*** OFFICIAL *** COVID-19 CoronaVirus Thread. Fresh epidemic fears as child pneumonia cases surge in Europe after China outbreak. NOW in USA (11 Viewers)

[AAABatteries]

It's tough that's for sure.  I'd love to see another round of a PPP for businesses but it need to be directed at those business that have suffered losses.  The first round was a free for all mess but let's target businesses in industries that have been hit hard would be a good start. 

Ultimately, even doing these things isn't going to matter until a larger segment of the population is on the same page.  My son plays basketball and other than a couple months back in the spring they've pretty much played the whole time.  And while playing sports can work, kind of like we are seeing in pro and college (on some level) - the thing that is frustrating to me is we don't have consistent protocols at these events.  I always wear a mask and try to keep my distance from people but some games limit patrons and require masks - several don't seem to be bothering with anything.  Sure, I could pull my family and kids completely out of all activities and I'm sure there's some that feel like people should.  We are trying to make the best of the situation.  Don't let the grandparents come to games.  Other siblings stay home.  We wear masks.  But ultimately we will have to get back in to another SAH or SIP situation for things to calm down before the vaccine gets here.

 

[AAABatteries]

Not for most of the time.  I figured being in a completely different room with the door closed and masked is pretty safe.  Would rather not take the day off work.  

If it were me and that concerned about it, I would just send me wife somewhere and then sit on my back deck while the guy worked.

 

[E-Z Glider]

It's tough that's for sure.  I'd love to see another round of a PPP for businesses but it need to be directed at those business that have suffered losses.  The first round was a free for all mess but let's target businesses in industries that have been hit hard would be a good start. 

The PPP was great for businesses that were mildly affected by the slowdown and otherwise would've laid people off to compensate for their losses. Unfortunately the hardest hit industries (food service, retail, entertainment, etc) need more than just their payroll covered. There are a lot of other expenses not included in PPP.

 

[jvdesigns2002]

I have a contractor coming tomorrow to install indoor shutters on our windows.  I plan to have all windows open and all bathroom fans on sucking the air out for ventilation.  HVAC will be off otherwise.  Everyone will be masked. My wife and I will be on a different level of the home the whole time in a closed room working.   Is there anything else I can do?  This is the highest risk thing we've done since March.  

Air purifier running if you have one, if you do have a digital thermometer to quickly scan him; and to do a thorough masked and gloved sterilization of the home after he leaves. 

 

[jamny]

If you get a vaccine, will you still be able to catch the virus and spread it before your body knocks it out?

 

[parasaurolophus]

fart fans won't move much air.  do you have the option to turn your hvac fan on without the system being on?  this will pull orders of magnitude more air thru the filter.   I mean if you were really paranoid you could in theory divert the supply registers away from you while leaving your HVAC on thereby keeping you more or less in negative pressure depending on how you manage windows.  

That being said the general guidelines say 2hrs after a worker leaves an indoor area you are ok even if you do nothing but glare sternly at the area where they were.  

Thanks.

I got conflicting info when googling about HVAC and whether having it on spreads the virus or filters it out.  .  I also have 2 Dyson fans I'll have running.  

I think you actually had the right idea but I suppose it depends on your filters for HVAC. 

 

[culdeus]

Thanks.

I got conflicting info when googling about HVAC and whether having it on spreads the virus or filters it out.  .  I also have 2 Dyson fans I'll have running.  

I would look to get these objectives met as much as is practical:

1) Run your HVAC while present and 2hrs after.  

2) Try to be outdoors/isolated from your hvac system as much as possible in that window, if you can shut down the supply register and open a window somewhere that is also ok.

3) Be firm on the worker masking even when you aren't around.

 

[Rodrigo Duterte]

This

Is where i got them. 3 transactions with no issues. My sisters have bought a couple times too. Ebay reviews almost all solid too so i dont think my experience is just anecdotal

Same mask I got and love them so far.  But I got them from Amazon and there looks to be a slight difference on the green labeling on the mask itself, although the manufacturer is the same (Powecom) and the packaging looks identical.  The seller I bought from shows they are now out of stock, darn it.

Innovative (seller)

I did a fair amount of research in trying to find the right mask but don't know for sure if these are 100% "authentic" or if they have the proper safety approvals and whatnot.

 

[E-Z Glider]

If you get a vaccine, will you still be able to catch the virus and spread it before your body knocks it out?

I have no idea, but would be interested to hear from others.

I saw this on FB the other day....

"Vaccines do not keep a vaccinated person from contracting or spreading a virus, they only offer the possibility a vaccinated person will not develop symptoms."

Full disclosure: The guy who posted this on FB also believes the world is flat and the mass shootings were faked by the government.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Same mask I got and love them so far.  But I got them from Amazon and there looks to be a slight difference on the green labeling on the mask itself, although the manufacturer is the same (Powecom) and the packaging looks identical.  The seller I bought from shows they are now out of stock, darn it.

Innovative (seller)

I did a fair amount of research in trying to find the right mask but don't know for sure if these are 100% "authentic" or if they have the proper safety approvals and whatnot.

If you go to the fda site there is a link to the manufacturer. There you can look up the scratch off code that comes with the packaging.  

ETA: it is a 16 digit code underneath what looks like the funkiest QR code ever. I have tried some random numbers and they dont work so it seems like it isn't easy to just make fake numbers.

 

[culdeus]

If you get a vaccine, will you still be able to catch the virus and spread it before your body knocks it out?

The flu can spread like this.  

 

[Rodrigo Duterte]

If you go to the fda site there is a link to the manufacturer. There you can look up the scratch off code that comes with the packaging.  

ETA: it is a 16 digit code underneath what looks like the funkiest QR code ever. I have tried some random numbers and they dont work so it seems like it isn't easy to just make fake numbers.

Thanks.  Just ordered more, but from your link/seller.  Tried to buy 3 packs of 10 but the order summary was confusing.  Check it out: 

1 x Powecom KN95 Respirator Mask - FDA Authorized - 10 masks per pack

Select Quantity Pricing Below 30 masks ($1.10 per mask)

It says one, even though I ordered 30, which it also shows, along with discounts applied.  One discount for the "LOVE" code and another for ordering 30 (price per mask drops).  Total was like 26 bucks w/ free shipping.  I get the feeling they will only be sending 10, which is obviously F'd up.  That summary is far from clear, for sure.  I went back and forth to try and figure things out, to no avail.  I can't call them right now, maybe later.

How did your oder work and more importantly, the shipment.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Thanks.  Just ordered more, but from your link/seller.  Tried to buy 3 packs of 10 but the order summary was confusing.  Check it out: 

1 x Powecom KN95 Respirator Mask - FDA Authorized - 10 masks per pack

Select Quantity Pricing Below 30 masks ($1.10 per mask)

It says one, even though I ordered 30, which it also shows, along with discounts applied.  One discount for the "LOVE" code and another for ordering 30 (price per mask drops).  Total was like 26 bucks w/ free shipping.  I get the feeling they will only be sending 10, which is obviously F'd up.  That summary is far from clear, for sure.  I went back and forth to try and figure things out, to no avail.  I can't call them right now, maybe later.

How did your oder work and more importantly, the shipment.

I think you must be looking at the other link? I posted a link to ebay and if I go to it I dont see any of that and the coupon code "LOVE" doesnt work. 

 

[Dr_Zaius]

In looking at all the various States and countries around the world, it's interesting that nearly all have similar peaks in cases. Rarely are there plateaus that last for a period of time, almost always defined peaks. Obviously, added precautions can have a big effect but is that just a feature of virus' in general, that they explode and drop only to come back again for another round? You would think there would be some locations that plateau for a period of weeks or so but I don't see it.

Whoever can convincingly explain this and the general pattern of spread will gain a lot of my trust on the issue, because I haven't seen anyone offer up anything convincing.  In general it seems you have on one side the "virus gonna virus" people claiming nothing we do matters, and on the other side people who make definitive post hoc explanations of whatever just happened, but are unable to make any correct predictions beforehand.

 

[Terminalxylem]

If you get a vaccine, will you still be able to catch the virus and spread it before your body knocks it out?

Unclear, but possible. As @culdeus said, this happens with flu.

 

[IvanKaramazov]

Whoever can convincingly explain this and the general pattern of spread will gain a lot of my trust on the issue, because I haven't seen anyone offer up anything convincing.  In general it seems you have on one side the "virus gonna virus" people claiming nothing we do matters, and on the other side people who make definitive post hoc explanations of whatever just happened, but are unable to make any correct predictions beforehand.

I've noticed the same thing FWIW. 

 

[parasaurolophus]

Whoever can convincingly explain this and the general pattern of spread will gain a lot of my trust on the issue, because I haven't seen anyone offer up anything convincing.  In general it seems you have on one side the "virus gonna virus" people claiming nothing we do matters, and on the other side people who make definitive post hoc explanations of whatever just happened, but are unable to make any correct predictions beforehand.

For sure. I have tried to figure out WI so many times. I cant think of a reason for what is happening right now. Pretty solid downtrend since mid november. And the hospitalizations match the downtrend almost identical. No lag. In fact the hospitalization peak is one day earlier. ICU peak is two days before. Could be a lag in test results, but everybody I speak to that gets tested has no problems. 

It makes zero sense. Thanksgiving should be showing a big spike. 

This reminds me of earlier this year when the WI supreme court lifted the safer at home restrictions completely and it made no difference. 

 

[soothsayer]

There has been talk of specific N95 masks recently and I want to add another mask option to the mix. I saw Eric Feigl-Ding recommend KF94 masks from South Korea on twitter so I checked them out. The brand he pointed to is called Pure Blue and I purchased on Amazon - it's a very comfortable mask and he says it is similar in quality/safety to a KN95. The 10-packs I have been buying are 10 for $17.50.  What is nice about the way they fit is they do not contact the mouth/lips at all, which is nice for talking and avoiding chafing around the lips (at least that is true of this particular brand).

 

[Dr_Zaius]

For sure. I have tried to figure out WI so many times. I cant think of a reason for what is happening right now. Pretty solid downtrend since mid november. And the hospitalizations match the downtrend almost identical. No lag. In fact the hospitalization peak is one day earlier. ICU peak is two days before. Could be a lag in test results, but everybody I speak to that gets tested has no problems. 

It makes zero sense. Thanksgiving should be showing a big spike. 

This reminds me of earlier this year when the WI supreme court lifted the safer at home restrictions completely and it made no difference. 

It seems to me spread in neighboring states and countries has been closely tied, even when formal restrictions are notably different.  Not sure if that's demographics, weather, people crossing borders, what have you.  

 

[Biff84]

In case anyone is looking for some higher quality masks... this is a pretty good deal on a reputable KN95 mask... 10 for $10. https://slickdeals.net/f/14664017-10-pack-powecom-kn95-fda-authorized-respirator-ear-loop-mask-10-free-s-h?src=SiteSearchV2Algo1

I’m kicking myself for not stocking up more when my Safeway had them in stock. They were selling them $7.50 for 10 and they were the some ones they give us in the pharmacy. They restocked them a couple times and seemed to have a lot, so I assumed they would be a regular item. But they haven’t had anything close to that quality since.

 

[DallasDMac]

Positivity rate in SA went from 9% to 15.7% the past week. Bars that do not serve food have until Thursday to start serving food or will be shut down again. Not sure what other restrictions may be coming, but that is the quickest and easiest one for the city to implement since they only allowed them to open with an "opt-in" clause from the Governor's mandate. Hospitalizations way up to in spite of a bunch of El Paso admissions going back home. Not a good couple of days here. Officially cancelled any Christmas get together with our adult children and their families.

 

[top dog]

I’m kicking myself for not stocking up more when my Safeway had them in stock. They were selling them $7.50 for 10 and they were the some ones they give us in the pharmacy. They restocked them a couple times and seemed to have a lot, so I assumed they would be a regular item. But they haven’t had anything close to that quality since.

I got a tracking number for my order over the weekend today. Shows in transit from White Plains NY. I'll let you guys know if they are legit when they show up.

 

[Dezbelief]

In looking at all the various States and countries around the world, it's interesting that nearly all have similar peaks in cases. Rarely are there plateaus that last for a period of time, almost always defined peaks. Obviously, added precautions can have a big effect but is that just a feature of virus' in general, that they explode and drop only to come back again for another round? You would think there would be some locations that plateau for a period of weeks or so but I don't see it.

Whoever can convincingly explain this and the general pattern of spread will gain a lot of my trust on the issue, because I haven't seen anyone offer up anything convincing.  In general it seems you have on one side the "virus gonna virus" people claiming nothing we do matters, and on the other side people who make definitive post hoc explanations of whatever just happened, but are unable to make any correct predictions beforehand.

I'm thinking perhaps something tied to testing, as the virus spreads through vulnerable segments of society those people are more likely to get tested than the less vulnerable segments. 

 

[Shula-holic]

It's tough that's for sure.  I'd love to see another round of a PPP for businesses but it need to be directed at those business that have suffered losses.  The first round was a free for all mess but let's target businesses in industries that have been hit hard would be a good start. 

Amen to that.  Our impact was far beyond payroll, it's pretty much a complete shutdown.  Not sure if even fall of 2021 is realistic for those in my industry at this point.

 

[parasaurolophus]

I'm thinking perhaps something tied to testing, as the virus spreads through vulnerable segments of society those people are more likely to get tested than the less vulnerable segments. 

Not sure I understand how this matches up to the well defined peak. Would seem this would make results a big roller coaster. But would like to hear more of your thoughts. 

 

[Dezbelief]

Not sure I understand how this matches up to the well defined peak. Would seem this would make results a big roller coaster. But would like to hear more of your thoughts. 

Perhaps the virus is plugging along infecting low risk individuals who mostly have mild or asymptomatic cases and aren't getting tested. It takes a while for the high risk to start getting infected because of increased precautionary measures. Once those measures are breached and deaths start to climb then the low risk individuals are more likely to get tested? The numbers climb to more accurately represent the true number of cases. The community then takes the virus more serious and does a better job following guidelines? I believe the climbs are more gentle than our data shows perhaps plateauing for a while dependent on when the vulnerable start to pass away in large numbers. The drop offs are more accurately represented showing the effectiveness of using common sense to combat an epidemic.

Alternate thought

Are the peaks higher concentrations of super spreaders? Figuring out how to keep those people virus free will go a long way(vaccine). A stealthy virus and asymptomatic super spreaders send a chill up and down my spine. The peaks are nothing more than proof of the contagiousness of this virus.

 

[Terminalxylem]

I remember several discussions about proning in here a while back.  My wife was talking to another mom on my daughters cheer team who is an ER nurse.  She highly advised sleeping on your stomach if you get it.  Is that solid advice?  

Probably doesn’t matter for someone who isn’t sick enough to be hospitalized, but it’s simple and unlikely to cause harm.

But as a lifelong stomach sleeper, I can attest to occasional neck and back discomfort, likely from the strain it places on your spine.

 

[Big League Chew]

we finally broke 1000 pages. hows everyone doing hopefully well. k ill brb at 2000 pages

 

[Parrothead]

indoor concert

never heard of Trey Songz, but he's part of the problem

 

[Biff84]

Arizona blew up with 12k cases reported. Tuesday lag is expected but this is 20% increase over previous high and double normal bad days. Hospital and ICU numbers are getting close to record highs.

 

[top dog]

Ohio is expected to have a big jump today due to a backlog of antigen tests being processed. Basically,  due to overload, they are no longer going to be re-verifying these positive tests anymore. 

https://www.cleveland.com/open/2020/12/ohio-to-end-coronavirus-testing-backlog-will-stop-verification-of-positive-antigen-tests.html

 

[Ministry of Pain]

MOP's FL Update...it's not going well here in terms of battling the pandemic and much of it has to do with public distrust. It's easy if you live elsewhere to make sweeping judgements, same as it is for us here in Florida looking at California. But I want to share and try and help not further divide...

-Issue #1 and it's a huge problem are people who WILL NOT wear a mask INDOORS because they are not forced to by law. It's not mandatory although some businesses require them and won't serve you if you don't have one. But again Publix for example can only ask you nicely to wear them. Thankfully many or most of I'll say 90%+ wear them in the grocery stores but you go to a gas station/ 7-11 and it's 50/50 or worse. Many places it feels like people are having fun walking around indoors with no mask for what I can only think of is some way to strike back for their internal beliefs, it's hard to understand...or is it? 

-Issue #2 and this is the major problem as I can see it. I am a huge believer in mask indoors however I could not be more 180 once the sun hits my face and I look around and see so many folks packing on weight as they shelter indoors even without a Government mandate that I feel like I read on an MSN column yesterday, that I wish I had at my fingertips right now to quote you, but it said that public distrust in things like forcefully making people wear masks outdoors when we know it almost cannot be transmitted outdoors, there's exceptions but the chances go thru the roof when you go under the roof in badly circulated indoor facilities of all kinds, even with good air flow you stand a high chance of contracting this indoors. And I am in no way saying it's safe for people to sit outdoors in groups right on top of each other like at a Rock Concert for example, and I don't think Stadiums need to be packed right now. I'm mostly talking about dog parks, family parks, the beach, outdoor cycling, outdoor exercise with nobody hardly around you, no reason to be wearing a mask. 

So I think we could get 100% participation if they would start making policies that are not based on pseudo science. I am not in any way trying to argue with anyone in here, I almost lost my good friend of 25 years in ICU on Thanksgiving, my heart bleeds for all of you being impacted not just physically but emotionally, financially, and I know some of you have got the crummiest work schedules now you could have ever dreamed or had nightmares about. But at some point we have got to mend our differences and rally around what will unite us. It sickens me to see people laughing as they waltz inside places here in South Florida/Treasure Coast where I am but there isn't anything Ic an do other than verbally shame and you are asking for trouble if you do that so I mostly avoid all indoor spots right now. 

You know people are not going to all take the vaccine, I bet maybe half the country says no way so that can't be the only path to get us out of here. We must shape policies that include the largest umber of folks we can get into the middle and do the right thing. I am all for banning indoor dining in Florida, it seems crazy that folks are doing that and thinking it's safe. And my wife and I have had to stop in the middle of date nights and say "What the hell are we doing?" We almost tried to go to a movie the other night for no reason other than it's been 8 months and I said NO NO NO...we gotta just not do this right now and we went home and spun records for the rest of the night. 

It's hard right now, fatigue but C.A.D. Covid Anxiety Disorder keeps me at home more than anything else. I'm scared of how other people will behave when I am out in public, and it might have always been that way but now more than ever I am scared I will be pushed into a situation I don't want to be in. 

Be Safe everyone

 

[Ministry of Pain]

And this is how I am avoiding being indoors right now...

-I only buy my fruits and veggies at outdoor farmer's markets. Weather is great right now and so this is more of a treat than a real hassle. I don't buy a lot of processed foods so I stay out of the grocery stores this way. I was going for bread but I fixed that by now going to a small bakery just outside my neighborhood, all the bread is made by scratch sourdough starter and he has the bread wrapped up for me after I put my order in over the phone. The owner...24 years old and a Cornell Grad, I love this kid and he and I swap stories quickly when I am coming and going, I make pizzas at home out of his bread and send him photos. He made chocolate brioche rolls this past Sunday, he just slipped them in my bag, delicious with maple syrup on top.  

-Next, I buy whatever proteins/meats/fish I need from small markets around town, again order online curbside pick up. 

-Mrs and I did hit a Mexican Cantina near our house last night as the weather was in the 60s...would you believe these thin skinned Floridians were all inside shoulder to shoulder as we had the entire patio to ourselves? I mentioned my wife and I are in work hell right now and I won't make you feel sorry for us but we have been behaving and needed a couple shots of some high end tequila and our new friend Max was all too happy to hook us up like tow trucks but the astonishment of all these 20 and 30 somethings inside slobbering all over each other, we had to see it first hand but it's worse than you can imagine. 

We needed an escape last night for an hour or two, please forgive us. Back to my crib as it's been going back to March, when is this going to end? Yeah never I know.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I will also share what I hear from people I speak with who come here from other States much to my chagrin as I think they should close the airports in and out of here to people from other areas of the country...but when I ask one simple question about whether they would rather be here or there, the overwhelming response is they would prefer to be here in Florida with an option to be able to dine outside or just simply get outside in some fresh air and not feel the pandemic creeping around every turn. I try and remind them just as likely to catch it here especially indoors but most seem relieved to be out of places where they are at or near lockdown/stay at home status. 

I guess that's a normal response? I wish they wouldn't run down here but at the same time if you are suffering hard where you are at right now and if you have the means...Florida might serve you well for a little while. A lot of people tell stories of small businesses closing and being forced to come down this way, is that really true? I don't know that there is a definitive answer but it does seem like we are witnessing a push in seasonal visitors right now.  My Condo buildings don't usually fill up until after New Years but the parking lots are full now. 

 

[culdeus]

uh oh

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/08/no-alcohol-for-2-months-russia-tells-coronavirus-vaccine-recipients-a72280

 

[beer 30]

uh oh

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/12/08/no-alcohol-for-2-months-russia-tells-coronavirus-vaccine-recipients-a72280

 Think they told them before or after they got the vaccine? Going to get ugly in Mother Russia over the next few weeks.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

PA is on fire right now.

Currently PA is averaging 9,923 cases per day and there are 5,400 hospitalizations.

At the peak in the spring PA only averaged 1,700 cases per day and topped out at 2,800 hospitalizations.  

The spring numbers prompted major shut downs.  So far, nothing new here except in the city of philadelphia.  

 

[beer 30]

I will also share what I hear from people I speak with who come here from other States much to my chagrin as I think they should close the airports in and out of here to people from other areas of the country...but when I ask one simple question about whether they would rather be here or there, the overwhelming response is they would prefer to be here in Florida with an option to be able to dine outside or just simply get outside in some fresh air and not feel the pandemic creeping around every turn. I try and remind them just as likely to catch it here especially indoors but most seem relieved to be out of places where they are at or near lockdown/stay at home status. 

I guess that's a normal response? I wish they wouldn't run down here but at the same time if you are suffering hard where you are at right now and if you have the means...Florida might serve you well for a little while. A lot of people tell stories of small businesses closing and being forced to come down this way, is that really true? I don't know that there is a definitive answer but it does seem like we are witnessing a push in seasonal visitors right now.  My Condo buildings don't usually fill up until after New Years but the parking lots are full now. 

You know this since you live there but about 1/3 to a 1/2 of the country is going to be forced indoors shortly as winter descends on us. In areas that have been pretty stringent on lockdowns (OH, NY, MI to name a few), people are truly burnt, especially seeing the numbers rise again and even more extreme lockdowns being discussed. They don't have the option to go out to the open air market or hang at the beach or even walk outside for the most part. If we're seeing numbers spike now (with the expected surge from Thanksgiving just getting ready to kick in) what do you think December and then January are going to look like with Christmas and New Years? Then it gets really cold and you have even less of a chance to go outside until March.

It's going to get ugly this winter unless there is some dramatic shift in the public we haven't witnessed yet.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You know this since you live there but about 1/3 to a 1/2 of the country is going to be forced indoors shortly as winter descends on us. In areas that have been pretty stringent on lockdowns (OH, NY, MI to name a few), people are truly burnt, especially seeing the numbers rise again and even more extreme lockdowns being discussed. They don't have the option to go out to the open air market or hang at the beach or even walk outside for the most part. If we're seeing numbers spike now (with the expected surge from Thanksgiving just getting ready to kick in) what do you think December and then January are going to look like with Christmas and New Years? Then it gets really cold and you have even less of a chance to go outside until March.

It's going to get ugly this winter unless there is some dramatic shift in the public we haven't witnessed yet.

Excellent points all the way. 

-Like I said, if you have the means, Florida might be a place to run n hide for a few months. Miles of coastline far away from places like Miami. 

I feel terrible for as you describe things, people almost forced into catching Covid because they can't get outside at all. Miserable to say the least. 

 

[AAABatteries]

You know this since you live there but about 1/3 to a 1/2 of the country is going to be forced indoors shortly as winter descends on us. In areas that have been pretty stringent on lockdowns (OH, NY, MI to name a few), people are truly burnt, especially seeing the numbers rise again and even more extreme lockdowns being discussed. They don't have the option to go out to the open air market or hang at the beach or even walk outside for the most part. If we're seeing numbers spike now (with the expected surge from Thanksgiving just getting ready to kick in) what do you think December and then January are going to look like with Christmas and New Years? Then it gets really cold and you have even less of a chance to go outside until March.

It's going to get ugly this winter unless there is some dramatic shift in the public we haven't witnessed yet.

I keep hearing this but it seems like we could head this off some if we went back to SaH or SiP orders.  I'm not saying we should and I understand the implications of that for many can be life altering.  It just seems like staying indoors won't be too bad if we can avoid indoors with other people.

 

[beer 30]

I keep hearing this but it seems like we could head this off some if we went back to SaH or SiP orders.  I'm not saying we should and I understand the implications of that for many can be life altering.  It just seems like staying indoors won't be too bad if we can avoid indoors with other people.

I think we're all in pretty much agreement that getting ahead of this or at a minimum, slowing it down is not hard to do conceptually.

Because it was handled so poorly the first time around and created the wave of skepticism we see today, I don't think there is a snowballs chance in hell of pulling it off now.

 

[Maggot Brain]

Awesome breakdown on origins of the covid vaccines and corona virus

 

[AAABatteries]

Almost 3k deaths in the US today.  Good lord.

 

[Shatner!]

No idea who this person is but ran into on Facebook....

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=222007239447193&id=101805971467321

Today the FDA released Pfizer’s Phase III vaccine trial data. This is big, as this is the first time we, scientists, have seen the data. Pfizer’s report was 92 pages long and the FDA report was 53 pages long. And, yes, I read it all. Here are your cliff notes…

Things are looking good. Well, not just good, they are looking great. This trial was as clean as it can get. There is nothing (big) we didn't expect. 

Efficacy.

• We see benefit starting 14 days after the first dose (see Figure). This makes sense because it takes about 2 weeks for the immune system to make sufficient antibody protection after vaccination.

• After the first dose, efficacy was 52%. This is a fantastic for a single dose. 

• After your second dose (3 weeks later), efficacy is 95%. We are confident that efficacy ranges from 90-98%. 

• Efficacy doesn’t meaningfully differ by age, race/ethnicity, or comorbidity.  

Adverse events. 

• Overall, the Pfizer vaccination gives more adverse events than the flu vaccination but less than the shingles vaccine.

• The most common solicited adverse reaction (i.e. what we were expecting) were mild to moderate: injection site reactions (84.1%), fatigue (62.9%), headache (55.1%), muscle pain (38.3%), chills (31.9%), joint pain (23.6%), fever (14.2%)

• The chance of getting a serious adverse event was low (<0.5%). A severe event is more likely in the second dose than the first and were less frequent among older adults compared to younger participants.  

• An unsolicited (i.e. not expected) adverse event that came up more in the vaccine group was swollen lymph nodes (lymphadenopathy). 64 people in the vaccine group compared to 6 people in the placebo group. This could be related to the vaccine. 

• There were 4 people in the vaccine group that got Bell’s palsy (compared to 0 in the placebo group). These cases occurred at 3,

9, 37, and 48 days after vaccination. This isn’t much of a concern because it reflects the same rate of Bell’s palsy in the general population. Something to keep an eye on

• 6 people died during the trial (4 in placebo; 2 in vaccine group). Deaths were NOT related to the vaccine. Mostly related to heart attacks. 

There are a few unknowns. From this study, we do not know…

• Duration of protection

• Effectiveness against transmission

• Effectiveness or safety among certain high-risk populations, such as children less than 16 years of age, pregnant and lactating individuals, and immunocompromised individuals. There were just not enough people in the study to make meaningful conclusions. This likely means that the FDA will not approve emergency use for these populations. We will know more on Thursday.

• Benefits of individuals with prior COVID19 infection. But, given there is documented reinfection, the FDA stated that previously infected people could benefit from vaccination. 

Translation: This vaccine will likely be approved on Thursday. Which, by the way, will be streaming live. An event that will likely go down in history, albeit a bit boring, scientific, and long.

Love, YLE 

Non-facebook link: https://yourlocalepidemiologist.com/phase-iii-data/

Here is the FDA document: https://www.fda.gov/media/144245/download

Here is the Pfizer document: https://www.fda.gov/media/144246/download

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Update: Now my co-worker/friend above has tested positive today. 

Up to 2 clients and 3 employees (so far) that I'm aware of come up positive in past 7 days.

The state runs 7-8 residential facilities in the immediate area that I'm aware of. In news you wouldn't believe,  someone with the state thought it would be a WONDERFUL idea this morning to have ALL the state employees in these 7-8 facilities meet at ONCE outside the 1 COVID positive facility I work at on weekends to be fit with masks. Estimated to be about 70+ employees according to my co-worker were present. I truly couldn't believe it. I mean REALLY?!? I declined to attend. Lot of things ran though my mind. (The COVID positive co-worker/friend above attended.....he was advised of his positive result at this meetup)

Just a complete cluster#### beyond anyone's wildest imagination. 

Update: Now 4 employees (so far) at our residential house positive. Likely will be more with testing again today (and I'm the last to get news as only there weekends)

And other residential facilities now have positive cases (likely due to the above spreader event). The organizer of the event is reportedly "under investigation"/reassigned.

--------------

Also read that there's been 36k+ cases (!!) in past 2 weeks in Maricopa County (AZ). I haven't followed the #s at all, just seems crazy high.

 

[Dr_Zaius]

PA is on fire right now.

Currently PA is averaging 9,923 cases per day and there are 5,400 hospitalizations.

At the peak in the spring PA only averaged 1,700 cases per day and topped out at 2,800 hospitalizations.  

The spring numbers prompted major shut downs.  So far, nothing new here except in the city of philadelphia.  

Yeah, not a great trajectory for the Commonwealth.  Supposedly an announcement from Wolf today.  Hopefully the plateau is coming soon - the rate of increase in ICU seems to at least be slowing (from covidtracking):

11/3-11/10 : +31%

11/10-11/17 : +47%

11/17-11/24 : + 43%

11/24-12/1 : +17%

12/1-12/8 : +20%

 

[Biff84]

Well here we go, barring any setbacks I’ll start administering the COVID vaccine the day after Christmas and will probably receive it before that. We will be immunizing Group 1B in AZ which includes essential workers, high risk medical conditions and adults over 65. Very broad categories, so hopefully they’ve got a good plan to decide who gets it or it will be a huge mess.

 

[jamny]

UK issues allergy warning about Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine after patients fall ill

Two people who were jabbed with Pfizer’s recently-approved coronavirus vaccine in the UK had to be treated for serious adverse reactions — leading to warnings that those with “significant” allergies may not be able to get it.

The unidentified duo — both staff in the UK’s National Health Service (NHS) — needed treatment for an “anaphylactoid reaction” Tuesday after they were among the first in the world to get the shot.

They both had serious reactions, but recovered after treatment, the NHS said.

The pair both had a history of allergic responses, and each carried an adrenaline shot — sometimes called EpiPens — used to save people from potentially fatal reactions. 

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) immediately issued precautionary advice against vaccinating anyone with a history of “significant” allergic reactions to medicines, food or vaccines.

The medical regulator also said vaccinations should be carried out only in facilities that have resuscitation equipment.

“Two people with a history of significant allergic reactions responded adversely yesterday,” said professor Stephen Powis, national medical director for the NHS in England, adding that “both are recovering well.”

“The MHRA have advised on a precautionary basis that people with a significant history of allergic reactions do not receive this vaccination,” he said, insisting the advice was “common with new vaccines.”

The head of the regulatory agency, Dr. June Raine, noted the adverse responses to the vaccine while reporting to a Parliament committee Wednesday.

“We know from the very extensive clinical trials that this wasn’t a feature,” she said.

“But if we need to strengthen our advice, now that we have had this experience with the vulnerable populations, the groups who have been selected as a priority, we get that advice to the field immediately.”

Pfizer and BioNTech said they were working with investigators “to better understand each case and its causes.″

Stephen Evans, a professor of pharmacoepidemiology at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, said it should not alarm the general public.

“For the general population, this does not mean that they would need to be anxious about receiving the vaccination,” he said. 

“One has to remember that even things like marmite can cause unexpected severe allergic reactions.”

 

[Willy]

My wife saw that allergic reaction reported on the news, funny they didn't mention that these two individuals have severe allergies to the point they are walking around with EpiPens.  Thankfully the story above mentions it.  My guess is stuff like this is just going to reinforce the opinion the anti-vaxxers had before any negative news came out.  Wait until people who get the vaccine then get sick & die of something that would have happened regardless of getting a vaccine start popping up in the media.  I just get the feeling there will be an initial rush of folks getting the vaccine, then it will be nothing but resistance by people who are bad at math and don't understand spurious correlation.  Such a shame.  

 

[Dr_Zaius]

My wife saw that allergic reaction reported on the news, funny they didn't mention that these two individuals have severe allergies to the point they are walking around with EpiPens.  Thankfully the story above mentions it.  My guess is stuff like this is just going to reinforce the opinion the anti-vaxxers had before any negative news came out.  Wait until people who get the vaccine then get sick & die of something that would have happened regardless of getting a vaccine start popping up in the media.  I just get the feeling there will be an initial rush of folks getting the vaccine, then it will be nothing but resistance by people who are bad at math and don't understand spurious correlation.  Such a shame.  

There will definitely be people who used this as an excuse, but there are more people with severe allergies than you may realize.  I carry around an EpiPen, and this news is certainly concerning to me.