worrierking
Footballguy
These Morningstar updates are so good. So much better than regular media, which sensationalizes everything.Long article from Morningstar about testing and vaccines: Link
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These Morningstar updates are so good. So much better than regular media, which sensationalizes everything.Long article from Morningstar about testing and vaccines: Link
This has to make you rethink the idea of wanting to test positive for antibodies.Morton Muffley said:All that may be true, but if so then there are also a lot of people dying with many, many years left because a recent study showed that the average Covid death takes more than a decade off of the person's expected life.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/people-coronavirus-dying-10-years-earlier-naturally-study/story?id=70511494
Why?This has to make you rethink the idea of wanting to test positive for antibodies.
No, I'm saying I don't think the hospital system will be overwhelmed from new cases due to states opening up. I'm sure there will be some state that say we can't lockdown again because it would crush our economy but in general, I don't think there will be widespread infections causing an overwhelming of the system. This also assumes social distancing rulesAre you saying there won’t be another lockdown because of the economy? Not sure I understand. And yes, hospitals of course will get overwhelmed if lockdowns don’t happen in areas where the virus reappears and starts to spread quickly. It’s a certainty
I was thinking about this the other day. If I were voting I'd definitely be on board for the Nobel but for person of the year I think you have to give it to "Patient Zero" with a black silhouette photo.Where can I bet on Dr. Fauci winning the Nobel Peace and Lol, I’d it’s still a thing, Time person of the year.
Exactly. What’s the average life lost for automobile accidents? I don’t get a study of people dying from Covid 19 as something shocking that people have less life expectancy. Duh, they are dying from a novel virus, something not accounted for yet. Of course they are dying prematurely.Why?
I think you are misinterpreting. The study isn’t saying that if you get CV and recover you lose years off of future life expectancy. It’s saying that these people would have died many years from now. It’s trying to thwart the whole only people who were already going to die soon are dying. I think that was a March topic so I don’t think this study is meaningful at all. What you seem to be asserting is something we won’t know for years when people who recovered are tracked to see if they die earlier than expected of something else.This has to make you rethink the idea of wanting to test positive for antibodies.
I know this story has been updated with other facts but I'm what I'm posting doesn't necessarily concern the details of this article, just the example of someone pushing back about wearing a mask. I think one of the best answers to this issue was posted by @tri-man 47 over the weekend and I don't want it to get lost in 800 pages:And then you have these type of people
SOMERS POINT WOMAN CHARGED FOR NOT WEARING MASK IN STORE
EDDIE DAVIS
May 11, 2020
A Somers Point woman was spotlighted by the New Jersey Attorney General's office for bad behavior after refusing to wear a face mask in a local store and coughing in the face of another customer.
In a weekly rundown of covid-19 law enforcement issues in the state, Shakiya J. Duncan, 28, of Somers Point is listed for being charged on May 6 by the Somers Point Police with disorderly conduct and violating the emergency orders.
The report says Duncan was told several times by employees of Big Lots to wear a mask but refused to wear one. Duncan was standing very close to the woman in front of her in the checkout line, and when that woman asked her to please step back, Duncan allegedly screamed at her, cursed, and leaned forward to cough in the victim’s face.
What seems odd to me is that those who insist on not wearing a mask at a store ...
They drove to the store, generally obeying the speed limit; they stopped at red lights; they parked between the yellow lines; they wore a shirt and shoes into the store. But wear a mask? "Don't tell me what to do!"
I used this example today when replying to someone who was questioning wearing a mask when required by a business on a Facebook post. Think it's brilliant but I have mad tri man love so take it with a grain of salt
Sorry to hear...cancer sucks and I really hate brain cancer.Please forgive my , but since I posted about my brother suffering with both COVID-19 and cancer, I thought I'd update.
He beat COVID-19 (praise God!), but the cancer has worked its way into his brain and he's in a lot of pain. According to my sister, the prognosis is poor.
I think "lockdown" needs to be explained. I think it should be possible to reduce SIP and not overwhelm the healthcare system. I think it's a delicate balance that our leaders will have to work on. I don't think anybody knows the answer.Are you saying there won’t be another lockdown because of the economy? Not sure I understand. And yes, hospitals of course will get overwhelmed if lockdowns don’t happen in areas where the virus reappears and starts to spread quickly. It’s a certainty
Got it - thanks. I was thinking of what they've said around kidney damage and lung scarring and the like and how that will impact life expectancy.I think you are misinterpreting. The study isn’t saying that if you get CV and recover you lose years off of future life expectancy. It’s saying that these people would have died many years from now. It’s trying to thwart the whole only people who were already going to die soon are dying. I think that was a March topic so I don’t think this study is meaningful at all. What you seem to be asserting is something we won’t know for years when people who recovered are tracked to see if they die earlier than expected of something else.
The author, Dr. Erin Bromage, describes easy spread through breathing as a significant vector, essentially classifying COVID-19 as a straight-up, no-hedging airborne disease like measles. I've excerpted the following from his article:Battersbox said:This is a good read, thank you.-fish- said:Good piece on the relative risks of different activities as we reopen: Link
If no countervailing evidence comes out soon ... this all looks to be a much worse scenario than I had been thinking. For all intents and purposes, this thing seems to spread like "magic" and does seem to spread in a way very different from influenza.If a person coughs or sneezes, those 200,000,000 viral particles go everywhere. Some virus hangs in the air, some falls into surfaces, most falls to the ground. So if you are face-to-face with a person, having a conversation, and that person sneezes or coughs straight at you, it's pretty easy to see how it is possible to inhale 1,000 virus particles and become infected.
But even if that cough or sneeze was not directed at you, some infected droplets--the smallest of small--can hang in the air for a few minutes, filling every corner of a modest sized room with infectious viral particles. All you have to do is enter that room within a few minutes of the cough/sneeze and take a few breaths and you have potentially received enough virus to establish an infection.
...
The principle is viral exposure over an extended period of time. In all these cases, people were exposed to the virus in the air for a prolonged period (hours). Even if they were 50 feet away (choir or call center), even a low dose of the virus in the air reaching them, over a sustained period, was enough to cause infection and in some cases, death.
Social distancing rules are really to protect you with brief exposures or outdoor exposures. In these situations there is not enough time to achieve the infectious viral load when you are standing 6 feet apart or where wind and the infinite outdoor space for viral dilution reduces viral load. The effects of sunlight, heat, and humidity on viral survival, all serve to minimize the risk to everyone when outside.
When assessing the risk of infection (via respiration) at the grocery store or mall, you need to consider the volume of the air space (very large), the number of people (restricted), how long people are spending in the store (workers - all day; customers - an hour). Taken together, for a person shopping: the low density, high air volume of the store, along with the restricted time you spend in the store, means that the opportunity to receive an infectious dose is low. But, for the store worker, the extended time they spend in the store provides a greater opportunity to receive the infectious dose and therefore the job becomes more risky.
Basically, as the work closures are loosened, and we start to venture out more, possibly even resuming in-office activities, you need to look at your environment and make judgments. How many people are here, how much airflow is there around me, and how long will I be in this environment. If you are in an open floorplan office, you really need to critically assess the risk (volume, people, and airflow). If you are in a job that requires face-to-face talking or even worse, yelling, you need to assess the risk.
If you are sitting in a well ventilated space, with few people, the risk is low.
If I am outside, and I walk past someone, remember it is “dose and time” needed for infection. You would have to be in their airstream for 5+ minutes for a chance of infection. While joggers may be releasing more virus due to deep breathing, remember the exposure time is also less due to their speed. Please do maintain physical distance, but the risk of infection in these scenarios are low.
I'm going to guess you don't wear glasses. Wearing a mask causes mine to fog up horribly. Of course I suck it up and wear one because I'm not an entitled #####. But I reserve the right to whine about it.Don Hutson said:I'm really having trouble understanding why people think wearing a mask is so bad. It's not uncomfortable at all. And it seems to be the tough guys that are whining the most. I guess a guy can have tattoos, motorcycles, and a bunch of guns but their delicate snowflake of a face is too sensitive to handle wearing a mask. Actually, it seems to be big, tough guys that whine the most about everything.
I found a cheaper version...To all the road trippers who don't feel comfortable pulling into a public bathroom, this portable urinal might be helpful to avoid those pit stops. It even comes with a ....um.... "extension" to help the ladies with their aim.
https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B07HKL9LKS/ref=ppx_yo_dt_b_search_asin_title?ie=UTF8&psc=1
Problem solvedI'm going to guess you don't wear glasses. Wearing a mask causes mine to fog up horribly. Of course I suck it up and wear one because I'm not an entitled #####. But I reserve the right to whine about it.
Paul pointed out the following:
Paul then stated that his view is that the truth is the exact opposite of the media narrative. There is very good evidence that recovered patients will have some durable immunity. And recovered workers, in industries like meatpacking, should be reassured there is a strong likelihood they will not get reinfected. He then referenced that Dr. Fauci had said publicly that he would bet it all that survivors of COVID-19 have some form of immunity and asked him to set the record straight.
- In experiments, rhesus monkeys infected with COVID-19 can’t be reinfected
- Studies have shown plasma from recovered COVID-19 patients neutralizes the virus in lab experiments
- The entire premise of convalescent plasma treatment, mentioned by several on the panel as a potential treatment currently in trials, is that recovered patients develop immunity capable of killing the virus
- Recovering patients across the board are showing significant antibody response
- We know SARS and MERS, coronaviruses with similar clinical presentations, confer immunity for at least 2-3 years
Dr. Fauci responded that it is indeed likely.
No worries. I could tell that’s what you were thinking because I thought of that as well but two months in you would have to make some huge leaps to calculate life expectancy for survivors. I think they probably started this when only older people were dying but at this point we know it’s happened to seemingly healthy people as well.Got it - thanks. I was thinking of what they've said around kidney damage and lung scarring and the like and how that will impact life expectancy.
He has liver cancer; it's just made its way to his brain.Sorry to hear...cancer sucks and I really hate brain cancer.
What was "the media narrative" regarding reinfection and immunity? The worst some of the media did was report on South Korean researchers prematurely announcing that quick reinfections were happening. Otherwise, "the media" as a collective entity never reported in lockstep that post-infection immunity was off the table.Dr. Rand Paul had the best 5 minutes during the Covid senate hearing
Paul then stated that his view is that the truth is the exact opposite of the media narrative.
Testing and asymptomatic results
Four Huge Implications of this Data
- Diamond Princess cruise ship: A new study from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine shows that 72% of those infected aboard the Diamond Princess were asymptomatic. Previously, the estimated percentage of asymptomatic individuals onboard was 46.5.
- USS Theodore Roosevelt: Of the 1,102 confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 onboard the USS Theodore Roosevelt, 60% were asymptomatic. Only seven were hospitalized, and one person died.
- Charles de Gaulle: 1,046 sailors out of 1,760 on board the French aircraft carrier tested positive for the virus. There were zero deaths, and two remain hospitalized. According to the NYT, about half were asymptomatic.
- Prisons: Prisons seem to have an especially high rate of asymptomatic cases. According to Reuters, a tally of 3,277 inmates in state prison systems in Arkansas, North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia who had tested positive for the virus showed that 96% of those who tested positive were asymptomatic. 1,300 tested positive in one Tennessee prison: 98% were asymptomatic, six were hospitalized and one died. An entire female prison in St. Gabriel, Louisiana, was tested, and 85% were positive, but three-quarters were asymptomatic.
- Pregnant women in labor: A groups of doctors at the New York–Presbyterian Allen Hospital and Columbia University Irving Medical Center tested 215 women delivering babies between March 22 and April 4, 2020. This is a good random sample, because they were not tested based on symptoms. The result: 33 tested positive, and 29 of those were initially asymptomatic. Three of the initial 29 asymptomatic patients eventually developed symptoms of the virus, which would mean that in total, 79% were asymptomatic.
- Meatpacking plants: 412 out of 2,367 workers at Triumph Foods plant in St. Joseph, Missouri, tested positive. All of them were asymptomatic, and there have been zero deaths among those workers so far.
- Homeless population: A Boston homeless shelter tested the 408 residents and found that 36% tested positive, of which 87.8% were asymptomatic.
- Nursing homes: Even in nursing homes, with a sick and elderly population that is more susceptible to fatal cases of COVID-19, many of them are still asymptomatic. A survey published in the New England Journal of Medicine at an anonymous nursing home found that more than half with positive results were asymptomatic. In another nursing home in Washington state, 56% of those who tested positive were asymptomatic. One nursing home in Miami County, Ohio, tested every resident last week, and so far all of those who tested positive are still asymptomatic.
1) Initially, the “experts” used the fear of asymptomatic transmission as a means of pushing for universal lockdown. But that only makes sense if the number of asymptomatic are a minority and we are at the beginning of the transmission phase, in which such lockdown could work. Now we see the opposite is true. The overwhelming majority of those infected are asymptomatic, which grows to an absolute super-majority when you factor in the mildly symptomatic. The fatality rate is therefore very small and very confined to a known population. Thus, it makes no sense to lock down younger and healthier people who overwhelmingly don’t get seriously ill, much less deathly ill, even if they contract the virus.
Moreover, the fact that this has spread so far and wide and most are asymptomatic demonstrates that there is no longer any “spread” to stop and we were months too late in trying to stop it even if we wanted to.
2) Now that this virus has already spread far and wide in prisons for months and most are asymptomatic, there is no justification to release prisoners. In fact, not only would this endanger public safety, it is also a greater health concern because they would be releasing a younger, more asymptomatic population into the general population. Coronavirus jailbreak has become such a joke and the threat of death is so low that inmates in L.A. County were caught trying to infect each other in order to obtain their get-out-of-jail free cards.
3) Contact tracing of the entire country is utterly insane. Most people have been spreading this virus while asymptomatic for months. What is left to trace?
4) By going back to normal with basic precautions for most of the population, we will be able to achieve herd immunity much less painfully than previously thought while shielding the more vulnerable population. The threshold of 70% contracting a virus in order to achieve herd immunity is only true for diseases like measles and mumps, which affect the population more or less evenly. But the target of this virus is very lopsided and heterogeneous. According to a recent simulation by European, American, and Brazilian researchers, “Heterogeneous populations require less infections to cross their herd immunity thresholds than homogeneous models would suggest,” possibly as low as 10%. The fact that so many of the more exposed and vulnerable already got it and so many were asymptomatic means we could achieve herd immunity much quicker with fewer lives lost, certainly compared to lockdown.
Why is this the best 5 minutes? When has the "media narrative" claimed that recovered patients have no immunity?Dr. Rand Paul had the best 5 minutes during the Covid senate hearing
Paul pointed out the following:
Paul then stated that his view is that the truth is the exact opposite of the media narrative. There is very good evidence that recovered patients will have some durable immunity. And recovered workers, in industries like meatpacking, should be reassured there is a strong likelihood they will not get reinfected. He then referenced that Dr. Fauci had said publicly that he would bet it all that survivors of COVID-19 have some form of immunity and asked him to set the record straight.
- In experiments, rhesus monkeys infected with COVID-19 can’t be reinfected
- Studies have shown plasma from recovered COVID-19 patients neutralizes the virus in lab experiments
- The entire premise of convalescent plasma treatment, mentioned by several on the panel as a potential treatment currently in trials, is that recovered patients develop immunity capable of killing the virus
- Recovering patients across the board are showing significant antibody response
- We know SARS and MERS, coronaviruses with similar clinical presentations, confer immunity for at least 2-3 years
Dr. Fauci responded that it is indeed likely.
Texas, Oklahoma, UNC and other large schools have also announced.University of South Carolina announced last week students will be back on campus this fall for in person classes. No mention of sports but skrewel gonna be open.
DOD research lab. We need to start getting more people into the office IMO. Our building has 3 floors and holds about 120 ppl. Currently, our guidance allows only 5 people on each floor at a time, and of course only one person per office. Half of our work is classified and can't be done at home obviously, so deadlines are slipping. Which is OK, if temporary. I've been going in 3-4 days a week to get stuff done, and it is a ghost town. A lot of make-work is going on for those huddled at home, I suspect. I've been telling folks "break the seal, go to the office on occasion", because it is extremely good for the mentality to get out and get a taste of the old routine, even if just a taste. My first day back, I was unsettled. Now it is NBD, including dealing with masks, working face to face properly, etc.Everyone back on my corporate campus next week. Huge company in South Texas. Dumb.
I can't see it. Thankfully we can delay football ticket payments till August 1st...University of South Carolina announced last week students will be back on campus this fall for in person classes. No mention of sports but skrewel gonna be open.
Make sure the top of the mask stays under the bottom of the frame. Try the surgical masks. They have a bendable rod in the top of them that you can configure around the bridge of your nose and then place your glasses over the top of it.I'm going to guess you don't wear glasses. Wearing a mask causes mine to fog up horribly. Of course I suck it up and wear one because I'm not an entitled #####. But I reserve the right to whine about it.
They’re desperate to keep the money rolling in.I understand the preemptive cancelling of in person classes. It gives everyone time to prepare for remote learning and should things turn for the better, it is easy to go back to traditional in person classroom teaching.
I find it to be far more irresponsible to say that in person classes are definitely happening in the fall. Should that not be the case, schools and kids will be I'll prepared to suddenly switch to remote.
This Rand Paul stuff should really be in the political forum.Why is this the best 5 minutes? When has the "media narrative" claimed that recovered patients have no immunity?
It's true that the media has reported on cases of alleged reinfection. Guess what? That's their job. But guess what else? The media has also done a pretty good job on following up on those stories, showing that the alleged reinfections were actually asymptomatic carriers. The irony of Paul's rant is that one of the reasons that we found out about asymptomatic carriers is because the media reported on the reinfection stories in the first place.
Sounds like Paul is attacking a strawman narrative that doesn't really exist.
ThisI'm going to guess you don't wear glasses. Wearing a mask causes mine to fog up horribly. Of course I suck it up and wear one because I'm not an entitled #####. But I reserve the right to whine about it.
Rainx works too.This
A&R Sports Shield Defogger with Shammy https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0043WNPPS/ref=cm_sw_r_sms_apa_i_XLdVEb9TQ30KV
Or lemon pledge....no schtick
Boggling to me as to why reports of this never came out of other countries**. Maybe even go back in China, Italy, South Korea, Japan, Spain, France, etc. and look to see if similar symptoms in children there spiked up at any point in the recent past.Cuomo talked about the kids syndrome again today. Said 3 deaths, 100 cases. DeBlasio said they would advertise for it everywhere in the city. This better be extremely rare or highly treatable.
Italy and the UK reported a few cases 2 weeks agoBoggling to me as to why reports of this never came out of other countries**. Maybe even go back in China, Italy, South Korea, Japan, Spain, France, etc. and look to see if similar symptoms in children there spiked up at any point in the recent past.Cuomo talked about the kids syndrome again today. Said 3 deaths, 100 cases. DeBlasio said they would advertise for it everywhere in the city. This better be extremely rare or highly treatable.
Heck, is it being found in the U.S. outside of the immediate NYC area? Very strange.
** Or have they?
The U.K reported several cases. No time to link. There's going to be some kind of conference of health experts about it. I believe the NY Department of Health is running the investigation now in NY.Boggling to me as to why reports of this never came out of other countries**. Maybe even go back in China, Italy, South Korea, Japan, Spain, France, etc. and look to see if similar symptoms in children there spiked up at any point in the recent past.
Heck, is it being found in the U.S. outside of the immediate NYC area? Very strange.
** Or have they?
the author lost me when he put quotation marks around experts. Sorry, I will not take any article seriously that does this. The whole theme of disrespect of expertise is one of the worst things about modern America, IMO.
He's wrong that it doesn't affect kids. He's trying to make a statistical argument. Kids get sick and go to the hospital from this. And now there's this other side effect they are seeing in NY and UK and a couple of other cases. That better wind up being extremely rare or highly treatable because it kills kids.Dr. Rand Paul had the best 5 minutes during the Covid senate hearing
If I were a student I wouldn’t be paying tutition to a top notch school to watch a screen in my parents basement. I would also consider transferring to a school that was going to be openI understand the preemptive cancelling of in person classes. It gives everyone time to prepare for remote learning and should things turn for the better, it is easy to go back to traditional in person classroom teaching.
I find it to be far more irresponsible to say that in person classes are definitely happening in the fall. Should that not be the case, schools and kids will be I'll prepared to suddenly switch to remote.
Unfortunately, this is basically right. Schools expect an enrollment drop this fall regardless, but they fear a really cataclysmic hit if they go online. Students made it extremely clear that they don't want online classes.They’re desperate to keep the money rolling in.
wish I could. I don't know if that's true about the 26 folks being sent home. Water cooler talk, but these rumors are usually true.Call out tomorrow bromy factory has remained open. We have been checking everyones temps every day for the past few weeks. Apparently 26 people were sent home today.
Good stuff here. Everyone should mask up, and wash hands every 30 minutes or so, and socially distance 6 to 8 feet at least, and don't touch common surface when possible, and don't breathe on people or get breathed on, etc.wish I could. I don't know if that's true about the 26 folks being sent home. Water cooler talk, but these rumors are usually true.
We have been WFH if possible. Over the past couple of weeks I have been in a prototype/test cycle so I have had to come in. All of the folks on the manufacturing floor wear masks and are distancing, which is great, but no one on the office side does (mostly becasefery few folks have been coming in). I had not been wearing my mask unless I needed to go out onto the floor. But, I do wash the heck out of my hands and I try to keep distance as much as possible from anyone and everyone.
Today I have been wearing a mask any time I leave my office. Been getting some odd looks - mostly becase I haven't been masking up until today. I think this will be my new normal. I wish everyone else was masking up as well.
One would think people in May 2020 would be miles past "odd looks" for mask-wearing. What do you think is going on in your coworkers minds?Today I have been wearing a mask any time I leave my office. Been getting some odd looks - mostly because I haven't been masking up until today. I think this will be my new normal. I wish everyone else was masking up as well.
Sorry, but plenty of the covid "experts" deserve all the criticism they get and then some. You cant be super cocky and arrogant about an answer and then play the "we learned more" card when it turns out to be wrong.the author lost me when he put quotation marks around experts. Sorry, I will not take any article seriously that does this. The whole theme of disrespect of expertise is one of the worst things about modern America, IMO.
Huge on the bolded.Good stuff here. Everyone should mask up, and wash hands every 30 minutes or so, and socially distance 6 to 8 feet at least, and don't touch common surface when possible, and don't breathe on people or get breathed on, etc.
It would be good if they advised on how often to wash hands. Just saying "frequently" or "often" means different things to different people.
Seattle also reported its first confirmed case yesterday.Italy and the UK reported a few cases 2 weeks agoBoggling to me as to why reports of this never came out of other countries**. Maybe even go back in China, Italy, South Korea, Japan, Spain, France, etc. and look to see if similar symptoms in children there spiked up at any point in the recent past.Cuomo talked about the kids syndrome again today. Said 3 deaths, 100 cases. DeBlasio said they would advertise for it everywhere in the city. This better be extremely rare or highly treatable.
Heck, is it being found in the U.S. outside of the immediate NYC area? Very strange.
** Or have they?