TL;DR. No, I don't think case numbers mean what they used to mean. They shouldn't be ignored either. Also, I don't think hospitalizations and ICU bed stats are the same as they used to be either.
It actually said 6-8 weeks. Someone elsewhere pointed out to me that's a CDC lag time, but none of us are really tracking it that way. We are looking at state case reports, and trying to judge lag, which really is closer to 14 days than 42. About lag: some tests come back in a day or less, and some can take 7-10 days, or more... still. Why do we only talk about the lag starting when case numbers are reported? I know at least 10 people now who have taken two tests to go back to work. One rapid; one that comes back multiple days later.
My question: are they getting counted twice? I know it can easily be argued 10 cases is anecdotal, and there may not be any statistical implication to the numbers, but it's still a concern with trying to judge real time data and predict anything when you wonder how many times a person is counted AND how long it took a reported test to come back.
I haven't been happy with the hospitalization numbers the past few days for Florida, but I've also been trying to talk to people on the ground. Heard about Jackson in Miami a couple of days before that broke in the news, but even though they were pretty full, I was told it was like 20% Covid in the ICU. The guy I mentioned in Orlando said they opened up their overflow ICU because they were getting full, but to date, they aren't using it. I think he said 15% of the ICU was Covid.
Just like we aren't able to compare NY with today's ability to test, we also cannot compare NY ICU capacity with what is happening now. Maybe
@Terminalxylem can fill me in, but as I understand it, hospitalizations and ICUs in NYC were mostly Covid patients during their worst time. I've hinted to a question previously about whether or not it matters, but it's at least not entirely fair to compare those situations at face value. Is a regular ICU patient as difficult to deal with as a Covid ICU patient? Let's say my guy in Orlando gets a full ICU, and they end up with a Covid ICU ward and a regular ICU ward. At what stage would there be a reason to panic? IIRC, their regular ICU capacity was around 32, and I do remember their overflow would put them at 68. And doing the math, 15% of 32 means 5-6 total Covid patients in his hospital (system?) right now.
I admit numbers aren't where I want them to be. Deaths are relatively flat, but I want them to fall. None of this is happening where I am in Florida, but I'd still rather get this over with soon, state wide.