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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (11 Viewers)

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GreenNGold said:
Either Sanders or Trump is going to schlong Hilary, the only question is which one?  I really wish Biden had run, or that the democrats would not have pressured every other viable candidate not to run instead of trying to force-feed the presidency to Hilary.  They should have made her earn the nomination.  The only reason Bernie might not win is because the Democrats refused to make this an open primary from the start, and it looks like they will pay dearly for that choice. 
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But...  It's her turn.  

 
Wait, I thought Tim, Squis and all the pundits said Hillary won the Flint debate?  

Not sure if it has been pointed out as I skipped some pages but it was Hillary who insisted on an additional debate in Flint as she sought to use the poor black kids and their dirty water to garner votes.  Hard to think the debate didn't swing things Bernie's way.

 
Hillary Clinton visits a gifted primary school where she first gives a talk and then takes some questions from students.

One little boy puts up his hand. Hillary asks him what his name is. "Kenneth." "And what is your question, Kenneth?"

"I have three questions: First - whatever happened in Benghazi? Second - why would you run for President after your husband shamed the office? And, Third -whatever happened to the missing 6 billion dollars while you were Secretary of State?"

Just then the bell rings for recess. Hillary Clinton informs the kiddies that they will continue after recess.

When they resume Hillary says, "Okay where were we? Oh, that's right, question time. Who has a question?" A different boy- Little Johnny, puts his hand up; Hillary points to him and asks him what his name is. " Little Johnny."

"And what is your question, Little Johnny?"

"I have five questions: First - whatever happened in Benghazi ? Second - why would you run for President after your husband shamed the office? Third- whatever happened to the missing 6 billion dollars while you were Secretary of State?" Fourth - why did the recess bell go off 20 minutes early? And, Fifth - where's Kenneth? "

 
Baloney Sandwich said:
Wait, I thought Tim, Squis and all the pundits said Hillary won the Flint debate?  

Not sure if it has been pointed out as I skipped some pages but it was Hillary who insisted on an additional debate in Flint as she sought to use the poor black kids and their dirty water to garner votes.  Hard to think the debate didn't swing things Bernie's way.
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To be fair, some of them agreed that Sanders won the debate but then they continued with "but it won't matter".

 
Early numbers have Clinton in the +20 range from delegates for last night's contests. Sanders barely being viable in MS helped the cause tremendously. 

 
Trey said:
Early numbers have Clinton in the +20 range from delegates for last night's contests. Sanders barely being viable in MS helped the cause tremendously. 
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....and that's the end of the deep south.  With 34 States/districts to go.

 
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chet said:
Hillary Clinton visits a gifted primary school where she first gives a talk and then takes some questions from students.

One little boy puts up his hand. Hillary asks him what his name is. "Kenneth." "And what is your question, Kenneth?"

"I have three questions: First - whatever happened in Benghazi? Second - why would you run for President after your husband shamed the office? And, Third -whatever happened to the missing 6 billion dollars while you were Secretary of State?"

Just then the bell rings for recess. Hillary Clinton informs the kiddies that they will continue after recess.

When they resume Hillary says, "Okay where were we? Oh, that's right, question time. Who has a question?" A different boy- Little Johnny, puts his hand up; Hillary points to him and asks him what his name is. " Little Johnny."

"And what is your question, Little Johnny?"

"I have five questions: First - whatever happened in Benghazi ? Second - why would you run for President after your husband shamed the office? Third- whatever happened to the missing 6 billion dollars while you were Secretary of State?" Fourth - why did the recess bell go off 20 minutes early? And, Fifth - where's Kenneth? "
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'That Kenneth Starr's little boy?

 
Rich Conway said:
timschochet said:
With regard to Marc Rich, at the time I was disturbed by the pardon and I believed it to be a sign of corruption- not by Hillary Clinton but by Bill. However, Bill wrote an op-ed defending it, and I remember reading that and thinking: well, if the stuff he is saying here is true, then the pardon was justified. But that was 15 years ago and I don't remember what those reasons were. 

As for the other pardons, I'm sorry I have even less information about them. 
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I'm having trouble reconciling your admission that you don't know anything about the pardon "scandal" with your accusation that people like me and IvanK have bought into false narratives about the Cintons' ethical shortcomings.  How do you come to the conclusion that it's a false narrative if you don't know anything about it?  Or are we back to "if she wasn't charged, then she didn't do anything wrong"?  And if so, why is it so hard for you to grasp that other people have a much different standard for judging ethics?
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*bump*

 
Henry Ford said:
....and that's the end of the deep south.  With 34 States/districts to go.
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Yeah, but that may be over-simplifying things. Here's the Cook Report analysis I posted a while back that sets out mile markers for Sanders to get 50% of the delegates (set aside super-delegates for now; if he gets >50% of delegates things could change).  Sanders is well behind pace even after doing better than many had expected over the last week or so.  In fact I think Michigan was the only state where Sanders out-performed those delegate targets. 

The targets have him winning by 23 at this juncture instead of trailing by about 200, so if he's gonna hit 50% he needs to find about 225 delegates above and beyond those numbers.  I'm just not sure you can find them in the states that are left; the Cook Report numbers already give him basically a 50/50 split in Ohio and a dominant margin in the NW.  Maybe California?  I have no idea whatsoever what's going on out there.  Maybe that plus smaller pickups in Indiana (which seems like it would be Sanders-friendly) and maybe big wins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, well beyond the numbers that already assume he wins there.

 
TobiasFunke said:
Yeah, but that may be over-simplifying things. Here's the Cook Report analysis I posted a while back that sets out mile markers for Sanders to get 50% of the delegates (set aside super-delegates for now; if he gets >50% of delegates things could change).  Sanders is well behind pace even after doing better than many had expected over the last week or so.  In fact I think Michigan was the only state where Sanders out-performed those delegate targets. 

The targets have him winning by 23 at this juncture instead of trailing by about 200, so if he's gonna hit 50% he needs to find about 225 delegates above and beyond those numbers.  I'm just not sure you can find them in the states that are left; the Cook Report numbers already give him basically a 50/50 split in Ohio and a dominant margin in the NW.  Maybe California?  I have no idea whatsoever what's going on out there.  Maybe that plus smaller pickups in Indiana (which seems like it would be Sanders-friendly) and maybe big wins in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, well beyond the numbers that already assume he wins there.
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There's no question he has to continue to gain momentum.  But he's still viable.  Which means truly progressive politics are viable.  And that's not going to go away. 

 
Updated odds of becoming President:

Clinton    62.7%
Trump    21.4%
Sanders    6.4%
Cruz    4.6%
Kasich    3.1%
Rubio    1.9%
    
Dem    69.1%
Rep    30.9%


Net result of last night is a ~1% decline for Hillary, +2% for Sanders with no real changes on Rep side.  Dems now favored 69/31.

 
Is Sanders going to win any of the large states remaining (Illinois, NY, NJ, California)? Doesn't he have to win 2 or 3 of these to have any hope? He can continue chugging along at the current rate, but what's the end game here?

Also, these super delegates have to go. I'm not sure if they ultimately carry as much weight as they appear to do currently, but

 
cubd8 said:
Is Sanders going to win any of the large states remaining (Illinois, NY, NJ, California)? Doesn't he have to win 2 or 3 of these to have any hope? He can continue chugging along at the current rate, but what's the end game here?

Also, these super delegates have to go. I'm not sure if they ultimately carry as much weight as they appear to do currently, but
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Last I saw he was polling double digits behind in Illinois and Ohio, so he should win those two.

 
cubd8 said:
Is Sanders going to win any of the large states remaining (Illinois, NY, NJ, California)? Doesn't he have to win 2 or 3 of these to have any hope? He can continue chugging along at the current rate, but what's the end game here?

Also, these super delegates have to go. I'm not sure if they ultimately carry as much weight as they appear to do currently, but
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He has to start winning every state by about 10% to have a chance.  Winning every state by 51-49 is not going to cut it.  It is all about delegates, not how many states you win.

 
cubd8 said:
Is Sanders going to win any of the large states remaining (Illinois, NY, NJ, California)? Doesn't he have to win 2 or 3 of these to have any hope? He can continue chugging along at the current rate, but what's the end game here?

Also, these super delegates have to go. I'm not sure if they ultimately carry as much weight as they appear to do currently, but
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Winning states doesn't really matter in the proportional delegate system, it's all about the margins.  He could basically cancel out a narrow loss in California with a 30 point win in a place like Washington.

 
jon_mx said:
He has to start winning every state by about 10% to have a chance.  Winning every state by 51-49 is not going to cut it.  It is all about delegates, not how many states you win.
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There are still 34 voting districts left, I believe.  Some are big States.  If he wins those by a solid margin, the pledged delegate count will come around.

Then it's about the superdelegates.

 
I think some people are missing the bigger picture here - its not whether Sanders can win the nomination - its whether Sanders should win the nomination.

The Dems have been all in on Clinton since about 2013, and that has clouded their judgment.  Clinton remains the favorite among the Dem establishment types, and even rank and file Dems.  But, neither party can win an election with just the base - Sanders is crushing her among Independents in every state.  And, to compound that issue - Trump scores very well among Independents.  Clinton has no chance at winning Independents in a general election - as a group - they don't like her.  Nothing is going to change that dynamic in 8 months.

The next problem Clinton faces - is a fractured Dem base.  She cannot carry a Obama coalition in November.  She loses young voters, and she loses first-time voters.  She essentially has minority voters in the south - where she can't win - and older women.  That is not enough to carry swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, where Trump will taking his working-class coalition and win handily.  

Maybe the biggest problem the Dems, Bernie and Clinton, face is an enthusiasm gap - the GOP is consistently out-drawing the Dems in the primary season - that does not bode well for a general election.  Even more so for Clinton who is not getting many of the new voters.  At least Sanders can point to the fact that he is bringing in fresh faces to the party - if he goes away, many of those voters will slink back into the shadows.

 
Rich Conway said:
*bump*
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Sorry Rich, I was going to respond then got sidetracked. 

Hey Im sorry I wasn't thinking about the pardons when I wrote my line about false narratives. I was thinking about Whitewater, Travelgate, Vince Foster, FBI files, etc. etc. all the stuff that Hillary has been accused of over the years and turns out she did nothing wrong. These have all worked to create an image of her as a dishonest and corrupt person. That's an image I'm not buying and you are. 

 
Henry Ford said:
There are still 34 voting districts left, I believe.  Some are big States.  If he wins those by a solid margin, the pledged delegate count will come around.

Then it's about the superdelegates.
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I was not including Super delegates in my estimate.  Current the delegate count for won delegates is:

Clinton:  745

Sanders:  540

There are 4051 delegates up for grabs in the Primaries (again excluding the Super Delegates), so 1285 have already been decided leaving 2766 still up for grabs.  To win a majority of the total, Sanders needs to win 1486 of those.....or about 54%.  So if Sanders wins each state by 54-46, he will win the majority of the non-super delegates.  So he needs to average an 8-point victory in each state.  The 10 percent number was my rough estimate without going through the latest results.

 
Sinn Fein said:
I think some people are missing the bigger picture here - its not whether Sanders can win the nomination - its whether Sanders should win the nomination.

The Dems have been all in on Clinton since about 2013, and that has clouded their judgment.  Clinton remains the favorite among the Dem establishment types, and even rank and file Dems.  But, neither party can win an election with just the base - Sanders is crushing her among Independents in every state.  And, to compound that issue - Trump scores very well among Independents.  Clinton has no chance at winning Independents in a general election - as a group - they don't like her.  Nothing is going to change that dynamic in 8 months.

The next problem Clinton faces - is a fractured Dem base.  She cannot carry a Obama coalition in November.  She loses young voters, and she loses first-time voters.  She essentially has minority voters in the south - where she can't win - and older women.  That is not enough to carry swing states like Ohio and Pennsylvania, where Trump will taking his working-class coalition and win handily.  

Maybe the biggest problem the Dems, Bernie and Clinton, face is an enthusiasm gap - the GOP is consistently out-drawing the Dems in the primary season - that does not bode well for a general election.  Even more so for Clinton who is not getting many of the new voters.  At least Sanders can point to the fact that he is bringing in fresh faces to the party - if he goes away, many of those voters will slink back into the shadows.
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I couldn't disagree more with this, and it flies in the face of nearly every analysis I have read in about the general election. 

Hillary's coalition in November will be similar to Obama's but probably a little bigger because of the Latino vote. If it's Trump, a conservative estimate would be 80% of all Latino voters will go for Hillary. In addition while she is losing the youth and new voters to Bernie, she won't lose them to Trump. She is also going to dominate among women. 

Romney won white men against Obama by over 20 points. For Hillary to lose the election, this margin would have to significantly increase while the margin of Latinos stays the same. It ain't gonna happen. There's a reason why the oddsmakers favor Hillary so strongly. 

 
timschochet said:
I couldn't disagree more with this, and it flies in the face of nearly every analysis I have read in about the general election. 

Hillary's coalition in November will be similar to Obama's but probably a little bigger because of the Latino vote. If it's Trump, a conservative estimate would be 80% of all Latino voters will go for Hillary. In addition while she is losing the youth and new voters to Bernie, she won't lose them to Trump. She is also going to dominate among women. 

Romney won white men against Obama by over 20 points. For Hillary to lose the election, this margin would have to significantly increase while the margin of Latinos stays the same. It ain't gonna happen. There's a reason why the oddsmakers favor Hillary so strongly. 
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Don't kid yourself.  Millennials are not beholden by identity politics - they are not voting Bernie because they are liberal/progressive - they are voting Bernie because they like him, and they like his message about changing the corruption in politics.

Trump will get those voters before Clinton.

I think the other thing that people are overlooking - specifically when it comes to Trump - is that just like Clinton will pivot toward the center in a general election - so will Trump.

For better, or worse, Trump's message will resonate with the majority of the public.  Clinton will drone on and on about policy, and Trump will say, "But, I have a bigger penis" and nobody will listen to Clinton on policy except policy wonks, and the rest of the voters will want the candidate with the bigger penis.

 
timschochet said:
I couldn't disagree more with this, and it flies in the face of nearly every analysis I have read in about the general election. 

Hillary's coalition in November will be similar to Obama's but probably a little bigger because of the Latino vote. If it's Trump, a conservative estimate would be 80% of all Latino voters will go for Hillary. In addition while she is losing the youth and new voters to Bernie, she won't lose them to Trump. She is also going to dominate among women. 

Romney won white men against Obama by over 20 points. For Hillary to lose the election, this margin would have to significantly increase while the margin of Latinos stays the same. It ain't gonna happen. There's a reason why the oddsmakers favor Hillary so strongly. 
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There was serious flaw and doubt about what you have there but you can scratch out the prior common wisdom. Trump rewrites everything.

 
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timschochet said:
Sorry Rich, I was going to respond then got sidetracked. 

Hey Im sorry I wasn't thinking about the pardons when I wrote my line about false narratives. I was thinking about Whitewater, Travelgate, Vince Foster, FBI files, etc. etc. all the stuff that Hillary has been accused of over the years and turns out she did nothing wrong. These have all worked to create an image of her as a dishonest and corrupt person. That's an image I'm not buying and you are. 
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_travel_office_controversy

How can anyone read this and come away thinking Hillary did nothing wrong or fail to understand it is things like this that cause people to not trust or like her.

 
Regarding the debate Sunday night, I am one of the few here that thought Hillary won that. I still do. IMO she was much better. A slight majority of the voters of Michigan disagreed with me. Well, they're wrong. 

 
Sinn Fein said:
Don't kid yourself.  Millennials are not beholden by identity politics - they are not voting Bernie because they are liberal/progressive - they are voting Bernie because they like him, and they like his message about changing the corruption in politics.

Trump will get those voters before Clinton.

I think the other thing that people are overlooking - specifically when it comes to Trump - is that just like Clinton will pivot toward the center in a general election - so will Trump.

For better, or worse, Trump's message will resonate with the majority of the public.  Clinton will drone on and on about policy, and Trump will say, "But, I have a bigger penis" and nobody will listen to Clinton on policy except policy wonks, and the rest of the voters will want the candidate with the bigger penis.
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http://youtu.be/uG5kSgJtyQg

 
Phase of the Game said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_travel_office_controversy

How can anyone read this and come away thinking Hillary did nothing wrong or fail to understand it is things like this that cause people to not trust or like her.
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Tim's jump to she did nothing wrong on all of those are a huge leap of faith.  There has never been an explanation of why Craig Livingstone collected over 900 FBI files of political opponents of the Clintons.  Yes, it was wrong that all the career travel office employees were fired so a bunch of cronies could be put in place giving millions of dollars to the friends of bill and hill.  There was a LOT that was wrong with what the Clintons did.  There was just not a winnable criminal case which could be brought against them.  But that is a far ways from saying they did nothing wrong. 

 
So as I look at the delegate map one thing is clear....

Without the black vote, Hillary would be losing in a landslide.

 
timschochet said:
Regarding the debate Sunday night, I am one of the few here that thought Hillary won that. I still do. IMO she was much better. A slight majority of the voters of Michigan disagreed with me. Well, they're wrong. 
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I love the Tim "I am right and everybody else is crazy" shtick.   Good times.

 
timschochet said:
Sorry Rich, I was going to respond then got sidetracked. 

Hey Im sorry I wasn't thinking about the pardons when I wrote my line about false narratives. I was thinking about Whitewater, Travelgate, Vince Foster, FBI files, etc. etc. all the stuff that Hillary has been accused of over the years and turns out she did nothing wrong. These have all worked to create an image of her as a dishonest and corrupt person. That's an image I'm not buying and you are. 
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When I read about those investigations I see - failed bank, environmental disaster, ruined career, suicide, destruction of records, people harmed. Now we may say she did or did not have criminal wrongdoing but Hillary has been personally involved in some terrible tragedies leaving a wake of harm to individuals.

 
TripItUp said:
So as I look at the delegate map one thing is clear....

Without the black vote, Hillary would be losing in a landslide.
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We should do this with every candidate!

Without the under 30 vote, Bernie would be losing in a landslide

Without the bigot vote, Trump would be losing in a landslide

Without the homophobic vote, Cruz would be losing in a landslide

Without the sane Republican vote, Kasich would be losing in a landslide

Without the fictional vote, Rubio would be losing in a landslide

 
The Clinton haters are out in force this morning I see. We'll she had a bad night, so I guess that's all right. Welcome back to the thread; enjoy your stay.  Most of you will disappear again after she wins Florida. 

 
TobiasFunke said:
We should do this with every candidate!

Without the under 30 vote, Bernie would be losing in a landslide

Without the bigot vote, Trump would be losing in a landslide

Without the homophobic vote, Cruz would be losing in a landslide

Without the sane Republican vote, Kasich would be losing in a landslide

Without the fictional vote, Rubio would be losing in a landslide
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Or without the 60 yard TD run, AP is just averaging 2.9 vs the Bears.

Sounds odd to say but the "white" vote could have been one of Hillary's weaknesses, and Trump considers it a strength, but I think Hillary will be going hard right/center for the white GOP/GOP-leaning vote as soon as she cinches the nomination. Trump is an amateur and is learning the cost of alienating whole voting demos as he goes. Hillary and her pros will step in and scoop that up.

 
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jon_mx said:
I was not including Super delegates in my estimate.  Current the delegate count for won delegates is:

Clinton:  745

Sanders:  540

There are 4051 delegates up for grabs in the Primaries (again excluding the Super Delegates), so 1285 have already been decided leaving 2766 still up for grabs.  To win a majority of the total, Sanders needs to win 1486 of those.....or about 54%.  So if Sanders wins each state by 54-46, he will win the majority of the non-super delegates.  So he needs to average an 8-point victory in each state.  The 10 percent number was my rough estimate without going through the latest results.
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Yeah, I wasn't arguing with you.  I was expressing hope.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Or without the 60 yard TD run, AP is just averaging 2.9 vs the Bears.

Sounds odd to say but the "white" vote could have been one of Hillary's weaknesses, and Trump considers it a strength, but I think Hillary will be going hard right/center for the white GOP/GOP-leaning vote as soon as she cinches the nomination. Trump has an amateur and is learning the cost of alienating whole voting demos as he goes.
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And all the mistakes he's currently making will be used against him in the general; specifically, the backpedaling.  That doesn't seem to be an issue with the brain-dead right, but it won't fly with centrists.  

 
Captain Cranks said:
And all the mistakes he's currently making will be used against him in the general; specifically, the backpedaling.  That doesn't seem to be an issue with the brain-dead right, but it won't fly with centrists.  
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Absolutely. - Here's a preview of what else could happen. Hillary will - purposefully - bate him into insulting her during a debate by talking over him lawyer-style. Trump will respond with a hand to the face and a 'shut up darling I'm talking here....' and watch his women vote (as bad as it is now) go south with where the hispanic vote currently is. No limit to the Hindenburg moments which could take place.

 
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SaintsInDome2006 said:
Absolutely. - Here's a preview of what else could happen. Hillary will - purposefully - bate him into insulting her during a debate by talking over him lawyer-style. Trump will respond with a hand to the face and a 'shut up darling I'm talking here....' and watch his women vote (as bad as it is now) go south with where the hispanic vote currently is. No limit to the Hindenburg moments which could take place.
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The strange thing is almost every woman I talk to hates Hillary. My wife and voting age daughters can`t stand her.

 
Da Guru said:
The strange thing is almost every woman I talk to hates Hillary. My wife and voting age daughters can`t stand her.
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She has a lot of flaws, we know that. She would be a choice opponent for many to most. But I don't think we have seen the repercussions of a woman presidential candidate being insulted with a slur or some sort of condescending term on national tv yet. Could happen. Happened with Fiorina, but she had very little public visibility.

 
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