At the end of the day, we're still talking about opportunity/potential. The fact that he couldn't beat out Sanders for the #2 position last season is concerning. I hope that he makes a 3rd year jump this season, again because I have multiple shares. But he's a 4th/5th WR on those teams where I can afford a "solid chance dart throw". If I'm not in that position, then I absolutely take the 23 1st if I can get it. I've shopped him around a bit this spring/summer and never got more than a late 2nd offer for him.
Too much is being made out of "couldn't beat out" two solid veterans. Some teams defer to veterans and some coaches like the security that comes with veterans that know what they are doing on the field. Those guys were still solid contributors. As it is Davis only saw 9 less targets than Sanders last season so the transition was starting.
I get next year is some miraculous draft class where no player can miss, but for me I'd much rather hold onto Davis and see mediocre results than trade away a 23 year old that puts up a 78-1,125-10 type season for a chance of getting a WR that may put up those numbers someday or may be the next N'Keal Harry.
Exactly what I’ve been saying.
I said pretty much the same about Davis’ 1st two seasons. You can’t knock the dude’s production because the coaches wanted to play experienced vets over a 21-22 year old kid. And when you evaluate his on-field production, it was actually very impressive.
The “couldn’t beat out Sanders or Beasley” thing seems like an inaccurate narrative.
Again - don’t overpay for him, but if you can get Davis with a late ‘23 1st, I’d absolutely do it. Maybe it doesn’t turn out to be a bargain, but I doubt it’s an overpay.
And on the other side, for that late “23 1st to be worth taking over Gabe Davis, they’d have to land on an offense with a good QB, develop chemistry with said QB, have the opportunity to get a high % of offensive snaps, be productive year 1, and be utilized a ton in the red zone. That sounds like a unicorn in the 8-12 range, but hey, it happens.
I got Waddle and Jefferson at 8 in the last 2 drafts that and 23 is suppose to be better than the last 2 right? I get people are high on Gabe Davis but that pick could end up being something special, if you don't feel Davis is special then that pick could very much be an overpay. I'd much rather have Waddle or JJ over him by a mile. I do like Davis but I don't know that shipping a late 1st in a deep draft is automatically a good move. It definitely could turn out to be that as he has upside so it is fair but not a deal I would make. I think an early 2nd is what I would pay and maybe include a 3rd. I'll keep my 1sts in a deep draft and take my swings for the fence.
Sure if you want to automatically assume the best case scenario for the pick it’s a no brainer to take the pick. Of course we could probably list a ton of players in the draft pick range that failed miserably as well.
Not always best case but can't say those aren't out there if you do your research and draft right. Failures will happen but I'd rather take the swing with a chance of failing than trade for a WR2 that I don't feel has 1 upside. Just my thoughts. I know some people are way high on Davis and some people don't trust their drafting as much as I do either. I conceded that a trade like that is safer and fair. Just not a move I would do. If I'm giving a 1st round pick, I want someone with the upside of being a 1 in fantasy at their position and I don't see that with Davis.
I think Davis has plenty of upside, so obviously we disagree there by a lot.
But I do find the narrative fascinating that a player who hasn’t yet had the opportunity for a ~80% target share, and who’s about to get that 80%.+ target share, is somehow being viewed by many as a player without upside.
It’s like he’s being judged for a season he hasn’t yet had, and yet is being downgraded for that, despite most indicators suggesting he’s going to have a monster season.
I’m not saying this is all about you/your position, just what l have observed for several months in the FF community.
And it seems a little incongruous.
My position with Davis is that he’s about to have this tremendous opportunity in a high powered offense, so if the price is right I’m willing to invest, betting that he uses his remarkable size/skills/opportunity to produce at a high level. His floor seems extremely safe as a FF WR2, and I’m not sure why some see that as his ceiling (as your post seems to imply).
What’s his ultimate ceiling? Who knows, he’s only 23, and he plays next to an alpha receiver in Diggs. But he sure seemed to show us a sneak preview of his upside with that 4 TD playoff performance, right?
I’ve also seen the same folks both dismiss that 4-TD game as a fluke or 1-off, yet also question what his upside is. I mean, isn’t that a contradiction?
I’m not saying he’s going to have that sort of game every week (and the Bills would likely hate to be in shootouts like that every week) but like, if THAT wasn’t a WR1 performance, then maybe I don’t understand football as much as I thought I did.
So when it comes to Davis & his upside, I’m willing to make that bet, and see how 2022 plays out. And if his floor is indeed WR2 with a couple spike games, then his future is probably pretty bright. Davis seems like the type of player who works hard to improve his game, and by all accounts that’s accurate.
If so, it’s difficult for me to imagine a scenario where FF WR2 is his ceiling. He’s already shown us he can be more, he just hasn’t had the opportunity yet.
