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Official Hillary Clinton 2016 thread (6 Viewers)

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The hate and ignorance of people in this and the Trump thread and response to facts are ignorant and uneducated.
The hate coming from the Trumpers? The joy they get from it?
This rhetoric that Clinton was as evil as Trump is an exposing of ones ignorance.
According to Trumpers if you point out their ignorance, you are hateful.

But, but, but... EMMMMMMMMMMMMMAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLSSSSSSSSSSS!

 
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Birds, please tell us more about how sexual assault isnt as important as emails... Go on...

Facts, its as if Trumpers have none. They made up their own on Fox News and the feeble minded people with no free thinking ate it up.

Show me one email that was criminal, where is any evidence, I'm sure you know more than the investigators from your couch as you click on the fake sites in Macedonia.

 
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Heard this...

"The polls were all wrong, because when asked people were afraid to say how they think."  When the presumption is that you are racists, sexist and stupid before you voice your thoughts, how are you going to take it?

Liberals got a huge wakeup call.  I hope you received it. 

 
WheelsUp said:
Birds, please tell us more about how sexual assault isnt as important as emails... Go on...

Facts, its as if Trumpers have none. They made up their own on Fox News and the feeble minded people with no free thinking ate it up.

Show me one email that was criminal, where is any evidence, I'm sure you know more than the investigators from your couch as you click on the fake sites in Macedonia.
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:lmao:

You should go walk around the streets tonight throwing a temper tantrum since you didn't get your way. That will help. 

 
Mr. Ham said:
Heard this...

"The polls were all wrong, because when asked people were afraid to say how they think."  When the presumption is that you are racists, sexist and stupid before you voice your thoughts, how are you going to take it?

Liberals got a huge wakeup call.  I hope you received it. 
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I understand the premise, but that's not how polls work. Polls don't ask people "to say how they think". A poll is a telephone survey, the questions are succinctly worded and to the point, with straightforward closed-end answer choices. There is no "tell me what you think" aspect to it.

The problem with the polls were 1) they didn't conduct enough of them in states where they foolishly presumed she would win, like WI. and 2) the recency of polls after the Comey letter to Congress. Looking at the elections results vs. the polls, by throwing out any polls before the Comey letter and reviewing the remaining results, that data does a much better job of predicting the Trump outcome then just aggregating every poll, which is the trap Silver fell in.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
I understand the premise, but that's not how polls work. Polls don't ask people "to say how they think". A poll is a telephone survey, the questions are succinctly worded and to the point, with straightforward closed-end answer choices. There is no "tell me what you think" aspect to it.

The problem with the polls were 1) they didn't conduct enough of them in states where they foolishly presumed she would win, like WI. and 2) the recency of polls after the Comey letter to Congress. Looking at the elections results vs. the polls, by throwing out any polls before the Comey letter and reviewing the remaining results, that data does a much better job of predicting the Trump outcome then just aggregating every poll, which is the trap Silver fell in.
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And polls can also Internet based, these tend to have a bit more skew toward certain demographics than phone though (older respondents, lower income can be tougher to get online). 

 
Mr. Ham said:
Heard this...

"The polls were all wrong, because when asked people were afraid to say how they think."  When the presumption is that you are racists, sexist and stupid before you voice your thoughts, how are you going to take it?

Liberals got a huge wakeup call.  I hope you received it. 
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I think it's more accurate to say that the DNC got a wakeup call.  Time will tell if they paid attention to it. 

 
Ghost Rider said:
I think it's more accurate to say that the DNC got a wakeup call.  Time will tell if they paid attention to it. 
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I think data people got a wakeup call as well. Models are only as good as the data input, and the faults pointed out above really shook guys like Silver and Wang. A guy like Lichtman, whose model doesn't use polling data, got it right.

 
WheelsUp said:
The hate and ignorance of people in this and the Trump thread and response to facts are ignorant and uneducated.
The hate coming from the Trumpers? The joy they get from it?
This rhetoric that Clinton was as evil as Trump is an exposing of ones ignorance.
According to Trumpers if you point out their ignorance, you are hateful.

But, but, but... EMMMMMMMMMMMMMAAAAAIIIIIIIIIIIIILLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLSSSSSSSSSSS!
Click to expand...
Cry me a ####### river.  Why don't you make your way over to Yale where they are throwing a pizza party because people like you are butt hurt.  

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
I think data people got a wakeup call as well. Models are only as good as the data input, and the faults pointed out above really shook guys like Silver and Wang. A guy like Lichtman, whose model doesn't use polling data, got it right.
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Polling moved more into the art realm and away from the science realm this election.

 
Grace Under Pressure said:
I understand the premise, but that's not how polls work. Polls don't ask people "to say how they think". A poll is a telephone survey, the questions are succinctly worded and to the point, with straightforward closed-end answer choices. There is no "tell me what you think" aspect to it.

The problem with the polls were 1) they didn't conduct enough of them in states where they foolishly presumed she would win, like WI. and 2) the recency of polls after the Comey letter to Congress. Looking at the elections results vs. the polls, by throwing out any polls before the Comey letter and reviewing the remaining results, that data does a much better job of predicting the Trump outcome then just aggregating every poll, which is the trap Silver fell in.
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Not really. Marquette University does a poll regarding WI politics and is highly regarded. IIRC it's been very accurate in past elections. The last poll had Hillary up by 7% and Feingold ahead of Johnson by 1%. This poll was taken after the Comey letter. Johnson beat Feingold by about 7%. And of course, Hillary lost WI as well.

IMO the polls directly reflected two things: 1) the silent Trump voters. If you aired your support for Trump you were sneered upon. All you have to do is look at the Trump thread. 2) the distrust of the media by the Trump voters. Many Trump voters simply didn't trust the media, so they were either going to not answer the phone or not going to answer honestly

 
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The USC/UCLA poll turned out to be the most accurate and it had Trump tied or winning the entire way.  It's impossible to know what turned the election because it may have never turned at all.  99% of the pollsters were likely using a bad model the entire time.

 
jonessed said:
The USC/UCLA poll turned out to be the most accurate and it had Trump tied or winning the entire way.  It's impossible to know what turned the election because it may have never turned at all.  99% of the pollsters were likely using a bad model the entire time.
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None of us are experts, but I'd be willing to guess that they overestimated Dem and minority turnout based on 2008 and 2012.

There's also something really weird and off in the polling about Hispanic and black support.

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
None of us are experts, but I'd be willing to guess that they overestimated Dem and minority turnout based on 2008 and 2012.

There's also something really weird and off in the polling about Hispanic and black support.
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They also seemed to think the less enthusiasm there was at a rally the more your poll numbers go up...

 
My liberal friends on Facebook are all posing pictures of safety pins now because it's the new symbol of solidarity for those who assume doesn't think like them is less than.  I so want to post this there, but I can't.

Safety Pin

 
The early voting numbers were never going to be representative of anything.  It was always just a red herring that the media and others trotted out to get eyeballs.  I tried to explain this before the election to people like Henry, but they took it as partisan I believe.

 
Mr. Ham said:
My liberal friends on Facebook are all posing pictures of safety pins now because it's the new symbol of solidarity for those who assume doesn't think like them is less than.  I so want to post this there, but I can't.

Safety Pin
Click to expand...
I'm not a smart man.  WTF does a safety pin have to do with anything?

 
jonessed said:
The USC/UCLA poll turned out to be the most accurate and it had Trump tied or winning the entire way.  It's impossible to know what turned the election because it may have never turned at all.  99% of the pollsters were likely using a bad model the entire time.
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That poll wasn't accurate at all. It was a national poll and it consistently showed Trump winning by 3-5 points. Hillary won the popular vote. 

 
timschochet said:
That poll wasn't accurate at all. It was a national poll and it consistently showed Trump winning by 3-5 points. Hillary won the popular vote. 
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God dangit!!! Tim's going to get his victory no matter what!

Seriously, Tim. Thanks for sticking around after the election. I know it had/has to be tough. Also, thanks for not making any bets and then disappearing. That wouldn't have been cool. 

 
Does a man who believe in a "safe place" have a mirror?  Good Lord, could there be anything softer...

 
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avoiding injuries said:
God dangit!!! Tim's going to get his victory no matter what!

Seriously, Tim. Thanks for sticking around after the election. I know it had/has to be tough. Also, thanks for not making any bets and then disappearing. That wouldn't have been cool. 
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You don't have to thank me for not failing to pay my debts. I have lost some bets to people here and have always paid immediately. Most people around here are honorable.

 
jonessed said:
The USC/UCLA poll turned out to be the most accurate and it had Trump tied or winning the entire way.  It's impossible to know what turned the election because it may have never turned at all.  99% of the pollsters were likely using a bad model the entire time.
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This is not true.  It had Trump winning by 3%, and he lost the popular vote by 1%.  A poll showing Hillary up by 4 would have been more accurate.

 
avoiding injuries said:
God dangit!!! Tim's going to get his victory no matter what!

Seriously, Tim. Thanks for sticking around after the election. I know it had/has to be tough. Also, thanks for not making any bets and then disappearing. That wouldn't have been cool. 
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The USC/UCLA poll had Trump at 3.2% in the end.  The vaunted 538 who was lambasted for calling it too tight had Hillary at 3.6%.  The popular vote currently has Hillary at .02%.

They picked up the bias in the other polls as they were the only ones to ask how comfortable participants were in telling telephone pollsters who they were actually voting for.  

Most importantly, they picked the winner.

 
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Chaos Commish said:
How so? 
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Yeah bad choice of words. I didn't mean to suggest anything nefarious. I'm curious of the explanation itself. Did we not read/hear that polling showed Trump black support was around 1% & Hispanic support was ~10-15%? Clearly mistakes were made. Maybe minorities were as or even more susceptible to hiding their candidate preference.

 
avoiding injuries said:
God dangit!!! Tim's going to get his victory no matter what!

Seriously, Tim. Thanks for sticking around after the election. I know it had/has to be tough. Also, thanks for not making any bets and then disappearing. That wouldn't have been cool. 
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I've said this about Tim, he may be delusional but at least he isn't a #####. He takes his beatings like a man. 

 
jonessed said:
avoiding injuries said:
God dangit!!! Tim's going to get his victory no matter what!

Seriously, Tim. Thanks for sticking around after the election. I know it had/has to be tough. Also, thanks for not making any bets and then disappearing. That wouldn't have been cool. 
Click to expand...
The USC/UCLA poll had Trump at 3.2% in the end.  The vaunted 538 who was lambasted for calling it too tight had Hillary at 3.6%.  The popular vote currently has Hillary at .02%.
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.02%? Do you mean 2% or do you actually mean zero-point-zero-two percent? I mean, they're both terribly wrong but first I need to know which one you meant before I decide how hard to laugh at you.

 
[scooter] said:
.02%? Do you mean 2% or do you actually mean zero-point-zero-two percent? I mean, they're both terribly wrong but first I need to know which one you meant before I decide how hard to laugh at you.
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My numbers were from a few days ago.  Looks like it's up to 0.1%.

Edit:  Ah.  I see the confusion. I'm using the voting numbers to compare the actual percent difference she won by, which is currently 0.1% more votes.

 
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jonessed said:
[scooter] said:
.02%? Do you mean 2% or do you actually mean zero-point-zero-two percent? I mean, they're both terribly wrong but first I need to know which one you meant before I decide how hard to laugh at you.
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My numbers were from a few days ago.  Looks like it's up to 0.1%.

Edit:  Ah.  I see the confusion. I'm using the voting numbers to compare the actual percent difference she won by, which is currently 0.1% more votes.
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So, you are using a method that is completely different from the USC poll or 538 to make a direct comparison to the USC poll and 538. Gotcha.

Also, your math is still wrong! :lol:

Percent is calculated by moving the decimal point two places, guy.

:jonessedmath: :lol:

 
jonessed said:
My numbers were from a few days ago.  Looks like it's up to 0.1%.

Edit:  Ah.  I see the confusion. I'm using the voting numbers to compare the actual percent difference she won by, which is currently 0.1% more votes.
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His candidate lost, and since he's still bitter and can't currently argue politics, he's attacking your misuse of a decimal point. 

 
avoiding injuries said:
jonessed said:
My numbers were from a few days ago.  Looks like it's up to 0.1%.

Edit:  Ah.  I see the confusion. I'm using the voting numbers to compare the actual percent difference she won by, which is currently 0.1% more votes.
Click to expand...
His candidate lost, and since he's still bitter and can't currently argue politics, he's attacking your misuse of a decimal point. 
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Would it make you feel better if a Trump supporter pointed out how dumb his comparison was?

 
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