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*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (15 Viewers)

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bcat01 said:
The first one has happened.  Locally we had someone sign up and not get tested.  They received a letter from the health department that they tested positive.  The health department says the letter was a form letter and that he received it because his doctor had diagnosed a "probable" case.  His test was not counted in the daily totals.
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This I could almost believe but is a little different than offdee's version.  I think the key point being the results.

It's crazy that we are still depending on tests that aren't very reliable.  Is this a function of supply chain?

 
From my understanding, the PCR test, which is the gold standard for testing, is pretty close to 100% accurate if the sample is taken properly and the test performed adequately. I imagine most false positives or false negatives come from human error. The antigen tests are also pretty accurate for their sensitivity. A false negative on those tests would only be if you had just recently contracted the virus, or if it has mostly run its course.

 
offdee said:
2 recent stories from 2 different acquaintances who don't know each other.  WTF?

- woman went to one of those drive up testing stations.  She input all her info in the kiosk in line, then proceeded to wait for about an hour and wasn't that much closer. She got out of line and left without ever taking the test. She gets results back telling her she is Positive for Covid.  SHE NEVER TOOK THE TEST!

- woman is a nurse, so she took home 12 at home tests and did them all on the same night and submitted them the next day.   Results came back for all 12.....5 Positive for Covid.  7 Negative for Covid.    Ummm ok.
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Family of 5 we know went to a testing place.  Never took it.  They got notified later as all positive.  It's probably going both ways but just wtf???

 
Because there is so much data to wade through, hopefully this is helpful.

Once a state/county has come down the backside of the curve and starts to flatten out on cases and hospitalizations, 2 measures become most important:

  1. % testing positive (assuming enough testing is being done)
  2. Hospitalizations/ICU
I check these numbers daily using NY State's dashboard and cross-referencing it with syracuse.com, an news organization that publishes a nice one page view.

NY % Testing Positive: 1.0%. 703 positive/72,370 tests

Hospitalizations: 570. ICU: 132.

This is in a state with just over 210 hospitals and 19 million residents.

Syracuse.com view.

Opinion: If all 50 states were in this situation, we would be in a pretty good spot. Oh, and I avoid anecdotes. Just saying there's a lot of data so I prefer to rely on that over stories.

 
shadyridr said:
My wife was tested today. Her asthma has been bothering her since yesterday and her sinuses have been hurting. She went to urgent care. The doc said "could be asthma, could be covid". She had her O2 measured (perfect), an XRay done (perfect) and got the test. Results in 5 days lol. She asked the doc "Isnt that ridiculous?" He said yes. He just said to avoid vulnerable people until she gets the results. He gave her a prescription for prednisone.
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Negative for covid! Results took 4 days so not terrible. She still has a cough and sinus pressure. Think she got it from my son who had post nasal drop cough for weeks.

 
Apparently this from a professor of Pharmacy in Toronto.  I received this by email so can't vouch for anything, but thought it might be useful.  Opinions on this could be helpful.

For this pandemic there’s a greater chance of survival for those getting infected 3 months later, like June 2020, than those who got infected 3 months earlier, say February 2020. The reason for this is that Doctors and scientists know more about COVID-19 now than 3 months ago, and hence are able to treat patients better. I will list *5 important things* that we know now that we didn’t know in February 2020 for your understanding. 

1. COVID-19 was initially thought to cause deaths due to *pneumonia- a lung infection*- and so Ventilators were thought to be the best way to treat sick patients who couldn’t breathe. *Now we are realizing that the virus causes blood clots in the blood vessels of the lungs* and other parts of the body; and this causes the reduced oxygenation. Now we know that just providing oxygen by ventilators will not help, but we have to prevent and dissolve the micro clots in the lungs. This is why 
we are using drugs like *Aspirin and Heparin (blood thinners that prevent clotting) as protocol in treatment regimens in June 2020.* 

2. Previously patients used to drop dead on the road, or even before reaching a hospital, due to reduced oxygen in their blood - OXYGEN SATURATION. This was because of *HAPPY HYPOXIA*- where even though the oxygen saturation was gradually reducing the COVID-19, patients did not have symptoms until it became critically less, like sometimes even 70%. **Normally we become breathless if oxygen saturation reduces below 90%. **This breathlessness is not triggered in Covid patients, and so we were getting the sick patients very late to the hospitals, in February 2020. Now, since knowing about happy hypoxia, we are monitoring oxygen saturation of all covid patients *with a simple home use pulse oximeter and getting them to hospital if their oxygen saturation drops to 93% or less*. This gives more time for doctors to correct the 
oxygen deficiency in the blood and a better survival chance in June 
2020. 

3. We did not have drugs to fight the corona virus in February 2020. We were only treating the complications caused by it... hypoxia. Hence most patients became severely infected. ```**Now we have 2 important medicines:  

FAVIPIRAVIR & REMDESIVIR**``` 

These are ANTIVIRALS that can kill the corona virus. By using these two medicines we can prevent patients from becoming severely infected and therefore cure them BEFORE THEY GO TO HYPOXIA. This knowledge we have in JUNE 2020... not in February 2020. 

4. Many Covid-19 patients die not just because of the virus, but also due the patient’s own immune system responding In an exaggerated manner called *CYTOKINE STORM*. This stormy strong immune response not only kills the virus but also kills the patients. In February 2020, we didn’t know how to prevent it from happening. Now in June 2020, we know that *easily available medicines called Steroids,* that doctors around the world have been using for almost 80 years, *can be used to 
prevent the cytokine storm in some patients*. 

5. Now we also know that people with hypoxia became better just by making them lie down on their belly - known as prone position. Apart from this, a few days ago, Israeli scientists have discovered that a chemical known as Alpha Defensin, produced by the patients White blood cells, can cause the micro clots in blood vessels of the lungs; and this could possibly be prevented by a drug called Colchicine, used over many 
decades in the treatment of Gout. 

So now we know for sure that patients have a better chance at 
surviving the COVID-19 infection, in June 2020, than in February 2020, for sure. 

Going forward, there’s nothing to panic about Covid-19 - if we remember that a person who gets infected later, has a better chance at survival, than one who got infected early. 

Let’s continue to follow precautions, wear masks and practice social distancing.  Please distribute this message, as we all need some positive news...

 
shadrap said:
Apparently this from a professor of Pharmacy in Toronto.  I received this by email so can't vouch for anything, but thought it might be useful.  Opinions on this could be helpful.
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A Google search shows that this article has been making the rounds since early July, when it was vaguely credited to "a senior British doctor".

Without an actual named source, I'm calling Fake News.

edit: earliest incarnation I found was from this Pakistani blog (posted by a self-described "home maker, influencer, and blogger") on June 28th.

 
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nirad3 said:
Wonder if one of our nurses or medical professionals could go point-by-point and offer their thoughts?  I mean, the statements are either true or not.
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Just by taking a quick look at it, I think most of the information is good but they overstretch the overall benefits. Talking about ‘killing’ and ‘curing’ COVID is extreme. I’m not exactly sure on the mode of action for those drugs but I think they are making it sound better than it is. They certainly can be beneficial in some cases.

Same with the cytokine storm/steroids. Steroids have become an important part of treatment but not in everyone.

In general there have been great advancements in the treatments. Combined with a lower age of patients, restricting the spread in nursing homes and better mitigation techniques that’s a big reason why the current spike isn’t much worse in terms of deaths. There have been great strides made but not time to celebrate because the strides came from knowing next to nothing about it.

 
shadrap said:
Apparently this from a professor of Pharmacy in Toronto.  I received this by email so can't vouch for anything, but thought it might be useful.  Opinions on this could be helpful.

<snip>
Let’s continue to follow precautions, wear masks and practice social distancing.  Please distribute this message, as we all need some positive news...
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I'm hopeful on this and I think it should be obvious that we should be better at treating this but are we really that much better?  I would think if we were that much better then we wouldn't be seeing the death numbers that we have the last couple of weeks.  I haven't been paying attention to the death rate so maybe it's going down consistently - that would definitely be good news.

 
Biff84 said:
Just by taking a quick look at it, I think most of the information is good but they overstretch the overall benefits. Talking about ‘killing’ and ‘curing’ COVID is extreme. I’m not exactly sure on the mode of action for those drugs but I think they are making it sound better than it is. They certainly can be beneficial in some cases.

Same with the cytokine storm/steroids. Steroids have become an important part of treatment but not in everyone.

In general there have been great advancements in the treatments. Combined with a lower age of patients, restricting the spread in nursing homes and better mitigation techniques that’s a big reason why the current spike isn’t much worse in terms of deaths. There have been great strides made but not time to celebrate because the strides came from knowing next to nothing about it.
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Thank you!  Informative & helpful.

 
Looks like our CFR is around 3% so that's come down a decent amount since I checked it last.  That is good.

If cases are double reported then we are at 1.5% - triple then we are at 1.0%  I don't know what the latest thought is on what the real case number is.  But it does seem like things are heading in a positive direction on that front.  If we could just get the cases down we would be looking good.

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
Gov Wolf (Pa) recommends all fall sports canceled until January

eta: all youth sports
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This whole situation was so mismanaged.  We've had kids playing sports for a couple of months.  Why now, after exposing kids to unnecessary health and injury risk, directing school districts and associations to create return to play plans, and all the money spent organizing sports, would you cancel the seasons?  It makes absolutely no sense and is embarrassing.  

 
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Cowboysfan8 said:
No, I should have edited differently.

The rec is all youth sports be postponed until Jan 1
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Right.  My point is we have 3 more weeks of our season.   Is he canceling from this point forward?

We just played for a month (still in our "summer" season)

 
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Georgia burbs still not fond of masks - went to bagel shop this morning for the first time in a long time (no drive-thru).  11 people, only me and one other person had them on.  I really don't know what to attribute this to other than they just aren't concerned if they get it and I'll try to give them the benefit of the doubt that they would stay home if sick - but I'm not completely convinced of that either.  And to be clear, I don't mean if they are positive.

 
belljr said:
Right.  My point is we have 3 more weeks of our season.   Is he canceling from this point forward?

We just played for a month (still in our "summer" season)
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Considering yourself lucky for getting a season to begin with.  Everything in my area was cancelled.

 
The Commish said:
:confused:  

Not sure what this means, but didn't Florida pass NY about a month ago.
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If you go by cases, then yeah. But why would you? When the history books are written I think it's fairly obvious that the death total will be what people scrutinize. New York has a "Secretariat in the Belmont" type lead in that department.

What's it like to hate your own state so much that you search for a criteria to portray it as the worst in the nation? Florida can't even claim the most cases, btw. That's California's honor. Louisiana and Arizona have Florida beat in cases per capita as well.

 
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Golf league last night. Loudmouth guy starts introducing himself and reaching out for a handshake. I offered my fist instead and he grabs a hold of it while loudly exclaiming "IM A HANDSHAKE GUY!!! I DONT CARE WHAT THEY SAY!!! IM NOT AFRAID!!!!" 

Should've gone all Karen on him, but I just chalked it up to ignorance and inconsideration instead.  :rolleyes:

 
E-Z Glider said:
Golf league last night. Loudmouth guy starts introducing himself and reaching out for a handshake. I offered my fist instead and he grabs a hold of it while loudly exclaiming "IM A HANDSHAKE GUY!!! I DONT CARE WHAT THEY SAY!!! IM NOT AFRAID!!!!" 

Should've gone all Karen on him, but I just chalked it up to ignorance and inconsideration instead.  :rolleyes:
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Douse him in hand sanitizer

 
Mr Anonymous said:
If you go by cases, then yeah. But why would you? When the history books are written I think it's fairly obvious that the death total will be what people scrutinize. New York has a "Secretariat in the Belmont" type lead in that department.

What's it like to hate your own state so much that you search for a criteria to portray it as the worst in the nation? Florida can't even claim the most cases, btw. That's California's honor. Louisiana and Arizona have Florida beat in cases per capita as well.
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Fish someone else, I'm not interested in your nonsense.  That you came up with this line of :bs:  is telling.  It belongs in the PSF, not here.  I was asking a question after stating CLEARLY I wasn't sure what he was talking about...good lord :lmao:  

 
E-Z Glider said:
Golf league last night. Loudmouth guy starts introducing himself and reaching out for a handshake. I offered my fist instead and he grabs a hold of it while loudly exclaiming "IM A HANDSHAKE GUY!!! I DONT CARE WHAT THEY SAY!!! IM NOT AFRAID!!!!" 

Should've gone all Karen on him, but I just chalked it up to ignorance and inconsideration instead.  :rolleyes:
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Driver to the boys- "Twooo!"

 
Cowboysfan8 said:
My understanding is that he isn’t canceling anything. It’s his “recommendation “
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Wolf should make a real decision then.   Don’t make a recommendation when you’re the guy in charge.  PA is poorly run.  Another poster asked for examples when I made that statement before.  You don’t have to look back.   Just stay current and get ready for the next poor decisions.   

 
Mr Anonymous said:
If you go by cases, then yeah. But why would you? When the history books are written I think it's fairly obvious that the death total will be what people scrutinize. New York has a "Secretariat in the Belmont" type lead in that department.

What's it like to hate your own state so much that you search for a criteria to portray it as the worst in the nation? Florida can't even claim the most cases, btw. That's California's honor. Louisiana and Arizona have Florida beat in cases per capita as well.
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I haven't been that involved in this thread since April because there are a half dozen folks being tools. Please be cool with this childish stuff here. I don't report posts but a few of you are begging for it. 

For those of us who have been here since the beginning, a few things are pretty commonly accepted: 

1) CFR goes up dramatically once hospital resources are exceeded and they have to start turning cases away. This happened in NYC. Thankfully mitigation efforts flattened the curve before it happened in Florida. That's a good thing. Not sure why you want to thump your chest over that? Glll peas with that. 

2) CFR has also gone down thanks to improved treatment. Proning, meds, decreasing vent usage, etc. have all contributed to this. Our docs and nurses are working their asses off (with many of them getting sick or dying as a result). The price they're paying sucks, but the treatment improvements are also a good thing. 

3) CFR MAY has gone down due to a less-lethal strain out of Europe (G614) vs China's strain (G614). This has reportedly increased transmission while decreasing CFR, both of which decrease overall CFR numbers. That ALSO is a good thing. 

Anyone beating their chest over any of this.... please stop. Last I checked we still have a couple 9/11's a week happening. 

Please, stop being a #####, @Mr Anonymous and co. 

 
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PIAA has postponed the start of high school football and other fall sports by 2 weeks

What they think is going to happen in those 2 weeks I have no idea

 
DocHolliday said:
Wolf should make a real decision then.   Don’t make a recommendation when you’re the guy in charge.  PA is poorly run.  Another poster asked for examples when I made that statement before.  You don’t have to look back.   Just stay current and get ready for the next poor decisions.   
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🤷‍♂️

why are you scolding me?   :lol:

 
[icon] said:
Anyone beating their chest over any of this.... please stop. Last I checked we still have a couple 9/11's a week happening. 
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I don't want to spike the football on this thing until after:

1) We've crossed the goal line
2) We've waited for the replays
3) We've kicked the extra point
4) 0:00 on the clock with us in the lead
5) Hit the locker-room, changed back into street clothes, addressed the media, drove home
6) Caught the highlights of us scoring on SportsCenter
7) Waited a few years
8) Caught footage of us scoring on some NFL Network retrospective show

...

Then -- maybe then -- it'll be time to spike the football on COVID-19. But we're not even close yet.

 
culdeus said:
Still don't get why I should care.  They get sent home?
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Students testing positive were free to quarantine at home, per the article. The university also has services and accommodations on campus so that the students aren’t forced to leave.

 
Doug B said:
Students testing positive were free to quarantine at home, per the article. The university also has services and accommodations on campus so that the students aren’t forced to leave.
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ok, so why should I care that two random college students tested positive, will get better while being isolated from others?

 
culdeus said:
So?  I mean we are way past the point of caring about two? Cases. 
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2.2% of 18-21 years olds moving onto campus seems like a big deal to me.  This isn't nursing homes.  Guessing they didn't have symptoms and were quite surprised.  I think if 35 kids at my daughters high school test positive the first week it will be a big deal.

 
Omaha public schools cancelled all fall sports, moved the start of school back a week and will be 100% online.

 
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