the moops
Footballguy
Or January.
The flu test is only about 50% accurate. So what people had, was most likely the flu
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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (13 Viewers)
- Thread starter Big League Chew
- Start date
- Status
The flu test is only about 50% accurate. So what people had, was most likely the flu
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Been a while since I checked into this thread. Thanks to the early preppers in here I was able to stock up. Now I'm almost out of toilet paper and hand soap. Where the hell are people getting this stuff? It's gone everywhere.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
Not really. This is perfectly in line with Wuhan. First cases in Wuhan in late Nov/Dec, peak 3 months later in mid-Feb.
First cases in NY in Jan, peak 3 months later in April. Geometric progression.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
Not sure this board is grown up enough to have this conversation without people reporting people. Let me just say this, it is actually a high risk group(not all the letters are high risk, but two are) Should take you about 30 seconds to find out why via google.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Yep, it's been awfully quiet here regarding the emerging news that the timeline is being shifted by the professionals. I got blasted by the usual suspects for suggesting it was in California in December and Nevada in January. The ongoing Stanford study was mocked for suggesting the same. Yet look where we are today...quite a few folks came up in this thread saying they (or someone they knew) had it earlier than the (accepted) timeline allowed, yet were basically laughed outta here by the "experts" milling about this mutha.
ridiculous finger wagging ensued "now, now ... it's impossible for ______ to have had it back then! we know all!, and will be the ONLY arbiters of what's accepted in here! so take our gospel word for it and stop saying ______ had this already!!!1!!1!"
New virus timeline: California had 2 deaths weeks earlier
Gavin Newsom now thinks there is reason to look back all the way to December...
But I was told that wasn't possible? What could be the reason why earlier cases were missed? Hmm, the below sounds so familiar...
You don't say...
otb_lifer
Footballguy
yep.
as i said, we're barely scratching the surface of total knowledge regarding so many peripherals involving this virus - to dismiss anything as folderal at this point is as ridiculous as purporting to be the all knowing cognescenti -
shader
Footballguy
The professionals that you listen to are shifting the timeline. The other professionals, the ones you don't listen to, aren't.
the moops
Footballguy
It's quiet, because you have latched onto every fringe possibility, and many of us got tired of responding. You latched onto the Stanford study early on and touted the "as early as November 17th" as the most likely finding. You talked on and on about how hospitals were overrun in December and January with flu-like patients - yet offered no evidence to support that. Then you went on with just about every other post linking to the benfits of hydroxychloroquine.
I can't speak for everyone here, but...
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
I still want to know why so many people are testing negative, yet we have such a shortage of tests.
Who is getting tested?
My state has 90% negative. My exwife couldnt get a test after presenting symptoms and having traveled to multiple european cities on two separate trips in the prior 14 days.
Who is getting tested?
My state has 90% negative. My exwife couldnt get a test after presenting symptoms and having traveled to multiple european cities on two separate trips in the prior 14 days.
shader
Footballguy
Nothing should be dismissed yet. It's a novel virus. But we should still rely on the true experts to get our info. That would be the CDC and the WHO.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Bingo. And it's also worthwhile to note that people like you, myself, and others weren't shouting down the other side. But god forbid we said anything that didn't line up with their narrow, one-sided view of things, and we were shouted down vehemently. Important distinction to make.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Lol, what??? The professionals the Governor of California is listening to are shifting the timeline. What professionals are you listening to that are still clinging to this narrow window of the virus in America? And what does it say for the people you're apparently listening to?
Dezbelief
Footballguy
Online or risk yourself checking every day. I scored hand sanitizer in the store yesterday, I was shocked.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
That's quite the different tune you're singing. Refreshing to hear. Btw, the CDC is the body that just confirmed the earlier California cases. I guess that leaves you with WHO.
Ksquared
Footballguy
Thus the problem with many in this thread. If you do not believe in their "group" think you are dismissed and ridiculed. Why you ask? Because "the"(ir) experts said so. And yet at times in the same response they will say we don't know enough about Corona.....it is a novel virus. I have tried to point out this dichotomy and get rebuffed. Bottom line is we do not know enough to complete accept group think and dismiss anything that does not follow the "experts".
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
the moops
Footballguy
When I know nothing about a subject (novel viruses) I tend to rely on experts and not random internet posters citing fringe sites
Don't Noonan
Footballguy
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Yeah all those CNN, LA Times, Reuters, AP, NPR, etc articles I was posting are so fringe. Someone already tried to make that same false assertion.
Sand
Footballguy
Some here. Late January. Very little fever, just a horrible dry cough that lasted for weeks.
shader
Footballguy
There's an underlying political issue that is part of the issue here. That can't be addressed in this thread.
It's always a good idea to listen to the experts. Sure, they are at times wrong, but why wouldn't we listen to them?
I also totally disagree with your statement that people are dismissed and ridiculed. If someone pops in and mentions a study, this thread does a great job of discussing it. The issue is when someone has an agenda and only posts studies or doctors that agree with their agenda.
Also, let's not use the phrase "group think" when we're talking about the consensus of the experts. There's an underlying idea by some that all doctors, all studies, all information should be considered equally. That's 100% false. If the scientific community leans one way and some new study comes out and goes in the entire other direction, it should be looked at very skeptically. That's the way science should work.
beer 30
Footballguy
We should start a thread for all the folks who think they had it so we can document it. I think I had it in December (not trying to be a topper) but according to all timelines there is no way I would have contracted it then. I did officially test negative for flu A & B so I had something and checked all the 'rona boxes.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
Glad to see people coming forward once again since there should be a lot less doubt now. Even the experts and the CDC would have to now acknowledge it's entirely possible. I myself was sick 3 straight months (Dec, Jan, Feb), something I've never experienced before. The December and February bouts were very similar and drawn out for a week as is usually the case for me with colds and flu. But what I experienced in January was quite different with a rare high fever and very short-lived.
parasaurolophus
Footballguy
It is at least possible that the overwhelming number of people that think they have it now are testing negative.
The thing that is hard to figure out from that NY Times Article is how come SF did not blow up like NYC, if they had similar levels of infected March 1st. SF did not go on lock down until 3/16, so there should have been plenty of opportunity for it to spread. I know NYC is more dense than SF, but as the second most dense Metro area it should have still spread widely. I am still extremely skeptical of numerous people being exposed pre-February, it just does not match the data we have so far. Maybe later data will turn up something where it makes more sense. Right now it seems kind of pointless to argue about interim data, in the next few months we should have a more complete picture.
I recall being feverish for a few days and then being in bed for almost a week, then having a sore throat and losing my voice for almost a month..... in 2018. People get sick during cold and flu season, sometimes you get weird symptoms from a cold, and I think anything beyond that is wishful thinking unless you have a positive antibody test, especially if you are not in a premier travel city. I recommend everyone who thinks they had it try and find a way to get tested, but if you are in BFE Nebraska or whatever I would not assume you are immune and go out and about.
I recall being feverish for a few days and then being in bed for almost a week, then having a sore throat and losing my voice for almost a month..... in 2018. People get sick during cold and flu season, sometimes you get weird symptoms from a cold, and I think anything beyond that is wishful thinking unless you have a positive antibody test, especially if you are not in a premier travel city. I recommend everyone who thinks they had it try and find a way to get tested, but if you are in BFE Nebraska or whatever I would not assume you are immune and go out and about.
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Possum
Footballguy
jwb
Footballguy
Me as well. Late Feb. Lungs felt heavy/bad the night of 2/23. 2/24 - 2/27 were 4 days of fever, aches/chills, and a cough with very little congestion. Lost all sense of taste as well. Started feeling better 2/28, but my chest didn't feel right for about 2 weeks afterwards.
We thought I had the flu, and were somewhat careful to try and keep my wife from catching it (wiped down counters/doorknobs with clorox wipes and such.) She did not catch whatever I had.
Did I have Corona? I think I did, but the fact that it's supposed to be very contagious, and my wife did not get it despite living in the same house / sleeping in the same bed with me makes me think maybe not too. I may never find out for sure. I suppose if I don't get it from this point forward, well, there's my answer.
I live in one of the adjacent counties that shut down at the same time. Things were slowing down the week March 9th or so, but I knew people that were still going to plays and other shows March 7th or so and they were pretty full. Maybe just that early shutdown helped a lot? I dunno. Everyone was mostly still working onsite at that time, I recall 3/10 or so we had a big company lunch in person where everyone was essentially sharing catered food.
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beer 30
Footballguy
Any little sniffle right now is getting people worked up to thinking they have it. Great that it's happening during allergy season and the tail end of flu season. Well played Mother Nature, well played
Redwes25
Footballguy
The virus was clearly much more widespread in NYC per that article. Here is an older tweet that shows a huge surge in very early march/late February at NYC hospitals for flu like symptons. I think at least in NYC there were probably 10k cases on March 1. Also probably a small number of cases in early February to get to that 10k number on March 1 but people saying they were infected in January or early February are probably unlikely as there would have been a very small number of cases and all would probably tied to China somehow. I doubt anyone picked it up going to church in Austin in January.
https://twitter.com/chrislhayes/status/1239265115108773890/photo/1
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Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
The tide is turning...
Michigan governor: Opening businesses that "pose very little risk" may be appropriate
Michigan ranks 7th in total cases out of all U.S. states, districts, and territories.
If even Whitmer acknowledges it's time for some businesses to open, what's your excuse Nevada, Wisconsin, others?
Michigan governor: Opening businesses that "pose very little risk" may be appropriate
Michigan ranks 7th in total cases out of all U.S. states, districts, and territories.
If even Whitmer acknowledges it's time for some businesses to open, what's your excuse Nevada, Wisconsin, others?
beer 30
Footballguy
This is the part that has me skeptical about the whole "it was here en mass" well before we knew it (December or earlier). If that many people had it, we would have seen a significant event (like NYC). Hard for me to imagine with everything that was put in place in March to stem the tide of this and we still had a melt down in NYC that something similar wouldn't have occurred in an area of high density before any social distancing/shelter-in-place procedures were in place.
ericttspikes
Footballguy
CA is really weird. It's a big port of entry from Asia also. Maybe the European strain is different and the East coast blew up because of migration of that one? Weather related? More people living outdoors?
the moops
Footballguy
Had this been posted here?
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1253329710953533442?s=19
An asymptomatic person w/#COVID19 goes into a restaurant......
A1 unwittingly infects 9 others
https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1253329710953533442?s=19
An asymptomatic person w/#COVID19 goes into a restaurant......
A1 unwittingly infects 9 others
Ksquared
Footballguy
This will be my last response to you on this, but you and a couple of others in this thread insist on following only the experts that fit your position. I am not talking about Facebook post, etc. It is the complete dismissal of potential conflicting ideas. And yet we continue to be told we don't know enough about this virus........So which is it? We know enough to dismiss alternative ideas outright? Or we don't know enough and even the "experts" positions need to be looked at as not set?
This point is getting bogged down with all the I believe I had it in Jan/Feb. We should absolutely be critical of all "opinions" whether they fit someones ideas or not until there has been time for the medical/science community to vet their own theories. Because I still believe almost all of the causes, numbers, etc are not fleshed out yet and are little more than theories that need to be proven with the scientific process. We have to stop dismissing ideas outright that have a possibility of being correct.
Coach Morris Buttermaker
Footballguy
UN is already predicting famines of biblical proportions from the economic impact of the coronavirus.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
The article I posted earlier shows that places like Washington and California did have events earlier that were dismissed at the time as a severe flu outbreak...
https://apnews.com/c508cfec44ba9b4b8b23e83a443aa0d7
Keerock
Footballguy
Morton Muffley
Footballguy
Ok, feeling the need to post as it seems some in here are seeing this as one side vs. another when in reality it is undoubtedly a continuum of perspective that we each fall upon. This has truly been one of the greatest threads I have ever participated in on this board and that's because I think for the most part many of us see value in ALL the posts, learn from each other, and don't take it personally when our post is questioned by one person or another. As someone who has "liked" posts from those across the continuum and has had some of my posts both liked AND critically questioned, I can only speak for myself when I say:
Now, I THINK I may be able to bridge the current divide on the "was it here earlier?" question. It seems to me that everyone would agree that: of course it was. No one really thinks that the FIRST case we found was REALLY (one of) the first case(s) in the US. That would be silly to imagine that patient zero was truly patient #1 (nor #10, and probably not #50 either), but the issue it seems some of us are having is that we each have dozens of people we know who SWEAR they had Corona months ago. And that just doesn't pass the sniff test. I don't need to do the math of exponential growth to prove that anymore than I needed to look up the actual data to know Dr Phil was WAY wrong when purported that there are 9x as many swimming pool deaths annually as there are automobile deaths. Those of us who work with numbers daily have intuitions about numbers and sometimes they just feel wrong. Those feelings then cause us to ask questions, gather other data and both to prove/disprove intuitions. That is, we use the intuition to draw a hypothesis that we can then "test" in some manner. We ALL do this, but what we also do is we tend to rely to easily on things that fit our hypothesis and too easily dismiss things that do not. To that end, I'd ask ALL of us to inspect those along the entirety of the continuum. Do you really think that those on the opposite end are wrong about EVERYTHING? Have you "liked" a post recently from someone you more commonly disagree with? Conversely, have you too readily accepted the POV from someone you know you commonly agree with? Here's what I do: I read the comments while keeping myself blinded to the poster. Admittedly, that has occasionally caused me to like a post that I later determined (via context of who was posting) was sarcastic when I had originally read it as sincere. But these are easily fixed via deletion of the like.
Sorry for the tangent. Ok, back to where I was going.
I will not be surprised to find that the virus was here somewhat earlier than first reported. And no ONE will be surprised to learn that the actual prevalence is far higher than the confirmed caseload - which is how some media were shockingly reporting it (i.e from the NYT "In both cases, the estimates of the number of people infected in those counties were far higher than the number of confirmed cases."). But the .1% fatality rate that one of the studies results implied is just silliness (IMO) - given that would mean EVERYONE in NYC is already infected. And on all those anecdotal "I had it in February" stories: I think we can dismiss MANY.MOST of them by pointing to the VERY high negative test rate we are seeing across the country. That is, ALOT of people are showing up to get tested - presumably because they think they have Covid - and only a fraction (about 20%) ACTUALLY have it. Certainly, some of these people are hypochondriacs, some are false negatives, and others may be premature (i.e. they will test positive tomorrow), but even if one liberally factors in these instances, there will still be ALOT of negative cases. So to those who think they got this in February, I say: it's possible, but don't you think it's more likely you had whatever the ~80% of negative Covid test-takers have?
As always, just my opinion.
- Thank you all. You have helped me greatly...
- exposed me to a range of opinions...
- caused me to question some of my own poorly constructed hypotheses...
- and, on occasion, shift my thinking - sometimes gradually, sometimes suddenly
Now, I THINK I may be able to bridge the current divide on the "was it here earlier?" question. It seems to me that everyone would agree that: of course it was. No one really thinks that the FIRST case we found was REALLY (one of) the first case(s) in the US. That would be silly to imagine that patient zero was truly patient #1 (nor #10, and probably not #50 either), but the issue it seems some of us are having is that we each have dozens of people we know who SWEAR they had Corona months ago. And that just doesn't pass the sniff test. I don't need to do the math of exponential growth to prove that anymore than I needed to look up the actual data to know Dr Phil was WAY wrong when purported that there are 9x as many swimming pool deaths annually as there are automobile deaths. Those of us who work with numbers daily have intuitions about numbers and sometimes they just feel wrong. Those feelings then cause us to ask questions, gather other data and both to prove/disprove intuitions. That is, we use the intuition to draw a hypothesis that we can then "test" in some manner. We ALL do this, but what we also do is we tend to rely to easily on things that fit our hypothesis and too easily dismiss things that do not. To that end, I'd ask ALL of us to inspect those along the entirety of the continuum. Do you really think that those on the opposite end are wrong about EVERYTHING? Have you "liked" a post recently from someone you more commonly disagree with? Conversely, have you too readily accepted the POV from someone you know you commonly agree with? Here's what I do: I read the comments while keeping myself blinded to the poster. Admittedly, that has occasionally caused me to like a post that I later determined (via context of who was posting) was sarcastic when I had originally read it as sincere. But these are easily fixed via deletion of the like.
Sorry for the tangent. Ok, back to where I was going.
I will not be surprised to find that the virus was here somewhat earlier than first reported. And no ONE will be surprised to learn that the actual prevalence is far higher than the confirmed caseload - which is how some media were shockingly reporting it (i.e from the NYT "In both cases, the estimates of the number of people infected in those counties were far higher than the number of confirmed cases."). But the .1% fatality rate that one of the studies results implied is just silliness (IMO) - given that would mean EVERYONE in NYC is already infected. And on all those anecdotal "I had it in February" stories: I think we can dismiss MANY.MOST of them by pointing to the VERY high negative test rate we are seeing across the country. That is, ALOT of people are showing up to get tested - presumably because they think they have Covid - and only a fraction (about 20%) ACTUALLY have it. Certainly, some of these people are hypochondriacs, some are false negatives, and others may be premature (i.e. they will test positive tomorrow), but even if one liberally factors in these instances, there will still be ALOT of negative cases. So to those who think they got this in February, I say: it's possible, but don't you think it's more likely you had whatever the ~80% of negative Covid test-takers have?
As always, just my opinion.
jamny
Footballguy
Thanks for posting it. Didn't read the whole thing but will get back to it. Great read for all those that constantly choose sides.
The conclusion itself is a must read, imo
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Deaths are hard to hide, and unless the virus behaves differently than it has in NYC I would assume there would be significantly more deaths and exposure if the virus was around back then unless those people were hermits. Even with the recent controversial Stanford antibody testing, even if you ignore any chance at false positives, it showed that a low single digit % of people had it, so even in more recent times it is not widespread at all, which goes against it being present so early if it is contagious as reported.
worrierking
Footballguy
I'll tell my story again. I related it up thread, but after consulting with my wife and niece, a couple of details have changed. On Friday January 24th, my niece, a 34-year old first-grade teacher, asked my wife if she could watch her younger son (1) for a couple of hours the next day, so she could bring her older son (5) to a birthday party. Wife went to niece's house that day to figure out how to use younger son's new car seat and stayed about 20 minutes. Niece had a mild fever, but felt ok. Next day, niece calls and says both kids are sick with fevers and she is taking them to urgent care. She feels better. Urgent care tests both kids for flu and both are negative.
Following day is Sunday and niece asks wife to keep her kids the next day so she can go to work. Kids still have fevers and daycare won't take them. Monday, the one-year-old is better and goes to daycare and my wife babysits 5-year-old all day.
Wednesday my wife comes down with a fever and cough. Friday, I get fever and fatigue. Wife has fever for five days and cough for two weeks, the worst cough she's ever had. I watched the Super bowl with a 101 fever and had fever for five days, with minor other symptoms (no cough). I've never had a fever last that long and I was not back to normal (able to run and work out) for two solid weeks.
The severity of the symptoms, the kids negative flu test and the fact that both the wife and I had the flu shot all make me wonder if it was COVID-19. The time frame, late January and early February makes me doubt that it was COVID. It's possible we had the disease around here then, but we have had a very small outbreak overall here (340 confirmed cases in a Parish of 200,000 residents). One would think it would have been huge if it was here already when schools were still open.
I am guessing the probability is small, less than ten percent chance I had it. I still want the antibody test. I want to know for sure (and if I had it, I want to donate blood and plasma).
Following day is Sunday and niece asks wife to keep her kids the next day so she can go to work. Kids still have fevers and daycare won't take them. Monday, the one-year-old is better and goes to daycare and my wife babysits 5-year-old all day.
Wednesday my wife comes down with a fever and cough. Friday, I get fever and fatigue. Wife has fever for five days and cough for two weeks, the worst cough she's ever had. I watched the Super bowl with a 101 fever and had fever for five days, with minor other symptoms (no cough). I've never had a fever last that long and I was not back to normal (able to run and work out) for two solid weeks.
The severity of the symptoms, the kids negative flu test and the fact that both the wife and I had the flu shot all make me wonder if it was COVID-19. The time frame, late January and early February makes me doubt that it was COVID. It's possible we had the disease around here then, but we have had a very small outbreak overall here (340 confirmed cases in a Parish of 200,000 residents). One would think it would have been huge if it was here already when schools were still open.
I am guessing the probability is small, less than ten percent chance I had it. I still want the antibody test. I want to know for sure (and if I had it, I want to donate blood and plasma).
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
The flu season has a typical range from 20,000-60,000 national deaths. That's 40K worth of room to have Covid lost in the shuffle. It could be that the flu season wasn't so bad and what really was causing that severe outbreak was this. Not saying this as anything definitive, just a POSSIBLE explanation.
Courtjester
The Town Drunk
My tips:
Because of my health, I do not go in stores and getting curbside on these items is next to impossible. My go to place is Amazon. I get up really early (I can't sleep most nights anyway) and I search for several items. If I find them in stock and I am running sort of low, I grab them no matter the price pretty much. I don't horde though--I don't need 100 rolls of TP. You have to be flexible on your brand--but always read the comments to make sure you aren't getting open boxed items or knock offs. You also have to buy when you see it--don't hesitate to pull the trigger because I have had several times where I have gone to add an item to my cart and before I can finish the purchase, it sells out.
I had a case of paper towels delivered last week--Bounty, the good stuff-16 double rolls and I paid $39.00.
TP--I got the Amazon brand (Presto) and i can tell you I am sold on them from this point forward. Real good quality stuff and I have like 30 rolls of them--so we are good for a bit.
It is hit or miss on facial tissue. I did get six boxes of Puffs yesterday and that was only the second time I have seen name brand tissues available on there. Paid like $15.00
Hand soaps/Hand Sanitzers---Bath and Body Works is money, but you have to strike early for sanitizers. My wife already had an addiction to this place before the virus, so we have soaps, sanitizers, lotions, whatever coming out of our ears. She collects it--no joke. I just have to humor her when she talks about 'This is a retired scent. You will never find it again." Me: "Um. it is hand soap..." Use on-line coupons to get free shipping or 20% off the order.
The absolute holy grail of items are disinfecting wipes--Clorox/Lysol are nowhere to be found on-line as Amazon has been prioritizing them, rightfully so, to health care providers. Amazon has Solimo as their wipe brand and it has proven to be hard to get. People are leaving recent, great reviews, so it must come available and then go off quickly. I know a lot of people have had luck with these at dollar stores. There are also websites that can tell you if an item is in stock near you--be careful as they are ripe with viruses/malware.
I could stay inside forever...
Sort of grim, but I wonder if you could check infant mortality for something like that and tease something out, since what we know so far of COVID is that it affects the elderly the most, while the flu tends to affect both the very young and the elderly. I am not sure if flu deaths need a positive flu test to be recorded as such, or if flu like symptoms are good enough.
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Dezbelief
Footballguy
I have been hearing anecdotal stories from all over Texas and Oklahoma like this. Elderly groups where the death rate ticked up in December and January.
I believe we are dealing with different strains on the East Coast and West Coast. Just like it appears to me South Korea and Italy had different strains.
Just like fantasy football we should take in all information available and arrive at our own conclusions. It seems just about everyone with sustained media presence has been evolving their opinions and advice as different information made available. We are all flying by the seat of our pants.
I believe there are several strains circulating, some much deadlier than others, some milder strains were going around first and that the deadly strain that hit Wuhan was not the first strain.
I truly hope the milder strains give us some immunity to the deadlier strains that is our only hope of herd immunity without millions of deaths.
I think the best course of action is opening places where the death rates are lowest among confirmed cases and locking down where the death rates are the highest. What I truly wish for is that researchers identify which strains are weaker and which are deadlier and are able to test for the difference. Perhaps the key to a vaccine is inoculating people with the milder strains.
- Status
