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**Official Greg Jennings Thread** (2 Viewers)

H.K.

Where do you see Jennings being drafted next year? You keep saying he's going to be overrated, and you could be correct, but where do you feel people are going to draft him? He's certainly not top 5 on most people's lists...I'm guessing he'll be in the 10-15 range. If that's the case he'd have to perform in the mid-late 20's or lower to be considered a bust. I just can't see him falling off that much next year even with his "low" number of targets.

 
H.K, you should have just said this:

Greg Jennings is the 2007 version of Lee Evans 2006. You can't not start him. At the same time you better hope that you don't rely on him. It would not surprise me to see the same numbers next year with 1/2 the TD's.

 
Your logic is sound but your conclusion is incorrect.Improbable, not impossible, is the word that you are looking for.
Semantics. His TD/catch ratio won't be sustained and the only reason he has value is his TD's.
He is 22nd in receiving yards for WRs....and missed the first 2 games with an injury.He is 12th for WRs in yards per game.I think the TDs give him more value for sure...but its not the only reason he has value.
Only 36th in receptions. Targets are way worse than that.
 
Greg Jennings is the 2007 version of Lee Evans 2006. You can't not start him. At the same time you better hope that you don't rely on him. It would not surprise me to see the same numbers next year with 1/2 the TD's.
Lee Evans is clearly the best WR on the team and has suffered from the QB carousel, but I get the boom or bust comparison.Not only will Jennings TD's be substantially less next season, but his YPC will be less, too. He could catch 55 passes for 880 yards (YPC of a healthy 16.0) with 6 TD's next year and still barely even be worthy of WR3 in PPR. He'll easily go in the top 20 WR's off the board, too.
 
Greg Jennings is the 2007 version of Lee Evans 2006. You can't not start him. At the same time you better hope that you don't rely on him. It would not surprise me to see the same numbers next year with 1/2 the TD's.
Lee Evans is clearly the best WR on the team and has suffered from the QB carousel, but I get the boom or bust comparison.Not only will Jennings TD's be substantially less next season, but his YPC will be less, too. He could catch 55 passes for 880 yards (YPC of a healthy 16.0) with 6 TD's next year and still barely even be worthy of WR3 in PPR. He'll easily go in the top 20 WR's off the board, too.
You're an idiot. No matter how many times you are wrong you still send out as many bold predictions. Targets don't score touchdowns.
 
Greg Jennings is the 2007 version of Lee Evans 2006. You can't not start him. At the same time you better hope that you don't rely on him. It would not surprise me to see the same numbers next year with 1/2 the TD's.
Lee Evans is clearly the best WR on the team and has suffered from the QB carousel, but I get the boom or bust comparison.Not only will Jennings TD's be substantially less next season, but his YPC will be less, too. He could catch 55 passes for 880 yards (YPC of a healthy 16.0) with 6 TD's next year and still barely even be worthy of WR3 in PPR. He'll easily go in the top 20 WR's off the board, too.
You're an idiot. No matter how many times you are wrong you still send out as many bold predictions. Targets don't score touchdowns.
WR's don't have receptions without targets.Please share with the board how many targets/receptions/yards/TD's Jennings will have next year and explain why you feel that way. Name calling in lieu of backing up your position is not the best way to hold a discussion. Try adding value to these conversations instead of throwing out personal insults, its better for everyone.
 
Not only will Jennings TD's be substantially less next season, but his YPC will be less, too. He could catch 55 passes for 880 yards (YPC of a healthy 16.0) with 6 TD's next year and still barely even be worthy of WR3 in PPR. He'll easily go in the top 20 WR's off the board, too.
What do you base this on? It is only his second year, are you saying he has peaked? Do you really know anything about him or are you just blowing smoke? Giving stats without any reasoning means nothing. You know all the speculation is meaningless until we know if Favre is returning.

 
Not only will Jennings TD's be substantially less next season, but his YPC will be less, too. He could catch 55 passes for 880 yards (YPC of a healthy 16.0) with 6 TD's next year and still barely even be worthy of WR3 in PPR. He'll easily go in the top 20 WR's off the board, too.
What do you base this on? It is only his second year, are you saying he has peaked? Do you really know anything about him or are you just blowing smoke? Giving stats without any reasoning means nothing. You know all the speculation is meaningless until we know if Favre is returning.
I base it on common sense. In the history of the NFL, how many WR's with 50 or more receptions had a YPC of 17.6 in one season and exceeded their YPC with the same or greater amount of receptions the following year?A lot of you think I am bashing Jennings. I am not. It's just that what he is doing this season is not something to reasonably expect from anyone, let alone for him to do it next year.

 
I base it on common sense. In the history of the NFL, how many WR's with 50 or more receptions had a YPC of 17.6 in one season and exceeded their YPC with the same or greater amount of receptions the following year?A lot of you think I am bashing Jennings. I am not. It's just that what he is doing this season is not something to reasonably expect from anyone, let alone for him to do it next year.
I'm with ya but it's not impossible. If Favre retired, you would be spot on but he's playing until Manning gives up. ;)
 
Your logic is sound but your conclusion is incorrect.Improbable, not impossible, is the word that you are looking for.
Semantics. His TD/catch ratio won't be sustained and the only reason he has value is his TD's.
Every week you say this and every week you are wrong. Even if he doesn't have a TD next week that will not make your predictions this year mean anything. The guy has been a top tier number 2 wideout this year. And he is 1A in GB, whether you want to believe that or not.
 
Your logic is sound but your conclusion is incorrect.Improbable, not impossible, is the word that you are looking for.
Semantics. His TD/catch ratio won't be sustained and the only reason he has value is his TD's.
He is 22nd in receiving yards for WRs....and missed the first 2 games with an injury.He is 12th for WRs in yards per game.I think the TDs give him more value for sure...but its not the only reason he has value.
Only 36th in receptions. Targets are way worse than that.
Sorry...my FF league does not give points for targets. :confused:
 
Your logic is sound but your conclusion is incorrect.Improbable, not impossible, is the word that you are looking for.
Semantics. His TD/catch ratio won't be sustained and the only reason he has value is his TD's.
He is 22nd in receiving yards for WRs....and missed the first 2 games with an injury.He is 12th for WRs in yards per game.I think the TDs give him more value for sure...but its not the only reason he has value.
Only 36th in receptions. Targets are way worse than that.
Sorry...my FF league does not give points for targets. :popcorn:
See post 111WR's don't have receptions without targets.
 
Your logic is sound but your conclusion is incorrect.Improbable, not impossible, is the word that you are looking for.
Semantics. His TD/catch ratio won't be sustained and the only reason he has value is his TD's.
Every week you say this and every week you are wrong. Even if he doesn't have a TD next week that will not make your predictions this year mean anything. The guy has been a top tier number 2 wideout this year. And he is 1A in GB, whether you want to believe that or not.
Do you expect him to continue scoring every fourth time he has a reception next week? or next year? Post your projections for him for next year. It would be interesting to see what other people think.
 
Your logic is sound but your conclusion is incorrect.Improbable, not impossible, is the word that you are looking for.
Semantics. His TD/catch ratio won't be sustained and the only reason he has value is his TD's.
He is 22nd in receiving yards for WRs....and missed the first 2 games with an injury.He is 12th for WRs in yards per game.I think the TDs give him more value for sure...but its not the only reason he has value.
Only 36th in receptions. Targets are way worse than that.
Sorry...my FF league does not give points for targets. :lmao:
See post 111WR's don't have receptions without targets.
The problem is...he does have receptions...and yards...and TDs.You made the claim that without the TDs he had no value...I post where he stands as far as yardage...your response was about his targets being low.Its simple...he is one of Favre's favorite WRs...he is Favre's favorite deep threat and seems to be set in that and will continue to be that.You can keep whining about targets all you want...but as it stands, there is no reason to believe his value will take as dramatic of a drop as you keep claiming.
 
Your logic is sound but your conclusion is incorrect.Improbable, not impossible, is the word that you are looking for.
Semantics. His TD/catch ratio won't be sustained and the only reason he has value is his TD's.
Every week you say this and every week you are wrong. Even if he doesn't have a TD next week that will not make your predictions this year mean anything. The guy has been a top tier number 2 wideout this year. And he is 1A in GB, whether you want to believe that or not.
Do you expect him to continue scoring every fourth time he has a reception next week? or next year? Post your projections for him for next year. It would be interesting to see what other people think.
No, I don't. But I didn't expect Moss to have 20+ Tds, or Brady have close to 50, ADP break the single game mark, either. I agree that he has nowhere to go but down next year unless he has more targets, but you CONTINUE to say he is not the 1A or solid number 2 on the Packers, which is ridiculous.
 
Do you expect him to continue scoring every fourth time he has a reception next week?
How many straight weeks do you have to post this and continue to come up with egg on your face?The funniest part will be when he finally doesn't score a touchdown, you will come back as say "see I was right all along but please ignore the fact that he missed two weeks of the year and is now a top 7 WR"
 
I don't disagree with your statistical assertions H.K.

If everything remains constant, the current ratio is unsustainable.

I'm not sure, however, what you are saying about Jennings talent. Due you believe that he is maxed out and will not earn a bigger share of the targets moving forward? Or do you believe that the system and talent of the GB WR corp will dictate that the targets continue to be spread throughout? Or do you simply not believe he is a talented WR and his numbers are predicated exclusively on luck?

Personally, I'm not sure what a 2nd year WR would have to do that Jennings has not done to become more involved in a teams future plans. The growth curve would certainly indicate a potential #1 WR skillset that currently competes with other skilled receivers for targets.

Will his TD ratio diminish? Certainly. But, I would have to anticipate that his targets and hence receptions and yardage will increase. Does that increase or decrease his future value? I don't know.

I'm guessing he will be overdrafted due to this year's TD's, but he demonstrates enough upside that it may not be an extreme margin by which he is overdrafted. He certainly has the opportunity and skills to become a top 15 WR, even in PPR leagues, again IMO.

 
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I agree that he has nowhere to go but down next year unless he has more targets, but you CONTINUE to say he is not the 1A or solid number 2 on the Packers, which is ridiculous.
Why is it ridiculous if you agree that he has nowhere to go but down? If Jennings were the clear cut 1A option or solid # 2 he would have more targets. He's one of many options with guys like Driver, Jones, Robinson and Lee. My point is that there are not enough opportunites for him to keep up his pace. Seems like you agree with me.
 
I agree that he has nowhere to go but down next year unless he has more targets, but you CONTINUE to say he is not the 1A or solid number 2 on the Packers, which is ridiculous.
Why is it ridiculous if you agree that he has nowhere to go but down? If Jennings were the clear cut 1A option or solid # 2 he would have more targets. He's one of many options with guys like Driver, Jones, Robinson and Lee. My point is that there are not enough opportunites for him to keep up his pace. Seems like you agree with me.
No, I don't, not about him being number two on the team. He is clearly above everyone on that team aside from Driver. Driver is more polished and has developed a great rapore with Favre over the years; I would also say Driver runs better routes. But I would only say that his TDs are likely to go down, not his targets, or his yardage numbers. Remember, he is only in his second year. I think his TDs will decrease, but not his value to the team...as a second wideout.
 
I don't disagree with your statistical assertions H.K.If everything remains constant, the current ratio is unsustainable.I'm not sure, however, what you are saying about Jennings talent. Due you believe that he is maxed out and will not earn a bigger share of the targets moving forward? Or do you believe that the system and talent of the GB WR corp will dictate that the targets continue to be spread throughout? Or do you simply not believe he is a talented WR and his numbers are predicated exclusively on luck?Personally, I'm not sure what a 2nd year WR would have to do that Jennings has not done to become more involved in a teams future plans.Will his TD ratio diminish? Certainly. But, I would have to anticipate that his targets and hence receptions and yardage will increase. Does that increase or decrease his future value? I don't know.I'm guessing he will be overdrafted due to this year's TD's, but he demonstrates enough upside that it may not be an extreme margin by which he is overdrafted. He certainly has the opportunity and situation to become a top 15 WR, even in PPR leagues, again IMO.
Cool. Thanks for a well thought out post. As far as his talent, I asked several times if he was so good, then why don't they throw it to him more....and I think people misinterpreted what I was getting at by asking that question.
 
I agree that he has nowhere to go but down next year unless he has more targets, but you CONTINUE to say he is not the 1A or solid number 2 on the Packers, which is ridiculous.
Why is it ridiculous if you agree that he has nowhere to go but down? If Jennings were the clear cut 1A option or solid # 2 he would have more targets. He's one of many options with guys like Driver, Jones, Robinson and Lee. My point is that there are not enough opportunites for him to keep up his pace. Seems like you agree with me.
No, I don't, not about him being number two on the team. He is clearly above everyone on that team aside from Driver. Driver is more polished and has developed a great rapore with Favre over the years; I would also say Driver runs better routes. But I would only say that his TDs are likely to go down, not his targets, or his yardage numbers. Remember, he is only in his second year. I think his TDs will decrease, but not his value to the team...as a second wideout.
OK, but won't Jones and Robinson benefit from their time in Green Bay this season to warrant an expected increase in workload, too?
 
H.K. said:
MCguidance said:
H.K. said:
I agree that he has nowhere to go but down next year unless he has more targets, but you CONTINUE to say he is not the 1A or solid number 2 on the Packers, which is ridiculous.
Why is it ridiculous if you agree that he has nowhere to go but down? If Jennings were the clear cut 1A option or solid # 2 he would have more targets. He's one of many options with guys like Driver, Jones, Robinson and Lee. My point is that there are not enough opportunites for him to keep up his pace. Seems like you agree with me.
No, I don't, not about him being number two on the team. He is clearly above everyone on that team aside from Driver. Driver is more polished and has developed a great rapore with Favre over the years; I would also say Driver runs better routes. But I would only say that his TDs are likely to go down, not his targets, or his yardage numbers. Remember, he is only in his second year. I think his TDs will decrease, but not his value to the team...as a second wideout.
OK, but won't Jones and Robinson benefit from their time in Green Bay this season to warrant an expected increase in workload, too?
I won't argue with you there. But they will vie for the 3rd wideout role, not the second. I still think Jennings is an elite deep threat, something that is hard to teach.
 
It's not quite the same level of fantasy jackpot, but I see situational similarities in Driver/Jennings vs. Harrison/Wayne of 2-3 years ago.

A couple of seasons of deep threat/1B talk with Jennings as he overtakes the true #1 WR role in GB as Driver's time comes to a close.

I don't think Robinson/Jones are a threat to Jennings targets nearly as much as Favre's retirement and the GB spread the wealth system are.

Nonetheless, I see Jennings replicating Driver's typical seasons from years past potentially as early as next season.

 
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HK, I could buy your arguments if we were sitting in the offseason talking about next year. But it's time to give up on this "next week he'll let you down" stuff. At a position where let-down games are more common than any, Jennings has been almost ridiculously consistent this year. He's had a few games where he went for under 100yds with no scores, but all WRs do, and just about all of them have done it more often this year than Jennings has (including Randy Moss). I just hope that if Jennings does have a down week in the next two weeks you don't come on here and make a fool of yourself by trying to say "I told you so" after having it backfire in your face time and time again. Everyone has been let down by all the sure-fire studs out there, many of them more often than Jennings this year.

For years I tried to make the same "luck" argument about Shaun Alexander. How the Seattle WRs developed such a skill for falling out of bounds at the one yard line is beyond me, but it seems Seattle ended up with more 1st and goals from the 1 than every other team in the NFL combined, something I didn't think could possibly continue. Words are words. We all have theories that on paper sound undeniable. Sometimes, if something unlikely just keeps happening over and over and over again then maybe it's time to move on past the words because performance is what really matters.

 
FreeBaGeL said:
Everyone has been let down by all the sure-fire studs out there, many of them more often than Jennings this year.
Exactly what I am talking about, now he is getting classified as a "sure-fire stud". :doh:Sure fire studs are going to get more than 6-7 targets a week. He is not even the focal point of the GB passing game.....far from it.
 
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FreeBaGeL said:
Everyone has been let down by all the sure-fire studs out there, many of them more often than Jennings this year.
Exactly what I am talking about, now he is getting classified as a "sure-fire stud". :lol:Sure fire studs are going to get more than 6-7 targets a week. He is not even the focal point of the GB passing game.....far from it.
Yet he consistently puts up more points than the rest of the GB passing attack.
 
Everyone has been let down by all the sure-fire studs out there, many of them more often than Jennings this year.
Exactly what I am talking about, now he is getting classified as a "sure-fire stud". :thumbup:Sure fire studs are going to get more than 6-7 targets a week. He is not even the focal point of the GB passing game.....far from it.
Yet he consistently puts up more points than the rest of the GB passing attack.
...and Driver made the Pro Bowl, not him.
 
Everyone has been let down by all the sure-fire studs out there, many of them more often than Jennings this year.
Exactly what I am talking about, now he is getting classified as a "sure-fire stud". :)Sure fire studs are going to get more than 6-7 targets a week. He is not even the focal point of the GB passing game.....far from it.
Yet he consistently puts up more points than the rest of the GB passing attack.
...and Driver made the Pro Bowl, not him.
My league does not award points for PB appearances.
 
I figued H.K. out. He has Jennings. He has ridden him to the championship game via superstitious reverse psychology of 'he won't score again this week' and is hoping for the Fluke-60 TD pass....just like I am.

I'm on to ya. :)

 
We don't get points for targets in my league. It's very old school, we only get points for TDs, yards(beginning at 30), and catches if the WR catches 10 passes(5 points). Jennings has been awesome this year and if Favre comes back in '08 I'll target Jennings if he does not get drafted too high.

 
We don't get points for targets in my league. It's very old school, we only get points for TDs, yards(beginning at 30), and catches if the WR catches 10 passes(5 points). Jennings has been awesome this year and if Favre comes back in '08 I'll target Jennings if he does not get drafted too high.
I'll be back!!!! :goodposting:
 
Everyone has been let down by all the sure-fire studs out there, many of them more often than Jennings this year.
Exactly what I am talking about, now he is getting classified as a "sure-fire stud". :)Sure fire studs are going to get more than 6-7 targets a week. He is not even the focal point of the GB passing game.....far from it.
Yet he consistently puts up more points than the rest of the GB passing attack.
...and Driver made the Pro Bowl, not him.
And Driver probably should not have...and I have heard he said that if Jennings was the 1st alternate, Driver would drop out as he feels Greg deserves it.But if you are hanging your hat on who made the pro bowl... :thumbup:
 
Everyone has been let down by all the sure-fire studs out there, many of them more often than Jennings this year.
Exactly what I am talking about, now he is getting classified as a "sure-fire stud". ;)Sure fire studs are going to get more than 6-7 targets a week. He is not even the focal point of the GB passing game.....far from it.
Yet he consistently puts up more points than the rest of the GB passing attack.
...and Driver made the Pro Bowl, not him.
And Driver probably should not have...and I have heard he said that if Jennings was the 1st alternate, Driver would drop out as he feels Greg deserves it.But if you are hanging your hat on who made the pro bowl... :lmao:
:thumbup: 1) How does a player make the pro bowl? If Jennings were such a "stud", he'd be going.2) Driver's comments were nothing more than him being a classy, gracious, and humble, teammate. 3) Jennings will disappear this week, during everyon'es Super Bowl, and kill anyone who plays him. Guaranteed.
 
The Pro-Bowl is probably the worst measuring stick of a players performance I can think of.

Many of the best players in the league this season didn't make it. Many reputation only players did. Not necessarily including Jennings amongst them, but lack of Pro-Bowl inclusion is not a serious argument against Jennings current or future value.

Jennings may very well disappear this weekend, but it won't be in any way related to his lack of inclusion in the Pro-Bowl.

On a side note, I'm confident that Driver won't make the All-Pro team.

 
Everyone has been let down by all the sure-fire studs out there, many of them more often than Jennings this year.
Exactly what I am talking about, now he is getting classified as a "sure-fire stud". :unsure:Sure fire studs are going to get more than 6-7 targets a week. He is not even the focal point of the GB passing game.....far from it.
Yet he consistently puts up more points than the rest of the GB passing attack.
...and Driver made the Pro Bowl, not him.
And Driver probably should not have...and I have heard he said that if Jennings was the 1st alternate, Driver would drop out as he feels Greg deserves it.But if you are hanging your hat on who made the pro bowl... :goodposting:
:shrug: 1) How does a player make the pro bowl? If Jennings were such a "stud", he'd be going.2) Driver's comments were nothing more than him being a classy, gracious, and humble, teammate. 3) Jennings will disappear this week, during everyon'es Super Bowl, and kill anyone who plays him. Guaranteed.
1. What does the probowl have to do with my fantasy team? Jennings has killed Driver in fantasy points this year...and was drafted much later.2. True...but he is right on. THough, Colston should be in before either of them.3. You can keep claiming it...maybe someday he will have a bad game and you will thump your chest then. Until then, you look like a whiny fool week in and week out. I guess I should bench him because HK claims he will disappear this week. :wall: He might...the Bears might key in on him and shut down the long gains. Then again, he still breaks alot of them that are not deep passes in the first place (see the San Diego game).
 
Why is H.K. in such denial over Jennings? Anyone?
It's nothing new. Remember the Chester Taylor threads last year? HK was so relentless in his bashing of Taylor starting in the pre-season that it turned into a running joke for the rest of the year. This thread contains a lot of similarities.http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...ster&st=100

In an early post he argues that CT will have little fantasy value because he couldn't win the starting job in Balt over Jamal Lewis and would be beat out by Mewelde Moore and Fason (is that guy still in the league). Over the course of the year, as Taylor racked up a tremendous number of points, he refused to back down until he finally appeared to switch around and become Taylor's greatest cheerleader in a funny, possibly sarcastic way. In any event, you have to give the guy credit. He sparks long-interesting debates, even if he is wrong.

 
Do you expect him to continue scoring every fourth time he has a reception next week?
How many straight weeks do you have to post this and continue to come up with egg on your face?The funniest part will be when he finally doesn't score a touchdown, you will come back as say "see I was right all along but please ignore the fact that he missed two weeks of the year and is now a top 7 WR"
:lmao:
 
Why is H.K. in such denial over Jennings? Anyone?
I would think my previous posts have already covered the topic. It's not denial. It's evaluation of his current and future prospects.In summary:1) Targets equal opportunity. He does not get enough looks to be dependable on a weekly basis.2) His TD/Rec ratio is unsustainable, as is his YPC.3) Too many other options in GB for him to see any increase in targets to offset points #1 & 24) Favre is the GOAT, and Jennings is yet one other guy he is making look good.Finally and most important, Jennings will do nothing this week and all of his owners will lose. Guaranteed.
 
Why is H.K. in such denial over Jennings? Anyone?
I would think my previous posts have already covered the topic. It's not denial. It's evaluation of his current and future prospects.In summary:1) Targets equal opportunity. He does not get enough looks to be dependable on a weekly basis.2) His TD/Rec ratio is unsustainable, as is his YPC.3) Too many other options in GB for him to see any increase in targets to offset points #1 & 24) Favre is the GOAT, and Jennings is yet one other guy he is making look good.Finally and most important, Jennings will do nothing this week and all of his owners will lose. Guaranteed.
1) Yet he has been very dependable on a weekly basis this year.2) I don't think many are really disputing that. But it stands to reason a talented WR that is that young may earn more targets in the future.3) Not necessarily...Driver is getting older and may lose out on some the more Favre grows and trusts Jennings...and Rodgers seems to have a good rapport with Jennings as well. Robinson may or may not be around...but he is nothing more than a #4 or #5 guy. Jones is the X factor in how it might affect him. But its clear he is the deep ball threat for that team.4) I disagree completely. Did Favre make Jennings look good as he ran past Bly? Did he make Jennings look good as he streaked past all of the Charger's defenders? Favre and the coaches have praised him and his talent over and over again. Have you heard Favre say that about alot of WRs?Finally...you have claimed this how many times the past few weeks? You just think you can keep saying it and one day it might come true.
 
3) Not necessarily...Driver is getting older and may lose out on some the more Favre grows and trusts Jennings...But its clear he is the deep ball threat for that team.

This is part of the problem. It's harder to complete the deep ball than the shorter or intermediate routes. Low probability. That has been Jennings staple, it's going to be his downfall.

4) I disagree completely. Did Favre make Jennings look good as he ran past Bly? Yes. Few if any, QB's can make that throw.

Did he make Jennings look good as he streaked past all of the Charger's defenders?

"streaked past"? The Chargers blew the coverage. Favre is great so he saw it immediately.

Favre and the coaches have praised him and his talent over and over again. Have you heard Favre say that about alot of WRs?

As long as Favre has played, yes, he has siad that about plenty of WR's.

Finally...you have claimed this how many times the past few weeks? You just think you can keep saying it and one day it might come true.

This week I am guaranteeing it. No other outcome is possible.
 
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