*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (4 Viewers)

[bcat01]

Who is afraid to go to the ER?  I’ve not heard or read one specific instance of this. 

Lots of people.  My wifes hospital averages 75 ER visits a day.  For the last 2 months they have been in the teens.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Good stuff today guys.   Thanks for the reminder of why I’m planning to quarantine a long time still.   

Quarantining for the rest of my life looks better every day.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I would absolutely expect people to be fearful of going to the ER. They still may have to depending on the emergency. 

But I have no doubt if it's something 6 months ago they might be on the fence about whether something was serious enough for the ER, today they probably do not go. 

I had to go to urgent care a few weeks ago and hated it.  Luckily they had signs up that they weren't treating anyone with fever, made you register for your visit by phone from the car, gave you a mask and took your temperature at the door, then escorted you straight back to the exam room.  Couldn't have been more careful.

 

[The Commish]

Who is afraid to go to the ER?  I’ve not heard or read one specific instance of this. 

Lots of people.  My wifes hospital averages 75 ER visits a day.  For the last 2 months they have been in the teens.

My wife put a staple in her finger via staple gun despite extensive training on the tool...she opted to do the surgery to remove it herself before going to even the Urgent Care.

 

[eoMMan]

My wife put a staple in her finger via staple gun despite extensive training on the tool...she opted to do the surgery to remove it herself before going to even the Urgent Care.

Removing the entire finger was probably the wrong decision, imo.

 

[JAA]

Without hyperbolic fear this thread is 10 pages.

I dont understand this post.  What part of this worldwide pandemic is overblown?  Is it the deaths?  Is it the infection rate?  What is exactly overblown, ie hyperbolic fear?

 

[Joe Bryant]

My wife put a staple in her finger via staple gun despite extensive training on the tool...she opted to do the surgery to remove it herself before going to even the Urgent Care.

Dang. I'm sorry Buddy to hear that. But totally understand her point.

I'm super interested @JAA when you say "Who is afraid to go to the ER?  I’ve not heard or read one specific instance of this. " how you're getting such different signals?

 

[JAA]

Who is afraid to go to the ER?  I’ve not heard or read one specific instance of this. 

I would absolutely expect people to be fearful of going to the ER. They still may have to depending on the emergency. 

But I have no doubt if it's something 6 months ago they might be on the fence about whether something was serious enough for the ER, today they probably do not go. 

I should have phrased my question differently:

"Who is choosing to not go to the ER, when they should, because of COVID?"

The difference being I think everyone wants to stay away from hospitals.  However, if I broke my ankle and needed to be seen I would heading over there ASAP.

 

[RUSF18]

Haven't seen matuski rant like that since Pacquiao. Geez dude

He spent the past two months ragging on anyone who mentioned using masks because it wasn't a 100% effective method for stopping transmission, when not a single person in here ever made that claim. 

 

[The Commish]

Dang. I'm sorry Buddy to hear that. But totally understand her point.

I'm super interested @JAA when you say "Who is afraid to go to the ER?  I’ve not heard or read one specific instance of this. " how you're getting such different signals?

well...she's a germaphobe to begin with, then she had all the symptoms of Covid but the test came back inconclusive....so I sort of understand.  That said, even if none of this was going on, the right answer is to pull it out yourself...it wasn't that huge of a deal and she was a good sport about it, but I knew she was serious about NOT going to urgent care when she asked ME to pull it out    Fortunately, she began thinking clearly and decided to pull it out herself.

 

[TheWinz]

Yeah, gloves don't even serve any rational purpose.  You can dip your bare hands directly into a bowl of coronavirus and nothing bad will happen assuming you wash them afterward.  It's a virus, not a toxic chemical.

This one cracked me up.  Well done, monopoly guy

 

[fruity pebbles]

I should have phrased my question differently:

"Who is choosing to not go to the ER, when they should, because of COVID?"

The difference being I think everyone wants to stay away from hospitals.  However, if I broke my ankle and needed to be seen I would heading over there ASAP.

There’s a big gray area between the two at any ED. If you have to go, sure people are still going to go to the ED. But EDs see a lot of people who don’t have health insurance, the homeless, people obtuse to what an ED is really for. Our ED typically had a 100+ people at any given time on a normal evening. Now, 30......maybe. Atleast half there for covid type symptoms. 

 

[Doug B]

new genetic analysis of the virus that causes Covid-19 taken from more than 7,600 patients around the world shows it has been circulating in people since late last year, and must have spread extremely quickly after the first infection.

They also found genetic evidence that supports suspicions the virus was infecting people in Europe, the US and elsewhere weeks or even months before the first official cases were reported in January and February.

Also from the article:

Balloux and colleagues pulled viral sequences from a giant global database that scientists around the world are using to share data. They looked at samples taken at different times and from different places, and said they indicate that the virus first started infecting people at the end of last year.

"This rules out any scenario that assumes SARSCoV-2 may have been in circulation long before it was identified, and hence have already infected large proportions of the population," Balloux's team wrote in their report, published in the journal Infection, Genetics and Evolution.

That is one piece of bad news. Some doctors had hoped the virus was circulating for many months and may have quietly infected many more people than has been reported. That would offer the hope that there might be some immunity already built up in some populations.

"Everyone was hoping for that. I was too," Balloux said.

Their findings pour cold water on such an idea. At the most, 10% of the global population has been exposed to the virus, Balloux estimated.

This is science reporting at its worst. Completely equivocal. People from both aisles will link to this article, feeling like it supports their position.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

This is science reporting at its worst. Completely equivocal. People from both aisles will link to this article, feeling like it supports their position.

Yep.  When it really doesn’t.  It supports a nuanced view, which doesn’t play well in today’s world.

 

[rcam]

Dang. I'm sorry Buddy to hear that. But totally understand her point.

I'm super interested @JAA when you say "Who is afraid to go to the ER?  I’ve not heard or read one specific instance of this. " how you're getting such different signals?

For me, it isn't fear, it is whether or not it is truly needed. I had a pretty bad fall on some ice hidden under snow several months ago. My thumb still isn't entirely back to normal - but my wrist is. When it happened, I had no problem going to an urgent care center for some x-rays (no swelling, but hand/wrist/thumb definitely weren't normal after 7-10 days). However, now, I might extend that 7-10 days out to 14-20 days, maybe even 4 weeks to see if the injuries started to get noticeably better. No different than my grocery shopping runs. Instead of going every 1-2 weeks, I am buying enough for the family to go every 4-5 weeks. That isn't because I am scared of Costco - I am just doing my best to eliminate unnecessary contact with people.

 

[parasaurolophus]

This is science reporting at its worst. Completely equivocal. People from both aisles will link to this article, feeling like it supports their position.

It can support multiple positions. 

People(here) had this way earlier than originally thought. 

Not everybody that thinks they had this in december or january could have had it since only so many could have had it. 

 

[Joe Bryant]

I should have phrased my question differently:

"Who is choosing to not go to the ER, when they should, because of COVID?"

Do you agree that tons of people are way less likely to go to the ER than they would have 6 months ago?

 

[TheWinz]

Do you agree that tons of people are way less likely to go to the ER than they would have 6 months ago?

My wife fell in the shower 3 weeks ago.  I think she broke some ribs.  Still sore and bruised, but otherwise feels fine.  Never went to the ER, but probably would have if not for COVID.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Do you agree that tons of people are way less likely to go to the ER than they would have 6 months ago?

Yes.  6 months ago it was pretty normal for lots of people to visit the ER.  I don’t know a single person who feels comfortable with the idea of an ER visit today.

 

[DJackson10]

Not sure if opening stuff back up state wise is a great idea. I've had a few nurses in my store. Last night one nurse said they finally had no deaths because of the virus for the first time in a about 3 weeks the night before. My friend who does the desk at the Covid section of the hospital said they get really busy on the weekends and with the nicer weather they are getting more cases do to people being outside and not social distancing or using masks. 

You wouldn't believe the amount of people I;ve kicked out of my store for not wearing one either. Trying to use collar of their shirt as a mask is not a mask people. One young female tried playing stupid with us Monday night. We are getting people who wear the mask to get inside then take it off when inside just to get in the store. We got undercover security which is helping stop this but we need someone past 8. Quite frankly we''re open till 10 but I really believe IMHO we should be closing at 9PM. Store is literally dead most nights after 8:30. 

Fun fact we got inventory next Thursday but because of social distancing we get to do it overnight. I'm literally gonna be working from 11PM Wednesday till almost 3PM Thursday now. Fun times 

 

[DJackson10]

making them has kept my mother busy

I'd like to talk about how people shouldn't be wearing gloves at all. Even health professionals are saying not too. Most of my friends in healthcare and those in healthcare I see out in masks no gloves. Wearing gloves just spreads more germs 

 

[TheWinz]

I'd like to talk about how people shouldn't be wearing gloves at all. Even health professionals are saying not too. Most of my friends in healthcare and those in healthcare I see out in masks no gloves. Wearing gloves just spreads more germs 

If I have an open cut on my hand, can the virus climb in?

 

[beer 30]

I should have phrased my question differently:

"Who is choosing to not go to the ER, when they should, because of COVID?"

The difference being I think everyone wants to stay away from hospitals.  However, if I broke my ankle and needed to be seen I would heading over there ASAP.

Heard a quick podcast from a doctor (Dr. Esther Choo) concerning the expected influx of patients as lockdowns start to ease. It's 8 minutes so not long, brings up some good points. The next pod is 10 minutes and she discusses hurricane season which just kicked off and it's anticipated to be a busier than normal season so what happens if we have an event like that in the middle of COVID?

https://www.radio.com/media/audio-channel/how-we-get-to-normal

https://www.radio.com/media/audio-channel/covid-19-andhurricanes

 

[AAABatteries]

This thread is getting kind of bad.  I think I'll go check out the covid-19 thread in the PSF.

This thread was really good for a while and still is at times.  My armchair thoughts are it got bad recently as people got to their tipping point with being isolated and quarantined.  This week has been really hard for me and from talking with co-workers and others I think we all are hitting the proverbial wall in this event.  I told my wife two nights ago I was ready to go lick shopping carts and get it over with.  This is not a good situation for the mental well-being of people.  Is it necessary?  Absolutely - but it sucks and I can only imagine folks who already struggled with depression, suicidal tendencies, and just overall mood issues are taking this really badly.  I consider myself a pretty normal, well-adjusted member of society and I'm struggling big time during certain parts of the day.

 

[jplvr]

Not a good look.

https://www.pix11.com/news/coronavirus/health-workers-that-volunteered-to-come-to-ny-during-pandemic-have-to-pay-state-income-tax-cuomo

 

[Morton Muffley]

Also from the article:

Balloux and colleagues pulled viral sequences from a giant global database that scientists around the world are using to share data. They looked at samples taken at different times and from different places, and said they indicate that the virus first started infecting people at the end of last year.

"This rules out any scenario that assumes SARSCoV-2 may have been in circulation long before it was identified, and hence have already infected large proportions of the population," Balloux's team wrote in their report, published in the journal Infection, Genetics and Evolution.

That is one piece of bad news. Some doctors had hoped the virus was circulating for many months and may have quietly infected many more people than has been reported. That would offer the hope that there might be some immunity already built up in some populations.

"Everyone was hoping for that. I was too," Balloux said.

Their findings pour cold water on such an idea. At the most, 10% of the global population has been exposed to the virus, Balloux estimated.

Well, if ONLY 10% of the global population has been infected, they are ALL in my Facebook feed

 

[eoMMan]

Not sure how this will work out....

Poker room set to reopen on May 11

Update on this....they decided to NOT open the poker room.  My guess is they got a ton of negative feedback.

 

[DJackson10]

If I have an open cut on my hand, can the virus climb in?

Its called a bandage. I already posted an article from yahoo on here about wearing gloves a couple of weeks ago and why you shouldn't. Most people Dom't use or take them off properly either. 

 

[Doug B]

If I have an open cut on my hand, can the virus climb in?

Nope.

 

[Doug B]

This is science reporting at its worst. Completely equivocal. People from both aisles will link to this article, feeling like it supports their position.

It can support multiple positions. 

People(here) had this way earlier than originally thought. 

Define "way earlier".

I know we don't necessarily trust China's public statements ... but if we're going to break their internal Patient Zero timeline (tail end of November 2019), the science has to be unassailable and corroborated among dozens of separate researchers.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Define "way earlier".

I know we don't necessarily trust China's public statements ... but if we're going to break their internal Patient Zero timeline (tail end of November 2019), the science has to be unassailable and corroborated among dozens of separate researchers.

Dont want to get caught up in a silly go round with this. Article says maybe months i believe. In the scope of a 6 month time frame to me two months would be way earlier. Maybe that isnt way earlier to you. 

I really dont understand why this topic has "sides"

I was one of the people that thought the early claims from people were ridiculous. There is now enough out there that it points to of course most people are incorrect, but obviously some people that feel they had it, more than likely did. 

The italian doctors that became convinced they were seeing this back in late November could very well be correct. I kind of mocked their statements, but should not have obviously since such a claim is no longer something that should be considered ridiculous, if it should have been ever. 

 

[tangfoot]

Don't leave your mask in the car seat.

Why not?

 

[moleculo]

Dont want to get caught up in a silly go round with this. Article says maybe months i believe. In the scope of a 6 month time frame to me two months would be way earlier. Maybe that isnt way earlier to you. 

I really dont understand why this topic has "sides"

I was one of the people that thought the early claims from people were ridiculous. There is now enough out there that it points to of course most people are incorrect, but obviously some people that feel they had it, more than likely did. 

The italian doctors that became convinced they were seeing this back in late November could very well be correct. I kind of mocked their statements, but should not have obviously since such a claim is no longer something that should be considered ridiculous, if it should have been ever. 

"They also found genetic evidence that supports suspicions the virus was infecting people in Europe, the US and elsewhere weeks or even months before the first official cases were reported in January and February. It will be impossible to find the "first" patient in any country, Balloux said."

I think the point here is if the first actual cases across the globe were likely to be early January or possibly late December.  Some countries first official cases were in February or March - Denmark, for example, didn't log an official case until Feb 29.  

I have not seen a reputible source claiming the virus was anywhere but China in November.  It's completely possible I'm sure but highly unlikely.  I can more readibly buy December, especially late December.

 

[Sand]

Quarantining for the rest of my life looks better every day.

Why?  In New York the vast majority of people that are catching this and going to the hospital are staying at home.   The infection is coming from inside the house.

I'm starting to wonder if anything we're doing is making much of a difference.  The lockdowns didn't do nearly the damage to the infection rate as thought.  I'd like to see some well done studies on the efficacy of what we tried to do here.  

 

[shader]

Why?  In New York the vast majority of people that are catching this and going to the hospital are staying at home.   The infection is coming from inside the house.

I'm starting to wonder if anything we're doing is making much of a difference.  The lockdowns didn't do nearly the damage to the infection rate as thought.  I'd like to see some well done studies on the efficacy of what we tried to do here.  

I don't understand how you can think that?  Do you see the numbers going down everywhere?  

 

[Sand]

I don't understand how you can think that?  Do you see the numbers going down everywhere?  

Just like the rate of expansion of the epidemic it's the rate of decrease, or the effective R0, that is important.  The lockdowns haven't generated the rate of decrease that was hoped.

 

[nirad3]

I told my wife two nights ago I was ready to go lick shopping carts and get it over with. 

I don't know why but this made me laugh.  I am so over this.  

 

[Doug B]

I think the point here is if the first actual cases across the globe were likely to be early January or possibly late December.  Some countries first official cases were in February or March - Denmark, for example, didn't log an official case until Feb 29.  

I have not seen a reputable source claiming the virus was anywhere but China in November.  It's completely possible I'm sure but highly unlikely.  I can more readily buy December, especially late December.

Exactly this.

Proving that there were certain COVID-19 cases in Europe before, say, Christmas 2019 is a big claim right now. It requires a commensurate level of aggregated evidence -- no single sample, or single study, alone will constitute conclusive proof.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Just like the rate of expansion of the epidemic it's the rate of decrease, or the effective R0, that is important.  The lockdowns haven't generated the rate of decrease that was hoped.

Unfettered, the R0 rate has been estimated between 2 and 3, from the cruise ship and other data, but let's say 1.9 for sake of argument.

Today in NY state, the estimate R0 is approximately 0.7.

Less than 1 is what is needed to effectively slow the spread. Less than .5 for a sustained amount of time can really serve to peter it out. We won't have the time nor the patience for that, unfortunately, the economic toll is too severe.

It seems the lockdowns have done what they needed to do in NY state: Lower R0 and make sure hospital capacity is maintained. Now, other states that tagged in late and are opening up early, pretending they went through the stay at home order? Sure, if they have a rate at 1.0 or higher it will be a pandemic outbreak there.

 

[Doug B]

I don't understand how you can think that?  Do you see the numbers going down everywhere?  

Just like the rate of expansion of the epidemic it's the rate of decrease, or the effective R0, that is important.  The lockdowns haven't generated the rate of decrease that was hoped.

All but five or six states are apparently below an R0 of 1.

 

[The Commish]

All but five or six states are apparently below an R0 of 1.

https://rt.live/

 

[beer 30]

Just read senior leadership in Washington are questioning the way coronavirus deaths are being calculated, suggesting the real numbers are actually lower. Not trying to talk politics but I imagine, as we've seen this thread devolve a bit as the lockdowns meet with resistance, I can imagine this will only fan those flames even more sending more folks back into the streets.

 

[moleculo]

I don't understand how you can think that?  Do you see the numbers going down everywhere?  

Just like the rate of expansion of the epidemic it's the rate of decrease, or the effective R0, that is important.  The lockdowns haven't generated the rate of decrease that was hoped.

All but five or six states are apparently below an R0 of 1.

not to pick nits, but I believe Rt is the parameter you want to discuss - R0 is a parameter of the disease representing transmission assuming no prevention or mitigation.  Rt is the actual rate we have right now.

I also was going to link to rt.live, but it looks like @The Commishbeat me to it. 

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

One thing that @moleculo rightfully pointed out early was that once you hit the peak number of deaths, basically you can multiply by 2 and that will give you roughly the total number of deaths expected in some certain time frame when exponential growth/bell curve has "basically" ended.

U.S. is currently at 71,000 deaths. Models are projecting 135-140K deaths by end of August. If the U.S. on whole (the U.S. is not a region, a state or parts of a state are a region, so I don't even like doing this at a U.S. level, but I digress) has reached the peak and is truly coming down, then the model estimates might finally be more in line with reality.

Having said that, there are certain states that for the sake of anything can you please just go through the 14-21 or so more days of lockdown to get through your curve? It's disrespectful to the states that have been hit hard, locked down hard, and really suffered, but now are truly coming down the bell curve. Based on data.

Another point. The deaths won't just miraculously end in August either. Not even talking about the "second wave", just generally speaking. People die from the flu every year, from upper respiratory infections every year, so Covid deaths aren't going to zero. Even with a vaccine. 

 

[Morton Muffley]

Why?  In New York the vast majority of people that are catching this and going to the hospital are staying at home.   The infection is coming from inside the house.

I'm starting to wonder if anything we're doing is making much of a difference.  The lockdowns didn't do nearly the damage to the infection rate as thought.  I'd like to see some well done studies on the efficacy of what we tried to do here.  

The above is why China removed infected people from the HH.  We were NEVER going to do that (not suggesting that you suggested we should), so our approach was always going to be sub-optimal.  Seems to me that the difference in outcomes between Sweden and Norway not being as substantial as one might have expected is likely attibutable to the within HH spread that continues both during lockdown and non-lockdown.  That is, the fire continues until you run out of ignitable material and it takes longer than expected to burn through ignitable material during a lockdown. 

Apologies for comparing human beings to kindling, but the analogy works even if the comparison is horrific.

 

[The Commish]

Just read senior leadership in Washington are questioning the way coronavirus deaths are being calculated, suggesting the real numbers are actually lower. Not trying to talk politics but I imagine, as we've seen this thread devolve a bit as the lockdowns meet with resistance, I can imagine this will only fan those flames even more sending more folks back into the streets.

What happens when the tail wags the dog...totally weird, but completely expected.  Can't make this stuff up.

 

[Morton Muffley]

All but five or six states are apparently below an R0 of 1.

But besides data, what proof do you have?

sarcasm alert

also, NOT an argument in support of "staying locked down forever" or whatever nonsense will be presumed by my above statement

 

[moleculo]

One thing that @moleculo rightfully pointed out early was that once you hit the peak number of deaths, basically you can multiply by 2 and that will give you roughly the total number of deaths expected in some certain time frame when exponential growth/bell curve has "basically" ended.

U.S. is currently at 71,000 deaths. Models are projecting 135-140K deaths by end of August. If the U.S. on whole (the U.S. is not a region, a state or parts of a state are a region, so I don't even like doing this at a U.S. level, but I digress) has reached the peak and is truly coming down, then the model estimates might finally be more in line with reality.

Having said that, there are certain states that for the sake of anything can you please just go through the 14-21 or so more days of lockdown to get through your curve? It's disrespectful to the states that have been hit hard, locked down hard, and really suffered, but now are truly coming down the bell curve. Based on data.

Another point. The deaths won't just miraculously end in August either. Not even talking about the "second wave", just generally speaking. People die from the flu every year, from upper respiratory infections every year, so Covid deaths aren't going to zero. Even with a vaccine. 

that was assuming a symmetric bell-curve.  I don't believe we have that.  I think individual states may have that, but when you add us all up, the composite will look different.  If you are a stats guy, think of a bimodal distribution but instead of 2 modes there are 50, all with varying amplitudes. 

Put it all together and I think the shape of the curve ends up looking like an early peak followed by a long, slow taper down.  It will not fade as quickly as it ramped up...especially with our waning "lock-down".

 

[Morton Muffley]

One thing that @moleculo rightfully pointed out early was that once you hit the peak number of deaths, basically you can multiply by 2 and that will give you roughly the total number of deaths expected in some certain time frame when exponential growth/bell curve has "basically" ended.

U.S. is currently at 71,000 deaths. Models are projecting 135-140K deaths by end of August. If the U.S. on whole (the U.S. is not a region, a state or parts of a state are a region, so I don't even like doing this at a U.S. level, but I digress) has reached the peak and is truly coming down, then the model estimates might finally be more in line with reality.

Having said that, there are certain states that for the sake of anything can you please just go through the 14-21 or so more days of lockdown to get through your curve? It's disrespectful to the states that have been hit hard, locked down hard, and really suffered, but now are truly coming down the bell curve. Based on data.

Another point. The deaths won't just miraculously end in August either. Not even talking about the "second wave", just generally speaking. People die from the flu every year, from upper respiratory infections every year, so Covid deaths aren't going to zero. Even with a vaccine. 

There are alot of presumptions in the bolded above:

• We can identify the peak in real time (easy to imagine, hard to do)
  
• It's actually a bell curve (not all are)
  
• Behavior is unchanged (not likely)
  
  Fewer SiP advisories would presumably lengthen the curve
  
• More awareness/caution would presumably shorten the curve
  
• Greater medical understanding and general preparedness would presumably shorten the curve
  
• Greater continued understanding and communication of which social distancing measures work best would presumably shorten the curve
  
• Does more outdoor congregation have any impact?  is it positive (i.e hampers spread) or negative (more sociability is a bad thing)?
  
• Etc.
  

The point is, modeling is hard...and it's even harder when the virus is novel, the various behaviors are changing, and the IMPACT of the aforementioned behaviors are not well understood.  

Sorry, @Grace and @moleculo, you have both been fantastic contributors throughout this thread, but I feel the need to push back strongly here as I fear that your above approach is overly simplistic and that the range of outcomes (i.e. deaths) by August remains quite wide given how little understanding we have.  That is, it's possible we see only 30k more deaths by August as many of the above bullets should help lessen the back-end impact.  Then again, all the beneficial bullets above could be completely overwhelmed by a single variable. 

 

[shader]

There are alot of presumptions in the bolded above:

• We can identify the peak in real time (easy to imagine, hard to do)
  
• It's actually a bell curve (not all are)
  
• Behavior is unchanged (not likely)
  
  Fewer SiP advisories would presumably lengthen the curve
  
• More awareness/caution would presumably shorten the curve
  
• Greater medical understanding and general preparedness would presumably shorten the curve
  
• Greater continued understanding and communication of which social distancing measures work best would presumably shorten the curve
  
• Does more outdoor congregation have any impact?  is it positive (i.e hampers spread) or negative (more sociability is a bad thing)?
  
• Etc.
  

The point is, modeling is hard...and it's even harder when the virus is novel, the various behaviors are changing, and the IMPACT of the aforementioned behaviors are not well understood.  

Sorry, @Grace and @moleculo, you have both been fantastic contributors throughout this thread, but I feel the need to push back strongly here as I fear that your above approach is overly simplistic and that the range of outcomes (i.e. deaths) by August remains quite wide given how little understanding we have.  That is, it's possible we see only 30k more deaths by August as many of the above bullets should help lessen the back-end impact.  Then again, all the beneficial bullets above could be completely overwhelmed by a single variable. 

Modeling is very hard.  I don't envy anyone in power right now for the decisions that have to be made.