ex-ghost
Footballguy
And here it is, Fueurstein hit piece: https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/31/cytodyn-leronlimab-covid19-pourhassan-call/
Was there any doubt?And here it is, Fueurstein hit piece: https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/31/cytodyn-leronlimab-covid19-pourhassan-call/
Didn't he have to wait until today as there was a 10% loss Wednesday?Was there any doubt?![]()
Seems the surge at the EOD on Wednesday brought them under the 10% loss.Didn't he have to wait until today as there was a 10% loss Wednesday?
I got more at 4.89 myselfin for 1100 more shares at 4.89. was making coffee and couldn't get lower![]()
This is just based on my experience from selling to doctors with clinical info. The primary endpoint stated day 14 as the point in timeline to be evaluated. It doesn't matter if they are better at day 3. If by day 14 the placebo caught up with effectiveness (or just closed the gap on significance) many docs won't read deep enough to even learn that. They'll label it a failed trial. Also, "clinical improvement" does not equal "statistical significance." Not sure if they'll run KM curves on this data, but if they do what matters is where they end. It's like saying that the Falcons were really beating the Pats in the Super Bowl, just not at the end.From the transcript:
NP - 06:50 / 07:32
Thank you Scott. So, in regards to the results of RCD-10 , as of today, we do have positive efficacy results in RCD-10 and and the data is still being evaluated to find more positive aspects. In regards to our primary endpoint, clinical improvement was scored in four categories: fever, body aches, difficulty to breathe, and cough. We have seen improvement in day 3 versus day zero in leronlimab arm as compared to placebo arm.
The improvement in Day 3 was related to the M/M primary endpoint (fever, body aches, difficulty breathing and cough).
But if it improved at day 3 maybe the negative effects that typically come by day 14 won’t be there? I have no idea, just spitballing.This is just based on my experience from selling to doctors with clinical info. The primary endpoint stated day 14 as the point in timeline to be evaluated. It doesn't matter if they are better at day 3. If by day 14 the placebo caught up with effectiveness (or just closed the gap on significance) many docs won't read deep enough to even learn that. They'll label it a failed trial. Also, "clinical improvement" does not equal "statistical significance." Not sure if they'll run KM curves on this data, but if they do what matters is where they end. It's like saying that the Falcons were really beating the Pats in the Super Bowl, just not at the end.
As an example, at one time I managed in a company where a product had a trial where the primary endpoint was "trending towards significance" (meaning it didn't achieve proper p-value, but did show consistent improvement versus standard of care). Then on a secondary endpoint - which is traditionally "more important" than the primary - we did hit statistical significance. If that had actually been our primary endpoint it would have meant shiploads of new orders. But because the primary didn't meet significance our business lost a large percentage almost overnight. Took better part of 2 years to recover.
Again, it wasn't for a pandemic problem type of solution, but I can only speak to what I know. I'm not going to make crap up on this stuff just to take a stand. Just want to give folks my perspective.
Thanks for your perspective and knowledge of the process. I do think that present circumstances may have a bearing on outcome or at least have an impact on what the FDA will do. These aren't typical times. But who knows?This is just based on my experience from selling to doctors with clinical info. The primary endpoint stated day 14 as the point in timeline to be evaluated. It doesn't matter if they are better at day 3. If by day 14 the placebo caught up with effectiveness (or just closed the gap on significance) many docs won't read deep enough to even learn that. They'll label it a failed trial. Also, "clinical improvement" does not equal "statistical significance." Not sure if they'll run KM curves on this data, but if they do what matters is where they end. It's like saying that the Falcons were really beating the Pats in the Super Bowl, just not at the end.
As an example, at one time I managed in a company where a product had a trial where the primary endpoint was "trending towards significance" (meaning it didn't achieve proper p-value, but did show consistent improvement versus standard of care). Then on a secondary endpoint - which is traditionally "more important" than the primary - we did hit statistical significance. If that had actually been our primary endpoint it would have meant shiploads of new orders. But because the primary didn't meet significance our business lost a large percentage almost overnight. Took better part of 2 years to recover.
Again, it wasn't for a pandemic problem type of solution, but I can only speak to what I know. I'm not going to make crap up on this stuff just to take a stand. Just want to give folks my perspective.
Well...lucky me. Got back in at 4.75 this morning back to my 100% position at a lower overall PPS.Disappointed I sold yesterday as if I'd just held on, I'd have 100% of my position instead of the 70% I bought back at open today. I'll be looking to add back the 30% over the next few days if possible.So I guess this begs the question. After today are you happy you got out yesterday or disappointed?
My actions lately are proof of the following:
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." - Warren Buffett
Thanks. Just tried to set one for the 1000 extra shares that I just bought but TD says that they do not allow trailing stop orders for OTC stocks. Hopefully will only be an issue with CYDY for a few more weeks.Yes. you can set to follow by dollar amount or percent drop. It follows the high and sells if it ever drops by the set amount from the high.
Would it be correct to assume that the endpoints the physicians were monitoring were for phase 3 trials, rather than phase 2 trials?This is just based on my experience from selling to doctors with clinical info. The primary endpoint stated day 14 as the point in timeline to be evaluated. It doesn't matter if they are better at day 3. If by day 14 the placebo caught up with effectiveness (or just closed the gap on significance) many docs won't read deep enough to even learn that. They'll label it a failed trial. Also, "clinical improvement" does not equal "statistical significance." Not sure if they'll run KM curves on this data, but if they do what matters is where they end. It's like saying that the Falcons were really beating the Pats in the Super Bowl, just not at the end.
As an example, at one time I managed in a company where a product had a trial where the primary endpoint was "trending towards significance" (meaning it didn't achieve proper p-value, but did show consistent improvement versus standard of care). Then on a secondary endpoint - which is traditionally "more important" than the primary - we did hit statistical significance. If that had actually been our primary endpoint it would have meant shiploads of new orders. But because the primary didn't meet significance our business lost a large percentage almost overnight. Took better part of 2 years to recover.
Again, it wasn't for a pandemic problem type of solution, but I can only speak to what I know. I'm not going to make crap up on this stuff just to take a stand. Just want to give folks my perspective.
Anyone have access to the text or the major points of his piece? Paywall.And here it is, Fueurstein hit piece: https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/31/cytodyn-leronlimab-covid19-pourhassan-call/
wtf? Easy racistWhats funny is that I'm sure the cydy clowns are complaining to each other about how the market doesn't understand how great what they are seeing is. Speak english in complete sentences!
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I don't like this guy, especially since I've seen him completely lie in the past. That being said, this article summed up the short argument as good as you can. He got his confirmation bias from the call yesterday and is running with it. This article doesn't seem over the top if that's what you believe.CytoDyn CEO claims Covid-19 drug success while describing data suggesting study failure
https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/31/cytodyn-leronlimab-covid19-pourhassan-call/
Not sure if this iswtf? Easy racist
but when the first comments from the subsequent short article are "disjointed comments to investors" and cydy forums across the planet are trying to interpret what they said ...its pretty clear they do not know how to communicate.I thought you meant that towards NPNot sure if this isbut when the first comments from the subsequent short article are "disjointed comments to investors" and cydy forums across the planet are trying to interpret what they said ...its pretty clear they do not know how to communicate.
Agreed. His article this time was pretty well done. Stayed close to facts, didn't require lying to make a point, and raised some reasonable questions about the reliability of NP, lack of results, etc.I don't like this guy, especially since I've seen him completely lie in the past. That being said, this article summed up the short argument as good as you can. He got his confirmation bias from the call yesterday and is running with it. This article doesn't seem over the top if that's what you believe.
It is odd that he has gone all in multiple times when he doesn't have all the data either. Seems like he's risking some kind of rep here by constantly digging into an unknown endpoint but maybe it will be completely forgotten when he exposes a different fraud later. There are no shortage of frauds in this industry.
If you are talking about my anecdote about our "failed trial" in the past, the answer is not exactly. The product was already approved by the FDA and in the market for a while. Clinical trials don't really stop on many drugs/devices once FDA approval is in place. Just because something is approved doesn't mean every doc writes for it, or even those that do write for it do so for every indication. I genuinely can't speak to how the FDA is going to respond to endpoints for phase 2 vs phase 3 - my answers have always been geared to how I think clinicians practicing in the hospitals would respond to the data.Would it be correct to assume that the endpoints the physicians were monitoring were for phase 3 trials, rather than phase 2 trials?
I don't see it the same way. There's all sorts of word-bending taking place. For example, "But in describing the leronlimab data, Pourhassan only said the drug improved symptoms after three days, not the 14 days set as the study’s endpoint. If that’s the case, it would suggest the 75-person trial failed to achieve its primary goal. Generally, the FDA does not approve drugs which cannot prove a benefit for patients, even those with Covid-19."I don't like this guy, especially since I've seen him completely lie in the past. That being said, this article summed up the short argument as good as you can. He got his confirmation bias from the call yesterday and is running with it. This article doesn't seem over the top if that's what you believe.
It is odd that he has gone all in multiple times when he doesn't have all the data either. Seems like he's risking some kind of rep here by constantly digging into an unknown endpoint but maybe it will be completely forgotten when he exposes a different fraud later. There are no shortage of frauds in this industry.
Well, I did mean them towards the entire cydy team, NP is the lead.I thought you meant that towards NP![]()
Exactly the way I took it, too. They figured they’d see the results on day 14 because they’ve already had luck with severe patients. Getting good results that early was a surprise benefit. This is also what Dr. Patterson said on Dr. Been. It would be a HUGE advantage in dealing with Covid if we can prevent people from being m/m and deteriorating into s/c.I don't see it the same way. There's all sorts of word-bending taking place. For example, "But in describing the leronlimab data, Pourhassan only said the drug improved symptoms after three days, not the 14 days set as the study’s endpoint. If that’s the case, it would suggest the 75-person trial failed to achieve its primary goal. Generally, the FDA does not approve drugs which cannot prove a benefit for patients, even those with Covid-19."
This was a point Lalezari made to describe a surprise benefit, something he saw occurring sooner than anticipated.
If only there was a forum, i dunno like an investor call, where they could have communicated this more clearly.Exactly the way I took it, too. They figured they’d see the results on day 14 because they’ve already had luck with severe patients. Getting good results that early was a surprise benefit. This is also what Dr. Patterson said on Dr. Been. It would be a HUGE advantage in dealing with Covid if we can prevent people from being m/m and deteriorating into s/c.
I get what you guys are saying and hope you are right but there were gaps into what was communicated. Feuerstein just tears into the gaps and uses it for his own confirmation bias.Exactly the way I took it, too. They figured they’d see the results on day 14 because they’ve already had luck with severe patients. Getting good results that early was a surprise benefit. This is also what Dr. Patterson said on Dr. Been. It would be a HUGE advantage in dealing with Covid if we can prevent people from being m/m and deteriorating into s/c.
Nader: I'm so excited to share my excitement about these exciting results. I am pleased to announce that we have seen positive results in one of our endpoints. I don't have the topline results for the other endpoints, nobody has seen them, but I can tell you they are good. In addition, I observed one of the patients eyelid move while in a coma and that was incredible. Eyelids don't move in ECMO! And I'd just like to say that I wish all the evil shorters would stop being mean and understand how great this data that I have shared with you is.McBokonon said:Sounds like NP just needs to do a quick interview on $tockXplode!!! one more time to clear everything up.
I hope that new round of funding wasn’t just to pay for these ads.
Makes sense. I'm just under the impression (asking for input in case it's false) that most clinicians are responding to phase 3 trials as those are the ones that guide clinical decision more often than phase 2 results. Phase 2 results, again maybe I have this wrong, are often used to figure out safety and how effective the drug is in various areas. That's why I think treating primary endpoints and secondary endpoints in phase 2 trials as the same as in phase 3 trials isn't necessarily fair.Polish Hammer said:If you are talking about my anecdote about our "failed trial" in the past, the answer is not exactly. The product was already approved by the FDA and in the market for a while. Clinical trials don't really stop on many drugs/devices once FDA approval is in place. Just because something is approved doesn't mean every doc writes for it, or even those that do write for it do so for every indication. I genuinely can't speak to how the FDA is going to respond to endpoints for phase 2 vs phase 3 - my answers have always been geared to how I think clinicians practicing in the hospitals would respond to the data.
He's not a very bright guy. Still fascinates me that he's the CEO. I don't think he became that on merit.Nader: I'm so excited to share my excitement about these exciting results. I am please to announce that we have seen positive results in one of our endpoints. I don't have the topline results for the other endpoints, but I can tell you they are good. In addition, I observed one of the patients eyelid move while in a coma and that was incredible. Eyelids don't move in ECMO! And I'd just like to say that I wish all the evil shorters would stop being mean and understand how great this data that have shared with you is.
I see the same thing. And this comment you quoted is basically the only new piece of ammo that AF is using in the article. NP promised an update. He gave an update. He didn't provide all efficacy detailed data. That is coming, he said, in "10 days or so."⚡DEADHEAD⚡ said:I don't see it the same way. There's all sorts of word-bending taking place. For example, "But in describing the leronlimab data, Pourhassan only said the drug improved symptoms after three days, not the 14 days set as the study’s endpoint. If that’s the case, it would suggest the 75-person trial failed to achieve its primary goal. Generally, the FDA does not approve drugs which cannot prove a benefit for patients, even those with Covid-19."
This was a point Lalezari made to describe a surprise benefit, something he saw occurring sooner than anticipated.
NP embellishes. He's not in control of his public messaging. He's an effective excitement machine, but his promises have fallen through repeatedly, and you can't count on his word in terms of deadlines or the precision of facts he's saying he's stating. It's a risk you run believing him.djmich said:Well, I did mean them towards the entire cydy team, NP is the lead.
I've defended NP a lot of times here in terms of everything he's accomplished to bring this company to where it is today. Some folks throw that away almost as luck, I think its incredible and admirable.
That does not change the fact that him and his organization are doing a monumentally poor job communicating. I could give two ####s about his accent if thats what you think I was referring to, I give many ####s about the fact that they cannot communicate completely and clearly.
Does NP's command of the language get in the way, I don't think so but I also t think at best it is not helping. Here's an example, they literally have to re-issue PR's because the sentence structure is incorrect....its missing words! I'm not even saying its missing a medical term or incomplete its missing basic words. And then from yesterdays call we are all trying to figure out what the #### this guy actually told us because he cannot or refuses to provide complete information in a sentence structure that is understandable by investors.
I'll end with these guys talk with an excitement like "they have the nuts" and literally every time they open their mouths the stock goes down. Either they are charlatans or can't communicate.