What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (6 Viewers)

Status
Not open for further replies.
Something positive must have happened today as Hillary's odds on 538 rose from 59.4% (her all time low) yesterday to 61.3%. That's her first increase in over two weeks. It's too early to suggest this indicates anything but perhaps it's a hopeful sign that her rebound has started...

 
Something positive must have happened today as Hillary's odds on 538 rose from 59.4% (her all time low) yesterday to 61.3%. That's her first increase in over two weeks. It's too early to suggest this indicates anything but perhaps it's a hopeful sign that her rebound has started...
Good news: she went all day without a reported cough, up 2.

 
PA is CRITICALLY IMPORTANT

Why the Whole Trump-Clinton Election Could Probably Just Be Held in Pennsylvania

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/17/upshot/why-the-whole-trump-clinton-election-could-probably-just-be-held-in-pennsylvania.html?_r=0


Pennsylvania


Q. Based on the PredictWise state polling probabilities, the entire election could boil down to Pennsylvania. If Hillary Clinton wins the state, she’ll probably be president. If Donald J. Trump wins there, he’ll probably be president — because such a victory would suggest he’d also win Ohio, Florida, North Carolina. Today, PredictWise gives Clinton a 78 percent chance to win the state. This is close to The Upshot forecast (85 percent). Can you give some more insight into what makes Pennsylvania so important and what signs you’ll be looking for in the state in the next few weeks?

A. Pennsylvania has been the most likely tipping-point state since midsummer.

It has been the state to put Hillary Clinton over 270 electoral votes, should she win all of the other more likely states for her. Conversely, it’s also the state that would put Trump over the hump, if he wins all of the states that are more likely for him.

Every day, I run 100,000 simulations of the election. I use the probability of each state going for Clinton or Trump, then I mix that with a correlation matrix that defines the relationships between the states. And every day since late July, Pennsylvania has been the state that most frequently is won by the candidate who wins the election. Currently, there are just 6 percent of scenarios where Clinton wins Pennsylvania but loses the election, and just 3 percent of scenarios where Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins the election.


Since Pennsylvania is more secure for the Clinton camp than other swing states, it’s unlikely that Clinton loses Pennsylvania and wins either Florida or Ohio or other states to make up for the necessary electoral votes. And Trump could take Florida and Ohio and North Carolina, and go over the top with some other combination of swing states. But Pennsylvania is his most likely route.


What I will be looking for in Pennsylvania over the next few weeks is simple: polls in Pennsylvania; polls in Ohio, which have similar demographics (and a lot of polling); and national polls that correlate heavily among the key swing states.

Furthermore, I will be paying special attention to the crosstabs of national polls that focus on key swing demographics for Pennsylvania, when available and reliable, including white women. Beyond the polling for the presidential election, the ups and downs of the Pennsylvania Senate race could be important. The Democratic challenger, Katie McGinty, currently enjoys a slight lead, and that get-out-the-vote campaign will heavily overlap with Clinton’s.

Further, we will learn more soon about ad buys and get-out-the-vote operations in the state. Currently Clinton enjoys a comfortable margin in both categories. If they make a difference — and if they ever make a difference it will be this year with a massive disparity in both advertising and get-out-the-vote efforts — it should give Clinton a slight advantage over the polling average.

 
Maybe it's not "honesty" per se.... but more that they don't perceive Hillary as being genuine. As much as Trump says says a lot of crap, he comes across as being genuine about what he says despite it being crap. Hillary speaks like she practiced it over and over and over again. I honestly don't know what she really thinks. I only know what she practiced saying. I'm pretty sure I know exactly what Trump thinks, as I think he's being genuine when he speaks. I don't like what he thinks, and won't vote for him, but I can see why a voter who wants president to be genuine would prefer Trump over Hillary. 
THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's why Trump is doing well. People are tired of being lied to. Bernie was genuine also.

 
Maybe it's not "honesty" per se.... but more that they don't perceive Hillary as being genuine. As much as Trump says says a lot of crap, he comes across as being genuine about what he says despite it being crap. Hillary speaks like she practiced it over and over and over again. I honestly don't know what she really thinks. I only know what she practiced saying. I'm pretty sure I know exactly what Trump thinks, as I think he's being genuine when he speaks. I don't like what he thinks, and won't vote for him, but I can see why a voter who wants president to be genuine would prefer Trump over Hillary. 
THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's why Trump is doing well. People are tired of being lied to. Bernie was genuine also.
I understand this but isn't Trump lying to people about everyone else lying to them?  His economic plan resembles an NBA player's view on finances.  Spend, spend, spend...worry about the consequences later. 

 
But the problem with putting too much emphasis on Hillary's dishonesty as a reason for the closeness of this election is that, even if you believe she is dishonest and corrupt, "therefore, Trump" is still a mysterious conclusion. 
In the last two months which candidate seems more presidential in their actions?  This is why trump is catching up

 
But the problem with putting too much emphasis on Hillary's dishonesty as a reason for the closeness of this election is that, even if you believe she is dishonest and corrupt, "therefore, Trump" is still a mysterious conclusion. 
In the last two months which candidate seems more presidential in their actions?  This is why trump is catching up
How has Trump demonstrated his "presidential" actions?  Was it when he lied to the president of Mexico, or when he offered a half-baked solution to fixing America by spending like drunk iron worker? 

 
How has Trump demonstrated his "presidential" actions?  Was it when he lied to the president of Mexico, or when he offered a half-baked solution to fixing America by spending like drunk iron worker? 
He actually went to Mexico. He actually went to Louisiana during the floods and he didn't pass out at a 9-11 ceremony and didn't call half the democrats "deplorable"

 
How has Trump demonstrated his "presidential" actions?  Was it when he lied to the president of Mexico, or when he offered a half-baked solution to fixing America by spending like drunk iron worker? 
He actually went to Mexico. He actually went to Louisiana during the floods and he didn't pass out at a 9-11 ceremony and didn't call half the democrats "deplorable"
Yep, he went and then this was the result.

Only reason he went to Louisiana was publicity, and he fumbled that also.  Any other examples? 

 
This guy also says Blumenthal pushed the birther story http://www.noquarterusa.net/blog/79319/confessions-hillary-insider/
At this point, only the truly obtuse and ignorant can deny Hillary's henchmen were the first to use the birther issue for political gain.  It didn't give them much traction in a democratic primary, but it certainly was a part, along with the photos of Obama in Kenyan garb, to paint him as un-American.  Hillary was incredulous about losing ground to "that man" and her operatives took it up a level, including floating the whole birth certificate nonsense.

Trump found a more sympathetic audience for this crap and took it to another level.  That does not exonerate Hillary for being the one to first use it as ammunition any more than her being the first to use it exonerates Trump on any level for bringing it up again.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Maybe it's not "honesty" per se.... but more that they don't perceive Hillary as being genuine. As much as Trump says says a lot of crap, he comes across as being genuine about what he says despite it being crap. Hillary speaks like she practiced it over and over and over again. I honestly don't know what she really thinks. I only know what she practiced saying. I'm pretty sure I know exactly what Trump thinks, as I think he's being genuine when he speaks. I don't like what he thinks, and won't vote for him, but I can see why a voter who wants president to be genuine would prefer Trump over Hillary. 
Fundamentally, Trump is viewed by a large swath of voters as telling it like it is, whereas the vast majority of voters do not believe Hillary tells anything like it is.

Problem, of course, is that Trump either doesn't know what he's talking about or, when he does, he lies about it.  But, this is the art of the presentation, and Trump is a master at branding an image.  I'm convinced we are giving him way too much credit here; if he had been up against a normal democratic candidate, he would have been squashed and probably would have dropped out by now.  But, the fact that Hillary's number one problem revolves around deceptiveness, evasion, obstruction, lying and not telling anything like it is, the juxtaposition against Trump is jarring and has caused a lot of independents to consider a crazy person over a recidivist liar.

 
He wanted to get out of there before someone asked him how much he has given to charity over the past X amount of years.  We all know that number is close to $0 of course, but I digress. 
I think that would still be better than a foundation only giving 5.7%. And there's the problem, it's always who's worse. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
That post by Larry Johnson and NoQuarterUSA is the real deal. He even appears in Hillary's emails as he was part of the Blumenthal private intelligence team, Blumenthal even directly sent Hillary links from that site (albeit re intelligence in 2009 or so), and it is a fact that NoQuarter was pushing the birther story in favor of Hillary and that pro-Hillary types were pushing that story from that site online during the 2007-08 primary. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Maybe it's not "honesty" per se.... but more that they don't perceive Hillary as being genuine. As much as Trump says says a lot of crap, he comes across as being genuine about what he says despite it being crap. Hillary speaks like she practiced it over and over and over again. I honestly don't know what she really thinks. I only know what she practiced saying. I'm pretty sure I know exactly what Trump thinks, as I think he's being genuine when he speaks. I don't like what he thinks, and won't vote for him, but I can see why a voter who wants president to be genuine would prefer Trump over Hillary. 
I get your point but I'm having trouble applying it to Trump. Unlike you I have no idea what he truly believes, if anything. 
There's hope yet Tim!!!!  I'm in this boat and it's why I a can't get to "fearful" of Trump outside the "fear" of the unknown.  It's a strange dichotomy his naysayers are facing....they have no idea what he believes, but they believe what he says enough to be scared of what he's saying.   

 
There's hope yet Tim!!!!  I'm in this boat and it's why I a can't get to "fearful" of Trump outside the "fear" of the unknown.  It's a strange dichotomy his naysayers are facing....they have no idea what he believes, but they believe what he says enough to be scared of what he's saying.   
Well uncertainty can lead to economic crises and foolhardiness can lead to wars, but hey "what the hell do we have to lose?"

 
There's hope yet Tim!!!!  I'm in this boat and it's why I a can't get to "fearful" of Trump outside the "fear" of the unknown.  It's a strange dichotomy his naysayers are facing....they have no idea what he believes, but they believe what he says enough to be scared of what he's saying.   
Well uncertainty can lead to economic crises and foolhardiness can lead to wars, but hey "what the hell do we have to lose?"
We have plenty to lose :oldunsure:

Certainty can lead to economic crisis as well.  Foolhardiness does lead to wars and there's no question we'll be in another with either one of these loons at the wheel.  The case can be made that the chances of a Hillary war are greater than that of a Trump war.  Not sure what any of your response to my post has to do with the post though.

 
I think that would still be better than a foundation only giving 5.7%. And there's the problem, it's always who's worse. 
What if that foundation also had implementation arms that made it the equivalent of a foundation giving 80%-90%?

Come on.  There's so much legitimate baggage with Clinton, you don't have to resort to cheap obfuscation tactics Florina stooped to a year ago.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
There's hope yet Tim!!!!  I'm in this boat and it's why I a can't get to "fearful" of Trump outside the "fear" of the unknown.  It's a strange dichotomy his naysayers are facing....they have no idea what he believes, but they believe what he says enough to be scared of what he's saying.   
Commish I'm fearful because whatever he believes, everything he says is dumb and terrible. Almost all of his proposals are awful. And he shuns complexity and nuanced thinking in favor of whatever seems the most simplistic reaction. 

 
There's hope yet Tim!!!!  I'm in this boat and it's why I a can't get to "fearful" of Trump outside the "fear" of the unknown.  It's a strange dichotomy his naysayers are facing....they have no idea what he believes, but they believe what he says enough to be scared of what he's saying.   
This is one of your more nonsensical arguments. You're acting like he's a mystery man who has never uttered a word just because he flip-flops on penalizing women who have abortions and bounces back and force between bloodthirsty war criminal and isolationist.  We know plenty about him.

 
That doesn't make any logical sense.  Even if "Hillary started it," that would in no way absolve Trump from picking it up and running with it.  

Once again, we are dealing with two candidates who are each despicable.  One is considerably more despicable than the other, but that doesn't make the other good.
Why do you think Trump and his surrogates are all over the news pushing the Hillary started it narrative?  It's obviously a coordinated effort to try to deflect and shift the blame.  And it's working on some of you. 

 
Facts???

Does anyone spread more baseless rumors on these boards than you? 
SID has had a tremendous track record, particularly during the email investigation at which time you, Tim, and a quiz were spreading "nothing to see here, move along" propaganda.  

 
It's not silly if it's true.  And only Hillary people are so paranoid as to think this exonerates Trump.  They are both turds for trying to pull this off, Trump inky a bit more so because he took it further.  But, intent and groundwork were there with both camps.  Hillary just had...wait for it...less stamina to keep working the angle.  I suppose good for her.
Seriously - this is your analysis of the birther issue?  Trump's entire candidacy hinges on him garnering support based on his birtherism over he last 5 years.  Hillary has never once questioned Obama's birthplace and has always denounced those who did.

The anti-Hillary disease that some of you have is frightening.  

 
Facts???

Does anyone spread more baseless rumors on these boards than you? 
Tommy, I provide links and information. You want to disagree with it, that's fine. Just at least do yourself the favor of evaluating the information instead of disregarding it out of hand, sight unseen. My position is that acknowledging some or any of these facts about Hillary doesn't affect whether you or anyone should or would vote for her over Trump, and if you're evaluating claims based on who they help if they're correct then again you're doing it wrong. See your OP on this. That's my point.

 
There's hope yet Tim!!!!  I'm in this boat and it's why I a can't get to "fearful" of Trump outside the "fear" of the unknown.  It's a strange dichotomy his naysayers are facing....they have no idea what he believes, but they believe what he says enough to be scared of what he's saying.   
This is one of your more nonsensical arguments. You're acting like he's a mystery man who has never uttered a word just because he flip-flops on penalizing women who have abortions and bounces back and force between bloodthirsty war criminal and isolationist.  We know plenty about him.
It's not an argument.  It's an observation.  If one says he's a liar and we can't trust a think he says, that's fine.  We can't trust a thing he says.  I'm good with that.  However, as soon as one turns around and says "wow, did you just hear that?" and extrapolates from words that supposedly can't be trusted in the first place, I find it a bit silly.  Can't have it both ways.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Facts???

Does anyone spread more baseless rumors on these boards than you? 
He is?  What happened to Mr. Ham?

Anyway, I think you and SID are both right.  It's always good to treat each situation and story differently, but simply regurgitating stories without evaluating their veracity yourself is irresponsible. For one thing, it distorts the perceptions of others.  Many people believe that where there's smoke there's fire, so if you blow a lot of smoke they'll assume there is one even if there isn't. Or in the case of Clinton, if you blow tons of smoke they'll assume there's raging forest fire when in facts there's just a campfire.

But the thing it does that's even worse is that it encourages media outlets to keep churning them out, because it gets them clicks and return visits from people who hate the target of the fabricated or poorly researched story.

So yeah, share them all you want.  But you can't play the "I'm just providing links and information" card.  What you're doing has consequences, and is subject to criticism.

 
Commish I'm fearful because whatever he believes, everything he says is dumb and terrible. Almost all of his proposals are awful. And he shuns complexity and nuanced thinking in favor of whatever seems the most simplistic reaction. 
So far, I agree here.  Though I don't get worked up over them because I know he's not going to get any of it pushed through.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
It's not an argument.  It's an observation.  If one says he's a liar and we can't trust a think he says, that's fine.  We can't trust a thing he says.  I'm good with that.  However, as soon as one turns around and says "wow, did you just hear that?" and extrapolates from words that supposedly can't be trusted in the first place, I find it a bit silly.  Can't have it both ways.
It's not having it both ways  He's a liar, and he's thin-skinned and irresponsible and hateful and stupid. Those things can (and obviously do) co-exist and are all bad characteristics of a leader.  Your logic is flawed.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
At this point, only the truly obtuse and ignorant can deny Hillary's henchmen were the first to use the birther issue for political gain.  It didn't give them much traction in a democratic primary, but it certainly was a part, along with the photos of Obama in Kenyan garb, to paint him as un-American.  Hillary was incredulous about losing ground to "that man" and her operatives took it up a level, including floating the whole birth certificate nonsense.

Trump found a more sympathetic audience for this crap and took it to another level.  That does not exonerate Hillary for being the one to first use it as ammunition any more than her being the first to use it exonerates Trump on any level for bringing it up again.
Larry Johnson is a trusted source for you now?  Are you onboard with his recent Hillary has Parkinson's blog post as well? 

 
It's not an argument.  It's an observation.  If one says he's a liar and we can't trust a think he says, that's fine.  We can't trust a thing he says.  I'm good with that.  However, as soon as one turns around and says "wow, did you just hear that?" and extrapolates from words that supposedly can't be trusted in the first place, I find it a bit silly.  Can't have it both ways.
It's not having it both ways  He's a liar, and he's thin-skinned and irresponsible.  Those two things can (and obviously do) co-exist and are both bad characteristics of a leader.  Your logic is flawed.
This is shifting from the point.  The point was one can't get worked up over what he's saying if they also believe everything he says is a lie.  Of course he's think skinned and irresponsible.  I didn't introduce that to the conversation.

 
It's not having it both ways  He's a liar, and he's thin-skinned and irresponsible.  Those two things can (and obviously do) co-exist and are both bad characteristics of a leader.  Your logic is flawed.
That's actually 3 things..all of which of true.  He's need to stoke his HUMONGOUS ego is the worst characteristic though since it's so easy to get under his skin (see the Flint pastor or Gates this weekend)

 
THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

It's why Trump is doing well. People are tired of being lied to. Bernie was genuine also.
People are so tires of being lied to that they are supporting a candidate who in his short time on the political stage is pretty much unrivaled in modern US Politics with regard to lying publically. 

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Tommy, I provide links and information. You want to disagree with it, that's fine. Just at least do yourself the favor of evaluating the information instead of disregarding it out of hand, sight unseen. My position is that acknowledging some or any of these facts about Hillary doesn't affect whether you or anyone should or would vote for her over Trump, and if you're evaluating claims based on who they help if they're correct then again you're doing it wrong. See your OP on this. That's my point.
Sorry Saints - while I appreciate the effort, I don't have the time nor the motivation to wade through much of the sludge you post on these boards. It's as if Noquarter.blog is just as credible in your world as a well sourced Post or Times article is. 

 
Clinton's biggest problem right now - is that the "water-cooler" talk about the campaign has devolved into "Wow, we really have two terrible candidates to choose from!"  So, all of the fringe Clinton supporters are kind of "meh" about the whole election, and may or may not get out the vote.

I think it was a strategic mistake for the Clinton campaign, and her surrogates, and the ardent supporters (Including folks on here) to make this campaign about Trump, and how terrible Trump would be for the country.  That all may be true, but I think two things happened.  First, you have set the bar so low on Trump, that he beats expectations easily.  You scream "devil" long and loud enough, and soon people start to see he probably is not as bad as you portray, so he starts to look "good" by comparison.  Second, by making this into "who is worse", you have invited comparisons about everything wrong with Clinton - and there is fertile ground here.  She has a long history in public life, and lots of bad decisions.

Instead, I think Clinton should have taken a page from Bernie - and done her best to stay on message, with a positive message about what she wants to do going forward.  Nobody is talking about what either candidate really wants to accomplish as President - because they are too busy talking about how the opponent is so terrible.  Maybe Clinton can get back on message in the debates - in theory, the debates are set up to focus on vision and the future.  But who knows :shrug:

 I do know that the more her surrogates and supporters make this about "Never-Trump", the more it helps Trump.

Clinton should be hammering home the points of affordable healthcare, affordable college, massive new jobs rebuilding infrastructure (or ideally eco-friendly energy).  She should be touting plans to rein in wall street, and make life easier for main street.  She should be coming on board that the war on drugs was a mistake - and offering a new approach to dealing with the burgeoning heroine epidemic.

She can't help that she is smarmy, but she can use her surrogates to focus on a positive message, instead of offering hit pieces to the media - offer essays on how a Clinton presidency will positively impact America.  That message is lost right now amid all the "never-Trump" and just general negativity.

 
TobiasFunke said:
He is?  What happened to Mr. Ham?

Anyway, I think you and SID are both right.  It's always good to treat each situation and story differently, but simply regurgitating stories without evaluating their veracity yourself is irresponsible. For one thing, it distorts the perceptions of others.  Many people believe that where there's smoke there's fire, so if you blow a lot of smoke they'll assume there is one even if there isn't. Or in the case of Clinton, if you blow tons of smoke they'll assume there's raging forest fire when in facts there's just a campfire.

But the thing it does that's even worse is that it encourages media outlets to keep churning them out, because it gets them clicks and return visits from people who hate the target of the fabricated or poorly researched story.

So yeah, share them all you want.  But you can't play the "I'm just providing links and information" card.  What you're doing has consequences, and is subject to criticism.
Just a point: Tommy's original point, as I read it, is that information, pro or con Hillary, should be judged by how or whether it helps or hurts Hillary. I think we can all agree, from any angle, that is the wrong way to evaluate information.

 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Users who are viewing this thread

Back
Top