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*** OFFICIAL *** FFA WAGERING THREAD - Merry Christmas!!! (15 Viewers)

facook said:
Teaser?  Or over?
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over to a 4-game, 3 way parlay, and same 4-game, 2 way parlay.  I hit the other three games, so I'm up ok, but hitting that would have been awesome.

Need NE over 46.5 to hit a 4-team teaser. I bet it 5 days ago when it was 51.5 

I hit the KC over large.   Good day.

 
too many plays - but football...

burkhead u18.5 rec

burkhead u56.5 rr

dorsett o2.5

dorsett o34.5

golladay o4.5

hogan o4

hogan o53.5

johnson u19.5

johnson u2.5 

johnson u58.5 rr

o4 sacks

riddick u32.5

riddick u4

riddick u46.5 rr

stafford o289.5

 
Getzlaf15 said:
over to a 4-game, 3 way parlay, and same 4-game, 2 way parlay.  I hit the other three games, so I'm up ok, but hitting that would have been awesome.

Need NE over 46.5 to hit a 4-team teaser. I bet it 5 days ago when it was 51.5 

I hit the KC over large.   Good day.
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Nice, sorry for that hiccup.  I've had a nice day too.  Some losses, obvs, but KC/over, Indy, Rams, Seattle/under, Baltimore, Skins, and New Orleans/over/Kamara receiving overs were big for me.  

Would you still play that over 55.5 tonight?  I think it's over or pass for me, and probably passing.

 
facook said:
Nice, sorry for that hiccup.  I've had a nice day too.  Some losses, obvs, but KC/over, Indy, Rams, Seattle/under, Baltimore, Skins, and New Orleans/over/Kamara receiving overs were big for me.  

Would you still play that over 55.5 tonight?  I think it's over or pass for me, and probably passing.
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That's too high for me.

I just bet Gronk TD -130 and Gronk 2 TD's +300

 
facook said:
49ers Insider here.  Take the under 8.5, don't make playoffs, and the other teams' team total over every week.  Niners secondary is trash.  Sherman is going to give up 150 yards and 2 tds to Diggs week 1.  Also, take Garapallo tds under if you can find it (5d).  Still can't get the ball in the end zone.
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Diggs prediction was a little hyperbolic.  But a pretty crappy way to nail pretty much every other point in this post. after 3 weeks.

512441435-1  8/29/18 12:09am  Pending  12/30/18 1:00pm  NFL Props Football  28048 J.Garoppolo passing TD's under 23½ -120*

 
Bet you the Pats could've won last week, but didn't want to show Patricia too much of their hand. I bet you they showed more than they wanted to though. Patricia got a glimpse inside the playbook after Pats had to go desperation mode last week

 
yup. Week 3 in the NFL is the new Week 2. Need to let Bender know.... @John Bender got burned on a couple today, Houston at home still has me wondering if that team is dead in the water or what

 
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Broncos / Ravens U23, -115 (L)
F5 -Cardinals / Giants U4, EVEN (W)
1H - Cardinals ML, +160 (W)
Patriots / Lions longest TD under 49.5, -115 (W)

3-1 (75%)

Awesome day. Hit 75% with a +160 and EVEN money hit. ?

 
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regularguy said:
How are you doing so far this season?  I did decent last year on my own for the 1st half of the season or so, but this year, I'm putting in more time and not doing worth a ####. 
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Very good.  1st 2 weeks usually good then a little fallback usually but did good today as well. 

Had to remember can get away with overs in the first 2 weeks cuz the books don't know what's going on around week 3 is when I stop petting too many overs.  Grabbed a bunch at bookmaker today though and did very well there.

Haven't had a free Sunday to sit down and watch the games though  with kids sports stuff

 
Callum Smith +115/+120 

Wrong guy favored here. Groves has some miles on the tank, is smaller than Smith, and is coming off shoulder surgery from the last fight. If he re-injures his shoulder or runs out of steam, Smith walks over him. Even if he doesn't, I think it's about a 116-112 Smith win. No idea what kind of an influence having the fight in Jeddah (I don't know) will have, but should be a decent sweat this coming Friday morning.

Smith by decision (+220) is fine too, but I think Smith just straight up is the safest play.

 
Post to reference.

  • Week 3 teams starting Under-Under were 4-2-0 O/U this season (HOU vs NYG could possibly be counted twice here). The winless start may not be a strong addition to the look. ARI and DAL have now started Under-Under-Under; should see if there is any history for Week 4.
  • Home-Home-Away added 2-1 O/U to the tally. (GB@WAS o45.5 duplicated for purposes of bookkeeping).

    Note: the two plays that trended the same in multiple ways (both HOU and NYG starting Under-Under, GB and WAS fitting into their respective trends) went 2-0.
     

[*]Week 3 Home openers were more appropriately favored this season. They went 2-1 ATS (KC, SEA with the wins) against an expected 1-2. Those two stadiums are notoriously tougher to play in; should pay attention to that mayhap.

[*]JAX not only failed to cover but lost outright to TEN in their first divisional game of the season. Despite a more recent trend to the Over in this scenario, the total never had a chance; no touchdowns were scored. Should look at first divisional game in Week 4 imo.
 

[*]Final tally still out on winless Over-Over starts to the season, but BUF and DET held up their ends of the deal today. 2-0 out of 3 plays with PIT@TB to be determined.

  • For the record, Over-Over starts (regardless of win streak considerations) were historically less likely to go Under than U-U to go O and it seems like that held form today from a quick glance. It is noteworthy that some Over-Over starts conflicted with other angles presented in the original post. (LAC, BAL and GB)
  • Both PIT and TB have started the season Over-Over.

    Congrats PIT@TB over backers.


 
hagmania said:
Post to reference.

  • Week 3 teams starting Under-Under were 4-2-0 O/U this season (HOU vs NYG could possibly be counted twice here). The winless start may not be a strong addition to the look. ARI and DAL have now started Under-Under-Under; should see if there is any history for Week 4.
  • Home-Home-Away added 2-1 O/U to the tally. (GB@WAS o45.5 duplicated for purposes of bookkeeping).

    Note: the two plays that trended the same in multiple ways (both HOU and NYG starting Under-Under, GB and WAS fitting into their respective trends) went 2-0.
     

[*]Week 3 Home openers were more appropriately favored this season. They went 2-1 ATS (KC, SEA with the wins) against an expected 1-2. Those two stadiums are notoriously tougher to play in; should pay attention to that mayhap.

[*]JAX not only failed to cover but lost outright to TEN in their first divisional game of the season. Despite a more recent trend to the Over in this scenario, the total never had a chance; no touchdowns were scored. Should look at first divisional game in Week 4 imo.
 

[*]Final tally still out on winless Over-Over starts to the season, but BUF and DET held up their ends of the deal today. 2-0 out of 3 plays with PIT@TB to be determined. Up

  • For the record, Over-Over starts (regardless of win streak considerations) were historically less likely to go Under than U-U to go O and it seems like that held form today from a quick glance. It is noteworthy that some Over-Over starts conflicted with other angles presented in the original post. (LAC, BAL and GB)
  • Both PIT and TB have started the season Over-Over.

    Congrats PIT@TB over backers.
Click to expand...
TLDR version,

Hagmania's robot plays went 9-6 (60%) and if the trend continues then Steelers / Buccaneers U54.5, -115 is a good bet for tomorrow.

 
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hagmania said:
ARI and DAL have now started Under-Under-Under; should see if there is any history for Week 4.
Click to expand...
Nothing crazy of note (56.8% O/U, history of the data base and 4-3 O/U since 2014.)

hagmania said:
Should look at first divisional game in Week 4 imo.
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Bit more intrigue here. Seems like playing your first divisional game in Week 4 on the road favors you (16-9-1 ATS), while playing your first divisional game in Week 4 at home favors your opponent and the under (11-18-1 ATS, 10-20-0 O/U).

  • SEA @ ARI
  • IND vs HOU and u, NE vs MIA and u
 
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Kosei Tanaka -150

Starts in a couple hours, it's a Monday afternoon fight in Japan for some reason. Tanaka just too dynamic for Sho Kimura, I think he's going to pick him apart and stop him late.

 
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