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*** Official Jaguars Thread - Team Putting #DTWD to The Test *** (1 Viewer)

msommer said:
No one can offer him anything unless he can pass a physical in early March.

If not, he is under contract with the Jags. A guaranteed contract. For 19 million. If he passes the physical he can be cut with no cap repercussions.

Do you think it is in Blake's interest to pass the physical?
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I actually think it is in his best interest to pass a physical. The league is so starving for QB's that he'll get a multiyear deal if he hits the market. It won't be the most extravagant number, but he'll get paid.

 
msommer said:
You can keep AR15 and Blake - but then it's going to be a mighty quiet FA period otherwise
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I think the most likely scenario is they let Hurns go, and try to lowball AR15. I doubt he stays.

If they end up being stuck with bortles, they are still taking a guy early, they have to. But hopefully they just find a way to get cousins

 
Mr. Brownstone said:
I actually think it is in his best interest to pass a physical. The league is so starving for QB's that he'll get a multiyear deal if he hits the market. It won't be the most extravagant number, but he'll get paid.
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But if he doesn't pass the physical, he is pretty much guaranteed to start on the Jaguars (he will pass the physical later), cash his 19m and get to sign a long term deal in 2019 with another team. Only catastrophic injury would stop that.

I don't know, I also don't know if it's even possible to make sure you don't pass it

 
msommer said:
But if he doesn't pass the physical, he is pretty much guaranteed to start on the Jaguars (he will pass the physical later), cash his 19m and get to sign a long term deal in 2019 with another team. Only catastrophic injury would stop that.

I don't know, I also don't know if it's even possible to make sure you don't pass it
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Yeah, that's most likely.

 
Pwingles said:
I think the most likely scenario is they let Hurns go, and try to lowball AR15. I doubt he stays.

If they end up being stuck with bortles, they are still taking a guy early, they have to. But hopefully they just find a way to get cousins
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I can see Hurns being cut, AR being franchised, Lee walking, and a WR drafted.

 
Can the Jaguars even afford Kirk Cousins?

By Alfie Crow@AlfieBCC Feb 5, 2018, 9:39am EST

Can the Jaguars even afford Kirk Cousins?

I was planning on writing this closer to the end of February and not immediately after the Super Bowl, but the sheer prominence of salary cap fear and misinformation that is starting to run rampant has sparked me to write it much sooner. I don’t know if the Jaguars will pursue pending free agent quarterback Kirk Cousins, but the biggest question that seems to be looming in; Can the Jaguars actually afford to sign Kirk Cousins without wrecking their future?

Short answer: Absolutely.

Jaguars Current Salary Cap Projection

The Jaguars are currently projected to have roughly between $5 to 10 million in cap room depending on the actual cap number, if they do absolutely nothing. If you’re just looking at that, of course you’re going to wonder how in the world they could afford to sign a free agent quarterback, but it’s a lot more nuanced than that. You have to consider the annual cap increase, which has been at least $12 million the past two seasons and the current projection of about $178 million is a conservative projection, so the projected cap room is going to end up higher.

There’s also rollover

When people are looking at future cap figures, a lot of the time they’re failing to consider cap rollover, which is a thing now. Currently the NFLPA daily cap report shows the Jaguars with $27.7 million in cap room, which is a lower end number because it includes unrealized bonuses and such. But for this exercise we’ll just use that low number. So there you have nearly $30 million in cap space you’re rolling into 2018, which alone could eat Cousins cap hit in the first season if you wanted to, without doing any other moves.

You can cut players to shed cap easily

The Jaguars can also clear quite a bit of cap room without cutting major core players, too. If the team does pursue Cousins in free agency it would mean they’ll shed Blake Bortles $19 million salary, which frees up $19 million. People are concerned the recent wrist surgery will execute the injury clause, but I have a hard time believing he would not pass a physical. If you wanted to further clear up cap room, you can cut Chris Ivory who looks out the door anyway and save just over $3 million. You can re-structure Allen Hurns contract to drop his salary from $7 million to say... $4 million guaranteed and save another $3 million. Those moves, plus roll over, push you to around $50 million in cap space. That’s more than enough to sign Cousins, who’s cap hits you can manipulate on a year to year basis based on projections and even heavily front load if you want, and bring back Allen Robinson.

Team is setup to shed cap after 2019 anyway

The Jaguars have continuously setup their big free agent and re-signing deals with “out” after two years. If you’re viewing the current state of the Jaguars in a two-year Super Bowl window, they’re setup to shed mountains of cash after the 2019 season. In 2020 you can cut a soon-to-be 34-year old Calais Campbell to save $17.5 million or a near 31-year old Malik Jackson to save $15.5 million. Going further you can cut over 30’s Barry Church and Tashaun Gipson to save a combined $15.35 million. By that time, ideally you’d have drafted their replacements and they’re ready to step in and take over. Heck, after the 2018 season you can cut Marcell Dareus and save $11.58 million in cap room.

When you’re re-signing picks is when the FA should fall off

A big reason the Jaguars signed free agents the way they did with the outs they did is it lines up with when they can re-sign their young players. For instance, the team cannot even negotiate a contract extension with Jalen Ramsey, Myles Jack or Yannick Ngakoue until after the 2018 season. Even with that, you have tools like the fifth-year option for Ramsey or even the franchise tag. Regardless, they’re all signed on rookie deals through 2019 and the 2018 and beyond draft picks should be filling their spots as the cheapish players on the roster while they take over the spots currently filled by the high priced free agents.

Long story short; the fear of wrecking the future salary cap by signing Cousins is based on a lack of information, more than anything else. It can be done, without much cap or roster manipulation, and the Jaguars set themselves up in the future to be able to do that in case Blake Bortles ended up being the guy and needed to be paid. That’s one funny thing about looking at the future cap figures and projections is, the Jaguars set themselves up to be able to pay a QB this year or next, because they had to prepare for it.

 
@AdamSchefter: Jacksonville’s three-year, $54 million deal with Blake Bortles essentially serves as a bridge for both: 

It allows Bortles time to shine and try to earn another lucrative extension - or for the team to have added time to find another QB.

 
I am curious if the Jags kicked the tires on Alex Smith. It could be they did but KC wanted to send him to the NFC rather than to an AFC contender that the Chiefs would have to beat.

 
dhockster said:
I am curious if the Jags kicked the tires on Alex Smith. It could be they did but KC wanted to send him to the NFC rather than to an AFC contender that the Chiefs would have to beat.
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I think the Jags actually like Bortles- to some degree. I think he has a lot of respect in locker room. 

But I don't think either of those statements prevent them from drafting a QB early.

Jags don't run a WCO. Bortles gets a rap for dumpoffs but Jags do take shots. 

I don't think Alex Smith was ever on their radar.

 
Full guarantees of 26 mil. They can cut him whenever. If he has a great year, they save a lot of money for two years. Really, a good deal.

 
JaxBill said:
@AdamSchefter: Jacksonville’s three-year, $54 million deal with Blake Bortles essentially serves as a bridge for both: 

It allows Bortles time to shine and try to earn another lucrative extension - or for the team to have added time to find another QB.
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It also makes sense for Bortles in that it gives him a couple of years to wait for the old-timers to get out of the way and even more teams will be QB-desperate with a bigger salary cap to spend. You have to think Brady/Brees/Eli will all be gone. If Rodgers/BigBen/Rivers/Flacco/Alex smith are still going they will have one foot out the door. I laugh when I see some mock drafts only have 2-3 QB's taken in the top half of the draft. It's already a QB desperate league and will be even more so in a year. And much more so in two. 

 
I thought they'd be doing well to get his cap number to 12 Mil.

@AdamSchefter: Jaguars’ QB Blake Bortles’ salary-cap number for the 2018 season now will be $10 million, down from the $19 million it was scheduled to to be. His new contract lowered his cap number for coming season by a whopping $9 million.

 
This explains it

@NBCOlympics: @SNFonNBC @ProFootballTalk Did you know...

@BBortles5 has never lost an Olympic event. (h/t @BortlesFacts)

 
What are Jags fans opinions on the Fournette pick? He had a very productive year but would have rather had Mahomes? 

 
Ilov80s said:
What are Jags fans opinions on the Fournette pick? He had a very productive year but would have rather had Mahomes? 
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The Leonard Fournette pick helped bring a needed toughness to the team and it helped redefine who they are. But I wish they picked Deshaun Watson instead. 

 
Currently sitting at roughly $33M in cap space.

With this additional cap space, there is little chance Allen Robinson isn't signed to a new contract.

 
Ilov80s said:
What are Jags fans opinions on the Fournette pick? He had a very productive year but would have rather had Mahomes? 
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Obviously this is done with hindsight, but I really liked the pick.  If they had picked Mahomes instead of Fournette, we would have had another year of Ivory & Yeldon struggling to produce against 8 man fronts with defenses challenging Bortles to beat them, and Mahomes would have sat most of the year.  With Fournette, at times he was able to gain yardage against the stacked defenses and Bortles didn't throw as many game killing interceptions.  It is hard not to be happy with how things worked out this year having gone to the AFC Championship game.

 
Not sure why anyone would be disappointed in Fournette. He defines what they want to do on offense and really sets the tone in a game. Certainly worse picks. In fact if Fournette was not the pick they may not have made the playoffs. 

 
Say what you want about Bortles but he’s not nearly as bad as some people make him out to be. Contract makes sense for both sides. If Bortles can build off end of last year Jags got a good deal. If not they can move on without too much of a sunk cost.

 
I get that Bortles was good in the Pittsburgh game, and was good for the first 3 quarters of the Patriots game. I have a hard time getting over how bad he was in the Bills game. If the Bills had any kind of offense, the Jags lose that game because of Bortles. I think that at least for 2018, the Jags have wasted a chance to be a Super Bowl contender, As I don't see Bortles getting them there. If Watson and Luck are back, the Texans and Colts games become much harder and they already have to play NE, Phi, Pitt, KC, and Dallas. Philly will be in London and KC and Dallas will be on the road. Hopefully, for you guys, if Bortles flames out, you can move on to a better alternative in 2019. At least your GM was smart enough not to lock you into Bortles for the long haul.

 
King of the Jungle said:
Not sure why anyone would be disappointed in Fournette. He defines what they want to do on offense and really sets the tone in a game. Certainly worse picks. In fact if Fournette was not the pick they may not have made the playoffs. 
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I agree but if they had drafted Mahomes/Watson they might be establishing a chance a multi-year Seahawks type run. Great defense and cheap young QB who can make plays. Did the team's offensive production dip in the games Fournette missed? I don't think the Vegas lines really moved when he was out. Also, 3rd round they could have gotten Hunt, Foreman, or in the 4th Perine. I think Mahomes with Foreman/Yeldon/Ivory/Corey Grant offered a lot more long term upside at QB (the most important position) and not all that big of a short term downside at RB. 

 
Mr. Brownstone said:
And I'd hate to see Marqise Lee re-signed more than I'd hate to see them move on from Allen Robinson.
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This. Surprised that they're letting Robinson test free agency. Even more surprised that Lee might be the Plan B.

I like Keelan Cole and Dede as complementary pieces but losing ARob would hurt. Not like there will be a lot of quality alternatives in free agency.

 
JaxBill said:
This. Surprised that they're letting Robinson test free agency. Even more surprised that Lee might be the Plan B.

I like Keelan Cole and Dede as complementary pieces but losing ARob would hurt. Not like there will be a lot of quality alternatives in free agency.
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don't forget hurns!!!

 
:kicksrock:

@JohnOehser: Jaguars will not use franchise or transition tag on WR Allen Robinson, he has been told. Deadline to apply tag Tuesday at 4 p.m. The sides have until March 14 to work out a deal to prevent Robinson from becoming unrestricted free agent

 
JaxBill said:
:kicksrock:

@JohnOehser: Jaguars will not use franchise or transition tag on WR Allen Robinson, he has been told. Deadline to apply tag Tuesday at 4 p.m. The sides have until March 14 to work out a deal to prevent Robinson from becoming unrestricted free agent
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This one is tough to take. I get that Jalen, Myles, and Yannick all have to be extended in the near future, but this still sucks. They've managed the cap beautifully during this latest rebuild, but this team is absolutely worse off without Allen Robinson. He's going to get paid, so if they're going to let him go for free, they're better off keeping out of the big FA market for compensatory pick purposes.

 
Mr. Brownstone said:
This one is tough to take. I get that Jalen, Myles, and Yannick all have to be extended in the near future, but this still sucks. They've managed the cap beautifully during this latest rebuild, but this team is absolutely worse off without Allen Robinson. He's going to get paid, so if they're going to let him go for free, they're better off keeping out of the big FA market for compensatory pick purposes.
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And that includes letting Marqise two ####### left hands Lee go, too.

 
It would be nice to know if Jags have had any discussions with Robinson agent and if they plan to actually negotiate thru 3/14.

 
JaxBill said:
It would be nice to know if Jags have had any discussions with Robinson agent and if they plan to actually negotiate thru 3/14.
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I bet it's over. I'll speculate that they tried to re-sign him to a low-ball or incentive-laden contract and he rightfully rejected it.

I'm thinking that they believe that (a) this year is a wash as he comes back from his ACL tear and (b) they werethisclose to going to the Super Bowl without him anyway. 

 
Mr. Brownstone said:
I bet it's over. I'll speculate that they tried to re-sign him to a low-ball or incentive-laden contract and he rightfully rejected it.

I'm thinking that they believe that (a) this year is a wash as he comes back from his ACL tear and (b) they werethisclose to going to the Super Bowl without him anyway. 
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Yeah, Jags probably set a ceiling price for him and then decided they weren't going to bid against themselves.

But letting him walk for nothing isn't the best use of assets either .

 
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