of the coronaviruses have a vaccine. I don't think any of the rhinoviruses do, either, but that's more of a seat-of-the-pants statement - haven't gone and looked it up.

 
I'm curious as to whether those are (a) 16+ day incubation periods, or (b) incubation is over, infection has set in, but still no outward symptoms after 16 days.
B. They are still asymptomatic. 
 I got you. I guess I'm really wondering where incubation ends and infection begins in an asymptomatic patient who recovers without ever having presented outward symptoms.

That 16-day anecdote does point to another difficulty with COVID -- carriers seem to stay contagious for such a long time. With most flus, it's what? Maxes out around a week? Maybe less?

IIRC with a lot of common colds, people commonly keep coughing and showing symptoms well after they've stopped being contagious.

 
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I have this problem as well. You forgot Pete Davidson’s clueless frat character on SNL. It’s a name that definitely comes with preconceptions. I’m the offspring of a Todd, too. You’d think I’m the product of the country club set, but hardly. I’m an introverted nerd, not a skate rat or a frat guy.

In 2000, rarely met anyone who didn’t make the “hanging” reference, but not one person landed a solid punchline. 

It doesn’t keep me up at night, but the negative associations with a name are not harmless. Like racial epithets, they frame preconceptions, biases, and prejudice. All funny when your name isn’t Karen or Chad. 
Other than it getting old real fast when the 1,000th person in a two day span asks you if you are a hanging Chad or a pregnant Chad or a..... and thinks that they are funny.... 

I just roll with it. Humor is humor. I play the hammed up "I am taking my ball and going home" roll when people mess with me about the name. 

But overall, I mean, the name Chad does seem to have a whole lot of bad assumptions or connotations to it. There are worst things in life though... I mean, I could be a Rams fan and have to deal with that new logo!

 
Dude... W T F 

First time I saw this was about a week a go with a realtor who said "I am literally a product of a Karen and a Chad" in a little debate among realtors about being too sexy in pictures (I admit... the only reason I was reading it was that she was pretty darn sexy in herprofile pictures)

The name Chad gets NO love. First it was all about the "preppy" tag to it.... then the stupid 2000 election in Florida..... then Tom Green in Charlie's Angels (man, the year 2000 sucked to have the name Chad).... then now this? Come on guys. Give a guy a break. 
For the 6 that liked this post... I am now wondering if your name is Chad too. 🤔

 
I don't understand what you are saying. Are you of the opinion that all of these closures and stay at home are voluntary? Police are already issuing tickets and forcing people to do things.

A business near me tried to stay open. At first there was confusion about who had legal authority to stop them so day 1 they got away with it.

Day 2 6 cop cars rolled up and shut it down. Guy is in a heap of trouble now and probably is closed forever.
Yea I get there are isolated incidences of people pushing back. What I'm talking about is when you have governors saying we're opening back up May 1, when you have the Fed's talking about sooner rather than later, these isolated incidents are going to not be so isolated.

Everyone is playing nice right now but there is an undertone of restlessness you can feel all over social media that makes me think playing nice is quickly fizzling out. Numbers are flattening, death projections are down, outbreaks seem to be isolated to larger, metropolitan areas. John Q. Public isn't going to stay at home much longer unless this thing bites him personally in the ###. I think the enforcement of these stay at home orders will take a turn in the next 2-3 weeks and probably not for the better.

Just my opinion

 
I don't understand what you are saying. Are you of the opinion that all of these closures and stay at home are voluntary? Police are already issuing tickets and forcing people to do things.

A business near me tried to stay open. At first there was confusion about who had legal authority to stop them so day 1 they got away with it.

Day 2 6 cop cars rolled up and shut it down. Guy is in a heap of trouble now and probably is closed forever.
There's some wild stuff going on in Michigan.  Legally forbidding stores from selling vegetable seeds?  Every executive order Whitmer throws out seems weirder than the last one.

 
There's some wild stuff going on in Michigan.  Legally forbidding stores from selling vegetable seeds?  Every executive order Whitmer throws out seems weirder than the last one.
I think that was editorialized iirc. She closed garden centers. Somebody just picked the seeds thing to make a point. I think a grocery store or other essential business wasn't forbidden from selling seeds. But I could be wrong. 

 
None of the coronaviruses have a vaccine. I don't think any of the rhinoviruses do, either, but that's more of a seat-of-the-pants statement - haven't gone and looked it up.
Wait, so we gotta deal with ####### rhino's now too? WTH are you people doing in?!?!?!

Paging Mr. Byrant.... paging Mr. Bryant..... Mr. Bryant to the complaint desk please....
Yea Joe...CHAD...is at it again  :rolleyes:

As a non church goer I have a question.

Do they put up venmo or paypal links for donations while the sermon is going on?
Ours has always had options to pay from our website, pay from your phone or the old fashion hand em some scrilla  :moneybag:

 
It's so hard to just reply without looking like I'm trying to pick a fight, because honestly I'm not.

But saying opening June 1st is ridiculously over optimistic to me sounds callous to the 35, 40, 50 million unemployed with families to feed.  And yes, the government is helping out, but I don't think you are understanding the backlog and how this help is not really coming through.  Nor do you understand just how many companies will be bankrupted and jobs not returning.  I see the burden being born way more on the poor of this country by locking it down for 3+ months.  And I know you'll say lives are more important, and I'm not arguing that fact, but a 30 year old person in relatively good health with 2 children to feed is not going to be at high risk.

And yes, I full agree we need wide spread testing, but I also believe that the spread is always going to be faster, more significant in NYC than it is in Tacoma Washington.  I think it's impossible to weigh everything accurately. 

I just really think that there is going to be a massive divide between the open it up and the don't open it up crowd here very soon and frankly I think things could get ugly. I just hope both sides can empathize with the other in a peaceful manner.
Some analysis on your bolded assertions:


 
Right, but that’s a whole other league of gene sequencing, right?

We have a lot of familiarity with the other 6 Coronavirus that proceeded SARS-CoV2. I haven’t read anything that indicates this is going to be more complex than SARS or MERS, and the mutations are only like 2 per month so it should be effective for some time as the basic structure hasn’t been observed to change.

(layman’s read on it, feel free to correct)
Only thing that really worries me about vaccine is they never did one for SARS or MERS.  I hope that is a function of them never really needing it vs. not being able to produce one.  

 
There's a post earlier on by @Terminalxylem about how infection has various factors that contribute to the illness you can get when exposed. The amount of virus you get exposed to (think of it as a dose) matters. Think of it as the difference between someone with active infection coughing directly into your face vs someone with only a few viral particles leaving some on a door handle that you then touch and expose yourself to. The former is more likely to cause infection with worse severity. It also depends on your overall health, age, pre existing conditions, etc. 

Yes, there's risk with him going out with work and bringing it home. If he's good about decontamination before going home, it will help a lot. Removing clothes, showering immediately, etc. And if not distancing at home, wearing a mask wouldn't be a bad idea
May not answer all of his question, but here's a concise little article I had JUST read on this very subject: How much of the coronavirus does it take to make you sick? The science, explained (cc: @AAABatteries)

Other than it getting old real fast when the 1,000th person in a two day span asks you if you are a hanging Chad or a pregnant Chad or a..... and thinks that they are funny.... 

I just roll with it. Humor is humor. I play the hammed up "I am taking my ball and going home" roll when people mess with me about the name. 

But overall, I mean, the name Chad does seem to have a whole lot of bad assumptions or connotations to it. There are worst things in life though... I mean, I could be a Rams fan and have to deal with that new logo!
My apologies (cc: @Mr. Ham). My heinous Chad comments shall be stricken from the record. THANKS a lot @beer 30! Look what you made me do!!! 

 
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I guess "forever" is a long time ... but yes, there are many viruses we've never developed a vaccine for. As for "couldn't" as in "could not ever" ... dunno.
From what I have read today, last U.S. SARS case was 17 years ago, last MERS was May 2014.

They developed a vaccine in ferrets for the former but since it was largely eradicated they moved onto other priorities.

The vaccine for the latter was in clinical trials last year but haven’t seen any updates.

The good news is there’s about 90% commonality in the sequencing, and they have a lot of groundwork from those two to lead many to believe they’ll be successful developing the SARS-CoV2 vaccine.

But far from a slam dunk at this juncture.

 
Only thing that really worries me about vaccine is they never did one for SARS or MERS.  I hope that is a function of them never really needing it vs. not being able to produce one.  
They never finished, but it’s my layman’s understanding that’s in part because other projects became a bigger priority. Less than 1,000 deaths and no recent cases here relieved the pressure to keep going.

But maybe there’s more to the story.

:shrug:

 
A business near me tried to stay open. At first there was confusion about who had legal authority to stop them so day 1 they got away with it.

Day 2 6 cop cars rolled up and shut it down. Guy is in a heap of trouble now and probably is closed forever.
what business was it out of curiousity since i think you are a cheesehead to take that to the bank bromigo

 
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I don't understand what you are saying. Are you of the opinion that all of these closures and stay at home are voluntary? Police are already issuing tickets and forcing people to do things.

A business near me tried to stay open. At first there was confusion about who had legal authority to stop them so day 1 they got away with it.

Day 2 6 cop cars rolled up and shut it down. Guy is in a heap of trouble now and probably is closed forever.
what business was it out of curiousity since i think you are a cheesehead to take that to the bank bromigo
Maybe this one: https://www.fox19.com/2020/03/17/cincinnati-bar-boarded-up-after-violating-statewide-order-close/

 
May not answer all of his question, but here's a concise little article I had JUST read on this very subject: How much of the coronavirus does it take to make you sick? The science, explained (cc: @AAABatteries)

My apologies (cc: @Mr. Ham). My heinous Chad comments shall be stricken from the record. THANKS a lot @beer 30! Look what you made me do!!! 
At some point would it make sense for us to try and infect folks in areas where things are calm and then isolate them?  Kind of a version of what GB and Sweden did or are doing but adding monitoring of the folks that you infect.  Especially if you could tie it to something that allows them to reenter the workforce.

 
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