*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (21 Viewers)

[shader]

US deaths today (via Worldometer) looking very promising.  Was cautiously optimistic yesterday, but now with a second day of low numbers I'd say that the timing of the SiP lift seems nearly perfect.  Fully expect we'll see stead growth as more things open up but also nothing like the initial curve as many (not all) will be much more diligent.  Wish I had more faith in our testing and contact tracing, but living here in MA I feel good about driving the numbers down low enough to make contact tracing a viable solution.  Expect that we'll learn alot over the next 4-6 weeks about which measures work best given the variety of actions across countries and states.    

The deaths have definitely come down and the worst of the first wave is definitely behind us.

I'm watching TN and Georgia quite closely.  TN had a little spike in active cases today, which is surprising for a Monday (traditionally a lower day).  

For me, this has now come down to a battle between keeping the R0 as low as possible, while getting the highest bang for the buck in the economy.  I feel like there's no easy solution.  The only way to keep the R0 around 1 or lower is to continue activities that will decimate the economy.  I saw a stat that even with the "reopening" in TN, restaurants are down over 80% from pre-covid days.  That is good and bad. 

It's good in that the R0 is unlikely to get anywehre near pre-covid numbers.

It's bad in that it's catastrophic for the economy.  If we've re-opened and can't get higher than this, that doesn't bode well for the economy.  

 

[Morton Muffley]

The deaths have definitely come down and the worst of the first wave is definitely behind us.

I'm watching TN and Georgia quite closely.  TN had a little spike in active cases today, which is surprising for a Monday (traditionally a lower day).  

For me, this has now come down to a battle between keeping the R0 as low as possible, while getting the highest bang for the buck in the economy.  I feel like there's no easy solution.  The only way to keep the R0 around 1 or lower is to continue activities that will decimate the economy.  I saw a stat that even with the "reopening" in TN, restaurants are down over 80% from pre-covid days.  That is good and bad. 

It's good in that the R0 is unlikely to get anywehre near pre-covid numbers.

It's bad in that it's catastrophic for the economy.  If we've re-opened and can't get higher than this, that doesn't bode well for the economy.  

Don't understand what you mean by the bolded.

As for the economy, 99.99% of citizens are not viewing this thread.  IOW, most aren't going to change behaviors based upon a sound understanding of the numbers (RO, hospitalizations, confirmed cases, whatever), they ARE going to act based upon how those around them act.  If fully expect to see restaurant revenues to follow the below trajectory:

• Pre-Covid = 100%
  
• During Covid =10-20% via take-out (note: this is an average and as such will have a wide range based upon type)
  
• Weeks 1-2 of Re-opening: 20-30%
  
• Weeks 3-4 of Re-opening: 30-40%
  
• Weeks 4-8 of Re-opening: 40-60%
  
• Weeks 9+ of Re-opening: 60-75%
  

If there is a local outbreak then I'd expect there NOT to be another SiP, but that restaurants would revert to Weeks 1-2 above and start the whole process all over again

 

[Statorama]

At least the Cubs are still tied for first.

Now for some real "inside baseball" Virologist Chris Von Csefalvay tears apart the code that produced Ferguson's model

 

[Statorama]

For the doom and gloomers with an eye on Georgia

Georgia reported the lowest number of hospitalized coronavirus patients seen in more than a month on Saturday

Today marks the lowest number of COVID-19 positive patients currently hospitalized statewide (1,203) since hospitals began reporting this data on April 8th.

Today also marks the lowest total of ventilators in use (897 with 1,945 available).

 

[Penguin]

Up to 5 NY Children Dead, 93 Sickened by Rare COVID-Related Illness

Hopefully this doesn't explode

 

[ChiefD]

Been keeping an eye on this graph, which someone posted days ago.  Kansas finally fell below that 1.0 threshold over the weekend. So this graph has been moving in the right direction.

Not sure if its data is any more reliable than anything else out there, but it seems to correlate with what I'm seeing with my state and county numbers here locally. 

 

[jamny]

For the doom and gloomers with an eye on Georgia

Georgia reported the lowest number of hospitalized coronavirus patients seen in more than a month on Saturday

Good numbers but is it possible that 897 of the state's 1203 patients are on ventilators? Seems like a high percentage.

 

[shader]

Up to 5 NY Children Dead, 93 Sickened by Rare COVID-Related Illness

Hopefully this doesn't explode

I keep ignoring this story and hoping it will go away.  This virus beginning to attack children is the nightmare of all nightmare scenarios.  I hope it’s not related.

 

[shader]

For the doom and gloomers with an eye on Georgia

Georgia reported the lowest number of hospitalized coronavirus patients seen in more than a month on Saturday

People with an eye on Georgia won’t be looking at hospitalized patients, but new cases. Hospitalization rates are a lagging indicator, cmon we’ve known this for months. 

 

[jamny]

Been keeping an eye on this graph, which someone posted days ago.  Kansas finally fell below that 1.0 threshold over the weekend. So this graph has been moving in the right direction.

Not sure if its data is any more reliable than anything else out there, but it seems to correlate with what I'm seeing with my state and county numbers here locally. 

Yes, I posted yesterday that only Wyoming and Minnesota were at or above 1.0 but Maine and Nebraska are in the red again. I guess they'll straddle it for a little before hopefully falling below again.

 

[CR69]

I keep ignoring this story and hoping it will go away.  This virus beginning to attack children is the nightmare of all nightmare scenarios.  I hope it’s not related.

From the article: Doctors in the state say children are not presenting with symptoms until 4 to 6 weeks after exposure to the virus.

Seriously, #### COVID-19. 

 

[gump]

Haven’t posted an All In Challenge update in a while...up to $40M raised. The latest item is a really cool VIP experience with Tiger Woods.

 

[matuski]

BREAKING NEWS: researchers have found world’s saddest attempt at a brag as man goes outside to shop and then gloats about it on a message board full of anonymous people 

Literally lol'd..  

Not gloating/bragging, I actually appreciated it... it did wonders for me to go back and do the things my family and I normally do.

You should try it, like I said... it was great.  I imagine you would enjoy it too.  You certainly shouldn't feel threatened by that post.

 

[matuski]

I’m doing the antibody test right now.

I doubt I’m positive as I’ve been pretty well quarantined, but

Just got my antibody test results.

Negative damnit.

 

[JbizzleMan]

Just got my antibody test results.

Negative damnit.

That's what I'm expecting too. 

 

[tonydead]

People with an eye on Georgia won’t be looking at hospitalized patients, but new cases. Hospitalization rates are a lagging indicator, cmon we’ve known this for months. 

And new cases increase with the amount of testing done, which Georgia is doing in record numbers right now.

 

[Capella]

Literally lol'd..  

Not gloating/bragging, I actually appreciated it... it did wonders for me to go back and do the things my family and I normally do.

You should try it, like I said... it was great.  I imagine you would enjoy it too.  You certainly shouldn't feel threatened by that post.

Not threatened. I go to the lake and my pool every day. 

 

[matuski]

Not threatened. I go to the lake and my pool every day. 

Awesome.

Are you bragging?  Is it sad?

Haha.. for me it was a refreshing change.  I don't have a pool, don't have a boat.

Sorry if I ruined the theme of the thread with the positive stuff.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I found this argument compelling, but even though I'm unfamiliar with this blog I'm pretty confident he's very slanted from the right (duh). 

In the debate about whether deaths have been over counted or under counted, I've firmly believed in the latter. This read is the first thing I've seen which makes me doubt that.

https://www.conservativereview.com/news/horowitz-bombshell-report-dr-birx-believes-cdc-inflating-death-numbers-much-25/?utm_content=bufferd8418&utm_medium=referral&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=tw-cr

I also don't know anything about that blog, but unless Birx says something publicly I'm gonna have to call BS - surely she is aware of most of the factors contributing to under- and over- counting, as well as tracking of excess deaths relative to prior years. Moreover, the history of large scale outbreaks is certainly on the side of those who suspect COVID deaths are grossly under reported.

And to restate for the umpteenth time, focusing on death rate isn't particularly useful when determining mitigation strategies for the pandemic. We'll get an idea retrospectively, but even if it is way lower than advertised, the virus' ability to rapidly overwhelm healthcare facilities is what poses the greatest risk to the general population.

 

[FBG26]

Good numbers but is it possible that 897 of the state's 1203 patients are on ventilators? Seems like a high percentage.

Probably 897 ventilators for all types of patients, not just covid (just guessing). 

 

[parasaurolophus]

WI easing up some stuff. All retail locations that are outside of an enclosed mall can be open, but have a maximum of 5 people shopping.

This is great news for boutique shops and specialty stores. 

All locations can be open for curbside. 

 

[Tolstoy]

https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
interesting read about the most likely places/activities for spread

 

[[icon]]

Have a week of furlough to kill next week, and the GF has to burn.5 vacation days... soooooo we are going on a road trip to visit a couple friends in Knoxville / Asheville... catch some of the Blue Ridge Parkway. 

Driving is Easy to keep safe. Gas stops are easy. Restroom breaks are the "Riskiest" aspect. 

Getting hotel rooms, and trusting the properties to do a decent job of sanitizing. Prob will wipe things down upon arrival. 

GF is worried about spending extended time in folks houses, and with using their bathrooms. Working on easing up those nerves of hers a little bit. 
 

 

[Battersbox]

I also don't know anything about that blog, but unless Birx says something publicly I'm gonna have to call BS - surely she is aware of most of the factors contributing to under- and over- counting, as well as tracking of excess deaths relative to prior years. Moreover, the history of large scale outbreaks is certainly on the side of those who suspect COVID deaths are grossly under reported.

And to restate for the umpteenth time, focusing on death rate isn't particularly useful when determining mitigation strategies for the pandemic. We'll get an idea retrospectively, but even if it is way lower than advertised, the virus' ability to rapidly overwhelm healthcare facilities is what poses the greatest risk to the general population.

I agree this part of the write-up also smells funny to me. There was a link embedded to the Washington Post story to which the writer was referring, but it was paywalled.

In any case, I'm personally so tired of anonymous sources in D.C. It seems the frequency of anonymous, unverifiable sourcing is ever increasing and is too often the crutch of most journalists.

 

[tri-man 47]

Some earlier discussion here about the better numbers at Covid worldometers, although with late reporting, the numbers weren't down too significantly at 74,000 cases and 3,400 deaths ...but still on the positive end and certainly better than the near 100K days late last week.  Something I noticed today was how a number of countries are about to have their reported cases rise above various European countries (and China) where much of the early activity occurred:

-Russia will pass the U.K. tomorrow (and probably Spain in a week, after just passing Italy)

-Brazil will move past Germany and then France in the next couple of days

-India will pass China's reported cases in a few days

-Saudi Arabia should pass the Netherlands tomorrow

-Ecuador and Chile will pass Portugal in the next day or two

The above countries' cases per million are still not as high, but still a lot of growth in reported activity around the world.

 

[Battersbox]

I also don't know anything about that blog, but unless Birx says something publicly I'm gonna have to call BS - surely she is aware of most of the factors contributing to under- and over- counting, as well as tracking of excess deaths relative to prior years. Moreover, the history of large scale outbreaks is certainly on the side of those who suspect COVID deaths are grossly under reported.

And to restate for the umpteenth time, focusing on death rate isn't particularly useful when determining mitigation strategies for the pandemic. We'll get an idea retrospectively, but even if it is way lower than advertised, the virus' ability to rapidly overwhelm healthcare facilities is what poses the greatest risk to the general population.

One more thought here though. Focusing on death rate may not have been useful at first because everyone agreed not overwhelming healthcare was job one. That was only prudent since the death rate could certainly have very little to do with immediate swarms of very sick people who may or may not die. But as various governors have shifted the narrative of defending 'lockdowns' it is absolutely something which is relevant. Public sentiment guides the actions of governors to some greater or lesser degree. If the people in a particular state believe the death rate is much lower than what they believed 2 months ago and they don't see an overwhelmed local health system, they are far more likely to exert pressure to remove restrictions. For that reason I personally believe the sooner we can get to the true IFR of Covid, the better. Obviously, we all want it to be as low as possible. But, if it really is 1%, 1.5%, or higher, the sooner that can be proved, the better.

 

[CR69]

I agree this part of the write-up also smells funny to me. There was a link embedded to the Washington Post story to which the writer was referring, but it was paywalled.

In any case, I'm personally so tired of anonymous sources in D.C. It seems the frequency of anonymous, unverifiable sourcing is ever increasing and is too often the crutch of most journalists.

Well considering the fact that anyone who puts their name on a statement that goes against a certain narrative ends up being fired can you blame them?

 

[Battersbox]

Well considering the fact that anyone who puts their name on a statement that goes against a certain narrative ends up being fired can you blame them?

I get that. But still, sooner or later if you are constantly leaking maybe that's not a job you want anymore anyway.

I'm no student of journalism history, but I'd be curious if leak frequency has risen substantially over the past 10-20 years. I'm not talking about necessarily just D.C./Trumpworld, though of course government and politics is the first realm which comes to mind.

 

[TheWinz]

Have a week of furlough to kill next week, and the GF has to burn.5 vacation days... soooooo we are going on a road trip to visit a couple friends in Knoxville / Asheville... catch some of the Blue Ridge Parkway. 

Driving is Easy to keep safe. Gas stops are easy. Restroom breaks are the "Riskiest" aspect. 

Getting hotel rooms, and trusting the properties to do a decent job of sanitizing. Prob will wipe things down upon arrival. 

GF is worried about spending extended time in folks houses, and with using their bathrooms. Working on easing up those nerves of hers a little bit. 

I wouldn't worry about using your friend's bathrooms, because once your in their house, you will either contract the virus or you won't.  If you do, it probably won't be from using their bathroom.  As for restroom breaks while driving, take a roll of TP and use the side of the road.

 

[[scooter]]

Well considering the fact that anyone who puts their name on a statement that goes against a certain narrative ends up being fired can you blame them?

I get that. But still, sooner or later if you are constantly leaking maybe that's not a job you want anymore anyway.

I'm no student of journalism history, but I'd be curious if leak frequency has risen substantially over the past 10-20 years. I'm not talking about necessarily just D.C./Trumpworld, though of course government and politics is the first realm which comes to mind.

It's easier to leak stories today, because there are so many other ways to get a story out. You don't have to go to the media, you can do it yourself if you want to.

The reason why we hear more about "anonymous sources" in the current environment is because of the phrases "fake news" and "enemy of the people". I'll refrain from expanding on that, out of respect to the spirit of this thread.

In any event, I don't doubt that Birx criticized the CDC during a meeting. (Why don't I doubt it? Because Birx hasn't refuted the story, which is a tell-tale sign that it happened.) However, without proper context, it would not be appropriate to jump to conclusions about what she meant.

 

[Biff84]

I wouldn't worry about using your friend's bathrooms, because once your in their house, you will either contract the virus or you won't.  If you do, it probably won't be from using their bathroom.  As for restroom breaks while driving, take a roll of TP and use the side of the road.

This. When you visit someone for a good period of time, you join their circle. You can decrease your risk but you can’t fully eliminate it. As for the public restrooms, I wouldn’t worry too much. Touch as little as you can, don’t touch your phone or anything else while in the bathroom, wash your hands good and sanitize them before getting back into the car. If you’re worried, bring wipes and wipe all surfaces before touching.

I’m quite paranoid about bringing the virus into the house and increasing my family’s risk and take some extreme measures. But there’s a lot that can be done safely if you take proper precautions. 

 

[Battersbox]

It's easier to leak stories today, because there are so many other ways to get a story out. You don't have to go to the media, you can do it yourself if you want to.

The reason why we hear more about "anonymous sources" in the current environment is because of the phrases "fake news" and "enemy of the people". I'll refrain from expanding on that, out of respect to the spirit of this thread.

In any event, I don't doubt that Birx criticized the CDC during a meeting. (Why don't I doubt it? Because Birx hasn't refuted the story, which is a tell-tale sign that it happened.) However, without proper context, it would not be appropriate to jump to conclusions about what she meant.

So you're saying the prevalence of 'anonymous sources' is because of fake news and enemy of the people tropes? Feels like a chicken/egg situation to me. (And no, I'm not a Trump apologist despite how this might sound). 

I'm just genuinely curious if anyone has ever tried to quantify the amount of anonymous sources we see in news from major news outlets compared to previous eras. Maybe it's always been the same, but it really doesn't feel like it.

 

[[scooter]]

It's easier to leak stories today, because there are so many other ways to get a story out. You don't have to go to the media, you can do it yourself if you want to.

The reason why we hear more about "anonymous sources" in the current environment is because of the phrases "fake news" and "enemy of the people". I'll refrain from expanding on that, out of respect to the spirit of this thread.

In any event, I don't doubt that Birx criticized the CDC during a meeting. (Why don't I doubt it? Because Birx hasn't refuted the story, which is a tell-tale sign that it happened.) However, without proper context, it would not be appropriate to jump to conclusions about what she meant.

So you're saying the prevalence of 'anonymous sources' is because of fake news and enemy of the people tropes? Feels like a chicken/egg situation to me. (And no, I'm not a Trump apologist despite how this might sound). 

The use of anonymous sources is just as common today as it was 8 years ago. The difference is that 8 years ago, it was rare to attack the source and say "Fake News!" Because that would get you laughed out of town.

 

[zftcg]

I get that. But still, sooner or later if you are constantly leaking maybe that's not a job you want anymore anyway.

I'm no student of journalism history, but I'd be curious if leak frequency has risen substantially over the past 10-20 years. I'm not talking about necessarily just D.C./Trumpworld, though of course government and politics is the first realm which comes to mind.

The psychology around leaking is kind of fascinating. Sometimes people leak to puff themselves up. Sometimes they leak to tear others down. Sometimes (like if they're working on a failing campaign) it's to shift blame away from themselves and onto others. My favorite among the "campaigns in disarray" genre are the people whose unsolicited advice isn't being taken who then leak to the press about how dumb the campaign leadership is.

And then there's the current administration. Trying not to get too political in the FFA, but there really is some strange dynamic where people who are working for the president really don't seem to like him. The most famous example, of course, was the anonymous NYT op-ed writer. I guess these people convince themselves that their presence is preventing even worse things from happening, but that definitely seems like a situation where the first line of your post seems appropriate: If you hate the guy so much, what are you doing working there? Also, again leaving politics aside, the guy who wrote that op-ed didn't come across as principled, he came across as a spineless self-serving jerk. I feel like that was the one thing that finally brought this country together: disdain for that anonymous loser. 

To answer your other question, I would guess that the volume has gone up, but that's mostly because the number of outlets has gone up. There have always been leakers. Thankfully, there has been at least a mini-backlash in recent years against some of the more egregious examples ("'The president has really done a great job.' said a senior administration official who asked not to be named.")

 

[zftcg]

I'm just genuinely curious if anyone has ever tried to quantify the amount of anonymous sources we see in news from major news outlets compared to previous eras. Maybe it's always been the same, but it really doesn't feel like it.

No idea, but if anyone has, it's probably Jack Shafer.

 

[matuski]

Number of recoveries surpass active cases here. 

 

[TheWinz]

This. When you visit someone for a good period of time, you join their circle. You can decrease your risk but you can’t fully eliminate it. As for the public restrooms, I wouldn’t worry too much. Touch as little as you can, don’t touch your phone or anything else while in the bathroom, wash your hands good and sanitize them before getting back into the car. If you’re worried, bring wipes and wipe all surfaces before touching.

I’m quite paranoid about bringing the virus into the house and increasing my family’s risk and take some extreme measures. But there’s a lot that can be done safely if you take proper precautions. 

I was kinda joking about the pit stops on the highway, but if it's just to go #1 for a man, I'm pulling the car over.

And yes, once you enter a friend's house, they become part of your family, and vice versa.  Unless you visit your friends wearing a hazmat suit.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Some earlier discussion here about the better numbers at Covid worldometers, although with late reporting, the numbers weren't down too significantly at 74,000 cases and 3,400 deaths ...but still on the positive end and certainly better than the near 100K days late last week.  Something I noticed today was how a number of countries are about to have their reported cases rise above various European countries (and China) where much of the early activity occurred:

-Russia will pass the U.K. tomorrow (and probably Spain in a week, after just passing Italy)

-Brazil will move past Germany and then France in the next couple of days

-India will pass China's reported cases in a few days

-Saudi Arabia should pass the Netherlands tomorrow

-Ecuador and Chile will pass Portugal in the next day or two

The above countries' cases per million are still not as high, but still a lot of growth in reported activity around the world.

Brazil will probably pass the US in deaths eventually.  I haven’t modeled it yet, but that’s what my very rough math suggests.

India probably has as many total cases as the US already, we just don’t know it (yet) due to their low testing rates (per capita).

 

[[icon]]

I wouldn't worry about using your friend's bathrooms, because once your in their house, you will either contract the virus or you won't.  If you do, it probably won't be from using their bathroom.  As for restroom breaks while driving, take a roll of TP and use the side of the road.

The plan for 2 of the 3 stops is to only set foot inside the house to use the restroom. We are getting a room at a hotel with a nice outdoor pool at stop 1 and inviting her sister's family to hang for the day. Goal is swimming/beers/games/takeout/etc. 

2nd stop is good buddy and his wife in Asheville. He is a musician and does a weekly Friday Happy Hour stream "concert" during this. We will prob come hang inside Their living room for the show, but otherwise, hang on their huge wraparound porch outside. 

3rd stop in Knoxville won't be going to her friend's house at all. Meeting up for a day hike, then hopefully hitting a patio place for dinner. 

Cant eliminate risk, but keeping it mostly outside and keeping some distance helps reduce by a factor. 

Rest stops will be masked w gloves. Discard and sanitize before re-entering car. I realize gloves are redundant if sanitizing, but I have plenty it's one more layer. 

This. When you visit someone for a good period of time, you join their circle. You can decrease your risk but you can’t fully eliminate it. As for the public restrooms, I wouldn’t worry too much. Touch as little as you can, don’t touch your phone or anything else while in the bathroom, wash your hands good and sanitize them before getting back into the car. If you’re worried, bring wipes and wipe all surfaces before touching.

I’m quite paranoid about bringing the virus into the house and increasing my family’s risk and take some extreme measures. But there’s a lot that can be done safely if you take proper precautions. 

Agreed. I'm definitely more in the camp of being able to mitigate risk through precautions.

I really do think keeping things mostly outside and distanced can reduce the "circle factor" odds of transmission somewhat. Certainly still risk of sitting in reasonably close proximity and talking/laughing for hours... but sunlight/breeze/distance should help somewhat. 

I was kinda joking about the pit stops on the highway, but if it's just to go #1 for a man, I'm pulling the car over.

And yes, once you enter a friend's house, they become part of your family, and vice versa.  Unless you visit your friends wearing a hazmat suit.

Yep I'm pissing outside at stops and at friends houses (all stops are fairly rural).    

 

[TheWinz]

Wife just came down very quickly with chills, a fever of 101.5, body aches, and nausea.  All pretty much at the same time, in only a few hrs.  Ideas?

 

[Rubiobot]

Wife just came down very quickly with chills, a fever of 101.5, body aches, and nausea.  All pretty much at the same time, in only a few hrs.  Ideas?

If it were me I would call my doctor and try to get tested. She may or may not have it but I would want to know for sure.

 

[zftcg]

Wife just came down very quickly with chills, a fever of 101.5, body aches, and nausea.  All pretty much at the same time, in only a few hrs.  Ideas?

Oh man, I’m sorry to hear that. I just went through this with my dad last month and I have some detailed suggestions, which I’ll try to write out when I’m not on my phone, but for now I’ll just say I’m sending good thoughts your wife’s way. Hope it’s not Covid and even if it is, hope she gets better soon. (Remember that even among high risk groups, the odds are still in your favor for a full recovery.)

 

[Battersbox]

No idea, but if anyone has, it's probably Jack Shafer.

Thanks for that, I'll read up on him.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

So... the office sent out a super official message saying we're reopening next week.

I think I'll sit it out another week just to see how it plays out.

 

[themeanmachine]

We Know Everything – And Nothing – About Covid

Interesting article - you can disagree with some of his theories about hospital transmission, and overreacting to the threat of casual spread. But I think he is 100% correct about our lack of data, and how worthless our modeling is when the data is poor. Some of the daily stats I see can so easily be misunderstood - # of new cases is meaningless if not in the context of # of tests, and even those tests, are results being reported quickly? How long ago were they taken? Death total drop right after the weekend because the people who tabulate weren't at work. So much bad data, old data, trying to take old and new data and clump it all together. It's nearly impossible to make rational decisions about what to do when the data isn't robust and clearly reported.

 

[ChiefD]

Have a week of furlough to kill next week, and the GF has to burn.5 vacation days... soooooo we are going on a road trip to visit a couple friends in Knoxville / Asheville... catch some of the Blue Ridge Parkway. 

Driving is Easy to keep safe. Gas stops are easy. Restroom breaks are the "Riskiest" aspect. 

Getting hotel rooms, and trusting the properties to do a decent job of sanitizing. Prob will wipe things down upon arrival. 

GF is worried about spending extended time in folks houses, and with using their bathrooms. Working on easing up those nerves of hers a little bit. 
 

Our family is driving to our normal fishing resort in Central Minnesota here in about 3 weeks. For us it's a 10 hour drive. Here is what our protocols are going to be:

1. Gas stops are for gas only. I get out of the car, use a wipe on the gas handle, hand sanitize when I get back in.

2. Rest areas are for bathroom breaks. For our route, the doors are all electronic to get in the building. There are no doors to open to get into the bathroom - they have those open entrances. Go to the bathroom. Wash up. Then hand sanitize before we get into the car. We will wear face masks through the whole thing.

3. We are bringing our own lunch and eating in the car.

4. Once we get to the cabin, wife will hit the grocery store by herself the next day. We will bring dinner for the first night and pack as much of the basics as room allows. That will limit time in the grocery store.

5. This resort only has 12 cabins. It's pretty isolated. We may need to go into town one more time (wife - she just navigates grocery stores more efficiently than I do). 

6. Repeat process coming home. 

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Wife just came down very quickly with chills, a fever of 101.5, body aches, and nausea.  All pretty much at the same time, in only a few hrs.  Ideas?

(not a doctor)

First, I'm sorry to hear it Winz -- that really sucks.

If it were my wife we'd both get tested right away and isolate (100%) until we got the results.

And if she had any shortness of breath we'd immediately go to the ER.

Also, remember that the large majority of test are negative.  And even if it is COVID, most people have several days of fever and get better.

 

[CR69]

So... the office sent out a super official message saying we're reopening next week.

I think I'll sit it out another week just to see how it plays out.

I'm in a similar boat. My boss already went back to the office and I know a couple people from our team are itching to go back as well. I'll probably wait 2-3 weeks after everyone goes back since our company is still encouraging WFH. 

 

[beer 30]

Have a week of furlough to kill next week, and the GF has to burn.5 vacation days... soooooo we are going on a road trip to visit a couple friends in Knoxville / Asheville... catch some of the Blue Ridge Parkway.

Blue Ridge Parkway was beautiful this weekend. Had a buddy do some running up that way and he posted pics. Enjoy

Our family is driving to our normal fishing resort in Central Minnesota here in about 3 weeks. For us it's a 10 hour drive. Here is what our protocols are going to be:

1. Gas stops are for gas only. I get out of the car, use a wipe on the gas handle, hand sanitize when I get back in.

2. Rest areas are for bathroom breaks. For our route, the doors are all electronic to get in the building. There are no doors to open to get into the bathroom - they have those open entrances. Go to the bathroom. Wash up. Then hand sanitize before we get into the car. We will wear face masks through the whole thing.

3. We are bringing our own lunch and eating in the car.

4. Once we get to the cabin, wife will hit the grocery store by herself the next day. We will bring dinner for the first night and pack as much of the basics as room allows. That will limit time in the grocery store.

5. This resort only has 12 cabins. It's pretty isolated. We may need to go into town one more time (wife - she just navigates grocery stores more efficiently than I do). 

6. Repeat process coming home. 

Congratulations on all your success   

 

[gianmarco]

Misconception about herd immunity.

Not sure if posted yet as I've stopped checking in here frequently.  It was put out by Johns Hopkins.

We have listened with concern to voices erroneously suggesting that herd immunity may “soon slow the spread”1 of COVID-19. For example, Rush Limbaugh2 recently claimed that “herd immunity has occurred in California.” As infectious disease epidemiologists, we wish to state clearly that herd immunity against COVID-19 will not be achieved at a population level in 2020, barring a public health catastrophe.

Although more than 2.5 million confirmed cases of COVID-19 have been reported worldwide, studies suggest that (as of early April 2020) no more than 2-4%3–5 of any country’s population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2 (the coronavirus that causes COVID-19). Even in hotspots like New York City that have been hit hardest by the pandemic, initial studies suggest that perhaps 15-21%6,7 of people have been exposed so far. In getting to that level of exposure, more than 17,500 of the 8.4 million people in New York City (about 1 in every 500 New Yorkers) have died, with the overall death rate in the city suggesting deaths may be undercounted and mortality may be even higher.8

Some have entertained the idea of “controlled voluntary infection,”9 akin to the “chickenpox parties” of the 1980s. However, COVID-19 is 100 times more lethal than the chickenpox. For example, on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, the mortality rate among those infected with SARS-CoV-2 was 1%. Someone who goes to a “coronavirus party” to get infected would not only be substantially increasing their own chance of dying in the next month, they would also be putting their families and friends at risk. COVID-19 is now the leading cause of death in the United States, killing almost 2,000 Americans every day.8 Chickenpox never killed more than 150 Americans in a year.9

To reach herd immunity for COVID-19, likely 70% or more of the population would need to be immune. Without a vaccine, over 200 million Americans would have to get infected before we reach this threshold. Put another way, even if the current pace of the COVID-19 pandemic continues in the United States – with over 25,000 confirmed cases a day – it will be well into 2021 before we reach herd immunity. If current daily death rates continue, over half a million Americans would be dead from COVID-19 by that time.

As we discuss when and how to phase in re-opening,10 it is important to understand how vulnerable we remain. Increased testing will help us better understand the scope of infection, but it is clear this pandemic is still only beginning to unfold.