*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (9 Viewers)

[Bojang0301]

James Conner o/u 3 rec and 29.5yds receiving: 6 targets last week for 5/50. Going off of preseason use and history of Steelers backs I think this trend continues and am taking the over on both.

Chris Thompson o/u 37.5 yds recieving: gone over this number 5 of his 10 games last year. He’s at over a 50% snap share this season. I think this happens more consistently this year with Smith not looking downfield like Cousins. Over.

Jack Doyle o/u 4.5 receptions: Doyle had 10 targets last week and reached 5 receptions 13 of 16 games last year. Over, $$$

That’s all I got for now. Thinking about taking Duke Johnson over 49.5 yds total and Brees over 302.5 but don’t have as good a rationale for those.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Houston -4 (-115)

Alvin Kamara over 70.5 (-115)

David Njoku score a TD anytime- YES- (+250)

5 Team parlay

Skins -6

Bills +7.5

Cards +13

Cowboys -3

Seahawks +3.5

That parlay was built effing around with game lines vs 538 Elo lines. Basically if there was a huge discrepancy, I leaned into it. For example, the line on Bovada is Buffalo +7.5, but the Elo line is Buffalo -1. The Elo on Rams/Cards was Rams -7, etc

Wonder what a strategy like this with probabilities vs money lines would be like. So for example they give AZ a 26% chance to win. Bovada has the money line at +525. So the money line there is a good play based on that statistical model. The Titans money line is a really good play since it is +165 and they have a 70% probability. Buffalo is also a great play.

 

[lumpy19]

I feel really good about all my bets today, gonna be an awful day

 

[hagmania]

I feel really good about all my bets today, gonna be an awful day

I liked in support of, not making light of.

 

[Billy Bats]

Deion Jones our for Falcons, big day for Christian.

McCaffrey O5.5 rec -145, O53.5 Rec Yds (local)

 

[hagmania]

Since 2016, regular season games with a total>=50 are 24-15-0 O/U. (>=53 7-4-0)

Did somebody say over? PIT-KC o53

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Since 2016, regular season games with a total>=50 are 24-15-0 O/U. (>=53 7-4-0)

Did somebody say over? PIT-KC o53

52.5 here

 

[hagmania]

52.5 here

Good on you.

 

[hagmania]

Playoff games in that timespan are 4-0-0. Saw will remember this post.

 

[parasaurolophus]

Since 2016, regular season games with a total>=50 are 24-15-0 O/U. (>=53 7-4-0)

Did somebody say over? PIT-KC o53

I took Pitt over 29.5 so I like where your head's at. 

 

[Stuart Ullman]

Sorry about that, pal. I had to call PNC Bank Services to remove a block on my card.

FH - Panthers O9.5, EVEN

Currently the best bet on the board. Cam Newton is liable to cover this spread by himself. Touchdown and a Field Goal get the job done. Throw in gameflow without Devontae Freeman. Should be plenty of passes that will stop the clock and give both teams opportunity to score.

Also taking,

1H - Green Bay, EVEN

On the virtue of it being Aaron ####### Rodgers.

 

[lumpy19]

I feel really good about all my bets today, gonna be an awful day

Actually I do hate that I bet Tate o5, i've never won a golden tate bet in my life so that's a loser

 

[ChainsawU]

Last week was the first time Gase and Tannehill worked together since 2016. "It's so different than the last time because that was two years ago," Gase said earlier this week. "We were still in the learning stage trying to figure out how it was going to go and who we were leaning on." After last week the Gase/Tannehill combination is now 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in their L9 games together. I think they're good for 27 points and the straight up win.

Dolphins +150
Dolphins o20 -110

 

[ChainsawU]

Browns 4-44-1 SU since 2015

 

[lumpy19]

Chris conley unders dead

 

[lumpy19]

Mahomes even making Sammy Watkins a viable wr.......GOAT

 

[swirvenirvin]

mybookie eliminated all receptions and passing yards props.. only left the crappy receiving ones.

DUMB

 

[swirvenirvin]

I feel really good about all my bets today, gonna be an awful day

I always feel good going in like everything is a winner, and the only reason there is a loss is because it's unlucky

 

[lumpy19]

Congrats Ten, no way Mariota gets in the game now that they're dominating

 

[Stuart Ullman]

THAT'S WHAT I DO!!!

 

[Stuart Ullman]

1H - Panthers O9.5, EVEN

1H - Green Bay, EVEN

An easy, peasy 2-0 start to the day. I'll pat myself on the back for them both being at EVEN money, too.

I know how you degenerates are. It's all about "what have you done for me lately" and because of that, I am going to go BACK into the laboratory and rattle off some 2H winners for you. I'm going to be targeting a 2H over in a game that's already pretty much out of reach. We're looking for games that will feature prevent defense and garbage time touchdowns. 

 

[Stuart Ullman]

2H - Packers ML, +192

I think this game is going to be a rout. The game is in Green Bay and at worst, I see this ending up being a push. That's just WAY TOO MUCH plus money to pass up betting on Aaron Rodgers to win a 2H. I am a Bears fan and believe me, Aaron Rodgers takes great pleasure is running up the score on the NFC North. If you're a chicken, take 2H - Packers, +3, -110.

 

[Stuart Ullman]

i also like the 2H overs in the browns and bills game. but i went so heavy on the packers, that betting on those games wouldn't really matter...

 

[modogg]

ugh, glutton for punishment. Eagles -4 2nd half. they aren't losing this game by 2 TDs

 

[got_nugs]

more like McCashrey amirite

 

[got_nugs]

ugh, glutton for punishment. Eagles -4 2nd half. they aren't losing this game by 2 TDs

I mean....Fitzpatrick in these turfed streets looking like Montana.  This can't hold up.

 

[ChainsawU]

hey mo who you rooting for in the nightcap

 

[modogg]

hey mo who you rooting for in the nightcap

A huge earthquake to swallow both teams up 

 

[ChainsawU]

Hey @ChainsawU, THIS is that jinx crap.

I'm 'bout to learn you how to jinx today, son.

Browns 4-44-1 SU since 2015

 

[ChainsawU]

A huge earthquake to swallow both teams up

Well I guess if we can't pick a side there's always Ref's NFC East prime time totals system in play

 

[Stuart Ullman]

GO, PACK, GO

 

[modogg]

Well I guess if we can't pick a side there's always Ref's NFC East prime time totals system in play

it is a tough call. i think under should be secure unless Giants go hurry up and quick passes by Eli

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Would be nice if this Mahomes kids could throw a few to Hill

 

[lumpy19]

Hou TD to take the lead and then Mariota steps on the field and the titans fans go nuts!!

 

[lumpy19]

Hou TD to take the lead and then Mariota steps on the field and the titans fans go nuts!!

PHASE 1 COMPLETE

 

[ChainsawU]

Since 2012 Belichick 12-12-3 ATS on grass surface with 19-8 (.704) to the under.

 

[ChainsawU]

Since 2016 Belichick 10-1 SU and 8-1-2 ATS on grass.

 

[ChainsawU]

You ever see the back of a twenty dollar bill on grass? There's some crazy stuff, man. There's a dude in the bushes. Does he have a gun?

 

[Stuart Ullman]

DUMB

 

[Stuart Ullman]

I hope Green Bay loses now.

 

[Dan Lambskin]

Throw it to James Connor

 

[lumpy19]

I have tyrod over 205.5, ouch

BROWNS!!! not even the bills would miss an XP like that

 

[ChainsawU]

Car/Atl O43 1/2

Boom. Rivera artificial surface 79% to the over; next opportunity W11 v Lions

 

[ChainsawU]

Since 2010 Belichick 21-0 SU 36±9 ppg versus AFC South. sdql

Patriots -123
Patriots o23½ -110

 

[ChainsawU]

Pats averaged 18±5 ppg 1H in those L21 games v AFC South.

 

[modogg]

Since 2010 Belichick 21-0 SU 36±9 ppg versus AFC South. sdql

Patriots -123
Patriots o23½ -110

in, let's do this

 

[ChainsawU]

S&O is listing the Saints MONEYLINE as their #1 wager of the day. Pats against the spread is #2.

 

[Billy Bats]

Every kicker should be cut. 

 

[regularguy]

DSI has 3 way lines for NFL games, not sure i've ever seen that, Houston -169 3 way vs -200 for game is a mistake

DSI might know what they are doing?   

 

[comfortably numb]

Bucs ready to trade Jameis?