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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (11 Viewers)

facook said:
Hey I figured other's would respond to you so I left it alone.  My very mushy opinion is don't tail anyone blindly, certainly no one in this thread except  @TheGooRoo or @swirvenirvin on player props if you can get them to post some for this weekend.  If you want some input from a bunch of degenerates post the games you're leaning toward and we'll talk you into or out of betting them. :)  
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Early nfl leans:

tampa +1 vs bears

det +3 at dallas

Buffalo +10.5 at gb 

Hou pk at Indy 

Mia +7.5 at ne 

Cle +1 at oak 

No -3 at nyg 

Ncaa (don’t follow closely)

seen a lot of people on South Carolina +1 at Kentucky

Syr +22 at Clem 

Purdue -3 at neb 

FSU -6 at lv 

BYU +17 at wash 

stan +4.5 at Nd 

 
3 hour lunch said:
Early nfl leans:

tampa +1 vs bears

det +3 at dallas

Buffalo +10.5 at gb 

Hou pk at Indy 

Mia +7.5 at ne 

Cle +1 at oak 

No -3 at nyg 

Ncaa (don’t follow closely)

seen a lot of people on South Carolina +1 at Kentucky

Syr +22 at Clem 

Purdue -3 at neb 

FSU -6 at lv 

BYU +17 at wash 

stan +4.5 at Nd 
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If you bet on that many games, you're going to lose money.

 
Buccanneers TT U27.5, -105

The logic here is regression. Ryan Fitzpatrick will come back to earth at this point and even 27.5 points is generous. It's MNF and the Steelers are going to be hungry for a win. I'm not going to get fooled by 2 big games from a journeyman Quarterback. The bottom will fall out at some point and at the very least, there will be cracks in the armor tonight.

 
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3 hour lunch said:
Early nfl leans:

tampa +1 vs bears

det +3 at dallas

Buffalo +10.5 at gb 

Hou pk at Indy 

Mia +7.5 at ne 

Cle +1 at oak 

No -3 at nyg 

Ncaa (don’t follow closely)

seen a lot of people on South Carolina +1 at Kentucky

Syr +22 at Clem 

Purdue -3 at neb 

FSU -6 at lv 

BYU +17 at wash 

stan +4.5 at Nd 
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Let it marinate, and we'll discuss more through the week.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
Buccanneers TT U27.5, -105

The logic here is regression. Ryan Fitzpatrick will come back to earth at this point and even 27.5 points is generous. It's MNF and the Steelers are going to be hungry for a win. I'm not going to get fooled by 2 big games from a journeyman Quarterback. The bottom will fall out at some point and at the very least, there will be cracks in the armor tonight.
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Good call here brohanni 

 
gussy said:
Good call here brohanni 
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Thanks, I appreciate the shout out especially from you. But no time to celebrate just yet. Steelers trying to give it away with 115 penalty yards. Tampa Bay punches it in here and my bet is likely toast. I'll probably hedge out if that's the case. League is getting really, really soft.
 

ETA: Held them to a FG! Game on, baby.  :banned:

 
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Padres / Giants U25 HRE, -115

Still getting my data together on this. But it starts with the under 60 degree weather. San Francisco is a tough place to play longball. It's a Monday workday for two teams that have already booked their vacation plans.

More data, but like I said still finishing up on analysis.

 
Stuart Ullman said:
If you bet on that many games, you're going to lose money.
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Is it impossible to do better than 6-6 or something? I’ve bet on every game of the first two rounds of March madness and come out ahead. Realize you’re generally better off betting fewer, but it’s mostly about rooting interest sitting in the sportsbook to me 

 
3 hour lunch said:
Is it impossible to do better than 6-6 or something? I’ve bet on every game of the first two rounds of March madness and come out ahead. Realize you’re generally better off betting fewer, but it’s mostly about rooting interest sitting in the sportsbook to me 
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I've talked a few times about the baseball guy I began following in June. He literally bets on 15-20 games/totals every day. I've never been a proponent of that but he is up 70 some units on the year, I am up somewhere around 40 units just since June. He had one Thursday a few weeks ago where he literally bet every side and total of the day and hit every one.

 
gussy said:
I've talked a few times about the baseball guy I began following in June. He literally bets on 15-20 games/totals every day. I've never been a proponent of that but he is up 70 some units on the year, I am up somewhere around 40 units just since June. He had one Thursday a few weeks ago where he literally bet every side and total of the day and hit every one.
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Should have done a parlay  :ph34r: . I’m not a huge fan of betting things I’m not going to watch, but may do a few baseball plays as well out there...

 
3 hour lunch said:
Is it impossible to do better than 6-6 or something? I’ve bet on every game of the first two rounds of March madness and come out ahead. Realize you’re generally better off betting fewer, but it’s mostly about rooting interest sitting in the sportsbook to me 
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I mean, you could. But generally speaking, I wouldn't suggest anybody who doesn't sportsbet on a regular basis to pick 12 games and try to get them all right. For recreation, sure. Knock yourself out. But for making money, you want your money on the plays you're the most confident on and that's it. Pace yourself. Let the 12PM games finish before you bet on the 2PM games. By the time the late games are on, where is your bankroll? Can you afford to bet at the same pace you did earlier?

It helps mitigate risk. I personally don't make more than one bet at a time. To most effectively manage my bankroll, I need to know exactly where I stand at all times. If I have 2 games that look like winners that end up losing and I bet money thinking they've won, it can get ugly fast.

Long story short, you could get lucky. If you're trying to have fun, have fun. Don't let me put  a damper on the good time. But if you're trying your best to walk away with a profit, that's a different approach entirely.

 
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Stuart Ullman said:
I mean, you could. But generally speaking, I wouldn't suggest anybody who doesn't sportsbet on a regular basis to pick 12 games and try to get them all right. For recreation, sure. Knock yourself out. But for making money, you want your money on the plays you're the most confident on and that's it.

It helps mitigate risk as well. I personally don't make more than one bet at a time. To most effectively manage my bankroll, I need to know exactly where I stand at all times. If I have 2 games that look like winners that end up losing and I bet money thinking they've won, it can get ugly fast.

Long story short, you could get lucky. If you're trying to have fun, have fun. Don't let me put  a damper on the good time. But if you're trying your best to walk away with a profit, that's a different approach entirely.
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I think this guys thought process is that he thinks he's good enough to go .500 or so most days, but he's trying to hit one big day a week, which he does.
It's literally almost a job trying to line shop and enter that many games on the 3 outs I use, but it's paid off. I've had numerous days where I think why am
I doing this to go .500 and lose vig, but then I'll have a 14-4 day or something and it's all worth it. I've never seen someone bet like this and have it work.
Very possible just beginners luck, he's a stats guy who LITERALLY just started gambling around a year ago. It's all analytics. He's also already up over 20
units on CFB, although I haven't been tailing him. I probably should with how my season is going...........

 
Stuart Ullman said:
IIt helps mitigate risk as well. I personally don't make more than one bet at a time. To most effectively manage my bankroll, I need to know exactly where I stand at all times. If I have 2 games that look like winners that end up losing and I bet money thinking they've won, it can get ugly fast.
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:loco:   I know how you bet and get why you said this, but that first sentence is so out of place with the rest of this paragraph.  This past Saturday, I made 40 bets and only risked half my bankroll in total.  That is bankroll management. 

 
That moment when you swear you are going to lose $2500 and one run cuts the loss to $250.....

i feel like I just won $2250!

 
For me, it's also a comfort to make one bet and be able to sit down and watch one game.

I don't want to flip the channel 20 times or have to fumble around with flipping through apps. If my bet goes to crap, I find a new game to bet on.

That's also why I bet 1H. Nothing makes me tilt worse than watching a game where my bet loses. Why stretch that pain to 3 hours?

 
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3 hour lunch said:
Is it impossible to do better than 6-6 or something? I’ve bet on every game of the first two rounds of March madness and come out ahead. Realize you’re generally better off betting fewer, but it’s mostly about rooting interest sitting in the sportsbook to me 
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Stu thinks he can get rich doing this. His approach is not for a guy heading to Vegas for a one off weekend. Go out, have fun.  Ask yourself how much you’re willing to “spend” on sports gambling, and what you’re comfortable losing on any one game. Don’t bet more than that on one game and I’d at @regularguy‘s 1/2 your bankroll in play in a day is safe.  Don’t put all your money at risk for one set of games.  Spread out the bets and enjoy the trip.  I’ll be doing the same the weekend of Oct 5. Can’t wait!!

 
Stuart Ullman said:
For me, it's also a comfort to make one bet and be able to sit down and watch one game.

I don't want to flip the channel 20 times or have to fumble around with flipping through apps. If my bet goes to crap, I find a new game to bet on.

That's also why I bet 1H. Nothing makes me tilt worse than watching a game where my bet loses. Why stretch that pain to 3 hours?
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Stu you’re not giving bad advice but this guy is going to Vegas for 1 weekend, not trying to make this an income source. Unless at this point you’re just talking general philosophy which if so, carry on.

 
The League of Legends World Championships begin Monday, October 1.

:excited:

And the meta is ####in' wild.

:excited: :excited:

 
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Buccanneers U27.5, -115 (W), -105

Padres / Giants U25 HRE (P), -125

1-0-1 (100%)

Current Run:

Sunday: 3-1
Monday: 1-1
Tuesday: 3-2
Wednesday: 2-3-1
Thursday: 1-1
Friday: 2-1-1
Saturday: 4-2
Sunday: 3-1
Monday: 1-0-1

20-13-3 (60.60%)
 
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regularguy said:
:loco:   I know how you bet and get why you said this, but that first sentence is so out of place with the rest of this paragraph.  This past Saturday, I made 40 bets and only risked half my bankroll in total.  That is bankroll management. 
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Only half your bankroll? Pretty sure on a Saturday that has cfb, mlb, NASCAR, golf and nfl the next day you should be betting your entire bankroll, rookie

 
Nationals / Marlins U25.5 HRE, -110

Max Scherzer on the mound. He can throw a 3-4 hit complete game shutout, which would put the Nationals on the line for 21+ HRE.

Nationals are favored, so not bottom of the 9th.

 
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been on fire in CFB to start the season  ... losing my first game because of the 17 points in under 7 min Miami gave up.

Told you North Texas last week ..... favorable play this week as well/

This week strong plays I like --

Texas A&M

Troy

Hawaii

New Mexico ( see if Liberty can keep getting blown out)

 
Since the reincarnation of Thursday Night Football in 2006, only 10 teams have had to do what Minnesota is doing this week: Flying two time zones west for a short week Thursday game. 

In those 10 games, the visiting team has gone 0-10 and failed to cover the spread all 10 times. 

 
Wu-banger said:
been on fire in CFB to start the season  ... losing my first game because of the 17 points in under 7 min Miami gave up.

Told you North Texas last week ..... favorable play this week as well/

This week strong plays I like --

Texas A&M

Troy

Hawaii

New Mexico ( see if Liberty can keep getting blown out)
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Love me some Mean Green. Also, this post is kinda whack without spreads.

Spreads are surely going to get pushed around before kickoff. Or are you advocating for the ML?

 
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